Update on the status of Snake River Subyearling Chinook Migration

• Current Year Passage of PIT-tagged Snake Subs

LGR PIT Detections

LGR Estimated Passage

• Collection Efficiency Estimates• 2005 and Historic Passage Index at LGR• Historic Timing Wild PIT-tags

LGR PIT-tag Detection Summary

Updated Lower Granite Detections and Estimated Pop Passage

srrt Org River Marks LGR Detecs Pct15W USFWS Snake R 9302 1038 11.16%13W NPT Clearwater R 1875 15 0.80%13H NOAA Clearwater R 45790 128 0.28%13H NOAA Snake R 121833 19007 15.60%

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------srrt Org River Marks LGR Pop Est Pct15W USFWS Snake R 9302 Pop Pass LGRWPC (n/.5)/(1-(S%+.2)) 5038 54.16%FPC1 (n/0.5) then (n/0.2) 2723 29.27%FPC2 (n/0.42) then (n/.09) 4351 46.77%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------srrt Org River Marks LGR Pop Est Pct13Ws NPT Clearwater R 1875 Pop Pass LGRWPC (n/.5)/(1-(S%+.2)) 112 5.97%FPC1 (n/0.5) then (n/0.2) 63 3.36%FPC2 (n/0.42) then (n/.09) 111 5.93%

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------srrt Org River Marks LGR Pop Est Pct13H NOAA Clearwater R 45790WPC (n/.5)/(1-(S%+.2)) 1452 3.17%FPC1 (n/0.5) then (n/0.2) 640 1.40%FPC2 (n/0.42) then (n/.09) 1422 3.11%

Collection Efficiency Calculations at LGR

• Compare Methods of Estimating Collection Efficiency/Population Expansion methods

• Cormack-Jolly-Seber

• FPCv1 and v2 memo method

• WPC memo spill expansion method

Methods used to calculate Collection Efficiency at LGR

• FPC Methods – CJS

CElgr =

2

2

22

2

rR

zm

m

2

2

2

2

m

z

r

R Number re-released at LGR

Number of R2 detected below LGR

Number of R1 not seen at LGR detected below LGR

Number of R1 detected at LGR

Methods used to calculate Collection Efficiency at LGR cont.

• FPC Methods – use LGS detects to estimate LGR CE (based on various methods)

X11 = PITs seen at LGR and LGS

X01 = PITs seen at LGS but not LGR

Flgr = proportion of fish removed at LGR (trans, research)

• Project X01 distribution based on X11 travel time distribution at LGS (gamma dist)

• Calculate seasonal weighted CE (weight daily LGS PIT detections)

)X*(F+X

X

01lgr11

11

dailyCE

Methods used to calculate Collection Efficiency at LGR cont.

• WPC - spill expansion method

Daily PIT Passage =

X1 = Daily PIT detects at LGR

FGElgr = 0.5 assumed FGE

• Seasonal Total PIT Passage sum of daily totals

.2)0pill(DailyPctS-1

FGEX

lgr

1

lgr

Range of Total Snake River 15W PIT passage estimates from methods

Method

LGR CE Prior to June 20

LGR CE

After June 20

Estimated total PIT passage

R = 9302, LGR det = 1038

CJS 0.269 0.269 3,858 (41%)

FPC v1 0.50 0.20 4,351 (47%)

FPC v2 0.42 0.09 2,723 (29%)

WPC spill exp 0.33 0.08 4,829 (52%)

Daily estimates of PIT-tag passage at LGR Snake River Wild Subs (15W)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

5/9/

05

5/16

/05

5/23

/05

5/30

/05

6/6/

05

6/13

/05

6/20

/05

6/27

/05

7/4/

05

7/11

/05

7/18

/05

7/25

/05

8/1/

05

8/8/

05

Date

Nu

mb

er o

f Ta

gs

WPC Method

FPC-Method 1

FPC-Method 2

Daily estimates of PIT-tag passage at LGR Clearwater River Wild Subs 13W

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

5/9/05 5/16/05 5/23/05 5/30/05 6/6/05 6/13/05 6/20/05 6/27/05 7/4/05 7/11/05 7/18/05 7/25/05 8/1/05 8/8/05

Date

Est

imat

ed N

um

ber

of

Tag

s

WPC Method

FPC-Method 1

FPC-Method 2

Historic average daily index at LGR compared to 2005 daily index

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

6/1 6/8 6/15 6/22 6/29 7/6 7/13 7/20 7/27 8/3 8/10 8/17 8/24 8/31 9/7 9/14 9/21 9/28

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

0.030

0.035

2005 Daily Index

Historic Daily Average Index

Historic Cumulative Passage Timing LGR CH0

0.0000

0.1000

0.2000

0.3000

0.4000

0.5000

0.6000

0.7000

0.8000

0.9000

1.0000

DATE 6/7 6/14 6/21 6/28 7/5 7/12 7/19 7/26 8/2 8/9 8/16 8/23 8/30 9/6 9/13 9/20 9/27

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Historic wild Snake River PIT-timing at LGR

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

6/1 6/22 7/13 8/3 8/24 9/14 10/5 10/26

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Historic wild Clearwater River PIT-timing at LGR

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

6/1 6/22 7/13 8/3 8/24 9/14 10/5 10/26

200465.68%

200360.00%

200233.33%

200164.44%

200040.00%

199964.71%

199874.47%

199543.33%

D?