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Upward and Upward and onward onward A study of Scots out-migrationA study of Scots out-migration
from a global city from a global city
Allan Findlay, Donald Houston, Allan Findlay, Donald Houston, Colin Mason, David McCollum Colin Mason, David McCollum
and Richard Harrison. and Richard Harrison.
Research contextResearch context
ESRC Scottish Demography ESRC Scottish Demography Programme. Programme.
ESRC RES – 342-25-009ESRC RES – 342-25-009
ONS Longitudinal Study: 30048AONS Longitudinal Study: 30048A
Background Background
Traditional flows of young, talented Traditional flows of young, talented individuals from periphery to economic individuals from periphery to economic core regions. core regions.
London as a key global city.London as a key global city. South East England (including London) South East England (including London)
as the UK’s ‘escalator region’ – as the UK’s ‘escalator region’ – Fielding (1992), Champion (2004). Fielding (1992), Champion (2004).
Transients and the global city – Transients and the global city – Conradson and Latham (2005). Conradson and Latham (2005).
Research aims: Research aims:
Investigating the factors behind the Investigating the factors behind the declining Scots born population of declining Scots born population of London.London.
Comparing the occupational mobility Comparing the occupational mobility of Scots in South East England with of Scots in South East England with other groups and places. other groups and places.
Exploring return migration from the Exploring return migration from the South East to Scotland. South East to Scotland.
Scots leave London Scots leave London Scots born population of London and the South East
Location1991 2001 % change
Greater London 113,117 108,602 -4%
South East including London
301,586 261,373 -13%
South East excluding London
188,469 152,771 -19%
Source: CASWEB census dissemination unit.
Migration flows from London to Scotland, selected years.
Year1985 1991 1995 2001 2005
Total flow 5,579 7,766 6,418 8,235 8,200
Source: NHSCR
Migration from Scotland to Greater London and the South East, 1991 and 2001
Location1991 2001 % change
Greater London 7,041 7,529 +7%
SE excl London 7,722 7,525 -3%
Source: UK National Census one year migration data.
Scots on the escalator Scots on the escalator Data relating to proportions of the English and Scottish born populations of England in socio-economic groups 1 and 2 at the 2001 census.
Population% of population
in socio-economic group 1 (higher managerial & professional)
% of population in socio-economic
group 2 (lower managerial & professional)
% of population in socio-economic
groups 1 & 2
Scots resident in SE
21.67 35.09 56.76
Scots resident elsewhere in
England
15.00 30.92 45.92
English resident in SE
13.90 29.13 43.03
English resident elsewhere in
England
9.57 24.38 33.95
Source: Calculated from the UK Longitudinal Study
Continuing career gains Continuing career gains from migration to the from migration to the
South East South East Occupational mobility of Scottish and English born residents of England 1991-2001.
Population Occupational mobility into groups 1-2 (in %)*
Scots resident in SE 25.85
Scots resident elsewhere in England 20.66
English resident in SE 21.95
English resident elsewhere in England 17.84
Residents of England overall 18.98Source: Calculated from the UK Longitudinal Study*expressed as a percentage of all people in each row of the table.
Variables tested Pearson Chi-square value
Significant at 0.01 the level?
Place of birth versus occupational into mobility
groups 1-2
20.954 Yes
Place of residence versus occupational mobility into
groups 1-2
325.541 Yes
Place of birth versus place of residence.
44.483 Yes
Log linear modelling of Log linear modelling of occupational mobilityoccupational mobility
Once place of residence is included, Once place of residence is included, additional variance is explained by additional variance is explained by place of birth. place of birth.
A third significant effect is evident A third significant effect is evident involving place of birth and place of involving place of birth and place of residence. residence.
Not in retirement but in Not in retirement but in early careerearly career
.
Age structure of Scots returnees from SE (including London) by destination 2001.
Age cohort
All Scotland
Edinburgh Glasgow Aberdeen Northern rural
Scotland
Other council areas
0-14 11.56 7.25 11.09 12.17 10.65 13.28
15-29 33.30 44.40 4 0.27 41.27 25.03 30.45
30-44 32.65 34.35 35.26 34.39 29.53 32.45
45-59 13.42 9.29 8.66 5.29 22.28 13.36
60-74 6.89 3.56 3.34 3.70 10.10 7.92
75+ 2.18 1.15 1.37 3.17 2.41 2.94
Source: Calculated from special tabulations provided by GROS
Propensity to return Propensity to return
No relationship by NS-SeC.No relationship by NS-SeC. Strong relationship by education Strong relationship by education
level. level.
Destination selectivity Destination selectivity by class and education by class and education
Proportion of return migrants from SE qualified to degree level
020406080
Scotlandoverall
Edinburgh Glasgow Aberdeen Northernrural
Scotland
Othercouncilareas
Returnees to
% o
f to
tal
Proportion of return migrants from SE in NS-SeC 1 and 2
0102030405060
Scotlandoverall
Edinburgh Glasgow Aberdeen Northernrural
Scotland
Othercouncilareas
Returnees to
% o
f to
tal
Attitudes to returnAttitudes to return
Educated Scots more likely than Educated Scots more likely than other skilled immigrants in South other skilled immigrants in South East to return to area of origin?East to return to area of origin?
Likelihood of return to area of origin, degree qualified in migrants in SE.
ResponseScots Other immigrants
Possibly 31.0% 26.3%
Definitely 17.2% 13.2%
Total 48.2% 39.5%
Source: authors’ survey
Map showing location of Map showing location of the 4 survey areas; the 4 survey areas;
Lambeth, Merton, Oxford Lambeth, Merton, Oxford and Milton Keynes. and Milton Keynes.
Conclusions Conclusions Declining Scots population of South East Declining Scots population of South East
England despite continued attraction of England despite continued attraction of career opportunities in South East.career opportunities in South East.
Increasing migration (including Increasing migration (including returnees) to Scotland from the South returnees) to Scotland from the South East. East.
Many returnees are young, highly Many returnees are young, highly educated and in active employment.educated and in active employment.
Need for re-theorisation of service class Need for re-theorisation of service class migration in relation to global cities. migration in relation to global cities.