Urban planning and transport sustainability in developing countries compared to industrialized countries

27 October 2012 Wendell Cox Demographia

AGRICULTURE

even with urban expansion, there are

"adequate reserves of cultivatable land

sufficient to feed the planet in perpetuity

• Dimensions of Sustainability • Behavioral Strategies

(Compact City Policies) • Technological Strategies

(Green Technology) • Opportunities & Possibilities

Mendoza River, Argentina

O U T L I N E

WHAT IS SUSTAINABILITY

SUSTAINABILITY

…development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.

PROBLEM OF ONE DIMENSIONAL

TRANSPORT PLANNING

Manila

Mumbai: Airport East Slum

–The raison d’être of large cities is the increasing return to scale inherent to large labor markets. The cities’ economic efficiency requires, therefore, avoiding any spatial fragmentation of labor markets.

Why Cities Grow (Their Purpose) ALAIN BERTUAD, FORMER WORLD BANK PLANNER

Democratization of Prosperity ASSOCIATION BETWEEN MOBILITY & AFFLUENCE

Chicago

Reduced Minority Unemployment

With Cars U. of California

PRUD’HOMME Mobility Improves

Productivity U. Of Paris

HARTGEN-FIELDS Mobility Improves

Productivity

“Time is Money”

• . The cities of developing Africa may have long since become too spatially large for walking to suffice as a principal mode of access without hobbling economic growth and ingraining high levels of poverty.

African Cities are Too Large for Walking ALREADY TOO SPATIALLY LARGE

PRE-REQUISITES TO ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY

Dimensions of Sustainability

DIMENSIONS OF SUSTAINABILITY

POVERTY ALLEVIATION Does the strategy contribute to poverty alleviation? COST EFFECTIVE SUSTAINABILITY Can the strategy reduce GHG emissions at a cost within the $50 ceiling per ton?

ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY Is the strategy without serious potential for reducing economic growth or increasing poverty? POLITICAL SUSTAINABILITY Is the strategy without serious potential for public rejection or evasion? ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY Does the strategy have the potential to achieve the GHG emission reduction objective? OVERALL EVALUATION

POVERTY ALLEVIATION

Rio +20 Declaration

Eradicating poverty is the greatest global challenge facing the world today and an indispensable requirement for sustainable development.

16 Dhaka

Economics: A History of Poverty CANNOT TAKE AFFLUENCE FOR GRANTED

$0 $5,000

$10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Africa

Latin America

Asia

Argentina

GDP/Capita 2000$ United States

W. Europe

Japan

Economies Vary by Extent of Poverty THERE ARE WEALTHY IN ALL NATIONS

Australia

Rio de Janeiro: Rich & Poor

• Few low income central city residents in Boston could reach high growth suburban employment areas within one hour by transit.

–Federal Transit Administration

• Given the strong connection between cars and employment outcomes, auto ownership programs may be one of the more promising options and one worthy of expansion

• –Blumenberg & Waller (Brookings Institution)

Personal Mobility Alleviates Poverty HOW PERSONAL MOBILITY EMPOWERS

Houston

• In most cases, the shortest distance between a poor person and a job is along a line driven in a car

– Waller & Hughes (Progressive Policy Institute)

• If automobiles were available to all African American households, the gap between non-Hispanic-white and African-American unemployment would be reduced by nearly one-half.

– Raphael & Stoll (UC-Berkeley)

Personal Mobility Alleviates Poverty HOW PERSONAL MOBILITY EMPOWERS

Portland

$0$5,000

$10,000$15,000$20,000

$25,000$30,000$35,000

$40,000$45,000

1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

WALKING

TRANSIT

AUTO

Mobility Associated with Affluence MORE ACCESS, MORE ECONOMIC GROWTH

Highest GDP/Capita (2005$)

Changsha, China

From OECD Data

COST EFFECTIVE SUSTAINABILITY

Shenyang, China

Cost Effectiveness is Crucial UN IPCC MAXIMUM RANGE PER METRIC TON

Market Less than

$15

McKinsey Average

$17

Above $50 is wasteful Detracts from efforts to reduce GHGs

& unnecessarily reduces employment & economic growth

“What we Don’t Like” GHG Policy

Back To the 17th

Century?

The Cost per Ton Removed

Not an Issue Of

Fair Share By

Sector

California High Speed Rail $1,800 to $10,000 PER GHG TON

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

IPCC: Maximum Freeway Performance

Bus/Land Use/Pricing

Rail/Land Use/Pricing

Annual Cost/GHG Tonne Removed

Transit/Land Use Strategies Expensive COST PER TON REMOVED: SAN FRANCISCO

Source: 2035 Plan

ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY

ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY

Economic Growth

is a Necessity

FOR SOCIAL COHESION

• Minimizing Travel Time & Economic Growth – Congestion costs – Productivity

• Research: More Job Access in Fixed Time Means

Better Urban Economic Performance – Prud’homme et al (U. of Paris) – Cervero (U. of California) – Hartgen/Fields (U. of North Carolina) – Cox

Personal Mobility: Increases Economic Growth ACCESS TO LARGER NUMBER OF JOBS

Lisbon

POLITICAL SUSTAINABILITY

Rajendra K. Pachauri CHAIR, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE

• Can you imagine 400 million people who do not have a light bulb in their homes?" … You cannot, in a democracy, ignore some of these realities and as it happens with the resources of coal that India has, we really don't have any choice but to use coal.

First world

Europe: Protests Against Austerity ATHENS: 18 OCTOBER 2012

Protests Against Raising Retirement Age FRANCE: 18 OCTOBER 2012

London demonstrations

London: Call for General Strike TUBE CLOSURES: 20 OCTOBER 2012

MUST BE POL ACC

• NO ONE SHOULD THINK THE JOB WIL BE EASY

Political Acceptability is Necessary

36 36

Truncated Freeway: Ciqikou Ancient

Town

ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY

How to get the best results

MORE & LESS DEVELOPED WORLD

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

Billi

ons

World Population: 1950-2100 BY INCOME: ACTUAL AND PROJECTED

More Developed World

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

Mill

ions

China Population: 1950-2100

ACTUAL AND PROJECTED

Data from UN Population Prospects:

2010 Revision

0.2

3.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Higher Income World Lower & Middle Income World

Chan

ge in

Pop

ulat

ion:

Bill

ions

Population Growth: 2010-2100

HIGHER INCOME, LOWER & MIDDLE INCOME WORLD

Higher income world: $20,000 & Over

Calculated from UN Population Prospects:

2010 Revision

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Tota

l Fer

tility

Rat

e

Five Years Ended

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Nigeria Niger Congo (Dem. Rep.) South Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa: Total Fertility Rate REGION & SELECTED GEOGRAPHIES: 1950-2010

Data from UN Population Prospects:

2010 Revision

Autos in All Western Europe & North America MAJORITY OF MOTORIZED TRAVEL IS AUTO IN ALL CITIES

Example PORTLAND

Transit +Cycle+Walk Market Share Down

9% 1980-2011

Assumptions (Simplified) BEHAVIORAL STRATEGIES AND THE REALITY

• We shall all have to – Give up our cars & switch to public transport – Move from the suburbs to the urban cores

• Yet no serious research indicates that the likely greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction objectives can be met by these strategies

Behavioural Strategies COMPACT CITY POLICY (DENSIFICATION)

Changing how we live and work Seoul

Urban form policies can have important impacts on local environmental quality, economy, crowding, and social equity, but their influence on energy consumption and land use is very modest; compact development should not automatically be associated with the preferred spatial growth strategy.

R² = 0.8856

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

Vehicle Hours/KM2.

Population/ KM2

Hong Kong

Higher Density Means More Traffic Congestion DENSITY & TRAFFIC VOLUMES: INTERNATIONAL

Congestion & Excess GHG Emissions 90 URBAN AREAS: CHANGE 1982-2007

More Research Needed

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

9+ Floors 4-8 Floors <4 Floors Townhouse Detached

Multi-Unit Single Family

Source: Energy Australia Study

Annual GHG Tons/Capita

Study: Multi-Unit GHG Emissions Higher INCLUDING COMMON ENERGY EMISSIONS

No US data HUGE RESEARCH GAP

Sydney

COMPACT CITY PROJECTIONS:

PROBABLY OPTIMISTIC

Suburban Toronto (Newmarket)

Statistics Canada: High Density 6+ Miles

From Downtown Relies on Cars

High Density Outside Core TRAVEL PATTERNS NO DIFFERENT THAN LOW DENSITY

Welwyn

Example Average Work Trip Distance

Welwyn Residents 2X Town Diameter

New Towns & Self-Containment (UK) BALANCE ACHIEVED – RESIDENTS WORK ELSEWHERE

Average Work Trip Length: 2001

Rio de Janeiro Favela (Rocinha)

Jobs Housing Balance: Favela in Rio GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO SEE: WCTRS 2013

100% 95%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Population Density Travel per Household

Chan

ge

Densification and Travel HIGHER INCOME, LOWER & MIDDLE INCOME WORLD

Per Ewing & Cervero (2010)

Calculated from UN Population Prospects:

2010 Revision

...the prominence given modal shift policies is at odds with indications that most modal shift policies achieve much lower abatement levels than measures focusing on fuel efficiency.

Little Hope: To Shift People from Cars to Transit EUROPEAN CONFERENCE OF MINISTERS OF TRANSPORT

Central Business District (CBD) Jobs SHARE OF METROPOLITAN AREA

CBD Outside CBD

Shanghai

16%

84%

59%

41%

Suburban Transit Access: Slow & Limited EXCEPT TO LARGEST COMMERCIAL CORES: CASE OF PARIS

Jobs Accessible in 1 Hour Not

Accessible

Jobs Accessible

Not Accessible

Auto Transit

Paris

Transit’s “Last Kilometer” Problem ELSEWHERE TRANSIT IS SLOWER FOR MORE TRIPS

Annual Cost: More than gross

annual income of metropolitan area

An auto competitive system for Portland?

800 Meter Metro Grid Required

The Modeling Record HUGE FORECAST ERRORS ARE LIKELY

33%

67%

New Ridership Excess Above Inflation

Calculated from

NTDB data

Most New US $ Goes to Excess Costs 1982-2006: INFLATION ADJUSTED

Tokyo Rail Transit Map

Anthony Downs (Brookings Institution

Economist)

Principle of a

Competitive Land Supply

St. Louis

Economic Principle Rationing (Scarcity) Raises Prices

Economic Research is Virtually Unanimous

Historic Median Multiple: 3.0 or Less

Median House Price/ Median Household Income

CONCERN….

….that in the absence of ample and

accessible land for expansion on the urban

periphery, artificial shortages of residential

land will quickly extinguish any hope

that housing will remain affordable,

especially for the urban poor..."

House Price Escalation: The Big Problem ECONOMICS: SCARCITY INCREASES PRICES

Paul Krugman,

Princeton University 2008 Nobel Prize in Economics

Housing bubble where restricted land use, not where less restrictions No bubble where more suburbanization

Land Rationing is the Issue DESTROYS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY

Donald Brash, Governor, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

1988-2002 Introduction to

4th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey

... the affordability of housing is overwhelmingly a function of just one thing, the extent to which governments place artificial restrictions on the supply of residential land.

RAW LAND COST DIFFERENCES UK Up to 500 times (Leunig): Same Area

Portland & Auckland: 11 times: Across the Road

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Liberal Markets Compact City Markets

2007 Peak 1980-2000 Average

Median House Price Increases RELATIVE TO HOUSEHOLD INCOMES

Median Multiple: Median House Price/

Median Household Income

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1950 1960 1970 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Med

ian

Mul

tiple

Less Restrictive Markets More Restrictive Markets: Outside California More Restrictive Markets: California

1950 – 1970: From Census Bureau 1980-2009: From Harvard University

2010: From Demographia Annual Data Begins at 1980

Housing Affordability 1950-2011 MAJOR US METROPOLITAN AREAS: MEDIAN MULTIPLE

Median Multiple: Median House Price divided by Median Household Income

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Detroit Atlanta

Phoenix Cincinnati Cleveland

Las Vegas Kansas City

Columbus Minneapolis-STP

Indianapolis St. Louis

Pittsburgh Orlando

Dallas-Ft Worth Houston

Nashville Sacramento

Charlotte Riverside-SB Tampa-STP

Virginia Beach Birmingham

Austin Dublin

Chicago Baltimore

Philadelphia Milwaukee

Washington (DC) Denver Miami

Portland Leeds

Seattle Manchester

Montreal Boston

Toronto Los Angeles

Perth Brisbane

San Diego New York Auckland

London Exurbs London (GLA)

Adelaide San Francisco

San Jose Melbourne

Sydney Vancouver Hong Kong

Less Restrictive Land Use Regulation More Restrictive Land Use Regulation

Markets above 1,500,000 population Except in Australia & New Zealand:

Above 1,000,000 population

Housing Affordability & Land Regulation LARGER METROPOLITAN MARKETS

Median Multiple

“Costs of Sprawl-2000”: House Prices REALITY V. PROJECTION: 2000-2025: PER UNIT

-$20,000$0

$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000

$100,000$120,000$140,000$160,000$180,000

2007 2000 2025

Actual Increase Relative to Other Markets (2007$)

Los Angeles

London

Reduced employment in Amsterdam/Rotterdam

-Vermuelen & Ommeren Netherlands Bureau of Econ. Rsch.

Strong Land Regulation: Less Growth EUROPEAN & US RESEARCH

Higher unemployment in the UK

-Mayo & Angel World Bank

20% less job growth than expected in

metropolitan areas with strongest

land use regulation -Raven Saks

US Federal Reserve Board

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

White-Non-Hispanic African American Hispanic

Minority Home Ownership Trails GAP UNLIKELY TO NARROW WITH SMART GROWTH

Technological Strategies

GREEN TECHNOLOGY

Chicago Reducing GHG emissions from how we live and work

http://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/data/nBackIssue20080617_01.html

Zero Emission House: Japan 2,100 SQUARE FEET: DETACHED

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

1970 2008

VOC CO NOX Driving

Air Pollution & Driving in the US GROSS EMISSIONS AND TOTAL DRIVING: 1970-2008

Figure 79

Calculated from EPA and Federal Highway

Administration data

Caution: This is gross data, not

per mile data

Co-sponsors included: NRDC, EDF, Shell

McKinsey & Conference Board NO RADICAL LIFESTYLE CHANGES NEEDED

…no change in thermostat settings or appliance use, no downsizing of vehicles,

home or commercial space and traveling

the same mileage

…no shift to denser housing

Exurban Manila

Coming to Terms with

Global Urban Expansion

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Coverage Ratio 45 Minutes

Jobs

Acc

essi

ble

Transit in Walking Distance

Mass Transit Coverage Ratio v. Access US METROPOLITAN AREAS: BEST TRANSIT SYSTEMS

0

50

100

150

200

250

Transit (Bus, Urban & Commuter Rail)

2012 Cars & SUVs 2035 Cars & SUVs 2012 Best MPG Car

CO

2 G

ram

s pe

r Pas

seng

er M

ile Calculated from US Department Of Energy, Federal Transit Administration

And ### data

CO2 Emissions: Transit & Automobiles PRESENT AND FUTURE

Figure 86

Better Technology is Already Here MOST EFFICIENT HYBRIDS

Suzhou

European Parliament MPG Requirement 58 MPG BY 2020

Paris: 12 Lane Freeway

AGRICULTURE

even with urban expansion, there are

"adequate reserves of cultivatable land

sufficient to feed the planet in perpetuity

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Other Rural: Open Space Outside the Human Footprint

Rural: Agriculture

Urban Development

Urban & Rural Land: United States 1950-2000

Rural Development

• GHG emissions objectives can only be met by a vibrant economy.

• Behavioural Strategies (compact city policies)

– Focus: Changing behavior (indirect) – Little potential to reduce GHG emissions – Would do so at exorbitant cost – Could seriously damage the economy & increase poverty.

• Technological Strategies (green technology)

– Focus: Reducing GHG intensity of how we live (direct) – Potential to meet virtually any GHG reduction objectives – Much lower cost to the economy.

The Thesis…. IT’S THE ECONOMY…

Shenzhen, China

OPPORTUNITIES & POSSIBILITIES

Potential: Volkswagen: 235 MPG Car LIMITED EUROPEAN MARKETING BEGINS IN 2010

Obama 150 MPG car by 2015

-90%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

EU 2025 Anticipated Standard VW 1-Litre Car 2015 National Standard: Baseline

GHG Intensity: China Opportunities 2010-2050 LIGHT VEHICLES

Pictures/compressed air car

Compressed Air Car: Tata to Build ZERO GHG EMISSION POTENTIAL

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/fuel/9619269/British-engineers-produce-amazing-petrol-from-air-technology.html

• Producing gasoline from CO2 – http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/19/science/19carb.html?ref=

science • Alternative Fuels Production by Yeast

– http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16989-yeast-and-bacterium-turned-into-gasoline-factory.html

• Cellulosic ethanol • Plug in vehicles • Green Car Sharing (Paris, London & Austin)

– http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23656098-details/Boris+plans+electric+car+hire+scheme+for+London/article.do

– http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS155367+26-Mar-2009+PRN20090326

• Telecommuting – http://www.itif.org/files/Telecommuting.pdf

Many Opportunities EVIDENCES OF HUMAN INGENUITY

Bosporus-Black Sea

CONCLUSION

Andes, Chile

Manila

POVERTY IS NOT AN OPTION

Conclusion THE POTENTIAL FOR SUCCESS

• Behavioral strategies could fail – Not environmentally sustainable – Intrusiveness could be devastating to

economic growth and increase poverty – Not economically sustainable – Not necessary

• Technological strategies: has the potential to succeed – Advantage: Allow economic growth & job

creation while meeting GHG objectives

Planners People

Rail Station: Suburban Paris