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Quantifying Sustainability Quantifying Sustainability Quantifying Sustainability Quantifying Sustainability

Performance to Support InvestmentPerformance to Support InvestmentPerformance to Support InvestmentPerformance to Support Investment

Lynn Lynn Lynn Lynn Reid, Principal Reid, Principal Reid, Principal Reid, Principal ModellerModellerModellerModeller

David Spector, Principal PlannerDavid Spector, Principal PlannerDavid Spector, Principal PlannerDavid Spector, Principal Planner

CDM Smith

GrEEEn Cities: The Questions We Ask

• “Single-Sector” questions:

– At what scale should sanitation services be developed?

– How can reliability of the energy grid be improved?

• “Multi-Sector” questions:

– What impact do various sanitation solutions have on social

welfare and equity or energy reliability?

• “Big Picture” questions:

– What portfolio of investments & policies will create the

most resource-efficient city?

– How can both climate vulnerability and adaptation

investments be maximized?

– How can ADB prioritize investment?

Less complex. We

have tools.

More complex. We

need new tools.

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Decisions Amidst Urban Complexity

“Catalytic urban investments

need to be planned and

executed in the context of

better analytics and strategic

focus”

“GrEEEn Cities” indicators exist

and can be measured. With

new tools, they can also be

simulated, before investments

are made.

CDM Smith Urban Simulation Model (USM)

Key Analysis Functions

Integrated Analysis:

• How choices affect other sectors, the entire urban

system, the environment, and economics

Temporal Analysis:

• Dynamic analysis of resource supplies vs demands at

fine time steps;

• Assess changed future conditions, including climate

scenarios

• Inventory current conditions

Spatial Analysis:

• Explore impacts of urban form on resource supply

and demands

• Test centralized vs. decentralized scenarios

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Embedding Simulation in the

Integrated Planning Process

Envision infrastructure, housing and

technology investments to ‘feed’ into

model

Plan and

layouts, “Maps”

Ou

tpu

t Me

tric

Decision Variable

Alternative C

Alternative A

Alternative B

Target

Output, Analytics, and

Decision Support

Simulate performance of urban form

and suites of GrEEEn solutions

Model Input ApplicationGIS Application Systems Dynamics

Simulator

Output Tools

Planners, Engineers, and

Architects

Staff from Public Agencies

/ Owners/Developers

Key Performance

Indicators

DMC’s Public Agencies, Investors, ADB and

other Funding and Lending Agencies

Iterative Input and Feedback in Design and Planning Process

Define GrEEEn solution

attributes

Define a Suite of Performance Indicators

• Represent triple bottom line objectives

• Based on current policy or future desires

• Justify case for funding and GrEEN solution prioritization

+ ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP

ECONOMIC GROWTH

+ SOCIAL EQUITY

Triple Bottom Line / 3E

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Define Spatial Plans

• Outline current layouts in GIS

• Identify urban form alternatives:

– Infill vs. sprawl

– Alternative solutions for informal development

• Evaluation of alternatives against KPIs

ONSITE

STORAGE

Develop Green Solutions

• Policies and strategies

– Building codes

• Infrastructure alternatives

– Light rail or buses?

• Green technology applications

– Greywater reuse

– Waste to energy

From Singapore Water

Sensitive Urban Design Plan

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Multi-Sector Simulation

• Simulate suites of GrEEEn solutions under defined

urban build out scenarios

• Decision makers use the results to:– Understand current conditions

– Develop new projects,

– Refine projects

Output and Decision Support

• Provides output to assess projected KPI achievement

• Can inform both GrEEEn City Action plan priorities

and preferred urban form scenario

Site Suitability Map

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How can decision makers use the

Urban Systems Model?

• What are the benefits of sustainable development policies under

various scenarios

• Tradeoffs of solutions with regard to sectors and/or targets?

• What triple bottom line performance targets are aggressive yet

achievable?

• Best return on investment?

• Priorities for implementation?

CleanTech Park, SNG

Macquarie University, AUS

Punggol EcoTown, SNG

Investments Supported by Better Analytics

Integrated Urban Development & Urban Planning

Bu

sin

ess

a

s U

sua

l

Policies

Strategies

Sector Plans

Regulations

Institutions

Governance

Civil Society

Private

Sector

Gre

en

Cit

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ctio

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lan

En

vir

on

me

nt

Eco

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Su

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Analysis, Synthesis, Communication, Decision Support

Reduce uncertainty in meeting 3E metrics.

Quantify environmental, financial, and social benefits before investments

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Lynn ReidLynn ReidLynn ReidLynn Reid, reidlb@cdmsmith.com

David SpectorDavid SpectorDavid SpectorDavid Spector, spectorda@cdmsmith.com

CDM SmithCDM SmithCDM SmithCDM Smith