Urban to Rural Evacuation

A Closer Look at Pennsylvania’s Northern Tier

By Saskia Cohick

Definition

Urban to Rural Evacuation: The spontaneous movement of a population

from an urban area to a suburban or rural area in the event of a natural or man-made disaster.

Examples: Hurricane Katrina, Three Mile Island (TMI), September 11 attacks

Background

North Central Task Force (NCTF) Previous research potential evacuee surge Emergency Management Agency (EMA)

professionals found research predictions inadequate

Reasons Experience (TMI) Population characteristics

Map of NCTF

Previous Research

http://www.cei.psu.edu/evac/about/index.html Web page includes a web based mapping

evacuation planning tool Links to additional tools to assist emergency

evacuation planning

Methods & Assumptions Previous Research Previous Research:

Nature of event Likeliness to evacuate Relative appeal of rural area

Interviews with 17 informants Previous experiences

National data sets Used hotel/motel availability

Methods & Assumptions current research

What is the draw of each county Interviews performed with EMA or 911

Directors/Coordinators and other emergency responders TMI experiences

Find approach that would utilize best data sources from counties for prediction Household/property ownership information

Availability of GIS data in NCTF

Full Capabilities:

Road, Buildings, Hydrology, Parcels, Land Use, Zoning

Partial Capabilities:

Completed roads, buildings, hydrology and working on

parcels and other land classifications

Limited Capabilities:

Working on completion of basic planimetric layers

Results from the current tool……Exploring resources

Results from the current tool…….Dirty Bomb with % change in population

Results from the current tool…….Dirty Bomb with number of evacuees

What caused the differences?

TMI incident. Respondents indicated total exhaustion of resources.

Food and water resources exhausted

Insufficient housing for all individuals

Fuel shortages reported across the region

Cause for concern……….

Limited Medical Services

Over 93% emergency responders volunteer

Infrastructure

40% state owned lands – mainly wooded areas

Even if you can’t find them, they will still come..

Improve estimates Number of evacuees Location of evacuees

Create a prediction scenario with structure (building) based information

Obtain more accurate data # of owners/parcel State owned land information

Unique considerations…

Non-resident land owners

Evacuate to known locations

Hunting camps and summer or second homes prevalent

The numbers Total number of residents (2008 estimates) = R Average number of residents per addressable structure ( 2000

census) = Ar Number of structures occupied by full time residents = RS Total number of addressable structures = A Number of seasonal structures = SS Number of non-residents possible= NR

(R / Ar)=RS A - RS = SSSS * Ar = NR

Expected Evacuees per County

County Pittsburgh Harrisburg Philadelphia Total

Potter 1184 156 0 1340

Tioga 0 168 0 168

Bradford 0 194 4984 5178

Sullivan 0 172 4417 4589

Lycoming 0 233 5675 5908

Union 0 280 4172 4452

Clinton 1485 209 0 1694

On-Line Tool Results

Numbers of Evacuees per Square Mile

County Evacuees Area Evac/SqMi

Potter 1340 1081.17 1.24

Tioga 168 1133.73 0.15

Bradford 5178 1150.67 4.50

Sullivan 4589 449.94 10.20

Lycoming 5908 1234.85 4.78

Union 4452 316.73 14.06

Clinton 1694 890.87 1.90

What GIS data layers can help refine calculations Parcel layer

Road Network

State Land Capacity

Other accommodations

Considerations for next portion of work…

Who is coming? Owners (plus others?)

What will they bring? Supplies Pets

How will they get here? Roads adequate

Where will they be? Evacuee population dispersion

Thank you!

Special thanks to Doug Miller, PSU Great appreciation to all involved counties who

provided data and assistance John Hetrick, Joe Gerhart - Potter County Kim Barto, Sullivan County Denny Colegrove, Rob Schwarz – Tioga County Sue Reese – Union County Jim Watson – Clinton County Scott Molnar – Bradford County Barry Hutchins – Lycoming County

More thanks…….

Thanks also to original researchers: Tom Briggs, NORC at the University of

Chicago Michael Meit, MA, MPH, NORC at the

Univeristy of Chicago Dr. Donald Rowe, PH.D., Public health

Liaison, School of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Buffalo

Stephen Crawford, Penn State University Center for Environmental Informatics.