URBAN TRANSPORT,

SUSTAINABILITY AND THE ECONOMY

WHAT DRIVES THE ROLE OF RAILWAYS

IN URBAN TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT?

Dr. Andreas Kopp World Bank, GP Transport and ICT

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Overview

1. The richer countries are, the greater are differences in transport energy use

2. Sustainability from a transport perspective: Without modal shift transport will continue to have high oil demand

3. Top ranking energy efficient countries have high shares of public transport and high shares of rail in cities.

4. The role of urban rail: High population density pays off high fixed costs

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Figure 1. Countries have a choice: energy consumption in road transport can be low at high per capita incomes

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SUSTAINABILITY FROM A TRANSPORT PERSPECTIVE: TRANSPORT WITHOUT MODAL SHIFT IS NOT TO CONTRIBUTE TO FALLING OIL PRICES

• Focus on car policies in global energy policies

• Scenarios of transport futures without modal shift do not offer the perspective of decreasing global fossil fuel demand

• Both regulatory and pricing scenarios do not achieve a deep reduction in fuel use in transport

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WITHOUT POLICY CHANGE: TRANSPORT DEMAND FOR OIL WILL GROW Without policy action the sector will become the dominant consumer of fossil fuels

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Oil consumption increases in the medium term… and in the long

Source: IEA (2009). Source: Clarke (2007).

OPTIMISTIC REGULATORY SCENARIO FOR CAR TECHNOLOGY TO STABILIZE GHG CONCENTRATION

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CARBON PRICING TO STABILIZE GHG CONCENTRATIONS WILL LEAD TO STEEPLY INCREASING FUEL PRICES

Carbon price paths depend on biofuels and CCS

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STABILIZING CARBON PRICES WILL NOT AVOID

INCREASING OIL DEMAND UNTIL 2050

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Source: Clarke and Calvin (2008).

REASONS FOR SUSTAINED EXPANSION IN OIL DEMAND

• Limited substitution opportunities of fossil fuels in individual mobility

• Strong increase in motorization without appropriate measures to induce modal shift

• Neglect of policies and investment to change the modal composition of demand

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COSTS FOR INDIVIDUAL TRANSPORT SHAPE CITIES’ SIZE AND DENSITY

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Transport costs, city size and land rent gradient

land rent

distance from center

higher urban transport costs, high aggl. economies

lower urban transport costs

DENSITY AND COMPETITIVE POSITION OF MODES

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Removal of fuel subsidies, and implementation of fiscal signals on external costs move

cutting points for bus and rail to the left, because of their higher social costs.

r a i l bus

car

average costs

Intensity of use

Local External Costs Dominate Individual Mobility

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DENSITY AND SHARE OF URBAN RAIL

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000

Share of trips to work by public rail (%)

NATIONAL ENERGY INTENSITIES ARE REFLECTED IN HIGH PUBLIC TRANSPORT AND RAIL SHARES

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SUMMARY

• Countries have a policy choice: Differences in energy efficiency are large in high income countries

• Energy efficiency is achieved by a high share of public transport in cities, and a high share of rail passenger transport

• Energy efficiency generates health benefits (reduced local air pollution and accidents) and substantial fiscal surplus

• Rail transport relies on intense demand of large and dense cities to justify the high fixed investment

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Thank you!

Please send questions or suggestions to

akopp@worldbank.org

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