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Urbanisation A global trend
Urbanisation
A global trend
Global Urbanisation 1950 - 2050
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision,
http://esa.un.org/wup2009/unup/
Source: State of the World's Cities 2010/2011 - Cities for All: Bridging the Urban Dividehttp://www.unhabitat.org/pmss/listItemDetails.aspx?publicationID=2917
Cities for All: Bridging the Urban Divide
• 50% of the World’s population live in cities• Chaotic urbanisation leads to the
formation and growth of slums• “Bridging the Urban Divide”• 4 critical dimensions of cities: – Economic– Social– Political– Cultural
• From the report:1. Urban Trends2. The Urban Divide3. Policy Implications
Cities for All: Bridging the Urban Divide
1. Urban Trends• Urbanization: A Positive Force for
Transformation • The Wealth of Cities• Slums: Good News is Shadowed by
Bad News
1. Urban Trends• Urbanization: A Positive Force for
Transformation– 2 factors which will either bridge or
exacerbate the urban divide:• The merging of settlements to create massive
urban areas:– Mega-regions: e.g Hong Kong-Shenzen-Guangzhou:
120 million people– Urban corridors: Ibadan-Lagos-Accra: 600 kilometres
through 4 countries in West Africa– City-regions: Metropolitan Sao Paolo: 8,000 km2, 16.4
million people
1. Urban Trends• Urbanization: A Positive Force for
Transformation– 2 factors which will either bridge or
exacerbate the urban divide:• The merging of settlements to create
massive urban areas• Movement of people to “satellite” cities and
suburban neighbourhoods:– More affordable– Lower density housing– (possibly) Improved quality of life
1. Urban Trends• The Wealth of Cities– Prosperity of nations linked to prosperity
of their cities– Clustering of cities can lead to further
growth and development– Urbanisation can play a positive role in
poverty reduction, however poor policy can negate this and lead to a local concentration of poor people
1. Urban Trends• Slums: Good News is Shadowed by Bad News– In developing countries urban growth has been
strongly associated with poverty and slum growth– In the past decade there has been some success in
moving people out of slum conditions:• Asia: lives of 174 million slum dwellers improved• Africa: lives of 24 million slum dwellers improved• Latin America and Caribbean: lives of 30 million slum
dwellers improved– However this progress has not been enough to
counter the demographic expansion in informal settlements in the developing world.
2. The Urban Divide• Urban division is usually characterised by
coinciding disparities along economic, social, cultural and political barriers
• From the report:– Income Inequality in Cities: Contrasting Numbers – Space Inequality: The Poverty Trap – Inequality of Opportunities – The Social Divide:
• Hunger in cities • The health divide• Education: Opportunities and inequalities
2. The Urban Divide• Income Inequality in Cities: Contrasting
Numbers: • Generally lower in developed countries,
however there was an increase from mid-1980s to 2005
• Declining in Latin America and Caribbean, although remains quite high
• Trends in Africa mixed, although rates are generally high
• In Asia the economic urban divide is widening
2. The Urban Divide• Space Inequality: The Poverty Trap – Poorer urban residents (often slum
residents) are often cut off from the city:• Longer commuting times• Higher transportation costs• Lack of access to the urban advantage
2. The Urban Divide• Inequality of Opportunities – Lack of strong public institutional
support in cities leads to the “urban advantage” only being accessible to certain people
– Uneducated people and young slum dwellers, particularly women, are deprived of the opportunities to improve their situation
2. The Urban Divide• The repercussions of poverty reach
beyond economic dimensions and affects physical and social dimensions
• The Social Divide – Hunger in cities – The health divide– Education: Opportunities and
inequalities
3. Bridging The Urban Divide(Policy implications)
• Inclusive cities based on the four critical dimensions:– Economic– Social– Political– Cultural
Asia
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision,
http://esa.un.org/wup2009/unup/
Urbanising Asia• Population still predominantly rural,
however rates vary• Will not become predominantly urban
before 2026• Nearly half of the world’s urban
population lives in Asian cities• In the next decade Asian cities will
absorb two-thirds of the growth in the world’s urban population
Source: The State of Asian Cities 2010/11 http://www.unhabitat.org/pmss/listItemDetails.aspx?publicationID=3078
Urbanising Asia• 12 out of 21 mega-cities (>10 million)
are in Asia, and 7 of the top 10 cities• Many urban agglomerations are
evolving into mega urban regions and urban corridors
• 60% of Asia’s urban population lives in urban areas with populations under one million
Economic Role of Asian Cities
• Asian cities are highly productive – the 40% of the population in urban areas contribute 80% of the region’s GDP
• Asian cities are economically resilient• Synergies between the formal and informal
sectors account for the socio-economic dynamism of Asian cities
• Asian cities are diversifying from their role as factories of the world to one of innovative service providers
Poverty and inequality in Asian cities• The Asia-Pacific region is leading the
reduction of overall poverty in the world• Economic growth has not benefitted all
urban dwellers in the region equally• The Asia-Pacific region is host to over half of
the world’s slum population• Most Asian cities will achieve target for MDG
for access to water• Although, many Asian cities will miss the
MDG sanitation target
The Urban Environment and Climate Change
• Asian cities have not paid sufficient attention to urban environment an climate change issues
• Urban growth in Asia is not environmentally sustainable
• Air pollution in Aisa causes as many as 519,000 premature deaths every year
• Water supplies and food security are becoming a critical challenge in many urban areas
The Urban Environment and Climate Change
• Asian cities are among the most vulnerable to natural disasters
• Climate change will have a significant impact on the future development of Asia’s coastal cities
• Urban and rural areas will face challenges of water supplies, food supplies and eco-refugees
• Among urban areas, the poor are most vulnerable to climate change
Africa
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision,
http://esa.un.org/wup2009/unup/
Urbanising Africa• In 2009 Africa’s total population for the
first time exceeded one billion, of which 395 million (almost 40%) lived in urban areas
• African cities on average exhibit the highest inequalities in the world
• Two-thirds of all African urban growth will occur in intermediate cities (<500,000 inhabitants) for the foreseeable future
Sources: State of African Cities 2010 , Governance, Inequalities and Urban Land Markets http://www.unhabitat.org/pmss/listItemDetails.aspx?publicationID=3034 and
The State of the African Cities Report 2008 http://www.unhabitat.org/pmss/listItemDetails.aspx?publicationID=2574
Urbanising Africa• African urbanisation is a poverty-
driven process (and not the industrialisation-induced socio-economic transition it represented in the world’s other major regions)
African cities
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
10% 13% 12%16% 18% 18%
23%26%
26%28%
30% 32% 34% 35%
2 cities 3 cities 3 cities6 cities 8 cities 9 cities
15 cities21 cities
24 cities
28 cities
38 cities43 cities
44 cities
59 cities
3.4 5.3 6.3 11+ 15+ 19+30+
43+53+
68+
89+
110+
137+
169+
African 1+ Million Cities, Combined Population, % of Total Urban Population
% of total African urban population Combined population
Com
bine
d po
pula
tion
(mill
ions
) an
d nu
mbe
r of
1+
mill
ion
citie
s
Perc
enta
ge o
f To
tal U
rban
Pop
ulat
ion
Source: The State of the African Cities Report 2008, page 26
African cities• From 1960s to 1980s responses to slum
proliferation consisted of urban slum clearances (persistent and repeated, often by force)
• From 1980s onwards it became clear urban slum proliferation was out of control
• The reaction was to accept their existence but not to institute upgrading programs.
African cities• Many of the issues in Africa stem
from clashes between the system of governance, land markets and land title introduced with colonialism and the traditional or customary systems of land ownership and registration
• These systems have existed in adjacent areas, but cannot function in the same area
African cities• Issues occur when the colonial (formal)
system (city) expands into areas of traditional customary (informal) systems (rural)
• The formal system is often too expensive and time consuming, this results in people turning to the informal system, in cities this leads to slums
• The informal system (illegal) provides no security of tenure and therefore no incentive for dwellers to invest
Conclusions• Strong demographic growth in a city is
neither good nor bad on its own• Urbanisation has been associated with:– Improved human development– Rising incomes– Better living standards
• However when public policies benefit only small political or economic elites urbanisation results in instability, as cities become unlivable for rich and poor alike
Conclusions• Challenge is to focus on cities as people-
centred concentrations of opportunity, not just problems
• Good governance is the key to inclusive cities (including mega regions, urban corridors and other agglomerations) in which the benefits of urbanisation are available to all
• Good governance for the future often requires legislative and administrative changes to old municipal boundaries
Sources• Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of
the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision, http://esa.un.org/wup2009/unup/
• UN-HABITAT:– State of the World's Cities 2010/2011 - Cities for All: Bridging the Urban Divide
http://www.unhabitat.org/pmss/listItemDetails.aspx?publicationID=2917 – The State of Asian Cities 2010/11http
://www.unhabitat.org/pmss/listItemDetails.aspx?publicationID=3078– State of African Cities 2010 , Governance, Inequalities and Urban Land Markets
http://www.unhabitat.org/pmss/listItemDetails.aspx?publicationID=3034 – The State of the African Cities Report 2008
http://www.unhabitat.org/pmss/listItemDetails.aspx?publicationID=2574
• Interview, Jos Maseland, UN-HABITAT Regional Office for Africa, Nairobi, Kenya
Suggested further reading• NE: http://www.ne.se/lang/urbanisering?i_whole_article=true
• The Guardian: http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2012/jan/21/rise-megacity-live
• BBC: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/world/06/urbanisation/html/urbanisation.stm and http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/world/2006/urbanisation/
• An Australian perspective: http://www.globaleducation.edna.edu.au/globaled/go/pid/1820
• World Bank (video): http://www.wburbanstrategy.org/urbanstrategy/ and (presentation ppt and video stream): http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/EXTURBANDEVELOPMENT/0,,contentMDK:23074223~menuPK:337184~pagePK:64020865~piPK:51164185~theSitePK:337178,00.html
• Academic articles: http://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=urbanisation&hl=en&btnG=S%C3%B6k
