URBANIZATION AND URBAN SPRAWL
• Low density development but large spatial extent
• Can we target areas for conservation that promote resilience?
• Need information on areas that are likely to become urbanized in the future
NY DEC
WHAT TYPE OF GROWTH ARE WE SIMULATING?
1993
2010
WHAT TYPE OF GROWTH ARE WE SIMULATING?
SLEUTH IS
• Cellular Automaton Model• Use historic rates of urbanization (from imagery) to
calibrate model• Simulate urban growth based on physical and social
constraints and proximity to existing urban and transportation
• Monte Carlo-based simulation allows for probabilistic projections
What
WhatProjections of future urbanization
esri grid format 60m resolution urban, exurbanvalue representing bins of probability
About SLEUTH:USGS / UCSBCellular Automaton
Spatial ProcessHistoric dataGrowth rules
SpontaneousNew SpreadingEdge GrowthRoad-influenced
Calibrated and predicted on modified USCB Combined Statistical Areas
Road Density as proxy for Suburban Growth
HOW WE DEFINE URBAN AREAS
SLEUTH simulates spread of road density and therefore urbanization
HOW WE DEFINE URBAN AREAS
NLCD URBANCLASS
LOWER BOUND ROAD DENSITY
UPPER BOUND ROAD DENSITY
HOW WE DEFINE URBAN AREAS
What SLEUTH Doesn’t Do
Include detailed parcel level infoDirectly incorporate pop/demographic models to get at density/ housing demand
Does allow for policy input through exclusion/resistance layers
When201020202030204020502060
Appalachian
Southeast Regional Assessment ProjectGulf Coastal Plain and Ozarks
Where
Questions
Questions/Comments
Questions or comments from presentation about the SLEUTH model or about our data products in general?
Questions or comments in general about the SALCC, what we’re doing, where we’re going, etc.?
Contacts
Ken McDermond – [email protected]
Rua Mordecai – [email protected] Cakir – [email protected] Keister – [email protected] Rounds – [email protected] Deason –