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URBANIZATION CHALLENGES INURBANIZATION CHALLENGES IN
PAKISTANPAKISTAN
National University of Sciences & TechnologyNational University of Sciences & Technology
DecemberDecember 24,24, 20092009
Ted Rogers School of ManagementTed Rogers School of Management
Ryerson University, TorontoRyerson University, Toronto
Murtaza HaiderMurtaza [email protected]
Tel: 416.979.5000 x 2480
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OutlineOutline
What are the urbanization challen es in Pakistan?
Are these problems only urban?
a or c a enges w oca governance
A history of a tug-of-war between non-representative
centre an t e po itica esta is ments What needs to be done?
Your Questions
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Urbanization challenges in PakistanUrbanization challenges in Pakistan
Rapid urbanization Over the next two decades, the urban population in Pakistan
is likely to increase by 140%.
urban population in Pakistan, bringing the total urbanpopulation to a 130 million people.
e year w a so e a ma or an mar nPakistans development as a nation.
Pakistan will constitute 50% of the total population.
From nearly 50 million urbanites today, Pakistan will behome to a massive urban population o 1 millionliving in very high-density cities, which would be
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Urbanization and Population GrowthUrbanization and Population Growth
Rural population (million) Urban population (million) Percentage urban (%)
140
160
50
60
Pakistan
Projected
100
120
(million) 40
nt
60
80
Population
20
30
Perc
20
40
10
0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Years
0
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We do have a choice, demographic dividendWe do have a choice, demographic dividend
Not all is lost
The urbanization in Pakistan is likely to pose new
challenges in governance and urban service delivery. The current appalling state of most urban centres may
worsen with time.
hile urbanization poses new challenges, it will alsocreate new opportunities for growth and prosperity.
na ura y-pro uc o ur an za on w e e emergenceof a middle class of over a 100 million individuals, who willnot only create a domestic market for goods and services,but at the same time can create a skilled workforce that canbecome the engine of growth and source of innovation.
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The state of urban affairsThe state of urban affairs
It is no longer possible to overlook the urban decay inPakistan.
Streets are littered with waste Drains are overflowing with sewage
Low-lying communities are inundated after rainfall
Tra ic congestion is ubiquitous Violent crime in urban centres is on the rise.
e a e e er as ves e rom, or s no onger a e ooffer, reliable mass transit, good quality and affordableprimary education, and healthcare.
In brief, the urban rot in Pakistan is screaming at us,pleading for intervention.
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SocioSocio--demographics and housing characteristicsdemographics and housing characteristics
HousingStructure(%)
Area
v g
Annual
G.R.
u
Density(pers/
sqkm)
Urban
%
Avg.hhld.
Size
Literacy
Rate Adequate
Semi
adequate Informal
PAKISTAN 2.69 166 32.5 6.8 43.9 56 11 33
NWFP 2.81 238 16.9 8.0 35.4 56 6 38
FATA 2.19 117 2.7 9.3 17.4
PUNJAB 2.64 359 31.3 6.9 46.6 65 8 27
SINDH 2.80 216 48.8 6.0 45.3 47 19 34
BALOCHISTAN 2.47 19 23.9 6.7 24.8 14 14 72ISLAMABAD 5.19 889 65.7 6.2 72.4 88 6 6
,
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Access to waterAccess to water
Well Others* TotalPipedWater HandPump
Pakistan
1973 8.4 8.2 28.8 13.4 26.1 15.1 100
1980 12.6 7.7 34.3 12.3 17.3 15.8 100. . . . .
Urban
1973 28.4 26.5 26 7 8.8 3.3 100
1980 38.3 20 27.3 5.6 7.1 1.7 100
1998 60.2 4.8 25.7 1.3 4.4 3.5 100
Rural
1973 1.3 1.6 29.8 15.7 32.3 19.3 100
1980 2.5 2.9 37 14.9 21.3 21.4 100
State of Population 1988 p-187 and Population Census 1998 Table - 48
1998 13.4 3.9 49.6 6.9 12.5 13.9 100
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Access to sanitationAccess to sanitation
BathRoom LatrineArea
eparate
(%)
are
(%)
one
(%)
eparate
(%)
are
(%)
one
(%)
PAKISTAN 33 23 44 29 20 51
FATA
PUNJAB 32 18 50 27 16 58
SINDH 34 31 35 35 31 34
BALOCHISTAN 27 42 32 19 29 52
ISLAMABAD 59 17 24 55 17 28
Census, 1998
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Infrastructure deficitInfrastructure deficit
Less than 1% of wastewater is treated in Pakistan (Shah,. e res s umpe n o rav nes, s reams, an r vers.
The result has been drastic. Brooks, streams, ravines and rivers
have turned into sewers. The metropolitan governments recover fewer than 50% of
the solid waste generated in the cities. The rest is left to rot.
Even the waste that is collected is mostly dumped in openfields or is incinerated. The dumped waste pollutes thegroundwater and the incinerated waste creates air pollution.
Lahore has fewer than 100 traffic lights, which are. The result is severe traffic congestion.
In the federal capital, Islamabad, even the well-off
communities face chronic water shortages.
M H id 2009
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Urban poverty and unemploymentUrban poverty and unemployment
The poor economic growth, specifically the low rate ofemployment growth for the youth, lack of entrepreneurship,and the collapse of civilian institutions are some of the more
.
Consider that the largest and the fastest growing cohort inPakistan is between the a es of 15 and 25 ears of a e.
Employment opportunities are getting increasingly rare.
A lar e number of unem lo ed outh could readil bedrafted by the mafia or other degenerated groups.
Media reports suggested that the first week of January 2006w tnesse mur ers n arac an seven n a ore.
The case with the Swat Taliban
M t H id 2009
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Incoherent visions for urban PakistanIncoherent visions for urban Pakistan
Imaan mu he kheencha he to
Urban geographies, rural dispositions
Should women run in marathons or not?
Saudi Arabia: Should women drive, vote, travel alone,etc.
Iran: Should women be flogged if their hair are visible?
Malaysia: Where the religion, economy, urbanizationcan co-exist
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Challenges with local governanceChallenges with local governance
Governing hierarchies
Federal
Provincial Local/municipal
The uest to assume and retain all owers
Devolution and decentralization of powers and
Challenge:
- - -centre and the political establishments
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Milestones in local governanceMilestones in local governance
PanchayatFirstmunicipal Enactment
Bhutto
promulga-
M usha rra f
enactsDemocraticprovincial
esta b lishedpanchayat iinstitu tions inrural area s
corp ora tionesta b lishedin M ad ras
Corpora-t ion Ac t
Ordinance,but notimplemented
. -partyb a sedelectionsheld
governm-en ts refuse tow ork w ithlocalgovernments
20101688 1867 1912 1933 1941 1959 1972 1979 2001 2005 2009
PunjabMunicipalA c t
Ayub'sBDO a c tenacted.A b olishedin 1972.MA O in
Secondnon-partyelectionsunder
M usha rra f
City ofKarachiA c tp a ssed
Zia ena c tsLG O
a r y-b a sedlocalelecti-onsexpec-te d
* LGO= Loca l Gov ernm ent Ord inanc e, BDO = Ba sic Dem ocrac ies Ord inanc e, MAO = Municipa l Adm inistrat ion Ordina nce
1960.
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The consequenceThe consequence
The establishment of local overnments under one
regime and their abolition under the other
revented a stron and sustained local overnmenttradition from taking root in Pakistan.
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,
The Musharraf planThe Musharraf plan
While Gen. Musharraf took the same a roach of
banning politicians and creating a new cadre of
olitical arasites who thrive under militardictatorships and act as a conduit between the non-
Gen. Musharraf approached the decentralization
devolution plan of 2000 was far more
decentralization.
Murtaza Haider, 2009
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Devolution Plan under Gen. MusharrafDevolution Plan under Gen. Musharraf
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Structural composition of a Union Council (old)Structural composition of a Union Council (old)
MuslimmembersGeneralseats
(8+2)(8)
Mayorandde ut ma oron
UnionCouncil21members
jointticketMuslimwomen
Reservedseats(11)
Peasantsandworkers(6)
Generalseats(4)
Womenseats(2)Minorities(1)
Murtaza Haider, 2009
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Structural composition of a Union Council (new)Structural composition of a Union Council (new)
Generalseats(4+2)
(4)
UnionCouncil
deputymayoron
jointticket21members Mus imwomen
(2)
Generalseats(2)Reservedseats
(7)
Peasantsandworkers(4)
Womenseats(2)Minorities(1)
Murtaza Haider, 2009
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Local government hierarchyLocal government hierarchy
Ma or&De utMayor
Council
the20UCrdThe420Union
UnionCouncils(Mayorand
DeputyMayor)
seats
CouncilorsconstitutetheelectoralcollegeforTown/Tehsil Councilsandapp.1260Councilors
Mayorforthe(City)DistrictCouncils.
Council
UC
seats
Murtaza Haider, 2009
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The challengeThe challenge
The challenge for armed forces is obvious. The ad hoc local government policymaking, even under the most
comprehensive devolution plan instituted by Gen. Musharraf,
revealed serious flaws in fiscal decentralization andtransparency.
A review of financial decentralization suggests that the municipalgovernments were left at the mercy of higher tier governments,which prevented them rom delivering improved services to theirconstituents.
CCBs improve enfranchise the masses, political constraintsdisenfrenchise
The challenge for the democratic forces in Pakistan is toto take steps to offer constitutional cover to localgovernments.
on row e a y w e a wa er
Murtaza Haider, 2009
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The updateThe update
ICG claims massive ri in in the 2005 LG elections
Voter turnout was poor
PROVINCE Turnout(%) Male Female TotalPUNJAB 61.5 44.0 53.5SINDH 47.6 24.3 37.6NWFP 57.4 21.1 41.2BALOCHISTAN 39.3 21.5 31.1
Corruption rampant in LG
Total 56.8 35.9 47.4 Elected governments repealing LGOs
Party-based elections expected in 2010.
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What needs to be done?What needs to be done?
The Urban Challenge
The challenge for urban Pakistan is how to create:
Healthy Prosperous
Socially just, and
Environmentally sustainable urban communities, which wouldcontribute to the growth and prosperity of the entire nation.
should recognise that the cities would be the
innovation.
Murtaza Haider, 2009
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SectoralSectoral targetstargets
Local economic development policies
Housing & land policy
Basic health policy
ommun y- ase n ras ruc ure eve opmen
Orangi, Changa Pani, Duddhi wala
nsung eroes: a eez ra n, anzoor attoo
A strong dose of realismMeglev vs BRT
Water for all means water for none
Murtaza Haider, 2009
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Development StrategiesDevelopment Strategies
Role of commercial banks
Self-sustaining development
Dont rely on AID Re-engineer municipal finance
Less than 7% of the taxes are collected by sub-national
governments Institutional capacity building
Public community partnerships
Revamping curricula for urban planners and civilengineers
Information & knowledge banks
Murtaza Haider, 2009
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Again, we do have a choiceAgain, we do have a choice
With the demo ra hic dividend we can:
Bring prosperity and development