Andrea LampisCIDER – Universidad de Los Andes
Urbanization y Global Climate Change:
Bogotá – Colombia
The city’s centre, viewed from the main park Simon Bolívar. Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Bogota_Centro.jpg
1. Introduction
This short document presents background information on Bogotá (Colombia)
for the UGEC Workshop on ‘The Responses of Urban Areas to Climate Change’.
Andrea LampisCIDER – Universidad de Los Andes
Map 1. Bogotá within Colombia’s map
2. Demographic data and trends
The city, officially named Bogotá, D.C. (D.C. for "Distrito Capital", which means
"Capital District"), is the capital of Colombia, as well as the largest and by far the most
populous city in the country with 6,776,009 inhabitants (2005 census). Bogotá and its
metropolitan area, which includes municipalities such as Chía, Cota, Soacha, Cajicá and
La Calera, had an estimated population of 7,881,156 according to the 2005 census.
The city’s growth rate is still impressive with an increase from 5,440,401
inhabitants in 1993 to the above mentioned 6,776,009, not counting the limiting
municipalities. This is the result of three main driving forces, namely, natural city
growth, economic migration and internal displacement.
The rapid growth of cities is a widely recognised factor of pressure on the
capacity of institutions to respond to climate change. Graph 1, presents absolute and
Andrea LampisCIDER – Universidad de Los Andes
relative changes of all Colombian departmental capitals between the 1993 and 2005
censuses, calculated on the basis of the total population of the country. It is interesting
to note that Bogotá it is the only main city among the main four that has considerably
increased its relative weight by 1.5 percentage points, whereas it seems that the
process of Bogotá gaining a clearer primacy within the still rapid urbanization process
is confirmed by these recent data.
Graph 1. Population change in departmental capitals in Colombia vs. Total country
Source: Dane (2005) Population Census
The two areas of the city concentrating the highest number of inhabitants are
the localities of Kennedy and Suba, with 758,8701 inhabitants (1.39% of total
population) and 843,314, respectively (11.74% of total).
1 The first data
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Graph 1. Bogotá- Population by locality
Source: Secretaría distrital de planeación (2005) Sistema de Información Social para Bogotá
Graph 2, below, reflects a progressive ageing population, as well as the effect of
violence, internal displacement and economic migration on the greater weight of the
female population, especially in the age groups ranging from 15 to 44 years.
Graph 2. Bogotá - Population by sex and age group.
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3. Socio-economic variables: poverty and inequality2
With no doubts there could be many more things to say about Bogotá and its
transformation over the last decade, from the astonishing fourfold decrease of the
homicide rate and of violence, up to public space and transport system development,
or a Mare winning the elections with the slogan “Bogotá without Indifference”,
centring most of its action on hunger and social exclusion.
However, for time reasons, this section presents recent indicators and historical
trends on poverty. Low-income and marginal groups are likely those who will bear the
harshest impact of GEC in many cities, together with other social groups like the
elderly or the ill.
3.1. Poverty actual trends
2 Time constraints compel me to offer just a selection of topics to the colleagues participating in the workshop. I apologise for that and hope to be able to offer a broader overview of the city to those who will be interested to that in the next future.
Andrea LampisCIDER – Universidad de Los Andes
From 2001 income poverty has been officially decreasing in Bogotá. Still, official
data are under scrutiny and debate for a recent methodological change in the basket
of goods and services used for calculation that was deemed a political operation to
artificially reduce poverty by a number of critics.
Thus, according to recent official data the incidence of income poverty would
be 43.4% in 2004 a data that would still mean a significant 3%, roughly, above the
40.5% of 19973.
An overview of the city shows that poverty is spatially concentrated, a data that
is relevant within an UGEC perspective, picturing a city where impacts are likely to
present a marks socio-spatial concentration.
The areas south-west and south-east of the city, mostly on the outskirt belt
concentrate the highest number of income poor, with levels as high as 70%, whereas
the central and well-off locality of Chapinero has an incidence that does not reach
above 18.8%. In 2003 the local administration estimated that the city had at least 3.5
millions of people under the poverty line and 1 million below the extreme poverty line.
Recent Unmet Basic Needs (UBN) data, calculated on the basis of the Quality of
Life Household National Survey of 2003, strengthen the picture of the socio-spatial
concentration of poverty in Bogotá, placing Ciudad Bolívar (south) and Kennedy
(south-west) as the two localities with the worst indicators.
3.2. Income poverty: insights for the analysis
This section presents the evolution of poverty indicators in Bogotá over the last
thirty years. It emphasises recent trends and pays specific attention to the strengths
and weaknesses of the different approaches and policies. Within this comparison over
time, a particular space is dedicated to descriptive versus more dynamic approaches to
poverty trends and analysis in Colombia. This emphasis is grounded in the underlying
3 PDH, 2005, Pobreza y Distribución del Ingreso en Bogotá, DNP: Bogotà.
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arguments of the thesis in that there still is an important gap, certainly in Colombia, in
the understanding of how the dynamics of poverty at the micro-level can determine
the exposition of households to the risk of falling into a situation of poverty.
It is interesting to start from a quote of an important analyst of the Colombian
socio-economic context to see how poverty trends in Bogotá might have been
described just a decade ago and, at the same time, to point out how unpredictable
poverty trends can be in this country and, of course, in Bogotá. In his summary to an
article on employment and poverty during economic restructuring in Bogotá,
published in 1997, just at the time the fieldwork for this research was carried out,
Gilbert wrote:
“Bogotá is seemingly a positive example of what restructuring and sensible macro-economic policy can bring to Latin America. Despite liberalisation and a vast increase in the people seeking work, unemployment rates have fallen. Large numbers of new jobs have been created, principally in the informal sector. There seems little real doubt that since 1970 poverty in Bogotá has become less common and less serious.4” (Gilbert, 1997: 1047).
In spite of the fact that Gilbert recognises that the degree of income inequality
has not been reduced, there is much to say about how the picture depicted above is
not only historically doubtful but also strongly unconfirmed by the direction assumed
by economic and poverty dynamics in Colombia and in Bogotá from 1997 onwards.
Table 1, presents the distribution of UBN poverty in Bogotá from 1985 to 2003.
Fieldwork localities are highlighted in the table and the spatial distribution of UBN
poverty is then graphically represented in map 1 and 3. Data show two main trends.
The first one concerns socio-spatial inequality: UBN poverty is much higher in
the south5 of the city than in the other areas. The second trend needs to be analysed 4 My italics. 5 The locality of San Cristóbal has been left in the centre since the table adopts a sub-division firstly used by the Health Department that is quite useful in terms of spatial understanding of differences and polarizations. However, geographically speaking, San Cristóbal belongs much more to the south than to the centre of the city. It definitely is a locality that presents strong and clear homogeneities with other
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with caution because data from 1997 and 2001 are from projections realised on the
basis of the data of the 1993 Census.
The localities with the highest level of UBN in 1985 are the same in 1997 and
2001: Ciudad Bolívar, Usme, Bosa, San Cristóbal and Santa Fe, but the incidence is
dwindling quite consistently. However, as noted by Fresneda (1998: 45), “in spite of
the general decrease in the percentages per locality, the population with UBN
represented 4.1% of the whole population in 1998, while this proportion increases up
to 5.8% in 2001”6. It is important to precise that data for 1985 are calculated using the
household as the unit of analysis, while data for 1997, 2001 and 2003 use individuals.
localities of the south when social indicators and the quality of housing and infrastructure are considered.
6 My translation from Spanish.
Andrea LampisCIDER – Universidad de Los Andes
Table 1. UBN poverty in Bogotá by zone and locality: 1985-1997-2001-2003
Zone Locality UBN poverty1985 1997 2001 2003
North
Usaquén 19.1 11,8 11,37 3,9Chapinero 8.5 6,3 5,94 1,6Engativá 16.1 8,8 8,11 3,8Suba 24.5 11,1 10,13 2,8Barrios Unidos 14.5 7,4 6,88 3,5Teusaquillo 4.5 4,2 4,16 0,2Subtotal** 9,54
South-west
Bosa 33.4 19,3 17,14 9,7Kennedy 21.2 13,3 12,64 9,1Fontibón 20.4 12,5 11,73 6,8Puente Aranda 14.0 7,7 3,7Subtotal 13,55
Centre
Santa Fe 34.6 18,4 16,33 12,8San Cristóbal 40.1 20 17,79 15,8Los Mártires 13.9 8,8 8,07 5,1Antonio Nariño 14.2 8,22 7,63 3La Candelaria 26.2 13,3 12 9Subtotal 16,68
South
Usme 39.7 26,9 23,83 14,8Tunjuelito 28.1 14,2 12,78 9,3Rafael Uribe 25.5 16 14,26 8,3Ciudad Bolívar 56.2 29,2 26,07 16,2Sumapaz Na Na Na NaSubtotal 22,83
Bogotá 23.5 14,52 7,8
Sources: 1985 data are from the 1985 Census, while 1997 and 2001 data are from the projections realised by Fresneda (2001) for the Departamento Administrative de Planeación Distrital (District Planning Department) – DAPD, 2003 data are from Encuesta de calidad de vida 2003.** Sub-totals available only for 1997.
As shown in map 2 below, in 2001 the greatest incidence (visible in the darker
spots on the map) tended to concentrate on the outskirts of the city in those localities
that where the poorest ones also in 1985, that is the localities of the south, south-west
and west, they are the same as those in map 1, showing that although not the best
indicator, UBN do help individuating the spatial concentration of poverty, rightly for
the fact of being a composed indicator within which the weight of public service
provision and housing quality is the most prominent.
Andrea LampisCIDER – Universidad de Los Andes
Map 2 Bogotá. Total population in poverty by localities - 2001
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3.3. Income Poverty, employment and income generation
Looking at poverty using independent non-governmental data, shows a picture
where the evolution in the incidence of income poverty7 over the period 1990-2003
presents two main different trends. During the time period 1990-1994, the incidence
of poverty decreases from 55.9% to 50% in 1994, down again to 48.6% in 1997.
In the second time period 1998-2002 there is a sharp increase in the incidence
of income poverty, which starts with and deepens along the deep economic crisis that
hits the country as a whole. Over just one year, from 1997 to 1998, without any
change in the method of measurement, the incidence of poverty for the groups
considered in a situation of extreme poverty was back to the level of the beginning of
the nineties, that is, close to 18% of the total population (right hand scale in graph 3).
Graph 3. Income poverty incidence in Bogotá (1990-2003)
The scale on the left-hand side represents the percentage of the poor and that on the right-hand side tha percentage of critically poor (indigentes).Source: CID/DAPD (2004).
Employment and income are not only traditionally strictly linked variables, but
also extremely sensible to the interrelations existing between the global and local
dynamics of the economy, politics and policy. This section presents key data about the
trends of those two variables over more than a decade due to their close relationship
with income poverty.7 Data are based on calculation realized by CID (2004) on the basis of the National Household Survey carried out by the National Statistic Department (DANE). Poverty levels are calculated on the basis of declared income. Sub-declarations and missed declarations are estimated according to the methodology indicated by CEPAL [ECLAC (1990)] and Martin (Martin et al., 1986), both cited in CID (2004).
Andrea LampisCIDER – Universidad de Los Andes
The magnitude of the impact of the 1998 recession can be introduced
considering that Bogotá registered a GDP of COL $ 4.690 m. in 2003 vs. Col $ 4.675 m.
in 1994 (SHB, 2004: 29). Besides, the consideration of the behaviour of the real per
capital income of independent workers and capital income8, which fell by 44.2%
between 1994 and 2003, adds some key elements of appreciation to an already critical
picture.
Thus, the overall picture shows a very marked loss in real purchasing power and
sets the context for a better understanding of the magnitude of the impacts of the
crisis on the quality of life and human development of all social groups, but particularly
of those with low-incomes and those in a situation of vulnerability due to their assets
base and limited capacity to successfully face the crisis.
As the special report over ten years of human development points out (PNDH,
2003), the 1990-2000 decade is marked by law N.50 of 1990, better known as the
‘labour reform’. While trying to reduce the costs of hiring labour for (mostly) private
enterprises, it had the effect of hindering the creation of new jobs and, particularly,
that of immobilising the labour intensive sectors that traditionally provide an albeit
temporary escape for low-income groups from situations of crisis affecting their
livelihoods.
From table 2, it can be seen that albeit the pace of the increase in
unemployment and under-employment rates are not very different among the
different groups, there are significant differences in terms of magnitude and potential
social impacts. There is a positive association between unemployment and poverty
over the years, although the non-poor group is the most comparatively affected. If one
does not only look at the overall percentage but calculates the real magnitude of the
8 These two are usually reported together in official statistics. In Colombia, the ‘independent worker’ category is an ambiguous one since it includes both informal workers not salaried by either a public or private company and truly independent workers such as free lance professionals.
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increase9, the differences among the three groups become more clear, being that over
the whole 1990-2003 period the unemployment rate increased by 66.5%, 73.2% and
75.4%, respectively for the extremely poor, the poor and the non-poor.
As far as the poor and the extremely poor are concerned, between 1990 and
1993, unemployment and under-employment fall for all considered groups. However,
from 1994 there is a raise in unemployment and under-employment rates, which
becomes sharper from 1996 to 2000, showing only a marginal decrease from 2001
onwards. Time-trends are also consistent with the data presented in the previous
section about the poverty line.
Both for a vulnerability and livelihoods analysis, it is important to underline that
the magnitude of underemployment for the poor in 1997-8 had already almost
doubled the levels of 1990, while in 2003 it had already reached a level well beyond
that threshold.
As for under-employment, the most striking data is the tremendous increase
starting rightly in 2000, at the same time employment rate began to register a mild
decrease, showing that the partial economic recuperation implies, as analysts have
pointed out, a society characterized (both at national and at the Bogotá’s level) by
greater job insecurity, a key insight for what the results of the fieldwork analysis
indicate in terms of the importance of the income generation factor within the
dynamic of vulnerability for poor groups in the city. More informal and precarious jobs
mean less access to legal health provision, less security, a lesser access to pension
schemes10.
9 Growth calculated according to t+1 =(It+1- It)/ It.10 The pension system of the country, related to Law N.100 of 1993 (the same that reformed the Health System), was reformed by Law N.797 of 2003. It is characterized by a law level of coverage, meaning that the majority of the elderly population has no protection at all. In Bogotá, for instance, only 15% of women older than 55 and 27% of men older than 60 have some kind of age or disable pension. Inequality in terms of types of pension regime are another important issue, in spite of the existence of special schemes to which only a minority has access albeit many more are entitled to them, roughly on e fifth of the population of Bogotá older than 60 who benefit from a pension scheme receives between one and two minimum legal salaries.
Andrea LampisCIDER – Universidad de Los Andes
Table 4.4. - Unemployment and under-employment rates for non-poor, poor and extremely poor groups in Bogotá 1990-2003
YearsUnemployment rate Under-employment rate
Total Non-poor Poor Extremely Poor Total Total Non-
poor Poor
1990 10,1 6,5 13,8 21,8 15,2 11,7 19,3 23,21991 8,7 5,8 11,7 17,8 14.0 10,8 17,6 21,31992 8,3 5,4 11,6 19,2 13,6 10,9 16,7 19,21993 6,4 4,0 9,3 16,0 10,6 8,5 13,5 17,31994 7,0 4,8 10,1 18,2 14.0 9,9 15,1 18,21995 7,1 5,2 9,5 17,3 12,2 10,2 14,8 16,71996 9,3 6,0 13,8 25,5 15.0 12,3 19,0 19,71997 10,3 6,9 15,0 27,2 13,8 11,3 17,5 18,91998 14,3 9,0 20,5 31,6 18,6 14,1 24,5 29,21999 18,6 11,7 26,7 39,9 18,8 15,9 22,9 25,82000 20,4 13,9 28,3 39,8 18.0 14,9 22,4 26,52001 19,1 12,8 26,1 39,2 35.0 29,6 42,2 52,52002 18,6 12,5 24,8 36,3 41,8 34,5 50,6 61,42003 17,3 11,4 23,9 34,9 39,6 33,0 48,3 57,6
Source: DANE, National Household Survey Calculations: Centre for Development Research of the National University for unemployment and National Programme for Human Development of the National Planning Department for under-employment data.
4. Climate
The average temperature on the 'sabana11' is 14.0°C (57°F), varying from -8°C
(18°F) to 20°C (68°F). Dry and rainy seasons alternate throughout the year. The driest
months are December, January, February and March; the rainiest are April, May,
September, October and November. June and July are usually rainy periods and August
is sunny with high winds.
Frost in Bogotá
Frost usually occurs in dry season. During this period, the temperature falls below 0°C.
The lowest temperature ever recorded was -8°C (17°F) inside the city and -10°C (14°F)
in the nearby towns of the sabana.
11 The Colombian-Spanish Word for plain, literally sabana means sheet.
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Climatic conditions are irregular and quite variable due to the El Niño and La Niña
climatic phenomena, which occur in and around the Pacific basin and are responsible
for very pronounced climatic changes.
4.1. Climate change trends
Recent research on climate change in Colombia concentrates on issues also
researched at the international level. In particular, the intensification of the extreme
meteorological phenomena of ‘El Niño’ and ‘La Niña’, which respectively refer to
periods of extreme draught and precipitations. Key topics on the local research agenda
also are the general study of rainfall trends, glaciers melting and temperature and sea
level increase.
Global climate change as an aspect of global environmental change processes,
although a global phenomenon, is experiences by different regions with specific
intensities and consequences.
In spite of local progresses in research on climate change, that for instance
estimate the range of temperature increase from the city between 0.1 and 0.2 C° per
decade over the next century using the IPCC model, to establish mechanisms of
adaptation capable to respond to the impact of changes such as the above, it is
important to establish a better system of modeling regards of the scenarios of climate
change for the city as a whole, but even more for specific areas of it.
There are three main research lines about how climate change impacts upon
cities and its areas: these are the contribution of the city to the processes that
determine climate change, (for instance, the emissions of greenhouse gases); the
impact this process has on the socio-economic dynamics and the counter action that
can originate from appropriate public policy.
Data on Bogotá suggest the main impacts will be in terms of temperature
increase and rainfall. Attached side-effects are a greater increase in dehydration, the
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insurgence of illnesses previously unknown at the height of Bogotá over sea level,
which is 2600 metres; as well as a steep increase in energy consumption for
refrigeration.
The increase of extreme weather conditions, such as storms and strong winds is
likely to worsen the already impressing tragedy of low-intensity disasters that cause
the loss of part or even all assets to a number of households ranging from 3 to 20
every time the rain fall heavily on the city, whereas policies to prevent this from
happening have progressed a lot in terms of methodological understanding and
capacity to act, but fall short of funds and institutional capacity and thus often fall back
into important but less impacting post-disaster humanitarian assistance.
A research capable of matching data between poverty and assets on the one
hand and the exposure to environmental changing or extreme conditions is a missing
point for the city, since interdisciplinary research is still moving its first steps on the
topic, although the potential is great because advancements from disciplinary
approaches are worthwhile mentioning.
The graphs below present some information on some broad indicators that
describe some effects of climate change on the city. They are overall data, mostly
showing that the city has the capacity to research and gather precise data on these
issues, although a key research issue on the agenda must be the desegregation of
these data by smaller territorial units to be able to overlap climate and, more broadly,
environmental indicators, with those concerning the use of the soil and prevailing
socio-economic and demographic trends.
The first two graphs present the trends of precipitation in Bogotá during the El
Niño of 1997 and the La Niña of 1999, which actually stretched unusually up to year
2000.
It follows a graph on the multi-annual precipitation 1961-1990 showing a
steady trend of two rainy seasons, which is a baseline data on the basis of which
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alteration are being measured by institutions as IDEAM (the meteorological institution)
or by various departments of geography in the country, among which there is the
outstanding work of the National University in Bogotá.
There follow four maps that by couples respectively illustrate the El Niño and La
Niña change in the average air temperature and average yearly precipitation related to
the forecasts made by IDEAM in 2002.
There are at least three elements in these maps worth being pointed out. The
first one is the extreme variation of temperature and rainfall that reaches very high
peaks. The second one is that due to the variety of thermal floors the country presents
both extremes under either one of the phenomena. The third element is that in the
areas of greatest variation there are cities that will be most likely hit in the future from
environmental changes related to climate change but also environmental
transformations such as water scarcity due to glaciers melting.
Annexes Graphs
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Andrea LampisCIDER – Universidad de Los Andes
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Yearly average temperature during el Niño
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Most probably alterations on precipitations in Colombia due to El
Niño
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Air temperature alterations during La Niña (°C)
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4.2. Institutions and climate change
This section faces the key question concerning what is being done in Bogotá
and, more broadly, in Colombia, to understand and take action to mitigate and adapt
to the effects of climate change.
Box 1, below, lists the main institutions and agencies involved in researching
and devising actions in the face of global climate change at the local level.
Precipitation alterations during La Niña(mm)
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Box 1.a Institutions and relative lines of action on Global Climate Change in BogotáEntidad Líneas de acciónDAMA12 - Departamento Técnico Administrativo del Medio Ambiente
English: Technical and Administrative Department for Environment
It administrates the SIAC13 (Environmental System of the Capital District). This consists of the set of orientations, norms, activities, resources, programs and institutions that regulates the environmental management of the Capital District.
The purpose of the system is to coordinate all governmental activities of the local government with the objectives of its environmental policy, including: planning, urban and regional development, public services provision, public works, environmental as well as sanitary control and management, civic education and culture, impact prevention and mitigation.
DAMA is also in charge of the formulation of the Environmental Management Plan. This is the policy framework that steers all activities related to environmental management in Bogotá. It sets city level objectives and goals, defines scenarios for regulation as well as the institutional tools to be applied to each of them.
The institution is also in charge of the Environmental Observatory of Bogotá14. Its goal is to manage, consolidate, generate and divulgate knowledge about elements and actors that constitute and transform Bogotá’s environment.-Observatorio ambiental de Bogotá: gestionar, consolidar, generar y divulgar conocimiento e información acerca de los elementos y actores que constituyen y transforman el medio ambiente de Bogotá.
Finally, DAMA is also involved in the Environmental Roundtable of the Central Region and in that of Bogotá-Cundinamarca.
It is among the promoters of the Local Environmental Meetings.
Box 1.b Institutions and relative lines of action on Global Climate Change in BogotáCruz Roja Colombiana15
Colombian Red Cross
-Participación en el grupo nacional de cambio climático (junto con la Universidad Javeriana, La Cruz Roja Colombiana, el IDEAM, Maloka y el Instituto Agustín Codazzi): Busca desarrollar un proceso de conciencia de las implicaciones del cambio climático en los niveles nacional, regional y local y además crear espacios de encuentro entre diferentes sectores para implementar acciones políticas, comunitarias y de investigación científica.
12 DAMA website: http://www.secretariadeambiente.gov.co/sda/libreria/php/decide.php?patron=00. 13 From the Spanish acronym: Sistema Ambiental del Distrito Capital14 Website of the Environmental Observatory of Bogotá http://observatorio.dama.gov.co/ . It contains research and planning documents on climate change issues related to the city.15 Colombian Red Cross’ website: http://www.cruzrojacolombiana.org/cruzroja.html
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-Programa de Adaptación Nacional: Se basa en tres ejes: adaptación, reducción del riesgo y salud -Proyecto de cambio climático en la Guajira y San Andrés: Busca crear conciencia y mejorar la capacidad de resistncia de las comunidades frente a los efectos del cambio climático involucrando a las comunidades en la gestión del riesgo
Box 1.c Institutions and relative lines of action on Global Climate Change in BogotáIDEAM16 -Piloto Nacional Integrado de Adaptación (INAP):
Apoyar la formulación de programas de adaptación a los efectos del cambio climático en los Ecosistemas de alta montaña, áreas insulares del caribe colombiano y en la Salud humana; así como involucrar los impactos esperados del cambio climático en las políticas sectoriales del país.
-Proyecto PHRD: Donación Japonesa para Piloto Nacional de Adaptación al CambioClimático: Ecosistemas de Alta Montaña, Áreas Insulares del Caribe colombiano y Salud Humana- INAP”
Box 1.d Institutions and relative lines of action on Global Climate Change in BogotáDPAE17 (Dirección de Prevención y Atención de Emergencias de Bogotá)
Es la oficina gubernamental adscrita a la Secretaría de Gobierno de la Alcaldía Mayor de Bogotá, que define las políticas e integra las acciones de prevención de riesgos y atención de. Busca promover las acciones requeridas para la reducción de riesgos de origen natural y humano no intencional y garantizar el manejo efectivo de las situaciones de emergencia minimizando los efectos negativos sobre la población de Bogotá a través del Sistema Distrital de Prevención y Atención de Emergencias.
5. Final considerations
In the light of the suggestions below and considering the elements presented
plus some direct knowledge provided by more than a decade of experience working in
Colombia and specifically in Bogotá, I will try now to put forward some initial
reflections related to Professor Sánchez’s questions.
1. According to your knowledge or expertise on a particular city (or cities within a region), what is a realistic expectation of responses (mitigation and adaptation) to climate change in that city or cities during the next five years and during the next 20 years.
16 IDEAM’s website: http://www.ideam.gov.co/ 17 DPAE’s website: http://www.fopae.gov.co/portal/page/portal/fopae
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The first element to consider is that Colombia has not a governmental or State
policy on the effect of global environmental and climate changes. After the great
improvements of the mid-nineties, with the creation of the Ministry of Environment
and the promulgation of Law 99 of 1993 that took on board many of the insights
coming from the Rio de Janeiro UN conference, the country suffered a setback under
the presidency of Pastrana and even more Uribe, who actually disappeared the
Ministry of Environment merging its function with those of the recently created
Ministry of Environment, Housing and Local Development (EHLD). The web site of the
government has a “climate” section18 that links up with institutions researching climate
but really does not say much about related policy guidelines.
Still the Ministry of EHLD, signed on behalf of the Colombian government a
number of bi-lateral agreement, mostly related to the implementation of the Kyoto
protocol, such as that with the Dutch Ministry of Enviroment that states as the
objective:
“The objective of this memorandum is to facilitate the development and implementation of greenhouse gas emission reduction project activities in Colombia and the transfer to the Netherlands of the agreed part of the certified emission reductions resulting from those project activities in accordance with article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol.”
This undoubtedly good news because some technical cooperation is
needed to transfer know how and resources to improve and foster local
progammes.
The second element, related to a key environmental debate related to
discussions on development and political science. Colombia is not a greenhouse big
producer. It rather produces 0.001 of the world total emissions, but still is very much
affected by the consequences of this phenomenon, which is being flagged as a global
one, but that has clear western as well as industrial roots, as shown by the recent
18 http://www.gobiernoenlinea.gov.co/tema_ciudadanos.aspx?temID=78
Andrea LampisCIDER – Universidad de Los Andes
WWF Living Planet report clearly showing where the worst and heaviest ecological
footprints belong.
Hence Colombia has – like Brazil for the Amazon basin – other priorities
according to many most pressing than facing climate change. This issue is a key one we
should consider if we want to make an impact and steer a new course of action in
developing countries.
Questions about who pays for it or why the long-term interventions when we
have to face hunger and death or even just the fact that the country has not got a
decent infrastructure to mobilise people around, need to be addressed with a stronger
argument than the worldwide threat of an incoming planetary disaster.
2- What are the major consequences (positive and negative) of those potential responses?
The main element, looking back at what said in point 1, is that there are still no
real responses beyond academic research in the policy domain.
But a further element, is that climate change is global on the map but still very
uncertain and at times even far away in terms of perceived local impacts, especially
form the point of view of the economic cost, which is one of the things that prompts
politicians to act, at least sometimes.
Unless GEC and UGEC issues become a pressing priority in Colombia due to
some really catastrophic effect, It seems more likely that no action will be undertaken.
Therefore, the path of adapting the legal frameworks to broaden the type of events
and social groups protected looks like one of the most promising ways of acting,
together with local pilot projects strengthening the resilience of local groups under the
threat of relevant risks, to show how much can be done with little resources.
3- What are the major obstacles and opportunities these cities have to generate those initial responses?
Andrea LampisCIDER – Universidad de Los Andes
A major issue in Colombia is the visibility of the problem. It starts to show up on
the newspapers but, also for the reasons mentioned in the other point, does not
impacts the policy agenda as a priority.
Furthermore, being a conflict ridden country, Colombia tends to look at herself
and has a low perception of how it fits into the international web of interlocking
effects. This comprehension of course exists, especially among academics, but even
there if one looks at the proportion of funding studying local issues rather than
comparative ones, it strikes how the country shows such little awareness of the
importance of other less local perspectives.
Nonetheless, changes are taking place as an effect of GEC and this will, sadly
enough, soon provide the push to start acting.
4- In particular, what are your thoughts regarding the capacities for institutional (formal and informal) responses within those cities?
I think that UGEC issues, like environmental disasters, should be explored in
terms of participative interventions with and within local communities. Participatory
interventions are not panacea, and in many cases the rhetoric attached to them largely
overcomes what they can really offer. Still, lots of activities in terms of adaptation and
mitigation are low cost and can be done with people of local communities as co-
coordinators.
Some positions like that of the local Red Cross are also at least good subjects of
discussion because they seem to point to individual actions as a response. While
individual can have an impact on water conservation it is arguable that major impacts
on climate change can be achieved without taking on board industrial, technological
and policies or those concerning the use of natural resources in relationship to the
mode of production.