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U.S. and World Cotton U.S. and World Cotton Economic OutlookEconomic Outlook
National Cotton CouncilNational Cotton Council2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting
Nashville, TNNashville, TNAugust 20-22, 2003August 20-22, 2003
Prepared by:Prepared by:
Economic ServicesEconomic ServicesNational Cotton CouncilNational Cotton Council
U.S. and World Cotton U.S. and World Cotton Economic OutlookEconomic Outlook
National Cotton CouncilNational Cotton Council2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting
Nashville, TNNashville, TNAugust 20-22, 2003August 20-22, 2003
Prepared by:Prepared by:
Economic ServicesEconomic ServicesNational Cotton CouncilNational Cotton Council
Percent
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Percent
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
U.S. Real GDP GrowthU.S. Real GDP Growth
0
2
4
6
8
10
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Percent
0
2
4
6
8
10
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Percent
Civilian Unemployment RateCivilian Unemployment Rate
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Consumer Price Index, ApparelConsumer Price Index, Apparel
Million Acres
0
4
8
12
16
20
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03e
Southeast Mid-South Southwest West
Million Acres
0
4
8
12
16
20
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03e
Southeast Mid-South Southwest West
U.S. Cotton Planted AreaU.S. Cotton Planted Area
Million Bales
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03p
Production
Million Bales
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03p
Production
U.S. Cotton SupplyU.S. Cotton Supply
Million Bales
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03p
Production Beg. Stocks Imports
Million Bales
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03p
Production Beg. Stocks Imports
U.S. Cotton SupplyU.S. Cotton Supply
Million 480 Lb Bale Equivalents
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1998-00 Avg200120022003
Million 480 Lb Bale Equivalents
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1998-00 Avg200120022003
U.S. Retail Cotton ConsumptionU.S. Retail Cotton Consumption
Million 480 Lb Bale Equivalents
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1998-00 Avg200120022003
Million 480 Lb Bale Equivalents
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1998-00 Avg200120022003
Net Imports of Cotton TextilesNet Imports of Cotton Textiles
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03p
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03p
U.S. Cotton Mill UseU.S. Cotton Mill UseMillion Bales
Million Bales
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03p
Production Use
Million Bales
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03p
Production Use
Foreign Cotton Production & UseForeign Cotton Production & Use
Million Bales
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
91 93 95 97 99 01 03p
Million Bales
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
91 93 95 97 99 01 03p
U.S. Cotton ExportsU.S. Cotton Exports
World Cotton Ending StocksWorld Cotton Ending StocksMillion Bales
05
10
1520253035
404550
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03f
ROW U.S. China
Million Bales
05
10
1520253035
404550
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03f
ROW U.S. China
Cents per Lb.
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Oct
-00
No
v-00
Dec
-00
Feb
-01
Mar
-01
May
-01
Jun
-01
Jul-
01
Sep
-01
Oct
-01
Dec
-01
Jan
-02
Feb
-02
Ap
r-02
May
-02
Jul-
02
Au
g-0
2
Sep
-02
No
v-02
Dec
-02
Feb
-03
Mar
-03
Ap
r-03
Jun
-03
Jul-
03
US Spot A USNE
Cents per Lb.
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Oct
-00
No
v-00
Dec
-00
Feb
-01
Mar
-01
May
-01
Jun
-01
Jul-
01
Sep
-01
Oct
-01
Dec
-01
Jan
-02
Feb
-02
Ap
r-02
May
-02
Jul-
02
Au
g-0
2
Sep
-02
No
v-02
Dec
-02
Feb
-03
Mar
-03
Ap
r-03
Jun
-03
Jul-
03
US Spot A USNE
““A” Index, Spot 4134 and USNEA” Index, Spot 4134 and USNE
38 37 33 32 34 35 36 38 40 42 50 41 370
10
20
30
40
50
60
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03f
Percent
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Cents/Lb
Stocks/Use "A" Index
38 37 33 32 34 35 36 38 40 42 50 41 370
10
20
30
40
50
60
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03f
Percent
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Cents/Lb
Stocks/Use "A" Index
Cotton Stocks/Use Cotton Stocks/Use (World less China)(World less China)
38 37 33 32 34 35 36 38 40 42 50 41 37
6358
71
91
86
79
59
5357
42
56
72
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03f
Percent
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Cents/Lb
Stocks/Use "A" Index
38 37 33 32 34 35 36 38 40 42 50 41 37
6358
71
91
86
79
59
5357
42
56
72
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03f
Percent
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Cents/Lb
Stocks/Use "A" Index
Cotton Stocks/Use Cotton Stocks/Use (World less China)(World less China) vs “A” Indexvs “A” Index
38 37 33 32 34 35 36 38 40 42 50 41 37
6358
71
91
86
79
59
5357
42
56
72
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03f
Percent
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Cents/Lb
Stocks/Use "A" Index
38 37 33 32 34 35 36 38 40 42 50 41 37
6358
71
91
86
79
59
5357
42
56
72
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03f
Percent
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Cents/Lb
Stocks/Use "A" Index
Cotton Stocks/Use Cotton Stocks/Use (World less China)(World less China) vs “A” Indexvs “A” Index
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Au
g
Oct
No
v
Feb Ap
r
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Dec 02 Dec 03
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Au
g
Oct
No
v
Feb Ap
r
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Dec 02 Dec 03
December Cotton FuturesDecember Cotton FuturesCents per Pound
Cents per Pound
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Au
g-9
8
Dec
-98
Ap
r-99
Au
g-9
9
Dec
-99
Ap
r-00
Au
g-0
0
Dec
-00
Ap
r-01
Au
g-0
1
Dec
-01
Ap
r-02
Au
g-0
2
Dec
-02
Ap
r-03
Nearby Futures
Farm Price
Cents per Pound
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Au
g-9
8
Dec
-98
Ap
r-99
Au
g-9
9
Dec
-99
Ap
r-00
Au
g-0
0
Dec
-00
Ap
r-01
Au
g-0
1
Dec
-01
Ap
r-02
Au
g-0
2
Dec
-02
Ap
r-03
Nearby Futures
Farm Price
Cotton Farm Price vs. NY FuturesCotton Farm Price vs. NY Futures
SummarySummary
• USDA’s exports are 69% of productionUSDA’s exports are 69% of production– Exports above 10.5 million bales will draw down Exports above 10.5 million bales will draw down
stocksstocks
• Continued pressure on mill useContinued pressure on mill use
• By historical measures, balance sheet By historical measures, balance sheet suggests better prices, but there are limiting suggests better prices, but there are limiting factorsfactors
• USDA’s exports are 69% of productionUSDA’s exports are 69% of production– Exports above 10.5 million bales will draw down Exports above 10.5 million bales will draw down
stocksstocks
• Continued pressure on mill useContinued pressure on mill use
• By historical measures, balance sheet By historical measures, balance sheet suggests better prices, but there are limiting suggests better prices, but there are limiting factorsfactors
MerchantsMerchantsGinnersGinners CrushersCrushers
ProducersProducers
CooperativesCooperatives
WarehousesWarehousesManufacturersManufacturers
