U.S. Army Analysis &

Center for Army Analysis (CAA)

Overview

Dr. Wm. Forrest Crain

Director, CAA

What kind of “analysis” are we talking about?

• Ends: Analyses as part of the Army and Joint leaders’ decision-making processes to:• Organize, man, train, equip, sustain, station, and resource the Army

• Inform policy decisions and conduct strategic, operational, and tactical operations

• Ways: Assist decision makers in solving complex problems by producing analysis and logical reasoning necessary to inform and underpin those critical decisions.• Assessments

• Force structure and force generation

• Force capability requirements

• Wargaming and campaign analysis

• Risk analysis

• Resource analysis (stationing, acquisition portfolios, etc.)

• Geospatial analysis

• Means: Operations Research Systems Analysis (ORSA)• Military: Functional Area 49 officers

• Civilian: Career Program 36, Series 1515 analysts

• “Contract”: Fully-Funded R&D Center, Academia, Commercial

2

Decision Support

to the Operational &

Institutional

Army

CAA6%

TRAC15%

AMSAA7%

Test & Eval17%

AMC (minus AMSAA)

15%

HQDA12%

Joint7%

TRADOC (minus TRAC)

7%

Other6%

Acquisition5%

Guard/Res1%

MEDCOM1%

FORSCOM1%

CAA

TRAC

AMSAA

Test & Eval

AMC

HQDA

Joint

TRADOC

Other

Acquisition

Guard/Res

MEDCOM

FORSCOM

The Army Analytic Community

Chart shows ORSA positions--Military Functional Area 49 and GS Series 1515. Many other Army civilians perform analysis in job series such as 301, 801, 1520, 1521, 1529, 1530, & 1531.

Army analysis community is very decentralized.

Study houses provide specialized resources for the whole Army.

The largest analytic

community in

DOD and Government

> 2200 Mil and Civ

Major Army Analysis Organizations

CAA Theater Warfighting in a Joint/Combined Context. Army-wide systems and issues.

TRAC Battlefield Operations - OrganizationalDesign & Force Effectiveness. Small Units up to Corps

System & Technology

Small Units

Force Level

Theater

AMSAA

Materiel Systems Performance AnalysisLogistics Systems & Network Performance Analysis

ATEC

Test

an

d E

valu

atio

n

CAA, TRAC, and AMSAA collaborate to provide the Army an effective, responsive, in-house analysis capability.

ATEC provides essential information to acquisition decision-makers. The Army calls on RAND, USMA, DUSA-TE, DASA-CE, USAMAA, and others to answer a variety of

questions. Study resources are managed by the Army G-8, Army Studies Program Management Office.

Forward Support Cell at AMC Headquarters

Center for Army Analysis

• CAA is a Field Operating Agency of the Deputy Chief of Staff, G-8.

• Vision: CAA is recognized authority on the independent analysis of land warfare interests in a joint and combined context.

• Mission: CAA conducts decision support analysis across the spectrum of conflict, in a Joint, Interagency, Intergovernmental, and Multinational (JIIM) context to inform critical senior level decisions for current and future national security issues.

6001 Goethals Road

Fort Belvoir, VA

XO: 703-806-5646

The Center for Army Analysis

Director, CAA

Deputy Director for Modeling and Simulation

Simulation Proponent & School

M&S Strategy and Resources

Chief of Staff

Chief Information Officer (CIO)

Deputy Chief of Staff

G-Staff

Strategic Analysis Integration Division

Technical Director

Campaign Analysis

Force Strategy

Deployment & Enablers

Operations Analysis

Resource Analysis

Strategic Studies

Forward Analytic

Support Team (FAST)Strategic Partners

EducationDoctorate 6%Masters 68%Bachelors 26%

6

Campaign Wargaming

Strategic Wargaming

CAA Forward Engagement

CAA Study Program By Sponsor

Over the last 5 years:

• 52% of studies, primarily programmatic

analyses, conducted in support of HQDA,

particularly HQDA G3/5/7 & G8.

• 17% of studies, primarily OPLAN-related

analyses, conducted in support of combatant

commands.

• 16% of studies, primarily current operations

related, conducted in support of deployed

joint/combined headquarters.

• 6% of studies, a mix of OPLAN and current

operations related, conducted in support of

Army Service component commands.

• 9% of studies conducted in support of other

Army, DoD, Joint organizations.

ACOM: Army Command

ASCC: Army Service component command

CCMD: Combatant Command

DCS: Deputy Chief of Staff

CAA’s study program focuses on the

major issues facing Senior Army

Leaders in both the operational and

institutional Army.

DRU: (Army) Direct Reporting Unit

JCS: Joint Chiefs of Staff

HQDA: Headquarters, Department of the Army

OPLAN: Operation Plan

(Nov 2012 – Current)

Supporting both the Operational and Institutional Force

CAA’s Force Structure Analysis

Homeland

Surge

Events

Today +10yrs +20yrs

De

ma

nd

Current

OperationsOther

Events

Foundational Activities

Support for Strategic Analysis

Force Generation Analysis

Surge

Scenarios’

Apportionment

& CONOPS

Confirmation Of

Apportioned Forces’

Capability To Achieve

Campaign Objectives

Campaign

Outcomes

That Impact

Quantification

of Supporting

Enablers

Demand For Units

(Apportioned & Enabler

SRCs) For Each Surge

Scenario

Rotational Depth: Supply of Forces Necessary to

Meet All Scenarios’ Deployment Demands

Rotational Utilization: Capacity of Fixed Supply to

Meet All Scenario Deployment Demands

Enabler Analysis

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

9 73 137 201 265 329 393 457 521 585 649 713 777 841 905 969

CAMPAIGN DAYS

PO

PU

LAT

ION

Phase II/III

86,269

(29%)

88,333

(30%)

83,721

(28%)

1 Corps, 4 Div, 18 BCT

145

Phase IV a

232,303

75,499

(33%)

83,919

(36%)

72,885

(31%)

167,696

62,655

(37%)

55,584

(33%)

49,457

(30%)

145,739

64,715

(44%)

37,088

(26%)

43,936

(30%)

Phase IV b 57,536

(63%)

15,636

(17%)

91,668

18,496

(20%)

TAA 16-20 Surge-3 Base Case Force Structure PopulationsTotal: 296,368

US Army: 258,323

Case G055-12June2013

977

1 Corps,

2 Div,

7 BCT

1 Corps,

3 Div,

12 BCT

1 Corps,

1 Div,

4 BCT

38,045

(13%)

577 705 833

USMC

BCT

EAB ENABLERS

THEATER ENABLERS

TAA 15-19 – US Army

248,577

231,280

175,811

147,763

87,393

UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO

Deployment Analysis

Surge

Scenarios’

Force

Flow

Apportioned

Units’

Arrival

Schedule

Campaign Analysis

9

CAA has the current capability, expertise, and experience to provide analysis through wargaming, simulation, and Table Top Exercises (TTXs) to support GCCs, ASCCs, Operational Joint Commands, the Army, and others.

OPLAN/CuOps (sponsor)

Policy/Strategy (sponsor)

OPLAN FMS, ‘14 (PACOM)

OPLAN Synch, ‘14 (SOCPAC)

OPLAN Synch, ‘14 (PACOM)

OPLAN Dev, ‘14 (PACFLT)

OPLAN Dev, ‘13 (PACOM)

Mali, ‘14 (USARAF)

Israel-Palestine, ‘13 (USSC)

3 x Iraq, ‘07-09 (MNF-I)

6 x Afghanistan, ‘05-14(ISAF)

FHA/DR Plan, ‘15 (EUCOM)

Def. Planning Scen. (sponsor)

Tech Near-Peer, ‘13 (AMC)

Sc 3.0, ‘14 (OSD/JS)

Sc 3.1, ’13-14 (OSD/JS)

Sust. Read. Mod. ‘15 (HQDA)

OPLAN Dev, ‘15 (USFK)

Reg. Align. For. ‘14 (HQDA)

OPLAN Dev, ‘15 (PACOM)

OPLAN Synch, ‘15 (PACOM)

OPLAN Dev, ‘15 (EUCOM)

Sc 7, ‘15 (HQDA)

Completed or Planned Analysis, Wargames and TTXs Conducted or Supported by the Center for Army Analysis (FY13-18)

Strat Seminar TTX, ‘16 (USFK)

Resiliency, ‘16 (PACOM)

Strategic Effects, ‘16 (USARPAC)

Dynamic Basing, ‘16 (PACOM)

NEO TTX, ‘17 (PACOM)

Multi Domain Battle ‘17 (PACOM)

OPLAN Analysis, ‘17 (USFK)

Set the Theater, ‘17 (USARPAC/8TH Army)

OPLAN Spt, ‘17 (USARPAC)

OPLAN Dev, ‘16 (EUCOM)

OPLAN Multi CCMD, ‘16 (EUCOM)

2 x OPLAN Dev, ’16, 17 (USAREUR)

Foreign Hum Asst, ‘16 (EUCOM) *

OPLAN Capstone, ‘17 (EUCOM)

2 x Posture Ph 0-1 EUCOM, ’16,17 (HQDA)

Sr LDR Readiness Forum, ’17 (CSA)

Ph 0-1 Theater Camp Plan, ‘17 (EUCOM)

Resistance Ops, ‘17 (SOCEUR)

Sc 7, ‘16 (OSD/JS -sponsored)

LRRDPP-GC, ‘16 (HQDA)

DSD-SC, ‘16 (HQDA)

NATO-Fires, ‘16 (DoD)

Blue Horizons, ‘17 (CSAF)

Third Party Intervention, ‘17 (NGIC) 1 x Afghanistan, ‘16 (RS)

Ongoing/Upcoming

OPLAN Analysis, ‘18 (CENTCOM)

Resistance Ops, ‘18 (SOCEUR)

Sr LDR Readiness Forum, ’18 (CSA)

Modernization, ’18 (AFC TF)

Multi Domain Battle ‘18 (PACOM)

CAA’s Institutional Analysis

• European Infrastructure

Consolidation

• Base Realignment &

Closure (BRAC)

• Reimbursable Tenants on

Army Installations

▪ Maintain the tools, data, and expertise to conduct stationing

analysis to support senior leader decisions

▪ Includes both operational and institutional organizations

▪ Analyzes installation’s ability to support DoD and Army strategic

goals

ASA-IEE

Stationing Analysis

HQDA

• ABCT Stationing (G-3/5/7)

• SFAB Stationing (G-3/5/7)

• Enduring Bases Policy &

Doctrine (ACSIM)

Institutional Analysis

▪ Maintain the tools, data, and expertise to conduct institutional

analysis to support senior leader decisions for current and

future national security issues.

• Mission Training Complex

Analysis (G-3/5/7)

• Analysis of Alternatives

(AoA) Process Improvement

(G-8)

• Impact of Sequestration (G-

8)

• Communications

Interoperability Capability

Appraisal Table (G-3/5/7)

• Fuel Distribution & Storage

• IMCOM Manpower Rqts

• Arlington National Cemetery Projects

HQDA

• Component Analysis for Rate

of Entry

• Warrior Transition Unit –

Forecast Model Update

Delivered Analyses: High Impact Studies

12As of 21 Aug 17

Year Recipient Study Impact

2015 G-3/5/7 & CSA “Coach’s Cards” CSA used at CJCS Nov ‘15 wargame; operational risk assessment

2015 G-3/5/7 & CSA Sustainable Readiness CSA briefed it at Senior Leader Readiness Forum

2015 DCG, USARPAC OPLAN Fratricide Identified problems and solutions for force structure and sourcing of simultaneous plans

2016 DepSecDef Scenario 7 “Start Conditions” Force posture and budget implications

2016 DepSecDef NATO Fires NATO strategy and OSD program

2016 VCSA AoA Process Improvement Reduced time, improved senior leader decision opportunities

2016 G-3/5/7TAA (Campaigns, Early Deployers, Enablers,

Force Generation)

“Shape” of the Army, primarily enablers and COMPO mix for early deployers; changes based on

emerging threats

2016 G-3/5/7 & CSA Scenario 7 Campaign CSA’s assessment of risk

2016 G-3/5/7 Simultaneity TTX G-3/5/7 used at CJCS Sep ‘16 wargame; operational risk assessment

2016 G-3/5/7 & CSA Operational Demand Analysis Input to CSA’s Senior Leader Readiness Forum

2016 G-3/5/7 & VCSA LRRDPP-GC VCSA briefed at DMAG

2016 G-3/5/7 Generating Force NCFA recommended that Congress require it

2016 G-3/5/7 Military Value Analysis Stationing priorities for gains/losses

2016 G-8 Nat’l Com. on the Future of the Army Impacted many of NCFA’s 63 recommendations

2016 ASA(IE&E) Non-Army Tenants Identified $millions in potential gains for the Army budget

2016 ASA(IE&E) Installation Readiness Analysis Impact on II PEG priorities

2016 CIO/G-6 Operational Data Improved JMDs and data systems for JTFs

2016 CoS, OCAR Reserve PACs Revision to RPAC structure

2016 DCOM, EUCOM EUCOM Wargame I Plan development

2016 J5, EUCOM EUCOM Wargame II Plan development

2016 DCOM, PACOM PACOM Resiliency Plan development

2016 DCOM, PACOM PACOM Dynamic Basing Plan development

2016 Cdr, USARPAC & SCOUSARPAC SCO TTX $400M in budget; cross-domain fight

2016 Cdr, RESOLUTE SPT RESOLUTE SPT Wargame Commander employed for Afghan Program of Record, and strategic input for next administration

2016 CENTCOM J2 Data Science for Network Prosecution Identified $10B in illicit funds

2017 CSA Sustainable Readiness 2017 Informed CSA Comments to GOs at SLRF

2017 CDR, USAREUR Landpower Fight in Europe Wargame 2017 Insights for continued OPLAN development

Discussion

13

U.S. Army Modeling and Simulation Office

• The U.S. Army Modeling and Simulation Office (AMSO) is the Army’s Enterprise-level organization for modeling and simulation policy, coordination and workforce management.

• Vision: An Army that effectively and efficiently employs modeling and simulation capabilities and tools, within and across all Army organizations, in support of both the Operating and Generating Forces.

• Mission: The Army Modeling Simulation Office • Develops the strategy and policy for Army Modeling and Simulation Enterprise• Executes effective governance and resource management through leadership and

synchronization • Leads coordination of the Army modeling and simulation enterprise and cross-

community areas including Joint, Intergovernment, Interagency, and Multinational environments, Industry and Academia

• Trains, Educates and Manages the Army Analysis, Modeling & Simulation M&S Workforce (Military and Civilian)

Coordinates and Synchronizes $11.9B over the 16-20 POM

& executes lifecycle management for 550 FA57 officers and 2300 CP36 DACs

• CAA led, monthly, forward-looking synchronization meeting with senior-level leaders from across Army analytic organizations to identify gaps, redundancies, and collaboration opportunities.

• Participating organizations include:

Synchronization of Army Analytic Community (SAAC)

CAA Forward Analytic

Support Team (FAST)

Analysis Support Focused

on the Institutional Army

TRAC TRADOC Analysis Center Fort Leavenworth, KS

AMSAA U.S. Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD

USAWC U.S. Army War College Carlisle Barracks, PA

ARL SLAD U.S. Army Research Laboratory Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD

Survivability/Lethality Analysis Directorate

AMC FSC U.S. Army Materiel Command Forward Support Cell Redstone Arsenal, AL

ASPMO Army Study Program Management Office Pentagon, Arlington, VA

SMDC/ARSTRAT U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command/ Huntsville, AL

U.S. Army Forces Strategic Command

AMSAA Strat Partner AMSAA Strategic Partner to Assistant Secretary of Pentagon, Arlington, VA

to ASA(ALT) the Army for Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology

G-1/PR Deputy Chief of Staff, G-1, Plans & Resources Pentagon, Arlington, VA

G-8/CIA Deputy Chief of Staff, G-8, Capabilities Integration Crystal City, Arlington, VA

G-8/FDA Deputy Chief of Staff, G-8, Warfighting Analysis Fort Belvoir, VA

G-8/PA&E Deputy Chief of Staff, G-8, Program Analysis Pentagon, Arlington, VA

and Evaluation

USMA U.S. Military Academy West Point, NY

ARCIC U.S. Army Capabilities Integration Center Joint Base Langley-Eustis, VA

ARCYBER U.S. Army Cyber Command Fort Belvoir, VA

IDA Institute for Defense Analyses Mark Center, Alexandria, VA

RAND RAND Corporation (Research And Development) Arlington, VA

MITRE MITRE Corporation McLean, VA

CAA Center for Army Analysis Fort Belvoir, VA

CAA’s Operations AnalysisOperations Analysis Division

16

Data Analytics:-Advancing Analytics and Metrics to Support Defensive Cyberspace Operations-Automation Enabling Analysis-Media Narrative Propagation-Support to USCENTCOM

Humanitarian Operations Support:-Population Displacement Model-Post-Conflict Return Migration

Wargames/Table-Top Exercises:-USARPAC TTX-EUCOM Foreign Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief-RS Force 1400 Wargame

Geospatial Analysis-Reachback support todeployed commands

Assessment Support/Training for:-Army Security Cooperation (DAMO-SSI)

-ARNORTH-Horn of Africa

-Special Operations Forces in Afghanistan-Asymmetric Warfare Group

-SOCCENT Country Assessments-CAA Strategic Planning

Doctrine Development

Survey Analysis-Southern Philippines Public

Perception Survey (USAID)-USAFRICOM

-ARSOUTH-SOCCENT

Select, Train, Deploy and Manage Analysts: - DoD Operational Data Tiger Team Lead- Current Operations Meetings- Deploying Analyst Course- Deployed Analysts at RS AAG and OGP- Strategic Partners at USPACOM and USEUCOM/USAFRICOM

NATO System Analysis and Studies Panels: 110 – Irregular Warfare and Operations Assessment

111 – Collection and Management of Data for Analysis Support to Operations

Collaboration