US Army Corps of Engineers

PLANNING SMARTBUILDING STRONG®

Risk PerceptionModule 2 – RC for FRM course

10:00-10:15 am Aug 20, 2012Stacy Langsdale

Institute for Water Resources2012

PLANNING SMARTBUILDING STRONG®

Definition of Risk

Risk = Probability x Consequences

2

Technical

^

(as calculated by Scientist/Engineer)

PLANNING SMARTBUILDING STRONG®

Definition of Risk

Risk = Hazard & Outrage

3

Subjective

^

(as perceived / felt by individuals)

More comprehensive What people care about Value laden => tolerable risk

PLANNING SMARTBUILDING STRONG®

How are these risks different?

4

PLANNING SMARTBUILDING STRONG®

Examples of Different Risk Communication Contexts

6

Hazard (danger)

High

Low High

Outrage Management

Crisis /Emergency

Communication

Public Relations

PrecautionAdvocacy

Outrage(fear, anger)

• Heart disease

• Climate change

• Cell use while driving

• Vaccines

• Nuclear radiation

• Gen Mod Food

PLANNING SMARTBUILDING STRONG®

(A Few) Risk Perception Factors

Individual Catastrophic

Familiar Unfamiliar

Voluntary Involuntary

Fair/equitable Unfair/inequitable

Immediate Delayed

7

?x

?x

PLANNING SMARTBUILDING STRONG®

Auto Exhaust (CO)

Model of Risk Perception

8

Factor 1: Unknown risk

Factor 2: Dread

Auto Accidents

Downhill Skiing

Bicycles

Asbestos Insulation

Water Fluoridation Saccharin

Skateboards

DNA Technology

Lead Paint

Handguns

Trampolines

Radioactive Waste

Caffeine

Source: Paul Slovic (1987 data)

Skyscraper Fires

Large Dams Nuclear Weapons

Microwave Ovens

Antibiotics

Precaution Advocacy

Outrage Management

Hazard

Outrage

PLANNING SMARTBUILDING STRONG®

10

PLANNING SMARTBUILDING STRONG®

Additional Factors that Affect Outrage & Acceptability

Degree of Risk Aversion Trust in institutions Media attention Accident history Benefits Origin Emotions; Denial

11

PLANNING SMARTBUILDING STRONG®

WHAT HAS YOUR EXPERIENCE BEEN IN FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT?

12