US Economic Outlook - Lower 2013 Growth Forecast on Slow Start to Year

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abcGlobal Research

Extensive revisions to historical US GDP data show the average growth rate from the end

of the recession to the first quarter of 2013 is now estimated at 2.2%, compared to 2.1%

previously. This increase in measured output is not enough to change our views on the

growth of potential GDP or on how much slack currently exists in the economy.

The revised GDP data do have an impact on our forecast for the growth of GDP this year.

The new data show a slower rate of growth than before for Q4 2012 and Q1 2013. That

means 2013 got off to a much slower start than previously estimated, and that the average

level of GDP over the four quarters of 2013 will likely be lower than we previously

forecast. In late June we estimated a 1.8% increase in the average level of GDP in 2013

compared to 2012. With the revised data in hand, that estimate falls to 1.5%. Our forecast

for growth in 2014 is unchanged at 2.4%. On a Q4 to Q4 basis our forecast for 2103 GDP

growth is only slightly changed, down to 1.9% from 2.0%. For 2014, the Q4/Q4 forecast

remains the same at 2.5%.

A slowdown in business investment has hampered the growth of GDP in the past year. We

expect a pickup in investment spending in the year ahead. However, there is a risk that

concerns over fiscal drag and slow growth in the global economy could temper investment

plans by many businesses. Consumers seem to have settled into a steady 2.0% growth

track and are unlikely to create a serious drag on economic growth in the year ahead. But

business spending is more of a wild card. Sluggishness in investment spending could

curtail GDP growth in the year ahead.

Given all the uncertainties that exist regarding both the economys near-term growth

prospects and the outlook for fiscal policy, we continue to believe that the FOMC will

hold policy steady at its next meeting in September. A decision to taper QE, in our view,

is more likely to come at the December FOMC meeting.

5 August 2013

US Economic Outlook

Lower 2013 growth forecast on slow start to year

New data show 2013 got off to a slower start than previously

estimated; the slow start lowers our forecast for 2013 GDP

growth to 1.5% from 1.8%

Our 2.4% GDP forecast for 2014 is unchanged

Our expectation for weak growth in the near term means wedo not expect the FOMC to start QE tapering until December

Economics

US

Kevin Logan

Chief US Economist

HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.

+1 212 525 3195

[email protected]

Ryan Wang

Economist

HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.+1 212 525 3181

[email protected]

View HSBC Global Research at:http://www.research.hsbc.com

ssuer of report: HSBC Securities(USA) Inc

Disclaimer &Disclosures

This report must be readwith the disclosures andthe analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it
http://www.research.hsbc.com/http://www.research.hsbc.com/


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New data, same trendNew GDP data confirm lackluster growth

On 31 July, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released a comprehensive revision of GDP data going all

the way back to 1929. The level of GDP was raised as spending on research and development was

re-classified as a capital expenditure rather than as an input into production. The development of

entertainment and artistic originals was also classified as fixed capital since many of these goods continue

to produce revenue for their creators, just as a piece of capital machinery might for a manufacturing firm.

While these changes may help statisticians better measure what is actually going on in the economy, they

do little to settle any of the debates that are currently important to financial markets. Investors are

interested in GDP data as a guide to the economys potential output, whether current production is close

to that potential and, if not, how fast is the economy growing toward that potential level. On this score,

the new data change perceptions only slightly.

The new data show that quarterly GDP growth averaged 3.43% from 1947 to 2007. The quarterly data

start in 1947, and 2007 marks the start of the recent financial crisis. The old data showed a 3.38% growth

rate. In other words, there is no significant difference. More things are being measured as part of GDP,

but the growth rate of these new items has been only fractionally faster than the rate of growth of the rest

of the economy.

The same conclusion can be reached even when the GDP data are broken up into shorter periods in order to

see whether there has been any change in the historical pattern of GDP growth. The measured growth of

GDP is nearly identical with both the old and new data for each of the three 20 year periods from 1947 to

2007. Growth averages 4.1% in the first 20 years, slips to 3.2% for the next 20 years, and then to 3.1%.

Table 1. HSBC US economic forecasts (if changed, previous months forecast in parentheses)

____Actual____ __________Projected__________ ___Q4/Q4 % change___ _Annual avg % change_Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014

Gross Domestic Product (% quarter annualized) 1.1 1.7 2.0 (1.9) 2.6 (2.5) 2.3 (2.5) 2.5 2.0 1.9 (2.0) 2.5 2.8 1.5 (1.8) 2.4Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers 0.5 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.1 1.7 2.3 2.4 1.6 2.3

Personal Consumption 2.3 1.8 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.2 1.9 2.0Business Fixed Investment -4.6 4.6 5.0 5.9 5.5 5.9 5.0 2.6 5.7 7.3 2.7 5.6Residential Construction 12.5 13.4 15.0 12.0 10.0 12.0 15.5 13.2 11.0 12.9 14.1 11.7Government Purchases -4.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -0.8 -1.0 -2.0 -0.6Net Exports (ppt contribution to GDP) -0.3 -0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1Inventory Change (ppt contribution to GDP) 0.9 0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.0

Industrial Production (% quarter annualized) 4.3 0.5 2.6 2.1 3.1 3.5 2.8 2.4 3.3 3.6 2.3 2.8Unemployment Rate (average) 7.7 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.0 8.1 7.5 7.0GDP Price index (% quarter annualized) 1.3 0.7 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.8Consumer Price Index (% year-on-year) 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.8 2.1 1.6 1.9Core Consumer Price Index, (% year-on-year) 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 2.1 1.8 1.8

Federal Budget Balance (FY), USDbn -1089 -647 -600as a % of nominal GDP -6.8 -3.9 -3.6Current Account Balance, USDbn (average) -440 -424 -400

as a % of nominal GDP -2.7 -2.5 -2.3

Source: HSBC


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Though the longer-term growth rates were little changed by the revisions, there were some noticeable

changes regarding recent growth in economic activity (Figure 1). Quarterly growth rates since the end of

the last recession in the second quarter of 2009 are now seen as a bit more volatile, and on average were

slightly stronger than then previously measured. The average growth rate from the end of the recession to

the first quarter of 2013 is now estimated at 2.2%, compared to 2.1% previously. One can be glad that a

bit more output was produced, but this slight increase in measured production does not change our views

on the growth of potential GDP or on how much slack currently exists in the economy.

Figure 1. Revised GDP data does little to change the pattern of growth

Source: BEA

Slightly faster growth, slightly lower inflation

With respect to how much slack is in the economy, its worth noting that the measurement of inflation

dropped slightly for the past few years. According to the newly revised data, the GDP price index -- the

most comprehensive measure of the average level of prices -- rose at a 1.6% annual rate from the end of

the recession through the first quarter of this year. That compares with a 1.7% rate as measured under the

old system. It is obviously not much of a difference, but it does mean that the slightly faster rate of GDP

growth since 2009, as now measured, does not appear to be closing the gap between the current level of

output and the economys potential level. If it were, then there would be a tendency for inflation to be

moving higher rather than lower.

Since the new GDP data suggest that a large output gap still persists, downward pressure on inflation may

continue in the near term. Over the past four quarters, inflation as measured by the GDP price index has

dropped to 1.4%, down from 1.7% in the second quarter of 2012 (see Figure 2). Meanwhile, the slowdown

in the Federal Reserves preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE price index, has been a bit more

pronounced, down from 1.9% a year ago to only 1.2% in the second quarter this year (see Figure 3).

-9.0%

-6.0%

-3.0%

0.0%

3.0%

6.0%

9.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Old

New

Average 1947 to 2007 = 3.4%

Average Q2 '09 to Q2 '13 = 2.2%


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Near-term growth outlook

The revised GDP data do have an impact on our forecast for the growth of GDP this year, though the

change is mostly technical. The new data show a slower rate of growth than before for Q4 2012 andQ1 2013. That means 2013 gets off to a much slower start than previously estimated, and that the average

level of GDP over the four quarters of 2013 will likely be lowered than we previously forecast. In late

June we estimated a 1.8% increase in the average level of GDP in 2013 compared to 2012. With the

revised data in hand, that estimate falls to 1.5%. Our forecast for growth in 2014 is unchanged at 2.4%.

On a Q4 to Q4 basis our forecast for 2013 GDP growth is only slightly changed, down to 1.9% from

2.0%. For 2014, the forecast remains the same at 2.5%.

Consumer spending resilient

GDP grew at an average 1.4% annualized rate in the first half of 2013, half the average 2.8% rate posted

for all of 2012. Somewhat surprisingly, the slowdown was not due to a cutback in the growth of spendingby consumers. Federal taxes were increased this year, with the temporary two percentage point reduction

in the payroll tax rate coming to an end, and with income tax rates being increased on high-income

earners. Despite that, consumer spending rose at an average 2.0% rate in the first half of this year, the

same as the average growth rate in 2012 (see Table 1 on page 2 for details of our GDP forecast).

Consumer finances have gotten some support from lower interest rates in the past year. For homeowners

in particular, the opportunity to re-finance mortgages at lower interest rates has pulled down the ratio of

debt-service payments to disposable income. Rising house prices have reduced the number of

homeowners who are underwater on their mortgages, enabling more people to qualify for re-financing.

In addition, rising house prices can increase consumer confidence and reduce the demand for

precautionary savings.

Figure 2. Revised GDP data show inflation moving lower Figure 3. Core PCE inflation well below the Feds 2.0% target

Source: BEA Source: BEA

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

GDP price index, YoY%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Core PCE, YoY%


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On top of that, the increase in average stock prices in the past year has led to a strong improvement in

household balance sheets, at least in the aggregate. In the first quarter of this year, the value of direct

equity holdings and mutual fund shares held by households reached a new peak, finally surpassing the

last peak valuation level seen in 2007. All of these developments have probably helped to offset the

adverse effects of higher tax rates in the first half of this year.

Still, these positive financial developments were not enough to lift the growth of consumer spending to a

higher level. Despite modest quarterly gyrations, the trend in consumer spending has not changed very

much since the end of the recession in the second quarter of 2009. Since that time, consumer spending has

grown at a 2.2% rate and has not shown any sign of accelerating off that subdued pace (see Figure 4).

Figure 4. Consumer spending stuck in a slower growth track compared to pre-crisis trend

Source: BEA

For the year ahead, we expect that consumer spending will stay in a roughly 2.0% growth track, held

down by the effect of tax increases, by the reluctance to increase the use of credit, and by slow growth in

nominal incomes. The situation will not be helped by the ongoing fiscal contraction by the federal

government or by the resulting cutbacks in government jobs.

Investment spending still sluggishThe addition of a new category of investment spending to the GDP data did not help the growth outlook

very much. In its comprehensive revision, the BEA added intellectual property products as a new

category of business investment. This grouping includes software, research and development

expenditures, and certain entertainment, literary and artistic originals. These items now make up

approximately 3.6% of GDP. The production of these items has been growing at roughly 3.4% annually,

right in line with the economys long-run growth rate. Since the end of the recession in 2009, the

contribution of this category to the overall growth rate of GDP has been in line with its share of GDP.

However, other categories of investment spending have started to flag recently. The overall growth of

business spending on equipment and new structures has decelerated sharply since the second quarter of

2012. As a result, business spending added only 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in the past year,

much less than the year before. GDP grew 2.8% from Q2 2011 to Q2 2012, with business investment

spending accounting for a full percentage point of that growth (see Figure 5).

9.3

9.7

10.1

10.5

10.9

11.3

11.7

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Real personal consumption expenditures, USD trillions

2.9% growth trend from earlier peak

2.2% growth trend from recession end


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Over the past four quarters, GDP has increased only 1.4%, a marked deceleration from the previous

years growth rate. The slowdown in business investment spending accounted for about half of the drop-

off in GDP growth, or 0.7 percentage points. The slowdown in business spending is somewhat surprising

since average profit margins are high, financing costs are low, and average stock prices have been rising

strongly for the past year. However, the growth in business profits has slowed. The BEAs measure of

economy-side corporate profits increased only 2.1% in the year through Q1 2013. Thats down from a

growth rate of 12.8% the year before. Profits are high as a share of national income, but the growth of

profits may be stalling out.

Figure 5. Business investment spending surprisingly soft over past year

Source: BEA

Business profits and business expectations about the future growth in demand are the key drivers of

business investment spending. If businesses start to feel more confident about the future growth of final

demand, investment spending may pick up again. We expect a faster pace of business investment

spending in the quarters ahead. A recent rebound in new orders for capital equipment points in that

direction. Spending on commercial structures such as factories and office buildings is also likely to pick

up, we believe, thanks to low long-term interest rates and an increased willingness of banks to lend for

commercial property development.

Even so, we do not expect an investment boom in the year ahead, just enough to help support a moderate

economic expansion at close to the economys trend growth rate. However, there is a risk that concerns

over fiscal drag and slow growth in the global economy could temper investment plans by many

businesses. Consumers seem to have settled into a steady 2.0% growth track and are unlikely to be a drag

on economic growth in the year ahead. But business spending is more of a wild card, and sluggishness in

investment spending could curtail GDP growth in the year ahead.

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Business investment spending, contribution to GDP growth, %


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Fiscal Drag and the Federal Reserve

Tax increases and cutbacks in spending by the federal government have imposed a serious drag on

economic growth this year. At the same time, uncertainties surrounding the effects of fiscal contraction

are influencing the outlook for monetary policy. Policymakers at the Federal Reserve are closely

monitoring the effects of federal fiscal policy. Chairman Ben Bernanke made this clear in his 18-19 July

monetary policy testimony to Congress:

The pickup in economic growth projected by most FOMC participants partly reflects their view thatfederal fiscal policy will exert somewhat less drag over time, as the effects of the tax increases and thespending sequestration diminish

As I noted, the economic outcomes that Committee participants saw as most likely in their Juneprojections involved continuing gains in labor markets, supported by moderate growth that picks up overthe next several quarters as the restraint from fiscal policy diminishes.

Over the past four quarters, cutbacks in federal spending have subtracted 0.3 percentage points from

overall GDP growth almost entirely associated with reduced spending on national defense (Figure 6).

Cutbacks in defense spending predate the onset of sequestration at the beginning of March this year.

The BEA reports that nominal expenditures on national defense peaked in the middle of 2011. Reduced

spending over the past two years has reflected the combined impact of the drawdown of US military

operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as the broader reductions to the defense budget that were

implemented prior to sequestration.

Figure 6. The fiscal drag on economic growth intensified in early 2013

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

These developments have had a significant impact on Department of Defenses (DoD) employment of

both military personnel and of civilian workers (Figure 7). The number of active duty military personnel

started to fall in the middle of 2011, reflecting the drawdown from overseas operations. Over the past two

years, the number of personnel on active duty has declined by about 50,000, to 1.39mn earlier this year.

It is worth noting that the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not include military personnel in its estimates of

either payroll or household employment. Only civilian employment within the DoD is included. DoD

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

National defense

Nondefense

Total federal government

Federal government contribution to real GDP growth over the past year, percentage points:


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civilian employment began to fall in early 2012, as the Department implemented reductions in spending

mandated by the Budget Control Act of 2011. After spending limits were cut further by sequestration this

year, the DoD instituted hiring freezes and layoffs of temporary workers, resulting in a continued drop in

civilian employment.

Figure 7. Job cuts at the Department of Defense are a drag on the overall growth in employment

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Defense

However, the most notable cutbacks in defense spending have not necessarily been reflected in lower

employment. According to the BEA, the most pronounced spending cuts have been taken the form of

fewer purchases of intermediate goods and services, particularly in maintenance categories such as

installation support, weapons support, and personnel support.

Most of these items had already seen a reduction in spending over the past two years, again indicative of

the drawdown of overseas military operations as well as broader budgetary cuts. But the slowdown

accelerated in Q4 2012, probably influenced in part by the imminent threat of sequestration as part of the

year-end fiscal cliff. After falling sharply in Q4, the level of intermediate purchases continued to

decline in Q1 and Q2.

Figure 8. Large dollar cutbacks in Defense purchases; employee compensation has yet to decline

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

1360

1380

1400

1420

1440

480

500

520

540

560

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13Department of Defense civilian payroll employment (left axis) Active duty military personnel (right axis)

Department of Defense employment, 000

175

200

225

250

275

300

150

175

200

225

250

275

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Defense employee compensation: military plus civilian (left axis)

Defense purchases of intermediate goods & services (right axis)

Government expenditures, USDbn (annual rate)


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Ongoing fiscal restraint presents a complication for the Federal Reserve in its assessment of the economy

and the appropriate course of monetary policy. Speaking before the National Bureau of Economic

Research on 10 July, Mr. Bernanke noted:

But there are also some risks which I think are very important for us as policy makers to look at. First,

it's still early to say that we have weathered the fiscal restraint. I think it's very difficult to know how long

the lags are between congressional decisions and actual spending and production decisions. So, we're

going to continue to watch and see whether growth is resilient going forward for the rest of the year

Again, our projections are that there'll be some pickup and growth, but that does depend on

overcoming the remainder of the fiscal headwinds.

Financial markets are once again paying close attention to the latest budgetary developments in

Washington. Congress must pass budget legislation by 30 September to avoid a government shutdown

associated with a lack of spending authority. Disagreement about potential changes to tax and spending

policies has raised the possibility that Congress will be go to the brink once again. At a minimum, a

lack of agreement could cause to Congress to resort to short-term, stop-gap measures to avoid a

shutdown, as occurred during the spring of 2011.

If a budgetary stand-off were to persist into October, fears surrounding the debt limit on federal

borrowing would come back into play. The soft deadline for the debt ceiling was reached in May; since

then the Treasury Department has relied on extraordinary measures to stay within its borrowing

headroom. The hard deadline for borrowing could be reached sometime in October or November, with the

exact timing dependent on the pace of Treasury tax receipts.

The minutes of recent FOMC meetings indicate that the policymakers at the Fed are inclined to reduce the

size of the current program of quantitative easing (QE) from the current USD85bn per month in combined

purchases of agency MBS and longer-term US Treasury securities sometime later this year. The timing

of that decision will be influenced not only by data on the labor market and the economys overall growth

but also by the outlook for further fiscal contraction.

The impact of budget sequestration on spending in the current fiscal year (through September) is still

uncertain. Furloughs of federal employees, for example, mostly started in July even though the process of

sequestration began in March. Direct cuts in federal spending may also intensify in the current quarter.

Meanwhile, whether sequestration will continue in the new budget year starting in October is still up in

the air. Leaders of both the Democratic and the Republican Parties are currently searching for some

compromise that will replace the near-term spending cuts required by sequestration with longer-term

cutbacks in entitlement spending. The outcome of those negotiations will have an important bearing on

the economys near-term growth prospects, and by implication, on the FOMCs decision regarding when

to start tapering the size of the current QE program.

Given all the uncertainties that exist regarding the economys near-term growth prospects and also

regarding the outlook for fiscal policy, we continue to believe that the FOMC will hold steady at the next

policy meeting in September. A decision to taper QE, in our view, is more likely to come at the DecemberFOMC meeting, particularly if our expectation for a pickup in GDP growth in Q4 turns out to be correct.


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Disclosure appendix

Analyst Certification

The following analyst(s), economist(s), and/or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, certifies(y) that the

opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) or issuer(s) and/or any other views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their

personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific

recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Kevin Logan and Ryan Wang

Important DisclosuresThis document has been prepared and is being distributed by the Research Department of HSBC and is intended solely for the

clients of HSBC and is not for publication to other persons, whether through the press or by other means.

This document is for information purposes only and it should not be regarded as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer

to buy the securities or other investment products mentioned in it and/or to participate in any trading strategy. Advice in this

document is general and should not be construed as personal advice, given it has been prepared without taking account of the

objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Accordingly, investors should, before acting on the advice,

consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs. If necessary, seek

professional investment and tax advice.

Certain investment products mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in some states or countries, and they may

not be suitable for all types of investors. Investors should consult with their HSBC representative regarding the suitability of

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The value of and the income produced by the investment products mentioned in this document may fluctuate, so that an

investor may get back less than originally invested. Certain high-volatility investments can be subject to sudden and large falls

in value that could equal or exceed the amount invested. Value and income from investment products may be adversely

affected by exchange rates, interest rates, or other factors. Past performance of a particular investment product is not indicative

of future results.

HSBC and its affiliates will from time to time sell to and buy from customers the securities/instruments (including derivatives)

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Analysts, economists, and strategists are paid in part by reference to the profitability of HSBC which includes investment

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For disclosures in respect of any company mentioned in this report, please see the most recently published report on that

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* HSBC Legal Entities are listed in the Disclaimer below.

Additional disclosures

1 This report is dated as at 05 August 2013.2 All market data included in this report are dated as at close 02 August 2013, unless otherwise indicated in the report.3 HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its

Research business. HSBC's analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of Researchoperate and have a management reporting line independent of HSBC's Investment Banking business. Information Barrier

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Global

Stephen KingGlobal Head of Economics+44 20 7991 6700 [email protected]

Karen WardSenior Global Economist+44 20 7991 3692 [email protected]

Madhur Jha+44 20 7991 6755 [email protected]

Europe & United Kingdom

Janet HenryChief European Economist+44 20 7991 6711 [email protected]

Simon Wells

Chief UK Economist+44 20 7991 6718 [email protected]

Matteo Cominetta+44 20 7991 6708 [email protected]

John Zhu+44 20 7991 2170 [email protected]

GermanyStefan Schilbe+49 211910 3137 [email protected]

FranceMathilde Lemoine+33 1 4070 3266 [email protected]

North America

Kevin LoganChief US Economist+1 212 525 3195 [email protected]

Ryan Wang+1 212 525 3181 [email protected]

David G Watt+1 416 868 8130 [email protected]

Asia Pacific

Qu HongbinManaging Director, Co-head Asian Economics Research andChief Economist Greater China+852 2822 2025 [email protected]

Frederic NeumannManaging Director, Co-head Asian Economics Research+852 2822 4556 [email protected]

Leif Eskesen

Chief Economist, India & ASEAN+65 6658 8962 [email protected]

Paul BloxhamChief Economist, Australia and New Zealand+612 9255 2635 [email protected]

Adam Richardson+612 9006 5848 [email protected]

Donna Kwok+852 2996 6621 [email protected]

Trinh Nguyen+852 2996 6975 [email protected]

Ronald Man+852 2996 6743 [email protected]

Sun Junwei+86 10 5999 8234 [email protected]

Sophia Ma+86 10 5999 8232 [email protected]

Su Sian Lim+65 6658 8963 [email protected]

Izumi Devalier+852 2822 1647 [email protected]

Julia Wang+852 2822 4687 [email protected]

Global Emerging Markets

Pablo GoldbergHead of Global EM Research+1 212 525 8729 [email protected]

Bertrand DelgadoEM Strategist+1 212 525 0745 [email protected]

Emerging Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa

Murat UlgenChief Economist, Central & Eastern Europe and sub-Saharan

Africa+44 20 7991 6782 [email protected]

Alexander MorozovChief Economist, Russia and CIS+7 495 783 8855 [email protected]

Artem BiryukovEconomist, Russia and CIS+7 495 721 1515 [email protected]

Agata UrbanskaEconomist, CEE+44 20 7992 2774 [email protected]

Melis MetinerEconomist, Turkey+90 212 376 4618 [email protected]

Middle East and North Africa

Simon WilliamsChief Economist+971 4 423 6925 [email protected]

Liz MartinsSenior Economist+971 4 423 6928 [email protected]

Latin America

Andre LoesChief Economist, Latin America+55 11 3371 8184 [email protected]

ArgentinaJavier FinkmanChief Economist, South America ex-Brazil+54 11 4344 8144 [email protected]

Ramiro D Blazquez

Senior Economist+54 11 4348 2616 [email protected]

Jorge MorgensternSenior Economist+54 11 4130 9229 [email protected]

BrazilConstantin JancsoSenior Economist+55 11 3371 8183 [email protected]

MexicoSergio MartinChief Economist+52 55 5721 2164 [email protected]

Central AmericaLorena DominguezEconomist

+52 55 5721 2172 [email protected]

Global Economics Research Team

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US Economic Outlook - Lower 2013 Growth Forecast on Slow Start to Year

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