U.S. ECoSU.S. Eastern Continental Shelf Carbon Budget:
Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Analysis
A project of the NASA Earth System EnterpriseInterdisciplinary Science Program
Ocean Color Research Team MeetingNewport, RI, April 2006
U.S. ECoSScience Team
Eileen Hofmann (ODU) project oversight, 1D modelingMarjorie Friedrichs (ODU) 1D modeling and data assimilationChuck McClain (GSFC) project oversight, remote sensing dataSergio Signorini (GSFC) satellite data analysisAntonio Mannino (GSFC) carbon cyclingCindy Lee (SUNY-SB) carbon cyclingJay O’Reilly (NOAA) satellite data analysisDale Haidvogel (RU) circulation modelingJohn Wilkin (RU) circulation modelingKatja Fennel (RU) biogeochemical modelingSybil Seitzinger (RU) food web and nutrient dynamicsJim Yoder (URI) food web and nutrient dynamicsRay Najjar (PSU) oxygen data, climate modelingDavid Pollard (PSU) climate modeling
U.S. ECoS
1. What are the relative carbon inputs to the MAB and SAB from terrestrial run-off and in situ biological processes?2. What is the fate of DOC input to the continental shelf from estuarine and riverine systems? 3. What are the dominant food web pathways that control carbon cycling and flux in this region? 4. Are there fundamental differences in the manner in which carbon is cycled on the continental shelves of the MAB and SAB? 5. Is the carbon cycle of the MAB and SAB sensitive to climate change?
Goal: To develop carbon budgets for the U.S. east coast continental shelf (Mid-Atlantic Bight and South Atlantic Bight)
Research Questions:
Outline of Presentation
• Theme 1: Development and implementation of circulation, biogeochemistry, and carbon cycling models for the east coast of the U.S.
• Theme 2: Data analysis effort – includes historical in situ measurements and satellite-derived data
• Theme 3: Limited field measurement effort
• Theme 4: Implementation of data assimilative models
• Theme 5: Interfacing circulation and biogeochemical models with climate models
Theme 1: Circulation and biogeochemical modeling
Northeast North American shelf model (NENA)
Theme 1: Circulation and biogeochemical modeling
SimulatedSalinity
4m August 2002
WOA98Salinity
10mAugust
North-south gradients agree, simulations produce mesoscale variability
Wilkin, Haidvogel
Theme 1: Circulation and biogeochemical modeling
Freshwaterbudgets- tides
Boundary forcing – coldbias in Hycomsolutions
Forcing fields for wind, heat flux, shortwave radiation
Wilkin, Haidvogel
Theme 1: Circulation and biogeochemical modeling
NO3
Chlorophyll
Largedetritus
Organic matter
N2 NH4 NO3
Water column
SedimentSediment
Phytoplankton
NH4
Mineralization
Uptake
Nitrification
Nitrification
Grazing
Mortality
Zooplankton
Smalldetritus
Aerobic mineralizationAerobic mineralizationDenitrificationDenitrification
Fennel et al., inpress, GBC
Theme 1: Circulation and biogeochemical modeling
3.3 DI N3.3 DI N0.9 PON0.9 PON
2.9 PON2.9 PON
2.5 DI N2.5 DI N
DNF: 5.3 TNDNF: 5.3 TN
Rivers: 1.8 TNRivers: 1.8 TN
0.4 TN0.4 TN
4.2 TN4.2 TN
Fluxes in 10Fluxes in 101010 mol N ymol N y--11
3.3 DI N3.3 DI N0.9 PON0.9 PON
2.9 PON2.9 PON
2.5 DI N2.5 DI N
DNF: 5.3 TNDNF: 5.3 TN
Rivers: 1.8 TNRivers: 1.8 TN
0.4 TN0.4 TN
4.2 TN4.2 TN
Fluxes in 10Fluxes in 101010 mol N ymol N y--11
3.3 DI N3.3 DI N0.9 PON0.9 PON
2.9 PON2.9 PON
2.5 DI N2.5 DI N
DNF: 5.3 TNDNF: 5.3 TN
Rivers: 1.8 TNRivers: 1.8 TN
0.4 TN0.4 TN
4.2 TN4.2 TN
Fluxes in 10Fluxes in 101010 mol N ymol N y--11
3.3 DI N3.3 DI N0.9 PON0.9 PON
2.9 PON2.9 PON
2.5 DI N2.5 DI N
DNF: 5.3 TNDNF: 5.3 TN
Rivers: 1.8 TNRivers: 1.8 TN
0.4 TN0.4 TN
4.2 TN4.2 TN3.3 DI N3.3 DI N0.9 PON0.9 PON
2.9 PON2.9 PON
2.5 DI N2.5 DI N
DNF: 5.3 TNDNF: 5.3 TN
Rivers: 1.8 TNRivers: 1.8 TN
0.4 TN0.4 TN
4.2 TN4.2 TN3.3 DI N3.3 DI N0.9 PON0.9 PON
2.9 PON2.9 PON
2.5 DI N2.5 DI N
DNF: 5.3 TNDNF: 5.3 TN
Rivers: 1.8 TNRivers: 1.8 TN
0.4 TN0.4 TN
4.2 TN4.2 TN
Fluxes in 10Fluxes in 101010 mol N ymol N y--11
Fennel et al., in press, GBC
Sources andsinks of nitrogen
Role of shelfdenitrification
Theme 1: Circulation and biogeochemical modeling
Simulated annual air-sea flux of CO2
Explicit inorganic carbon cycling
Positive values indicate uptake by ocean
Outer Mid-Atlantic Bight continentalshelf is a sink for atmospheric CO2
Two regions of no net uptake off NJdue to outgassing during summer thatresults from intermittent upwelling ofcarbon-rich water from below seasonal thermocline
Fennel
Theme 2: Satellite and in situ data analyses
OC4v4 Clark
Carder GSM01
Intercomparison of Chlorophyll-a Algorithms: May 14, 2000
O’Reilly,Signorini,McClain
In situ productivity measurements
Satellite productivity measurements
Theme 2: Satellite and in situ data analyses
O’Reilly
Annual Ecosystem Variability
O’Reilly
Theme 2: Satellite and in situ data analyses
Analyses of forcingfunctions and chlorophyll (response)
Top- size of North Atlantic Subtropical gyre Middle- Cape FearRiver dischargeBottom- Chlorophyll
Signorini, McClain
Theme 2: Satellite and in situ data analyses
Analyses offorcing functionsand response
Sea surface heightanomaly and NASGsize
Signorini, McClain
Theme 2: Satellite and in situ data analyses
Air-Sea Flux of Oxygen – NODC historical data
MAB SAB
MAB- net ingassing in inner shelf, net outgassing over mid and outer shelfSAB- net outgassing in spring, summer, fall
Siewert, Najjar
Themes 1 and 2: Modeling and satellite analyses
Fennel, Wilkin, O’Reilly, Signorini,McClain
Themes 1 and 2: Modeling and satellite analyses
Model-datacomparisons
Fennel, Wilkin,O’Reilly
Themes 1 and 2: Modeling and satellite analyses
Fennel, Wilkin,O’Reilly
Themes 1 and 2: Modeling and satellite analyses
Satellite-derived primary production (PP)
using VGPM2
VGPM2 applied to NENA-simulated fields
Modeled PP using NENA
Fennel, Wilkin, O’Reilly
Themes 1 and 2: Modeling and satellite analyses
Model-datacomparison
Wilkin, O’Reilly
Theme 3: Field measurements
• ODU cruises - one day, 8 hour cruise, 4 stations• NIP – grid of stations, 3-4 day cruises
• Carbon, nutrients, chl a, pigments, absorb., …• Estimate fluxes - model• Algorithm development
ARCHIVED SAMPLES2002 to present
Chesapeake Bay and adjacent coastal waters – ODU monthlycruises and NASA NIP (Mannino)
Theme 4: Biogeochemical data assimilation
Developed a 1-D data assimilative ‘Modeling Testbed’
This framework includes:mixing, advection, diffusion, attenuation, sinking subroutines
This framework requires:forcing fields: T, MLD, PAR, w, Kvboundary and initial conditionsecosystem model subroutineadjoint of ecosystem model subroutinebiogeochemical data for validation/assimilation
This framework will be used to:Perform parameter sensitivity/optimization analyses Test new parameterizations and formulationsCompare multiple models at a single siteCompare model performance at various sites
Theme 4: Biogeochemical data assimilation
5 m 55 m 115 m3D1D
Comparison of simulated nitrate from 1D and 3D models at a site on MAB continental shelf
Friedrichs
Theme 4: Biogeochemical data assimilation
7 (of 18) parameters can be independently estimated
Chl2C_m
PhyIS
PhyMR
Vp0
ZooGR
CoagR
Sremin
Identical Twin Numerical Experiments - Use SeaWiFS and in situ data
Friedrichs
Theme 5: Climate Modeling
How will coastal regions respond to climate change, and what are the feedbacks on the carbon cycle?
Force the circulation/biogeochemical model with climate change scenarios:
Present day scenario: 1980-2000
100 years later scenario: 2080-2100
Using RegCM3
Theme 5: Climate Modeling
Simulated surfaceair temperature
Observed surfaceair temperature fromclimatology
Pollard, Najjar
Theme 5: Climate Modeling
Six-hourly precipitation fields from a 10-yearsimulation using present conditions
Pollard, Najjar
Summary
U.S. ECoS Goal: To develop carbon budgets for the U.S. east coast continental shelf waters
• Numerous results from all components of program• Model-data comparisons are well developed• Construct carbon budgets for MAB and SAB• No component by itself can do this – synthesis approach• Requires modeling effort coupled with satellite and in situ
data analyses • Ongoing effort - observationalists and modelers working
together in an interactive manner
