www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

Propane situation update

February 5, 2014 | Washington, DC

By Energy Information Administration

NOAA forecast for below normal temperatures across much of the country through February 14; somewhat improved after

U.S. Energy Information Administration 2

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center, made February 4

6-10 day outlook 8-14 day outlook

Heating fuel market shares by region

U.S. Energy Information Administration 3

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey

DC

Share of homes by primary space heating fuel within each Census Region (fuels add to 100%)

Northeast

South

Midwest

West

U.S. total116 million homes

natural gas

propaneheating oilelectricity

woodkerosene/other/no heating

propane 4.5%

7%

81%

5%

10%

4%

Northeast

Midwest

South

West

heating oil

Regional share of all U.S. households by primary heating fuel

U.S. Energy Information Administration 4

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey

14%

36%

34%

16%

Northeast

Midwest

South

West

propane

20%

31%

23%

26%

Northeast

Midwest

South

West

natural gas

Share of homes by primary space heating fuel across Census Regions (regions add to 100%)

Propane share of space heating demand by key regions and states

U.S. Energy Information Administration 5

Source: Census Bureau, 2011

StatePropane-Heated

HomesShare of

Total HomesMichigan 320,522 8%

Wisconsin 245,071 11%

Ohio 240,185 5%

Minnesota 213,359 10%

Missouri 212,317 9%

Illinois 189,025 4%

Indiana 176,520 7%

Iowa 162,117 13%

Kentucky 113,175 7%

Tennessee 110,486 4%

Oklahoma 103,017 7%

Kansas 83,386 7%

Nebraska 57,442 8%

South Dakota 54,015 17%

North Dakota 38,617 13%

Midwest Total 2,319,254 7%

StatePropane-Heated

HomesShare of

Total HomesNew York 237,738 3%

Pennsylvania 188,880 4%

New Hampshire 72,091 14%

Massachusetts 68,517 3%

New Jersey 60,990 2%

Connecticut 43,849 3%

Maine 41,477 7%

Vermont 38,497 15%

Rhode Island 10,361 3%

Northeast Total 762,400 4%

PADD 2 (Midwest) propane inventories have trended lower on strong crop drying and extremely cold temperatures

U.S. Energy Information Administration 6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14

inventory level

rolling five-year

averageand range

Typical corn harvest dates(Sept 20 – Nov 10)

Rollingfive-yearaverage

15.6 MMbbls

PADD 2 propane inventories(million barrels)

Source: EIA, Weekly Petroleum Status Report, data through January 31

January 319.6 MMbbls

Conway (KS) price premium over Mt. Belvieu (TX) grew rapidly in late January, but has since narrowed

U.S. Energy Information Administration 7

propane and propylene spot prices dollars per gallon

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Thomson Reuters, data through February 4

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14

corn harvestcold weather

Conway, Kansas (PADD 2)

Mont Belvieu, Texas (PADD 3)

price spread(Conway minusMont Belvieu)

The positive spread between Conway and Mont Belvieu will draw supplies northward into areas most impacted by cold weather

Oct-13 Mar-14

Retail propane prices in the Midwest have risen sharply

dollars per gallon

PADD 1 Heating Oil

PADD 2 Heating Oil

PADD 1 Propane

PADD 2 Propane

Source: State Heating Oil and Propane Program, data through February 3

U.S. Energy Information Administration 8

this winter through February 3

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

Oct-11 Mar-12

winter 2011-2012

Oct-12 Mar-13

last winter

State-reported residential retail prices for states in the Midwest

U.S. Energy Information Administration 9

1/6/14 1/13/14 1/20/14 1/27/14 2/3/14Residential retail price (dollars per gallon, excluding taxes)Indiana 2.806 2.849 2.939 4.215 4.265

Iowa 1.960 1.997 2.584 4.709 3.590

Kentucky 2.517 2.540 2.577 3.785 3.852

Michigan 2.532 2.575 2.638 3.611 3.766

Minnesota 2.322 2.330 2.439 4.610 3.967

Missouri 2.251 2.265 2.433 3.997 3.672

Nebraska 1.911 1.920 2.005 4.073 3.357

North Dakota 2.263 2.273 2.322 4.569 3.839

Ohio 2.890 2.950 2.999 3.731 3.908

South Dakota 2.065 2.081 2.088 4.107 3.664

Wisconsin 2.194 2.241 2.276 4.490 3.945

Note: Illinois, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee do not report information Source: EIA, State Heating Oil and Propane Program, data through February 5http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/heatingoilpropane/

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

U.S. propane production and trade trends

U.S. Energy Information Administration 10

U.S. propane and propylene production, imports, and exportsthousand barrels per day

Source: EIA, Petroleum Supply Monthly through November 2013

production

exportsimports

Since January 2011, production and exports have has grown by about 300 thousand barrels per day. Trade press reports suggest exports fell in late January 2014.

Winter 2013 propane supply diagram

11U.S. Energy Information Administration

For more information

12

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