Tinker, 2014
Scott W. Tinker Bureau of Economic Geology
The University of Texas at Austin, Austin
Oilfield Breakfast Forum October, 2014
U.S. Shale Gas in 2030
Tinker, 2014
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
BC
F/D
ay
Total North America Total S. & Cent. America Total Europe & Eurasia
Total Middle East Total Africa Total Asia Pacific
Global Natural Gas Production
115 Tcfy
Source: BP Statistical Review 2012
Tinker, 2014
0 3,000 6,000 12,000 9,000 15,000 30,000 18,000 21,000 24,000 27,000
Resources (TcF)
Pro
du
cti
on
co
st
(2008
$/M
btu
)
LNG
Sour
Arc
tic
De
ep
Wa
ter
Shale C
oa
l B
ed
M
eth
an
e
Pro
du
ce
d
Co
nv
en
tio
na
l
Tight
15
10
5
0
~5,600
Tcf
Global Natural Gas
Resources v. Cost
QAe980
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook (2009)
Global Consumption
115 Tcfy
Tinker, 2014
5
10
15
20
25
30
Mark
ete
d P
rod
ucti
on
(Tcf)
0 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Pro
ved
Reserv
es (T
cf)
U.S. Natural Gas Production and Reserves
Data: BP World Energy 2012
End-of-Year
U.S. Proved Reserves
Annual
U.S. Production
Tinker, 2014
U.S. Natural Gas Production (TcF)
http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/about_shale_gas.cfm
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Shale gas
Coalbed methane
Tight gas
Non-associatedoffshoreAlaska
Associated with oil
Non-associatedonshore
14 TcF
9 TcF
23 TcF
Tinker, 2014
Unconventional Resource Plays
QAei2915
Utica
HilliardBaxterMancos-Niobrara
Cody
Heath Fm
Hermosa
Mancos
Lewis
Niobrara Fm
Mowry
Monterey- T emblor Pierre- Niobrara
Monterey
Manning Canyon
Kreyenhagen
Gothic-Hovenweep
Miocene
Miocene-Oligocene
Eocene
Cenozoic
Cretaceous
Jurassic
T rassic
Mesozoic
Permian
Pennsylvanian
Mississippian-Penn
Mississippian-Devonian
Devonian
Ordovician
Mississippian Cambrian
Paleozoic
T ight sands
Basins
Utica
Marcellus
Bakken
Cline
W oodford
Bend
W olfcamp
Eagle Ford
New Albany
Niobrara Fm
Excello-Mulky
Fayetteville
Niobrara- Mowry
Gammon
(Midland)
Pearsall
W oodford-Caney
Chattanooga
Utica- Collingwood
Antrim
Antrim
Antrim
T uscaloosa
Haynesville
Floyd-Neal
Conasauga
Floyd-Chattanooga
Chattanooga
Barnett
A valon-Bone Spring W olfberry
W olfcamp (Delaware)
Barnett- W oodford
Modified from: EIA and National Geographic
Tinker, 2014
Unconventional Resource Plays
Miocene
Miocene-Oligocene
Eocene
Cenozoic
Cretaceous
Jurassic
T rassic
Mesozoic
Permian
Pennsylvanian
Mississippian-Penn
Mississippian-Devonian
Devonian
Ordovician
Mississippian Cambrian
Paleozoic
T ight sands
Basins
Marcellus
Fayetteville
Haynesville
Barnett
Bakken
Eagle Ford
Permian
Basin
Modified from: EIA and National Geographic
Tinker, 2014
Bureau of Economic Geology
U.S. Shale Gas Integrated Study
What is the total resource base in place?
What portion is technically recoverable?
What potion is economically recoverable?
What is the long-term production outlook?
BEG Shale Reserves and Production Project
Tinker, 2014
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.025
0.030
0.035
0.040
0.045
0.050
29 34 39 44 49 55 60 65 70
Re
lati
ve
Fre
qu
en
cy
Cumulative Production (Tcf)
35 Tcf
56 Tcf
OGIP 444 TcF
Browning, J. et al. 2013. SPE Econ & Mgmt
Barnett Monte Carlo Production Distribution
Tinker, 2014
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
10 12 14 17 19 21 23 26 28
Re
lati
ve
Fre
qu
en
cy
Cumulative Production (Tcf)
Fayetteville Monte Carlo Production Distribution
13 Tcf 23 Tcf
OGIP 80 TcF
BEG Shale Reserves and Production Project
Tinker, 2014
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
0.04
0.045
0.05
0.055
14 24 33 43 52 62 72 81
Re
lati
ve
Fre
qu
en
cy
Cumulative Production (Tcf)
24 Tcf 62 Tcf
Haynesville Monte Carlo Production Distribution
OGIP 489 TcF
BEG Shale Reserves and Production Project
Tinker, 2014
Model: Rice University, Medlock, 2012
EIA
Forecast vs. Actual
Tinker, 2014
Subsurface Nanosensing
Tinker, 2014
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
10
00
s B
bl
Da
y
Total North America Total S. & Cent. America Total Europe & Eurasia
Total Middle East Total Africa Total Asia Pacific
Global Oil Production
Source: BP Statistical Review 2012
30.5 BBY
Tinker, 2014
Long-Term Oil Supply Resources and Cost
0 2000 4000 10,000 6000 8000
140
20
0
Resources (billion barrels)
Pro
du
cti
on
co
st
(2
00
8 $
)
Coal
to
liquids
Gas
to
liquids
Oil shales
Shale oil
Pro-
duced MENA
Other conventional
oil
Deepwater and
ultra-deepwater
40
60
80
100
120
Heavy
oil
&
bitumen
EOR
Arctic
CO2 EOR
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook (2009)
~1,300
Bbo
Global Consumption
31 Bby
Tinker, 2014
Advanced Energy Consortium
• Founded in 2008, the AEC membership now comprises 8 of the largest international oil and gas production and service companies.
• The Bureau of Economic Geology (BEG) at The University of Texas at Austin serves as the managing organization for the AEC and maintains offices in Austin and Houston.
Source: BEG Advanced Energy Consortium
Tinker, 2014
AEC Research Portfolio
1) MOBILITY
4) MICRO-FABRICATED
SENSORS
3) NANOMATERIAL
SENSORS
2) CONTRAST AGENTS
Source: BEG Advanced Energy Consortium
Tinker, 2014
Research to Application Pipeline
AEC
Research Thrust Engine
Pre Competitive
Member
Driven Use Cases
Hydrofrac
EOR
Waterflood
Experiments and Demos
Nano
Concepts
AEC Filtering and
Integration of Ideas
Research
Thrusts
Building
Blocks
Application
Ideas
Prototypes
Source: BEG Advanced Energy Consortium
Tinker, 2014
Use Cases = Field Applications
Source: BEG Advanced Energy Consortium
Tinker, 2014
• Shale Gas
Will be a contributor to global energy
Above ground challenges are real
Alternatives are not perfect
Won’t last forever
• Subsurface Nanosensors
Are getting close to reality
Will improve reservoir characterization
Should improve recovery
Summary
Tinker, 2014
Thanks!