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COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
The U.S. Solar Industry: Story Behind the Headlines
Shayle KannManaging Director, Solar
GTM Research
U.S. Solar Market Insight
November 16, 2011OR – Day 67 A.S.
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
2011 Has Been a Tough Year For Solar Manufacturers
Source: GTM Research
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
The Fall-Out in the U.S.
Bankruptcies
Plant Closures
Media (Over)Reaction
Trade War
Vs.
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Trade Petition - Understanding Market Impacts
Data is sourced from CA, NJ and MD, which together comprise over 50% of the U.S. market. However, actual market shares for the entire country may differ. Also note that this refers to manufacturer headquarters, not location of manufacturing facilities.
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Data is sourced from CA, NJ and MD, which together comprise over 50% of the U.S. market. However, actual market shares for the entire country may differ. Also note that this refers to manufacturer headquarters, not location of manufacturing facilities.
Trade Petition - Understanding Market Impacts
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Trade Petition – Near-Term Questions
• Timing – 1603 vs. Potential Duties
• Q4 Shipment Boom – Bigger or Smaller?
• Financing and Redesign for Late-Stage Projects
• Will Suppliers Take on the Duty Risk?
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
The Growing Importance of the U.S. End Market
Source: GTM Research/SEIA® U.S. Solar Market Insight TM
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
U.S. States With >10 MW of PV Installations, 2007
NV
NJ
COCA
Source: GTM Research
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
U.S. States With >10 MW of PV Installations, 2011E
HI
NVCO
CA
FL
AZ NM
TX
OHPA
MANY
NC
NJ
OR
Source: GTM Research
DEMD
TN
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
The Latest Installation Numbers
Source: GTM Research/SEIA® U.S. Solar Market Insight TM
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Non-Residential Market In a State of Flux
Source: GTM Research
Third-Party Finance
Providers
Module Suppliers w/ Residential
Lease Programs
Finance Providers w/
Subcontracted Installations
Residential Integrators/Financ
e Providers
Tax Equity
Providers
U.S. Residential Solar Lease Landscape
Source: GTM Research
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Small Duty; Chinese Suppliers Remain Active
Project Financing
GlobalSupply/Demand
Balance
Chinese Cell /ModuleImport Duty
1603 Cash Grant
Extension
Tax Equity Supply
State Legislati
on
New Market Development
Dri
vers
Const
rain
ts
Global Oversupply
Global Undersupply
Large Duty; Disappearance of Chinese Suppliers
Increased Tax Equity from Corporates, New Entrants
Tax Equity Bottleneck, Rates >15%-17%
Module Pricing State Market Dynamics
NY SolarJobs Act
NJ: S2371
PA: HB 1580
OH RPS Roll-Back
CSI FundingDepletion
Growth inTX, MO,IL, PR
The Spectrum of Possibilities for 2012
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Final Thoughts: We Have a Long Way to Go
Source: DOE, GTM Research
Source: EIA, GTM Research
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Thank You!Shayle Kann
Managing Director, Solar
GTM Research
Email: [email protected]
www.gtmresearch.com
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