R E T H I N K T E C H N O L O G Y R E S E A R C H
GLOBAL BATTERY ENERGY STORAGE FORECAST TO 2030
Lead analyst: Peter White
USA flying start triggers rush for Energy Storage leadership
Companies mentioned in this report: Broad Reach Power, Coso Battery Storage, Diablo Energy Storage, Dominion Energy, EDF Renewables, Energy Storage Resources, Engie Development, Hawaiian Electric, Huanghe Hydropower Development, KiWi Power, Longroad Development, LS Power, NEC Energy Solutions, NGK Insulators, NextEra Energy, Pacific Gas and Electric, Pivot Power, RES, Southern California Edison, Southern Power, sPower, State Grid Corp of China, TerraGen, Tesla, TenneT, Tokyo Electric Company and Vistra Energy
“R e t h i n k h a s a c o m mi t m e n t t o f o r e c a s t i n g m a r k e t s t h a t o t h e r s s h y aw a y f r o m – t h o s e o n t h e v e r g e o f r a d i c a l t r a n s f o r m a t i o n ”
https://rethinkresearch.biz
Executive Summary
Copyright © 2020 Rethink Research, All rights reserved.
2
CONTENTS
Page
Table of Contents 2
Table of Figures 3
Introduction 4
Uses of BES 5
So how fast will energy storage happen? 6
The thinking and considerations around BES 8
How we see Battery Electric Storage (BES) working 9
BES growth in the USA 10
China and BES growth 19
European BES growth to 2030 21
Asia Pacific 24
Other Asia Pacific nations 27
Middle East and Africa 28
Latin America 29
Methodology 31
Forecasting investment possibilities across renewables 32
Contacts 33
About Rethink Technology Research 34
Copyright © 2020 Rethink Research, All rights reserved.
3
GRAPHS AND TABLES
Page
Global Battery Energy storage to 2030 6
Capital Cost of BES in $ billions 6
Global BES by 2024 7
Global Battery Energy Storage to 2030 7
Global BES by 2030 8
USA Battery Energy Storage to 2030 11
USA breakdown BES by 2030 by major ISO 12
Chinese BES growth to 2030 in MW 20
European BES growth to 2030 21
European BES by 2030 22
Asia Pacific less China BES to 2030 25
India BES in GW to 2030 26
Middle East Africa BES to 2030 in MW 28
Middle East Africa BES to 2030 in MW 29
Latin America BES by 2030 30
Copyright © 2020 Rethink Research, All rights reserved.
4
The Battery Energy Storage (BES) market, made up almost entirely of
lithium ion based technology, has been completely under-forecast
throughout the run up to the 2020s. Its sudden emergence on the scene,
in substantial installation sizes, has only just begun, mostly triggered
by US utilities acting, perversely (compared to Federal Government),
from climate ambition, led by a number of the larger US States.
Forecasters in the past have been aware of the growing US pipeline,
and as such have under forecast battery energy storage outside the US,
which is running perhaps 12 to 18 months behind the sudden surge in
the US market. This report hopes to correct that, by showing that out-
side the US, in the ten year time frame, momentum will build in four
key markets – China, the US, Europe and the rest of AsiaPac.
China is already acutely aware of the possibilities of lithium ion stor-
age, but the US is definitively about to take an early lead. At Rethink
Energy we are certain that Chinese authorities will close this lead al-
most as fast as it opens up, and that to a certain extent, it is the open-
ness of the US utilities and the public availability of their plans, and the
plans of the State Utilities Commissions, which shows very clearly how
the starting gun has been fired in the US, creating a concrete pipeline
that is easy to dig out.
Europe, especially in the UK and Germany, is equally ready for the on-
set of the BES market, but we expect them to move more slowly due to
cumbersome regulatory environments, which have not moved to stay
ahead of the BES market, and slower investment cycles.
Introduction
Copyright © 2020 Rethink Research, All rights reserved.
5
When you talk to people in this market, it is clear there are multiple us-
es for energy storage, and that there are multiple potential owners
within the energy marketplace – from utilities themselves, to grid oper-
atives, to independent storage owners, to solar or wind farm owners, to
consumer facing energy businesses.
Energy storage has had to emerge from the fairly important, but not
financially significant frequency regulation and black start market, to
energy arbitrage, working in conjunction with intermittent supplies
supplying capacity and wholesale energy.
BES has also been described as offering spinning reserves, which are
both load following and load balancing. The other big usage area is the
deferral of transmission build out and for congestion relief where trans-
mission is inadequate.
As a peaker replacement, BES demonstrates its enormous potential for
profitability and sitting alongside solar, it can shift the responsibility
for balancing intermittent power back to the solar farm by partner solar
with storage.
Of course BES can work both behind the meter and in front of it, and as
such robust and intelligent software can harness much of that distribut-
ed power in many of these functions. BES can also be used to facilitate
a Demand Response shift, supporting utility strategies through the
smart meter. Finally BES can harness the batteries of parked and charg-
ing car batteries, something we have specifically avoided going into de-
tail on, in this report, but which we are fully aware of.
It is because of these multiple functions, that the interest has built and
built and during the past month some 2 GW of BES has been an-
nounced by just a handful of US utilities for implementation over the
coming 2 to 3 years.
Uses for BES
Copyright © 2020 Rethink Research, All rights reserved.
6
This forecast indicates that XXX.X GW of energy storage will be in-
stalled, up from X.X GW of BES today. In terms of GWh of actual
battery cells, the great majority of this will be utility scale 4 hour stor-
age. In some small number of cases it will include some 6 hour configu-
rations. In all residential configurations, the amount installed varies be-
tween 1 and two hours of name-
plate output. For ease of discus-
sion, we will refer to this as all
being four hour, citing X,XXX
GWh for the entire market.
NREL published a paper aggre-
gating price reductions of BES
forecast by various provider, in
2019. It began with a price of
around $XXX per kwh and fell in
the median pricing to around
$XXX per kwh by 2030. Applying that pricing we get a total spend of
some $XXX.X billion in capital costs by the end of 2030, and a spend of
$XX billion a year now, rising to $XX.X billion on global BES.
So how fast will Energy Storage happen?
Copyright © 2020 Rethink Research, All rights reserved.
7
Methodology
In all territories we have adopted a process of establishing the size of
installations by reaching out to industry alliances, and public numbers,
and the size of the immediate pipeline from public auctions, published
RFPs, and announcements of deals.
This gives a 3 to 4 years forecast, and from there we look at policy and
potential policy changes in the region and project from those pipeline
numbers. Throughout this forecast we have referred to our own Global
Solar Forecast, and looked at the critical periods when intermittent re-
newables (solar and wind) make up 25% of more of total electrical gen-
eration, and used that moment to accelerate our forecast formula. It’s
not so much magic, as hard work and a lot of attention to detail.
Copyright © 2020 Rethink Research, All rights reserved.
8
Who should buy this report?
This report is critical to anyone working around grid energy storage. It
shows the dramatic acceleration going through the industry right now,
after years of companies experimenting with lithium ion battery cells,
with the USA at the center of activity.
This includes staff from solar developers, utilities, wind developers,
public utility departments, investors and politicians caught up in the
renewables debate.
“USA flying start triggers rush for Energy Storage leadership,” is a
forecast by region of battery energy storage (BES) their size, rate of in-
stall and their effect on renewables profitability.
The Rethink Energy service at Rethink Technology Research is essential
reading and provides quarterly tracking services for each of Solar,
Wind, Energy Storage and Hydrogen, each of which includes at least
one forecast each year. This report forms part of the Energy Storage
tracking service and subscribers will get 3 more quarterly updates.
If you are at all unsure of whether or not to invest in this report, then
please request FREE entry to our WEBINAR on this report on Tuesday
June 30th at 4pm BST. Email Simon Thompson to request webinar ac-
cess at [email protected]
This report will;
· Give you a key numbers to drop directly into planning spreadsheets
· Give you confidence in your scenarios planning fore BES
A direct eCommerce purchase can be made here on our website or you
can contact Simon Thompson, product manager at email
[email protected] or by phone at +44 1280 820560
Copyright © 2020 Rethink Research, All rights reserved.
9
Rethink Energy is our energy service, made up of our Weekly Analysis and our quarterly
Tracking Services. These both include access to our deals database. We focus on the transition
from fossil fuels, and take in Wind, Solar, Energy Storage, Hydrogen in the tracking services
and our Weekly Analysis takes in more developments in things like the digitalization of the
grid, the rise of EVs and recharging points. Our deals database is freely accessible to any cus-
tomer and has over 2,500 live renewables deals.
This Report can be purchased as part of either our Hydrogen Tracking Service or our Energy
Storage Tracking Service. This is because we see the demise of Gas for Power almost entirely
replaced by either Green Hydrogen for Power or by Lithium Ion batteries.
Our quarterly tracking services show current installation counts and offers at least one forecast
each year. We also provide details of technical advances, and changes to renewables policy by
country, and access to the deals database.
Previous forecasts are available to all news customers of the tracking services :
• Natural gas will strand $1 trillion in power generation by 2050
• Energy Storage attached to 50% of solar installs by 2030
• Offshore Wind forecast; Offshore wind to drive 8m jobs, is key to decarbonization
• Floating Solar goes stratospheric once it partners with hydro
Tracking services are all $2,100 for one person, or $3,200 for a corporate license.
There are volume discounts if you want more than one of the tracking services.
You may also wish to buy our Weekly Analysis, which costs;
Single User license - $595
5 User license - $1,100
Corporate license - $2,200.
Forecasting investment possibilities across renewables
SUBSCRIPTION COSTS
Copyright © 2020 Rethink Research, All rights reserved.
10
RETHINK LEADERSHIP
RETHINK ENERGY’S MAIN CONTRIBUTORS
Peter White - Principal Analyst
+44 (0)7734 037414
Harry Morgan - Analyst
+44 (0)117 925 7019
Peter White - CEO and Co-founder
+44 (0)7734 037414
Caroline Gabriel - Research Director
+44 (0)207 450 1230
www.rethinkresearch.biz
Copyright © 2020 Rethink Research, All rights reserved.
11
Rethink is a thought leader in quadruple play, renewable energy, and 5G
wireless. It offers consulting, advisory services, research papers, webi-
nars, plus three weekly research services; Wireless Watch, a major influ-
ence among wireless operators and equipment makers; Faultline, which
tracks disruption in the video ecosystem, and OTT video, Rethink Ener-
gy, which monitors investment opportunities in the changing energy
landscape.
About Rethink Technology Research
Need more information?
Natalia Szczepanek (Marketing and Client Relations Manager)
+44 (0)117 925 7019
Copyright © 2020 Rethink Research, All rights reserved.
12
Bristol & Exeter House Lower Approach Road
Temple Meads Bristol
BS1 6QS United Kingdom
Tel. +44 (0) 1179 257019
www.rethinkresearch.biz
Published June 2020