FEWS bulletin May 27, 1996 AFR/96-0S

USAID-Financed Famine Early Warning System

East Africa and the Horn

Kenya Rainfall Pattern Causing Concern

Very poor f~inf~1I in Keny~ during April

del<lyfll planting and cau-.ed lirell for emefging crops in maO)' high-potent",1 .reas of central Rift Valley Province (f>gure I), as well as in large areas of Central and Eastern Pfovinces. S<.luered showers fell in a few places from the

end of April through mid·May. Out it is unceft/lin whether t~ 'ains were suffICient 10 revive hopes for the season. The bean crop MS been devaslaled in many p,uts of Eilstem and Central Provinces, although replanting may take place if rains (Onlinl.le. Near-oormal lains (OOlinued in Ny.t~ and We,le," Provinces and in KerkOO

and Nandi Districts of Rift Valley. Two--th irds of the synoptic: f/linfall stations in the W\lntry

reportf'd rainfal l below 75 peKen! of normal for the moolh; hatf of them reported rainfall below 50 percent. The 0Il11ook for the maize crop at tI><! beginning of the 1996!ong-rains season Md /Ilfe~y been ~~mis~ic be<;.;!u\e f~rlYl<m were expected to decrease a ... a ~anted to maize by up ~o 20 percent due to high input (om and low mai~e prices. The poor April raim a ... li kely to fl'dlKe yields and further inc .... se the likelihood of a beIow-aIlef<lge n<ltion;!l ma~ h<lrvet.

Heavy raim in Ma rch brought early Ojltimism abootthe quality of the IeiIwn and led :;orne

farmers in (entral Rift Valley to plant earlier than oormal. In pa rts of Nakun;, Uasin Gishu, Trans Nwi;!, and Nyandan;a, the early ~anted maize be<;.;!me stunted and weak after the proIooged dry spell in April. Most of the early planted maize had oot withefl'd as of early May. so good May rains wuld still :><IVe the crop. allh0u9h yields will likely be fl'd1Ked. Many far~ who did not risk early p/antir>g we ... Un<lble to plant in April and sti ll await Iufficient 10<1 f'I'Io<sture. Farmers in these areas normally (omplete the first weedir>g of their foelds by early May; this year, tho! majority have not yet ~anted.

The dry period in April also mi9ht (Onlrioote to fl'dllCtion in area planted to maize. Farmers who were tonslderir>g whether to plant maize or wheat especially in Nakun; and Trans Nzoia, had thei r decision made for them by the lado; of lains in April. Wheat plantir>g r.an OCCUl as !ate as May

and June in the!oe areas, while late maize plant· ir>g is risky. Becau!oe of the high (01\5 of seed and fertilizers, farmers who have already planted maize will be ... llKtant to replant if the flIs~ (rop

fails. Despite the poor outlook fo< the Iong' raim

season. prices in the high-po~enlial a ... as remain low. Very little maize is beir>g traded, as most

Kenya-Worsening Agrocllmatlc Conditions Composite Rainfall for Central Kenya Meteorological Stations -I. t: I ,. ,

- ,---, - ,-,,_ , ..... ' " ' ''' 19 ..... , . .... . Sou,,,,, ItOAAAISOA JoIn' Ag"" ....... 1 _'hor_,

NOVI Values May 1 1- 20Compared With Average

• --~-. • -~--0 -~ • ---• "'ut~ A __ •

• -

Highlights: Rain situation in K ... ya worrisome ... .. ..... t

S.Jgcrop in Ethiopia in good condition ..• 1

Camel·killing disease reported in Somalia .. .... .•..... .......•.......... .................. 1

(rop prospects good in souIhf m Sudan ... 1

SADC projects 1996 maize prodtKtion 18 percent above S'Yi!a1 aver .. ge. ...... ..... l

Zimbabwe and Z .. mbia expect exportable surpluses 01 maize ................................. )

H ..... ehold a<us. to food improves In Millawl ........... ................... _ ..................... _ .... 4

Transhuman(e disrupted in nortll .... Mali ................................................. .. .. . S

Severe water sllortages hit 8urllina Faso .. S

food security situation In Nlgef \lndea •... 6

households 00id on to last IeiIwn's stocks in ant"ipation of price increases. Natic>nal Cereal and Produce Board depol5 are closed in many 3 .... S. Urban wholesale priu>s ill(reased slightly in April, as is normal for the time of year.

Eastern ProvirKe does not procilKe large quantities of maize du rir>g ~ho! long rains. but bean production is normally very important. The poor April fains severely affected tho! bean crop.

wi~h lar<}l'""sr.ale losses reported throughout the Provirxe. Farmers in Meru and Embu are replant· ir>g beans, hop<r>g for 900d ra inl in May and June. High losses are also ... ported in the south­ern districts of Machakos. Makueni, and Kitui . Thil follows a poor short·ra ins maize harvest in the Iow-lyir>g portions of the southern districts and (ould lead to increased food in!oecu rity.

In the arid dinr"ts, vegetative condilic>ns worser>ed considerably in April, especially in southem Marsabi~ eastern IsioIo. eastern Sa m· oo ru. and southern Wajir. The Orou9ht Prepared · ness Interventic>n and Recovery Project reporl5 dry ronditic>ns In these areas and mixed (Of\""

ditic>ns elsewhe ... in the arid districts, and il expects a very poor Mrvest on Marsabil Moon­tain. Good rains continued in northern Marsabit and Mandera. along the Ethiop<an border. Tur· k<lna Oistrict MS had unUlual1y good rains, and vegetative cond~ions are near normal ar:ro~ much of the district.

Ethiopia Belg (soomd~ry :;eason) rains con! i nued wilh above-average amoonl~ and faVOfa~e distribu­tion during most of April over Ethiopia's (ermal

highlands aOld in the sooth and east. Rainlan has bo!en ~nff""ntly higher than average in man beIg producing zones, but foeld reports from non­

g~meo'al OI'ganizations Indicate thai some areas h;!ve received linle rain Ihis season. In the soothern Iowlaods of Somar. and Afar Regions.

Advance of Gu Rains Across Somalia

C::::J1 No Rainfall ~ Very Low ltain'a" _ tow Rainfall

_ '* Rainfall _ Hei"fy Rainfall _ Very H.i'tY Rainfall

the rains did nol lIar' unlil mid-April, about SOOO"'.: f[W5IW 10day$lat ..... th;!n nor"",!. "',.~-'-" _______________________ ...:'O':~:: ... """m~

At the end of Apri l, crops in rrmt beIg p<oduc-ing areas of the coulllry were reportedly In good

condit>on. Crop< JIIanl<'<! early, during a wet

period In January, weft near flowering.. while crops planted after the return of fains during the second week of March were kllH high. No major pest incidence has be<!n repo<1ed 10 date. In tile

mther producing areas of Orom;ya and the SOulhefn Nations Nationalities and Peoples Regional State (5NNPRS), mail(' c~ at the end <Jf AIXil were ~t emergence aoo third·leaf stages. with 00 significant irregulariTies in rnoi5ture IUpply.

During the 1a5tlew ~ of AIXil. a high· p<ernlre Iystem dominated most of the counuy, resulur>g in a bfeak in rainfall dur ir>g a clitical time w plant deveIoprr1ent BeIg ClOP'! in the Wlnal highlallds are approachlr>g the flo_lng Itage, whefltheil water requirement is at its ~k. A I>reak in lainfall is normal in most of the country between mid·~ and mid·June, when

the beIg system gives way to the kj'fflIl (mon­

won) I~!em. However, the National Meteoro­logical5ervice Agency ooTIook ltates th.Jtthe current suspension of rainfall Is too early to he the e. pe<:ted I>reak between Iystems. and it can· not Wec.5t how long the high prffiUre will per­sist. Givlm the appr~imately 3-weelo; delay in the onset of the beIg rains, and tllus in the start <Jf beIg <>grkulture, rainfa ll must continlle without a significant dry period through the end of May if beIg prodooion is to be good,

Contra.c:tsll.lw! been signed with traders in Oromiya. the SNNPRS, and nglay Region for 51,000 MT of grain, alld they have already deliv­ered a large part of k. The European Union wi ll !-OOr1launch addi~OIliI l te~ to purchase 78,000 MT of grain to be given to nor-.go;wem­mental OIljanit.Jtions for distriootion. These PUl­chases make an additiona l 183,000 MT available w immediate food aid to vulnerabh! popula­tions and ta replenilh the secur~y stock. and they will do mlXh ta meet the Ethiopian Govern­ment's eltimated food aid need of aver 295,OOOM1.

2

Somalia In Somalia. Gu (main season) ra infal l commonly Itartl in the inland Regions. such al Bay and Bakool. and progresses toward the Mit coast. Farmers obsep;ed intense lightning in the dis­tance at the beginning af the season in AIXil, indicating thilt rain had come to Bay and Sakool. However, because of civil insecurity in these two

regions. ~ il difficult to verify how much rain has fallen. Meteo.at data 5I>ow the e.,.;twa,d pm­

gression of rain a.c:ross Somalia In April (fogure 2).

Reports from oonhW6tem Somalia illdkate thill areas bet~n Hargeisa alld Berbefa also received good rains in April. At the end of April, heavy rains fell in the nartheastern Regions <Jf Nug ... 1 and Bari. While ra ins were lighter In early May, the eastward IXogreslion continued alld rains Increased again in mid·May.

Fa.,nefJ; in moSI <>gricullUral areas of Somalia had completed land pr!!j)aration and mainte­nance of lmall irr~tion canals by the end of March, enabl ing many of them to take advan­t<>ge of good April rainfall 10 start sowing their ClopS. A lack of <>g'k~~ural ma.c:h ir>ery issignifi­cantly limiting agrkulture, particularly along the two main rivers. the Juba and the Shabelle. whefe the ..ails are heavier (vertisols). Many f>elds in the J~ba Valley, stretching mainly from 50 km sooth af Bardera to Gobweyn, near Kismayo. were tilled this season with traditional hand tool$ and \OllIe hired Iabor,"Th<! area cult;­vated was not as great as rt would have been if farm machinery had been available.

Rfj)OIts of a camel-kill ing disease have been coming from different parts of Somalia, but the

ellent is not yet known. cases mthe disease, which reportedly NS spread from Ethiopia, have been observed in Hir ... n, Bakool, Middle and Lower Shabelle, Northwest and Northeast Regions. It appears to be a vi",1 infection that is passed from goats to camels. Ca~ ~ report that \OllIe an imals seem 10 die withoot any specifIC symptoms. However, o\hefs develop respiratOl)' distress, nasa l diKha rge, alld cough. Camels with the disease respond well to axy-

tetra.c:ycline or sulfa drugs. "Th<! BOC Somali Seri­ke, in collaboration wilh the nongovernmental organization Terra Nuova, has broadcast mes­sages to local herders alxAA the disease and how to treat It.

In Kismayo. the food supply is Iti ll erratic. with transportation af goods often interr~pted by civil insecurity In Mogad ilhu, although there is plenty ofiood available for sale, there are grouP'! of people who hilve little money and who are the.-efore vulnerable alld malnoorished. Because of the renewed fight ing In the south of the city alld the consequent withdrawal of many expatri­ate staff who had been invotveo:t in the Un ited Nations' .00 nor-.go;wernmental organizations" relief aperations. the number <Jf den~ute fami­lies probilbly will ,ise in lhe coming months. The dosure of EJ-Ma'aan port (north Mogadishul for the Apri l-June high seas and the recurrent flare­UP'! of f'9hting in the port of Maflla (which is also subject to high seas] cou ld al50 contribute to an increase in tood prices.

Sudan Satei lite imagery suggests that the amount 300 distribution of ra infall continlle to be good a.c:ross II105t of southern Sudan, improving prospects for good yields where ClOP'! hilve been planted. Ground reports confirm that conditioos W clOfl and palture development are el«ellent especially in Bah r el Gllazal and Weste.-n Equato­r .. , where vegetat;"e conditions have been above average lince January. In Topasa land, EaStern Equatoria, and along the Nile corridor in Jonglei and Upper Nile, however, rainfall ha5 been poorly distributed alld vegel3live condi­tions ale belaw average.

Nongovernmental organizations report that nea rly 18,000 displa.c:ed persons from Marid i alld MUndrl Counties in Western Equatoria are extremely vulnerable to hUIlgel. CrYil insecurity and milit;a attacks have driven these people

from their home areas ta camps near the town of Mund'i. Household food stocks are reported to be insuffICient to m~t food needl until the next

fOO bulletin Af///96-05, May 27. 1996

twvet. iIIOd the tIveill d conlinued mllilia ~It«b 1mi!s;tgriaA1nI~, Food Ilftd ~wiI'-IO!lf~inlhe\.e

ill'NS beIoR reliefinteNenllom can !If impie­~ ..

In Alar and M.19O/o;. 'IOUth 01 M.1il1kal in Upper ~;Ie. approximalely 5O.<XXl perIOOsladi. adequate ilC(ess to food. Redoced (JtIJI ~ resulling from lisl ~ flooding. iIIOd ..... ~td I(au 10) rnatIr&

due 10} eM insecuriIy are lhe principal ause.. In a r_~ruritionaI~,MtdQI~

Zimbabwe Rainfall was light and scattered in Zimbabwe duro

Ing Apr(. consislenl with a I'IOfmal winding down 0I1Ile rainy!'Yoo. Although _ ilrea$ in the

rNlr.oety arid souchem ~d IIlecoootry m;gtoI '- bMefrted from ~ .. <til to IT\ilII;e lIP for the I.lcf 5tilIt oIlhe SHIOOl il'ItI'e. most 0I11le (fit oIthe (OOrl!ry""""" 110( benefil from further rains. Mosl crop! are now matml!. and dry weillhi'< is imporloJOi;n reducing lhe fI'IOOIlIIE content oilhi' grainslO IevtIs that are less ~ to INd to n:>I Of inwa IrIestation.

The f.Mlrabiegro .. 'i1g{(lO'iditions Ih;lt ~

YiJiIed In most 0I\he wootry..-e rellKttd in the InitWI ~ r<Wi,ca;! issued I:rt lhe N.l\ionilI Early

WMning Unit.....t.kh estimates lOla! CtI"NI pr0-

duction at 3.197 million MT. ~ production is j)I'O;ected at 2.654 MT, substantially a~ thl' earlier Informal forecasts 012., 102.4 million MY. While this f;>ls ~ at the I\illoNoI rtwtd 01 ~ 2.8 milNon Mr. it is among the two

£lto¥tllpl1 ... rl w.th Air{MEDAlR) bm!hat nNIty

26 per«nI of chiIdr .. 1 oodef 5ycars of age Of

, , S on in he igI ~ ~ suffeo ir '9 from 1NInu1r" tIon.lnltIrIolIionai (ommiIIeeof\he Red Cross sUff II1efI'1bm '-also witnessed a ike in IhI' r.umbe< 01 seve<eIy """nourished p.1licnl~Jllhcir f~ hospital In Alar. Other 1tJXlrI! ~Ie thaI lhe protl E1i1 is Ii'IIn wide!p"ud In IIleviiage 01

~ Tuie. iIIOd ~ The 'M:wId Food PI""",_l1 Is planning .. relief ~ inil " 'i ~ 12.000 peowns for .... togerq Ietding programs.

Southern Africa

Of Ihree highest lewis of prodiIClion since 1980. Production of Olhti' gr.>ins is forffilst al 543.oooMT. dwhich..t.eat accounts lor )2S.oooMT.

With ItspK\ to mailP, this IIar.otst <ou6d fl!SU1t in an opoo-liIII* ~ of bet .. cc" 2,0.000 iIIOd 360.000 MT. Thel!lQCt ~ would depend largely

on the "'ffiI to which ~ conlrilClslor main' Imports ~rE~ted, on the eventual sino and limlrog of P'Jfchases 10 repjenlsh lile Stralegic Gra.in Reservt. and on the Jew.I5 of nonlood _

and poslhaNtst loss. As of the tIld 01 Mird!, only 12S,968 of the 29S.OOO MT of contlilCled maizIe imports had iIO.l.ed inrountry. The National Early WiHning Unit reports lhal the Grilin Marketing Board may~ (all((Iing SOITle outstanding {onUI(IS. The National Early Warning Unit has based ~s proj«tion~ on Stfategic Grain ReseM stocks of 6OO.<XXl MT of maize. bot thl' Govem· men! of Zirrob.Jbo,w has smed lholt mi!oIze held in

\he Strategic Gr"'l\eserWcouId V¥y between

Southern Africa Maize Production Estimates ~ ... + rlE-,.WiriiiiigiJNof!heSMhnn I o\Iriu llI:.tI""'k'(~(SAOQf1iOdSeol­

rill' leCw'U ¥id Adii •• ,D. Unit k ~i!>g SAO(

.... prtOdu(OOn~AsoirrOd""'t~ on ~ ~ 1'1' IIOIicon.II ~ ... I. 'lI triIs iOIId on other 0\lJI Ml WI",,_ iiisW .. !he III;giorwtI e.ty

WIio •• ."iJN .......... 1IiUI~ (MM. "'-"'101· ~ "*tiOlld.u) jDIucIionb!he 199Ci"-st ..., _","",;IIlS1"""""'~ of~'" l1prrCffll~"""'.

~ ~ JIIOMtiOnof.wr .... "Meir 19.4 mikI IoIr ~ libout 71 pI.CMI ~ IIo.ln IW yNr'! '/Cf)' poor productionolll.1 mi1Iio:on Mllnd 38Pf1Cf11\ ibo\oe!he 1fgiooiI1991-9S -.of 14.1 miIion loll ~ in thcst 1Io)Ircs".",. >II tit li\IioipIced ill b!hcr iIU'Id5 01 ~«II. CllM(IIeIfd.

figorf ) pR5Im Ihi>,.m rU!r prorMtiDn lift. c.!I ... SAO( .ifrltb!r aurIrIc!. ill" ill rIIIilI' production ............ 19911hau;1'99I .. ~ lOlL lht"'inoe~inrl!inlMed rU!r~ in Ano)oIIiOIId~l1iOIIdout. Mdf\piIt!he'" ~piIiiJtI5thMbodt ~lIl<Cnwdt!hey

SAOC Maize Production EstImates Production estimate

(OOO's Ml)

'''' '''' '''' , ... '''' , ... - '" '" '" ,. n> '" ." ., B , , B , B 1= I. n • " on n '" - "" '" "'" "" '''' , ... .. , II I I "' m '" .. ,. m N.n It II • B II " B " .... - "'" "" .... ''''' WI "" ...... . ~ '" • " .. "

,. "'I.!' lJll "" "" ". W lJ" , 11, ,,.. .. " . "" I. ". T , t , "" '" 1.112 !JOO .. "'" SAOC:J.UllS,4n 6,180 17~1 lO,o71 11 ,otS 19,442

..... ' 10" a._oat ... £ootjWOO ..... """'., .... SA!){f .... -,._1.1 .. ..." .. ' !~'b_""'"

flws,r.u, ' _

In an ~ to boIsterloc;ll production 0I~

aIs and grooodnuIs, don(.s~aWsring flumanI.

IMian Of9i"WIions in buyingand bartering seed Nearly 1.000 MT of~, sorghum. MId gromd:

nul seoeds '-~ distributed for planting to fJrrN.'r! who have lost Of o:onwmed seed stock.

This initiat~ <ovid Ioc~Me proolluion In p;lns 01 Western Equatoria by maintaining local crop vir\. eties, whidl..-egtlltlalfy btmf su~ed to IouI ronditionslNti ~ seed! irropJll~ from KtnyiI ..........

500.000 and 934.000 MT. do!pending on grain pric:es. thl' (OSI of sloroltgl'. and IhI' ewli.rlion 01 \he ,996/97 growing ~o»<.n

~stipj:'ies in Grain Matteting Board \loeb ,'''' . I tight due to tht slow arrMI 01 (orobM;led

imports. 0l.wIng ApIi, rmiI maizIe price. which ~ *-Iy very high. 00If ,0 po;r<ent AI the wile Im~ IeYeI, on I~ other IIand, the price 01 1 MT of wh~e ~fell between 35 and 42 per. cent 0YtI' Ille {oorse of thl' monlh, d..e 10 tile arrival on the m,IIkei oIlllolize from IhI' new I\;)f. .est. The C\On'tIl\ producer pric:e 100 maize 01 between Z$ 1.200 iIOId Z$ 1.500 pti' metric ton is ~ briow \he wm:rot pri<f on SOuth Africa's COOM"oOdiIy ~ The Grain Marb!:.

ing 8o;ord, wNcIo e ~ed I:rtllle Govemmtilt to buy all main' piCSC.11ed 10 it, olr\rlOIOr'lUd a pu-. {ha~ price 01 ZS 1 .200 per melric. Ion. essenllally setting a floor 10 tile poodiICer pric:e.

The Depa.tmefll of CIvil Protection oIlhe Min­isuy of Loc.1I ~ Uoban iIIOd ~ £lto¥d-

nYI >II ~".. .. oo diklqa..,bod iIii......"

!he«mirlg)Nl Scuh~"...woron. .... '" soD­>IMI1iII!' Mom IW )ONr'I poor ~ I> >til t.ql«~ ~ .. , • milton IoIr bfIow 1990\ proiloction. ~ 11M.

~edI01lt1ls1Mgclt_ ,981. ~. .. , E.ry iftdbdons ilrlhllt!he Ifgion ill i whcoIr mil' ~ !MhaIl (ohildsi." erpoots n . , .... tI)

j liMtl, ~QI)JmMf iIf 0NiI0!.,..., a.­ipIiOOl" ~fl!WMl'C I • MIdOtI.Mostoflhi>

01..." . ,un - WIIIM lit .. SoIiIi Afu !2.9SO.lIOO MTl,lMrobi.t

.oo:t III n ¥id Zlrn'l+trf (210,00;1 101 I~ 1M R .. '" SAO( CIIO.IIVieWIIIM ,-Import~ I < .. ltfiCS

Mom 2,,00)1011 in Sw..;lnlIflW,OCI:IMI in .,.j161,(nIMIIo:o~ .

n-hMYCItl1litws .tpes.. ... ilNjorPi'l oIdw

1101 .. ,-.... idomwr:iI;on ~ 10 t\riffood iIii I'ftI'; . $''''i6.

otW Import" rlIPOII ,"" .. it>. iOIId other

.

... '01_ - iIf thr,.... fI food IltIft7 in Ndi au*):

*-J.!helkj wlE-,.Wir:iL.",..., 1IMionIIN!,,,,, • .,,. illI .... :O' i'll!hc!oi:

oms "'" iltf ill "·,,,Ii 'lI bod wan,. "'" -'"

,

Locusts in Southern Africa Could Pose. Th .... t in 1997 A ~LII"9tLO(,taoostond~Al!isI· "-:1 (AllGAlltjiOOl$lIIiIltmtI ~ jIII5t as iIauMd 1IvM 10 tJIIfI\illOUIhfno AIrici nI tInunII .1997. Sw¥llllollomn ~ IjIOClfll in smrill (0lIl.

ults in 1M lIN iI MWI MIl April of this )'NI'. Swwy .nil (O(1uol OprlltioOllook l'iicr In infffifd iI!NI dw­in9 April iOd NIly ~ .. 1~ WUIW oI...ticII hundffds 01 hKldffl wm sprlj'!'d ";th inSKliddt In 8ouw~ IIWIIwl Moumblq~. twmibil. 1M ZambLI. ConlnM oprfitOJm IPPtIl\O be 1iokr"'9liKust .1Id 1)I'i\1hopptf

~ uplUrge'lr. th«k.ond rtlitMly JttIr dMJI. "It "" ~ ~ 10 dollr. 110; ... e If!~ 111M is, sIIItpIy iou9!td rhot. of <I .. " cd 0II/IlImb 11M ,.e~ ~ ....-t jIII5t • wrioooI 11m! to UIIPI ond INd 10 ~ Wr(OfllJll."l' 4~

(lpiioe.'ll ~(Oj,if)Ie • .ed' WM!Yof di!.tricHevtl offldan, ~11ng lnIonnation on ~ numbercl

PfOPIt In tach dislria who are ~t riskof ~ endng food shortages. Resporues received to dale SlIg!/eSllh;!\ 1,Q34,000 per$Ofll are peI"

~ as being at risk 0( lMrtages. This es~m.1le will ~kely jnc'eMe by ~ huodred thousand when the ftw/ts from Matabeleland Sou1Il ProYira-whkh his no! ret reporttd- iIf1! IndlIded. The IN! ~ !oJ IikelyIQ bequj{e_ Zimbabwe's)'Nlly _. oI1,504,0t95 dro!qIt

~ltd"'!iIIlsiru 1984.GWen ti>egenel'iJII)/ good agricuIt .. iII conditions in ~ m.:ony pam 01 the coootry. \he number .. ""ilSdose' ~'" as iJ(Icjjfioo ~ ;nlotflllItion--partirulM1y. ~

gmd production t'illma1es-becomes <lYailMR.

am .... FiIVOfabie r~lnf~ 1I during the 1995l96uoppiog ~. (O)ITIb;ned with improved acCt'lllO ~t

and inpo.m, is expected 10 result in the first abc .'e

,1\(1. ~ (rop since the h;l~tion 01 the mille INIIIeI. The bmtUn ~ prdm· ""-Y oopfortasl too 1995196~ fl!lcilltd in Aprl predic.ts maize and loul areal outputs

ilight/yabc <¢Ihe 1981 91 ~M.Ji« prodIIctIon k f!nasl at 1.48S million MT, wtliIt toY! (tf61I OUtput i5l!Xp«led 10 be;>boot 1536 million MT- figurescomparaOle 10 tho!_age production from 1986l1vough 199t of 1.476 mil·

lion MT of maize and 1.528 million MT of c~ f'foduo:tlon i5 e. pected to be adeqwte 10

meet coowmplioo neKis and ajlow /Of a-n l'lCportabif Wfpius of about 300.000 MT of maize. The biIn on tho! l')(porI of maize ard __ ~~

which had been Imposed in lilt laceoftho! pro­duc.tion ~n. in lilt 199'195 seilSO'l, WM Iitlfd oJIlIltend 01 ApI, and U- are indiwions tt.­lift IfIiY Impon up to 2OO.(O)MT of Zambian ..... •

~ pricPS are WJwIy tornD.I o;kMon M a rflUIt of the good ~ Mn"! meal prices in major I.riI.Jn _ dediiotd by abouI5 pMMI

during April. The price of maize !Pin iko Id •• poow;,~ marktI (MIO!r.i. In Southern PI o.i «. a 9O-kg bag of maize rraoN sets lor lJ( 8,700 in

Choma and lJ( 17.(0) in l.iYinguone wtltllM 6 hFcis earlier ~ sold for lJ( 3S.(O) and ZK 42,000. respectM>ly. In Kasama, Olipala,.1<ld NdoIa, lhe capitals of NOl1hem. Easleln. and Cop­perbo!ll Provinc~ ~iveIy, ptkes II.lve remained relatively high. becaose tho! late Sli11110 lilt riWl)r season in those ",tM reduced .........

Prices tIwoughout lilt country are likely to coo< Iinue 10 faoll M maize from the ~ llirwst COITIPS

onllltnwket. ThebmbiiNiotioNlFMrTltis Union llasaoM-...ed farrnes nat to.eil me. maize below ZK 1 5.(0) per!lG-lo:l;l bag. wtlith ~ COIlIoIdm

the minirrun pricethat """"'" enabIoe f;vmers 10 repq Ioansaod realize an aru-pta.bIe profrt.

The CioYe<nmenl of Zambia ""I established a Food Reserw f.qeocy 10 oper~te and manage a National Food Sl!rurity Reserw. The f.qeocy wi. buy, store, and sell reserw stock!, carl")ing out

m;vI<tt Operalion! through an open teoderiog process. Details on tho! Agency"s p«lC\IrffI"It\ and stor.>ge~ should be..-.nourud in the _future. The SIr3Iegy lor ~ lilt NitioNl Food 5«urity fIe5erw probabIyw\l Itr./oh<t ITIiIfttt ~ in _ where lilt maize ~ Is depm.sed and ~ pno.ate tlitderi are unlikely 10 oper.t(e. .. ...., Rains 0Wf $OUthem Malawi ha.... Started to wI>­lkie, signa ling the end of the 1996 agrkultural season in thaI area. Rains have continued inlo

~ in lilt north. Crops fIiItiorlwide hive reKhed malldy, and 30 po!I<elll oflUill ~d)pllltllt

PlujEctsbpKl abrJ'" _.)it'" NMvesling d maW.. 9fOl.Wldnuts,. bNm, and COlton Is oodff

W*f ~ most oflllt country. so houset.okl( I«eSS to food is ~ Swarms of red IoMts have been reported in Nsanjto, Salina, MangochI. M<othingII, a-nd ChlkwiIW3 IIur.oI O!'O d IIp\"11e<lt

Pro;ecli, bulll\ey pose 00 rei\llhreat to thi5 ye.w'J

harYeSt because the swarms are Isolated and ~ •.

WI1ile commef~ maize ptkes in De<U.a a-nd ~ (Centfill REgion) remained high ill the end 01 Ajri, tho! nation.lI.-kly -. maize price kilOMK 2.41 per kiIogram.itpumtlnga

U IXLCeill dropbeth(EL1 MardI MId ApR. The high prices in ()edu a-nd Mchinji .tllKl shottages of «)I1.I'leldIiI maize at priv;ltt m;orkets. MIiloe i5 plentiful •• AgricuItIOl O!'O (I opol1till MId MM·

~(oqxJration (ADMARQ~and~

iIIe 00 Iongtr being restricted. Maize pur<h;!:;es 10 ~ the Str~tegic

Grain Reserw will oot !>@gin until the Govem· menl of M.:olawi ~nd donors reach an agreement 00 the mechanism /Of using 1he5e purdlao;es 10 defend lilt producer rn<>Ize floor price. The multI< donorbod security miWoo char9ld with prtp,Y­

Ing a NtioNl food security SIi~ poc,x <.JI has -'SO btHI giwn lilt' onaro<We 01 ...... 1 WXi.,. cor>­sensus on the St.ategic Grain Reserw Mutt..

The 1995196 relief ... ogoilm i5 doioJJi;lg 10. dose.. ,. total of 39.0 18 MT of maizoe has beM dis· tributed thtoo!It sdlOOIs (18,298 tom. twill! unill (17,896 Mn, and food·/Of·W(lIt pooj!(lS 12.824 MTJ. 0Yet 972.710 r.ealth UM reci!*ll1s and 1.07 minion schookhikJren '-benefited from reHef this year.

Sahel

.. " ~Ii\ food securiIy temOIins s;llhf«toty, m:tpI

In some anoodissemenu in Mopti. Tombouclou. G.o. and Kld.1I Rt9ions. where apprOlti ..... t~ )18,000 highly ...... inefible PfflOO5 in 25 arrondissements are receiving free food dis< trlbYtions of 8,600 MT to cover th(;r rl@Eodsdur­Ing the hungry period. food aid deliveries recommended by the NatioNl f;!rly Warning System (~P) (see February FOO bulletin) /Of 64.soo persons in IIourem CmIe (ootlnue.

Off·seil5OO cropping of receWonaI and low­I¥>d rice. sorghum. and maize continues around latts.rr..ers. and season.! pono.h Ihroughoul tht counuy. The ~ of Mall and donors ~ powided seeds and aedit to poooTlOle

Inae.lsed off·5U500 aapping In MoptI,

Tombouclou. a-nd Wo REgioos. ric.l!-9fOWing artas of lilt' OfficE du Nigtf, and tht arN near the SeIi~ Oiim. By f~' lilt most t~tensiYl! off· season agricukure takes placE In Tombouctou Region, where 2.300 ha has already been planted. Afi('f ne<lrIy 5 )'('afl of decrEased aon­cu lculill activity due 10 civil unrest In the region, off~son prodUO:lion thil yt;Ir is expecled 10 approach long-term _age lewis.

DryIandp;lSturecond~ioo! In Mopt~ Tom­

bouclou. Gao, and KidalIIo!}ions (set box on ne:ott ~) are pool" Of lIMXpIoiYbIe because of ~e .... inlall. Nigel" Ri¥erv,,1Iey I»Slur~ composed essentialy ofbourgou (fd!InochIoa

Sl~ grals found lNin/)' 1n drtt •• reas.

FEWS blJlktin ItfRl'J6'OS, Moy ]7, IS'IlII

Poor Pasture Conditions Disrupt Transhumance in Kidal Region of Mali

lCidil Rtgion. with ill ~ONtrd popuIMiorI of 4O,OOl, . ooltdillltlt S¥oon lOOtofMali.1Iarfty ltall'ing

olOOWI ralnf.JII gulf! thMIlOO mm, k II aImoIt ~ pa!IO!at hlun proOOction lluctuM btI_ 400 and

1~ kgofbionl&peI ~ pelyNr.lht~oftllt !Itgion cuntfItIy mainI.lin a rornbine!I held of about 11O,OOlllwpand{/Ntl, 7O,00I1Mllf1!, lS,OOldooki!yl, MId l,OOlattlf, lht mualtr~<On!;mof!lJ!tt main ptriodI, Yot!idJ!IOITII.Ily oenll aI ~

• July-~ttmbor. R.JiIlI.lIbe!.Jlnl in kiy.wl nwy 0Ir\"

tinuf i'Ko~. ~ ~tf19fW11d<<IWI; inWdInoj 'Ta\ltS and smaIIlhrubI, e!IabIing ri>naIs 10 gr~ wid!!)< This ptriod II dIooomz.d by ompIP pal­

tim and Wolle! and pItn!iflA mit.

Octabor- MMdl: In ll<tobPr MWnaI< be!.Jin to ~ SIO 10 km from pt!!l\MIe!lIWilterpoinB, wIle!l' ~iI gtne!aiIy 9lJOd pastLn II!rou!t M.l!th. Mil pn>du<tion dlot.lstsblaultoftlltdt!e!i<w.!lin9pastllltrond;· lions and dtawt.j /II"i" U'y 01 w.IIt!. lht hurqy StalOO btgInI aI this ptriod Is <omir.g to .. tOO.

wh;ch provides the po-indple source of fodder during the dr~ !.eiIson-ilre ~t;sf"'tory , Unusu­ally large numbers of cattle have c(>ngregatoo across the Mopt; inland de~a, resulting in over­grazing and rapid degradation of ava ilable bOIlr­gou pastures. In addition, the Influx of animals from Niger, many of whkh have 'lOt been vacd· nated against {Ommon diseases, has rai\.O!d fears of disease outbreaks among Malian callII'.

Burkina Faso Water short"9'!l persist in man~ pam of Burkina Faro. In Ouagadougou wate< use has been rewkted!O the hourso/6p.m. to 7 a,m, AGov­ernmomt representative has stated on television that if ra ins did not l>egin by mid ·June, a portion of Ouagadougou~ pop<Jlalion might have to be evacuated.

April-June: 11i100g In ~ pa!IO!alim at! forrtd 10 driw !tft htnIs IOw.Ird pastLm fMthtr ~ from pel' I1\MIfn! WI!~ poi'lts 10 ftld foo:agf. In radii of 1 S tQ

20 Un.woood partoral WfIs. Um!!\ <MI .,m SO km or ~ hum w.!lH points. ThIs pt!iod ~ tilt 100II <ifIWI for ~araisIs.wl aninl.JIs: lht Iioj'I tJ;i I lp!1allm MId tilt Ild; of pastlm and _ jlJt<t till' OjDoIl'I .wi

sIft$\ Yot!idJ at! nD\ ;lbIe to ~~ e!1OUiJh rnA eilIlI'r Ie. thtir)'llllng or lor hOlM'! consumption; pil!ror.ish aI!o ~ riNk in 1liiie! 10 pu~ food.

For many btrdtos iI ftMo Rt.jar>. till' 1Iurqy_1hiI ~btgan tiIIy,ln FftwuiIy. Ralnfal N'inoj 1m WalwtI

btb. Mfi9f and poorly cil!rbrtHl; lor t.ampIP. In AM!f'rI, ~ raloe!! onIy!wi« !ht whoI!! wson, lor atotal 01 14 m'Il. ~ ~wr lOOtS oid nD\ rmM aO'i)' r.lin it ... ~, Pi\IUIt <Ondirions .llt fIIrdi«rr it btIt In <mtril w.I iIId very bad rIIE,,~ ill !ht !Itgion. Sin« ~riTIIfI ~M wolImoJ~.n palloril ~ or from ~~ truW. /oIiIIy rinIIs hR lost wt91! and~~to~.

Nationa l cereal 5e(urity stod, stand at

35,000 MT. Some nongovernmental organiza· tions have po-ovided \mall amounts of food \0 vulnerable peop~ in Scum. Yatenga, Dudalan, and Nahouri Pr""inces. and the Govemment NlS sent 500 MT of ce<eals to them. This year a tot~1 of , ,418 MT offood aid has been made ava ilable to 176,000 persons in the north Ihr0U9h wbsi­dized grain sales.

(had The warm off-season in the ~ders of Lake (had is off to a good Ilart. Polder cereal po-oduc!k>n plays an important rofe in the food security equation in the Lake (had a re~. The warm-off­season crop is Nlrvested at the height of the hungry season, when rain·fed cereal 'tocks have been depieted.

Chad-Ar.as of Earller-Than-Normal

(had-1996 Food Aid Distribution .... " """"" - AInt;io,w(MTJ .,~ ." Billine WI O\ari·Bag.rinni '" 0- 4,014 .. ~, ..... , "' tmiOlliI lot1ll JJl.808 1.1!1O

§o<.oru: fEW5K .....

FI' .... ~ fEWS,Moy'_

Weather station data, satellite images. and feek! reports indicate tNlt the 1 m r~iny season may be startill9 early in Chad (figure 4). Thi~ early onset is important 10 pas!OraliSl~ who can move tTom OYergrilled areas around w~ter points (s""h as Assidaand Am Douma in Sala· mat Prefecture) as water becomes available in other locations. Early raim also cause merchant, and other individuals in areas not ea,ily accessi· bIe during the rai ny season to !\lsh to re<onsti­Me their stock, while they can. Th is flurry of buying can cause <erea l prices !O rise, as they haw In some market~ such as Am Timan and Aboudei,;!.

Farmer stocks from the 1994/95 bumper crop are be<ng drawn down durill9 the current hun· gry period. In addition, planned food aid <>oivi­t>5 wi ll virtually deplete nationa l food security stocks. Consequently, if the upcoming crop sea­son is poor, serious food supply problems will develop in (had In 1996.

The FEWS field represent~tive recenlly visited canton, ta rgeted for food aid by (had~ Early Warning System (SAP) and observed s~ns of food insf'Curity, s",h as unusual ~Ies of animals and gathering of wild food to meet consump­tion needs. Some targeted areas are more vul­nerable than others. for example. people in Gouroof and Douro:ne in Bil!ine Prefecture are more \'Ulnerab~ because water is in short sup­ply and they have limited livestock. As reported in the April fEw.> bulletin, Kanem Pre/e<:tu re has already rf'Ceived food aid from the Natk>nal Food Security Stocks. Planned aid is shown in figu re 5.

Mauritania Prkes of local cereals are rising in mo,t of Mauri­tania's interior market~ includ ing toose in the main po-oduction areas. Imports of wheat flour and rke iooeased sharply durir>g March and Apri l. Reports Indicate tNltln GhoudOya Depa rt­metlI in Tagant Region, there is 00 imported rice available and other cereals are allO scarce, Even

In man~ !\lrallo<;.;!tion~ water rese"'t!1 especially, sYrfa« water and sha llow wells-are very low, Among lhe areas M hardesl are Dori, Dedougou, Boromo. Kamb04nse, Tansila, and Solenu. The Government NlS stiffened ratk>ning mea,ure, by soortening the hours of wate< availabil ity in towns in the IlO(th (Dj ioo. Dori, Ouahigouya). In the country5ide,1ong lines of people waiting to u,e deep wells have become a more common sig ht, and in Nouna, Kossi Provinc~, peop~ are 'lOw uSill9 wells fo<merly reserved for w~tering anima ls. The Department of Agropastoral Stati)!i<;s (DSAP) reports Ihat watl'r levels at a number of important dams­Bagr~, Bam. Kompienga.loubi la, and Nakembe- are wel l t>elow their average levels for this time of ~ar.

"""".:HWIIW in the regiona l capital, Tldjikja, which is the main

C',-"'". ________ :"e"'''''~='_' :,-::J provisioning cenler for Ghoudiya. local 5OI'9hum

FEWS bIJ/lerin AFRJ96-(}S, May 17, 1996 s

is selling at the unusua l!y high p<ice of UM 80 pet kilogram,

Reports from IlOI'them Guidimakh~ Region dewibe ~ (ereal defoOt in Quid Yenge and in the IlOI'thwellern part of Selibaby. Flooding destroyed mudl of the 1994195 (l~ in these_ area~ forting many fam il ies TO consume wr­

ghum and millet from the recffit c~ng sea­son. whkh they would 1lOI'm.Jl ly hold in re5efVe (the Sooink~, the dominam ethnk group in the Region. rare!y consume cereals from the present year~ harves\; normal!y, they eat only cereals from the previous )'Nr's harvest). Should the upo::omirtg harvest (Cktober-November 1996) be 5lKCe5sful. there should be no seriOU5 impa<t. but a poor harvest this year could threaten the food 5eCmity of the population in thiHrea.

The Food Sec:u r~y Commission ((SA) reports very low food Stocto.s in areas of Amourj. Bassi· kounou, and AdeI·Bag rou in HQdh el Chargui Region. The main factors contnbuting to this !.it­uation are redoced crop prodOCTion in The rain­fed area5 d..e to the early rain stoppage. increased pri<:es of imported foodstuffs, and the departure of refu~ who harntually resold some of their food aid,

Niger Niger's Minislry of Aural ~nl Hydrol­ogy and Environment ha5 finallzed cerea l pr0-

duction figures fonhe 1995/96 agrlcullural season, which indicate a 12·pe«ffit de<;rease r\a~onwide from the Ministry'S provisional fig· ures of 1it5t NCJVember. This year's prodllClion is likely 10 m€e185 pertffit of 1995/96 co05ump-

Food Security Situation in Niger Is Unclear

M O\t donorl h.Jve I9'tN sinI:! ).)nowy 199fi lhil 30.000 M T of food will be ~~IMY to mffl the .-1\ of the "';~ablo group$1n Niger this rt .... AppIIIIi",",* 16,000 MT 1m already bPm diltrihut'll. _ mrough lood·

for·work ~15 arid 1M ttlllhlOUCJh h~ diltrlb<Jlioo.iht Gowrnrntnt of I/igfl Mod donorl haw not Ol9rHd 00 a IIr at· eg'\'for pIOIIkIi"91he r~ 14.(10(1 M T horn . .lJnthrough AlJ9!.11l.lht ""tiOO"JiI \IlUtgit It(l,f~y.stoW QIIIUln abo\Jt27.ooo MT 01 rniIItt. but (,I11I1C! be~a~ without _gua,.~ of rtpItnilh~t~ mkllt be rt.ldIf(j \OOrt on 6tI/'Iff'/ 1d'ifd"1ts. bKaL/St lilt upcOO'lhllj rains wi~ mab dtlrwr; of food wmmodilits to IOr11I' M­Wte<j dledS of tM ((M,JOlf)' W"l' dfflkull,

tion requ irements (figure 6). All Departments except Maradi and Tahoua rl!9iStered per capil<! p<odlKtion f.gu res below their S·year (1989- 93) averages. The greatesl per capil~ prodwion decreases occurred in the Departments of Diffa, lilla~, and Zinder,

Data from the Mar1<et lnformation S)'St~m (SIM) Ihrough mOd·Apri l show Ihat «real prices have continued 10 increase 15to 20 percent since mid·March and were ml.lf:h higher than dllIinglhoe same period la51 year. A<:r;ording to SIM. prkes should continue to rise. pan!y d..e the prod "'lion deficit in Niger and in ",,"hem Nigeria.

U.estOC~ pike dala for Mardi from Ihe Min­istry of Agriculture and Livestock for the Depart­menu ofTahoua and Zinder showed an increase over the previous month, d..e to the Moslem holiday ofTabaskl. It is like!y that tile trend toward de<;reasirtg livestock prkes Ihat had been evidenl before Tabaski wi ll return.

Niger's areas of vu lnerable popoJ lations rernain almost the Silm<.' as feponed in the April FEW> bulletin, but levels of vulnerabi lity have increased. Based on field reports. the arron­di5sements of Ouallam, Tchintabaraden, Tanou~

Goure. Maim! Soroa, o;ffa. N'Gu igmi. and Tchi­rozerine, whkh were moderate!y vulnerable, are now h~h!y vul nera~e.ln addition, the ~ rroodi5semeolS ofTillab<!ry ancl Tera are now

moderately vulneraDle, fEWS estimates thaI apprO.ltimale!y 30,000 MT oflood will be needed 10 sustain hlgh!y 10 moderately vulnerable pap­ulations from Jur.e through Augusl (see box above).

Nlge r- 1995196 Productio n and Needs Met

PI I'm ... """"" W Dilft' .... , ..... ~ .. - -~.

"" (tllfi.'l) , ..... .rw.r~ /!II ....-tIon .,.... , , ." , Diffa '" " ... " ... '" ,. ., • Matadl '" '" .. '" Tillabtry 1TI ,. ." " rahoua '" '" " • '"'" '" '" ·u • Aft!!!! 192 '"

., " Sou«e: FlWS/N9of ...... FEWS. foIoy ,_

CorrtclkMo:In"'" "II. 1996, 1lWl-. ... 1. "'" ~oI'Io<," ,~~ ......... -..m-

The fEWS bulletin I. published for lhoe Un iled Slates Agef0<y /0, Inlernational Development (USAIDr. AIrlca Bureau. A"i.tantlldmlnimatOl. Disaster Respon>e CoordinaTion (AFRlAAlDRC).by: The FEWS Project No.698-0491< (Contracl No, AOT -0491-C·OO·S02H10). (OOl1/ICIOI: Aswciales in RUfal Developmen~ Ioc. 8url ir>gtOll. V(',rnont.

E iKlronlc hypeneXl venlon. a", .Vii il.ble .1 htlp:lIwww.lnfo,usa;d.gov/feW>llews.~tml,

This documenlshoukl not be cOO1lrued .s an offkiall\genc~ pronouncement. CommenlS al"<l '''99''stlons ~afding lhoe FEWS bulklin should be odd",s....J 10 lhe fEWS Di"":IOI .1 IJ>e address below.

FEWS Pro ject ARD, In(.

1611 N. Kent Street, Suite 1002 Arlington, VA 22209 USA Telephone: 703-S22-7722 Fax: 703-522-7729 E-mail: FEWSOCAIS.COM

fEWS bulletin AFRl%{JS. May 27, 1996