Use and distribution of extractive sector revenues

Roger Hosein

07/04/2014 1

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Table 4: Trinidad and Tobago’s Macroeconomic indicators, 1991 ‐2011Total reserves in months of imports (Import Cover)

Gross Official Reserves ($US mn) CAB (% of GDP)

GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$)

1991 1.92 357.68 ‐0.09 5,007.591992 1.12 190.21 2.51 4,887.101993 1.53 228.18 2.47 4,778.191994 2.3 373.08 4.4 4,911.23

1995 1.77 379.08 5.51 5,071.291996 2.47 563.76 1.83 5,240.661997 2.36 723.24 ‐10.69 5,354.501998 2.62 800.04 ‐10.65 5,743.771999 3.31 962.76 0.45 5,970.332000 3.81 1,402.80 6.67 6,311.112001 5.01 1,712.70 4.71 6,544.682002 5.35 1,760.10 0.85 7,044.092003 5.89 2,007.50 8.76 8,033.102004 6.69 2,993.00 12.78 8,637.572005 8.43 4,885.70 22.49 9,242.202006 9.84 6,530.80 39.4 10,264.672007 8.72 6,673.50 24.7 10,714.742008 11.4 9,380.30 30.3 10,959.662009 11.9 8,651.60 8.5 10,555.892010 13.1 9,070.00 20.2 10,513.53

2011 13.5 9,822.70 12.3 10,328.732012 

(provisional) 10.4 9,200.10 5.5 10,452.67Source: AES of T&T (Various years)

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GDP (constant LCU), TT$mn GDP (current LCU), TT$mn

2000 51370.56 51370.56

2001 53474 55007.2

2002 57759.2 56290

2003 66095.9 70731.5

2004 71317.47 81160.8

2005 75428.75 100682

2006 85795.4 115951.1

2007 89874.3 136952.5

2008 92922.6 175287.2

2009 88841.7 121281.3

2010 89029.2 131289.4

2011 86731.3 150373.2

2012 87810.9 153587.7

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GDP per capita (constant LCU) GDP per capita (current LCU)1990 30781.43 17627.651991 31401.29 18531.51992 30694.87 18999.411993 30081.8 19714.481994 31006.16 23443.431995 32112.08 25256.631996 33290.2 27485.351997 34127.82 28453.521998 36724.88 30149.521999 38268.78 33910.272000 40513.7 40513.72001 42027.84 43232.862002 45204.79 44054.932003 51481.85 55092.52004 55268.63 62896.872005 58159.33 77630.842006 65820.37 88955.162007 68604.24 104540.72008 70585.8 133151.52009 67176.17 91704.842010 67035.26 98855.432011 65060.74 112801.22012 65656 114837.2

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GDP (constant 2005 US$) Total natural resources rents (% of GDP)1970 6019.9 8.51975 6890.0 34.91980 10065.7 47.51981 10526.4 37.61982 10951.3 28.21983 9943.4 23.91984 9371.4 25.01985 8985.3 25.01986 8690.7 19.81987 8294.0 22.01988 7969.1 18.81989 7903.2 22.81990 8022.4 27.31991 8237.6 20.91992 8101.9 18.81993 7984.5 20.41994 8268.9 18.31995 8595.9 18.11996 8935.2 22.51997 9176.8 20.61998 9889.8 13.61999 10323.8 15.42000 10957.0 34.12001 11405.7 29.22002 12319.7 26.72003 14097.9 41.52004 15211.6 44.22005 16088.5 62.22006 18299.7 63.62007 19169.7 54.62008 19819.9 60.62009 18949.4 38.72010 18989.4 36.72011 18499.3 37.62012 18729.6 36.6

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Table 5: Real GDP Growth Rate of various sectors, 1996‐2012Date

Petroleu

m

Non

 

Petroleu

m

Petroche

mic

als

Other 

Petroleu

m

Governm

en

t

Agriculture

Constructio

n

Manufacturi

ng

Distrib

ution

Finance, 

Insurance&

Other 

Services

1996 7.48 7.22 12.19 6.79 2.08 6.90 5.31 4.39 8.52 11.16 2.01

1997 0.86 11.34 5.96 0.08 0.63 13.10 ‐0.65 7.91 18.08 22.51 1.56

1998 9.08 6.76 11.16 8.74 0.60 ‐7.20 14.20 11.48 7.07 ‐0.44 10.71

1999 21.50 3.38 26.46 20.68 ‐4.34 2.30 5.99 ‐7.18 7.98 11.71 1.37

2000 12.40 5.48 3.18 14.00 ‐6.09 ‐2.40 7.56 6.04 5.89 12.38 ‐1.78

2001 5.59 2.83 6.75 5.40 ‐1.47 8.70 10.26 9.78 ‐2.77 0.78 2.11

2002 13.50 4.82 12.46 13.66 3.65 8.70 ‐5.08 3.80 1.32 11.54 5.23

2003 31.40 6.70 4.50 35.50 ‐1.00 ‐15.30 23.40 12.20 2.00 7.30 1.70

2004 8.20 6.70 11.30 7.50 0.60 ‐34.20 8.10 5.20 3.20 21.70 4.10

2005 8.30 5.00 19.50 n.d. 1.90 ‐5.40 16.10 13.50 4.50 ‐2.40 0.07

2006 21.80 6.40 15.30 22.70 ‐1.50 ‐10.10 6.20 13.50 15.10 1.00 5.20

2007 1.70 7.60 ‐2.30 2.20 3.20 21.80 7.10 16.30 3.30 10.40 2.80

2008 ‐0.30 6.50 ‐2.80 n.d. 1.70 7.60 4.50 4.10 17.60 3.10 ‐4.60

2009 ‐1.80 ‐4.90 8.70 ‐3.10 19.10 ‐32.40 ‐7.10 1.90 ‐20.40 ‐4.50 5.60

2010 3.20 ‐2.60 ‐0.80 3.70 1.20 76.80 ‐28.40 1.20 ‐9.70 8.10 1.50

2011 ‐3.90 ‐0.50 ‐4.70 ‐3.80 ‐0.70 ‐0.10 ‐8.80 ‐1.10 4.70 ‐0.60 ‐1.50

2012 1 00 1 90 0 80 1 10 1 00 4 90 2 00 0 40 1 40 6 10 0 70

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Table 6: Real GDP growth rate of the T&T Economy (Quarter‐on‐Quarter %)GDP Growth Rate (2000=100)

Mar‐05 1.61Jun‐05 1.28Sep‐05 ‐0.99Dec‐05 3.7Mar‐06 4.32Jun‐06 4.04Sep‐06 1.2Dec‐06 ‐1.12Mar‐07 2.79Jun‐07 ‐1.3Sep‐07 1.51Dec‐07 3.15Mar‐08 ‐0.83Jun‐08 ‐0.83Sep‐08 2.67Dec‐08 ‐2.08Mar‐09 ‐4.56Jun‐09 0.79Sep‐09 ‐0.45Dec‐09 5.21Mar‐10 ‐3.42Jun‐10 ‐2.32Sep‐10 2.32Dec‐10 0.21Mar‐11 ‐2.58Jun‐11 1.77Sep‐11 ‐1.69Dec‐11 0.41Mar‐12 0.1Jun‐12 ‐1.6Sep‐12 3.08Dec‐12 ‐0.44Mar‐13 0.66Jun‐13 n a

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Table 7: Quarterly Real GDP growth of Petroleum and Non‐Petroleum Sector, Q2 2010‐Q1 2013

Date Non‐Petroleum Petroleum Total

Jun‐10 ‐2.31 ‐2.33 ‐2.32

Sep‐10 2.6 1.95 2.32

Dec‐10 1.52 ‐1.54 0.21

Mar‐11 ‐3.42 ‐1.43 ‐2.58

Jun‐11 1.08 2.69 1.77

Sep‐11 0.95 ‐5.21 ‐1.69

Dec‐11 3.31 ‐3.7 0.41

Mar‐12 ‐3.86 6.12 0.1

Jun‐12 0.35 ‐4.29 ‐1.6

Sep‐12 3.24 2.84 3.08

Dec‐12 2.19 ‐4.26 ‐0.44

Mar‐13 ‐3.19 6.61 0.66

Source: CBTT Database, 2013

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Rank  Score 

2006‐2007 76 3.95

2007‐2008 84 3.88

2008‐2009 92 3.85

2009‐2010 86 3.91

2010‐2011 84 3.97

2011‐2012 81 4

2012‐2013 84 4.01

2013‐2014 92 3.91

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1.02 Intellectual property protection ............................... 3.3 ............91

1.04 Public trust in politicians ......................................... 2.2 ..........111

1.05 Irregular payments and bribes ................................ 3.5 ............95

1.07 Favoritism in decisions of government officials ....... 2.4 ..........125

1.08 Wastefulness of government spending ................... 2.9 ............96

1.12 Transparency of government policymaking ............. 3.9 ............94

1.14 Business costs of crime and violence..................... 2.3 ..........145

1.15 Organized crime ..................................................... 4.1 ..........120

1.16 Reliability of police services .................................... 3.1 ..........121

1.17 Ethical behavior of firms ......................................... 3.4 ..........118

1.18 Strength of auditing and reporting standards ......... 4.2 ............95

1.19 Efficacy of corporate boards .................................. 4.1 ..........116

1.20 Protection of minority shareholders’ interests ......... 3.7 ..........111

2.06 Available airline seat km/week, millions* ............... 61.4 ............95

3.03 Inflation, annual % change* .................................... 9.3 ..........129

4.05 Business impact of HIV/AIDS ................................. 4.4 ..........115

4.06 HIV prevalence, % adult pop.* ............................. 1.50 ..........122

4.07 Infant mortality, deaths/1,000 live births* .............. 24.5 ............96

4.08 Life expectancy, years* ......................................... 70.0 ............96

5.02 Tertiary education enrollment, gross %*................ 11.5 ..........113

6.03 Effectiveness of anti‐monopoly policy ..................... 3.7 ..........104

6.07 No. days to start a business* .................................. 41 ..........127

6.08 Agricultural policy costs.......................................... 3.4 ..........113

6.10 Trade tariffs, % duty* ............................................ 10.5 ..........111

6.13 Burden of customs procedures .............................. 3.1 ..........133

6.14 Imports as a percentage of GDP* ........................ 33.3 ..........111

6.15 Degree of customer orientation .............................. 3.6 ..........137

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7.01 Cooperation in labor‐employer relations ................. 3.5 ..........134

7.02 Flexibility of wage determination ............................. 4.5 ..........108

7.04 Redundancy costs, weeks of salary* .................... 20.5 ............96

7.06 Pay and productivity ............................................... 3.3 ..........123

7.10 Women in labor force, ratio to men* ..................... 0.73 ............94

8.04 Ease of access to loans ......................................... 2.5 ............93

8.05 Venture capital availability ....................................... 2.2 ..........111

9.07 Mobile broadband subscriptions/100 pop.*............ 1.5 ..........117

10th pillar: Market size

10.01 Domestic market size index, 1–7 (best)* ................. 2.4 ..........120

10.02 Foreign market size index, 1–7 (best)* .................... 3.9 ............98

10.03 GDP (PPP$ billions)* ............................................ 26.7 ..........103

11.03 State of cluster development .................................. 3.5 ............91

11.04 Nature of competitive advantage ............................ 3.0 ..........114

11.05 Value chain breadth ................................................ 3.4 ..........102

11.09 Willingness to delegate authority ............................ 3.3 ..........111

12th pillar: Innovation

12.01 Capacity for innovation ........................................... 2.9 ..........123

12.02 Quality of scientific research institutions ................. 3.3 ..........100

12.03 Company spending on R&D ................................... 2.7 ..........117

12.04 University‐industry collaboration in R&D ................. 3.2 ..........102

12.05 Gov’t procurement of advanced tech products ...... 2.7 ..........130

Shale gas• Shale gas has become not only an energyexploration and production issue wherever it is ormight be located, but also a macroeconomic issuefor national economies, a microeconomic issue forenergy‐intensive industry sectors, a globalenvironmental issue for local communities, apublic safety and health issue wherever there isexploration or production, and an energyindependence and national security issue incountries that are dependent on oil importsand/or gas imports.07/04/2014 12

• Like labour and capital, natural resources arefactors of production that serve as inputs ingoods and services production. While there isa broad range of natural resources that couldbe discussed, the focus here will be on energyand, to a limited extent, on land and water,which are the natural resources typicallyincluded in aggregate production functions(for discussion of trade and a wider variety ofnatural resources, see the 2010 World TradeReport (WTO, 2010) and Ruta and Venables(2012).07/04/2014 13

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Rapid growth in demand

•

‐60

140

340

540

740

940

1,140

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Demand for Gas (BCM)

Total North America Total S. & Cent. America Total Europe & Eurasia Total Middle East Total Africa Total Asia Pacific

Rapid growth in demand• India is building infrastructure for importing LNG

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Terminal Commissioning Capacity

Dahej LNG Termina 2004 5 in 2004, 10 in 2009, 15 planned for 2016

Hazira  LNG  Terminal 2005 10.0 million tons per annum (mmtpa) is planned, currently at 2.5 mmtpa

Dabhol LNG  Terminal 2014 after the construction of the breakwater (the breakwater is equipment in the water to protect ships from big waves

10.0 million tons per annum (mmtpa)

Kochi LNG Terminal Q 3, 2013 5.0 mmtpa

Gangavaram LNG Terminal

Planned for 2016 5.0 mmtpa

Source: Petronet LNG LTD, May 2013. http://www.petronetlng.com/PDF/Corporate_Presentation_as_on_May_2013_USD_29052013.pdf

Rapid growth in demand• India is building infrastructure for importing LNG

07/04/2014 17

0.00

200000000,000.00

400000000,000.00

600000000,000.00

800000000,000.00

1000000000,000.00

1200000000,000.00

1400000000,000.00

1600000000,000.001961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

India GDP (constant 2005, US$)

Surge in productionAnother feature of world natural gas markets is shale gas. USshale gas deposits has been proven has risen from 23 TCF in2007 to 60.6 TCF in 2011 to 131.616 TCF in 2011, and 665TCF by 2013.

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Source: US EIA database

year US Shale gas (TCF)

2007 23.304

2008 34.428

2009 60.644

2010 97.449

2011 131.616

Surge in production

•

07/04/2014 19Source: EIA database

Surge in production

07/04/2014 20

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Axis Title

Henry Hub prices

HH

07/04/2014 21

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Table 12: Improper use of subsidies and economic rents

23

Transfers and Subsidies(TT$mn)   Central Gov't Current 

Revenue ‐ Oil (TT$mns)Non‐Institutional Population (000's)

Unemployment Rate (%) 

Real Economicgrowth Rate  

Unemployment (000's)

1991 1305.2 2,717.5 837.2 18.4 2.68 91.11992 1054.3 1,817.5 841.0 19.5 ‐1.65 99.11993 1203.9 1,804.4 847.9 19.7 ‐1.45 99.91994 1437.4 1,895.9 857.2 18.3 3.56 93.71995 1597.4 2,554.7 864.8 17.1 3.95 89.31996 2114.5 3,060.7 876.6 16.2 3.95 86.11997 1828.1 2,020.5 896.6 15.0 2.7 81.11998 2199.3 1,151.5 913.4 14.2 7.77 79.41999 2369.8 1,999.6 926.0 13.1 4.39 74.02000 3041.1 4,403.6 936.1 12.1 6.13 69.52001 3157.4 3,508.5 954.9 10.8 4.09 62.42002 3525.5 3,668.7 961.8 10.4 8.01 61.12003 4148.8 6,904.6 968.2 10.4 14.43 62.32004 6268.2 8,159.3 973.6 8.3 7.9 51.12005 8177.3 15,851.8 979.0 7.9 5.76 49.62006 10934.5 21,111.5 978.2 6.2 13.2 39.02007 13296.7 19,365.9 980.8 5.5 4.8 34.52008 14653.3 31,100.5 987.1 4.6 2.7 29.12009 15539.6 15,330.4 991.1 5.3 ‐3.3 32.62010 15676.6 19,123.2 997.1 5.9 ‐0.02 36.72011 19717.6 23,292.8 1,005.7 5.8 ‐1.4 31.12012 19632.2 9,618.3 1,009.5 4.9   0.2 33.82013p 11,428.5* ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

24

CEPEPTable 10: Budgetary allocations to CEPEP

Fiscal Year Budget Allocation (Millions)May to September 2002 $75

2003 $155 2004 $225 2005 $2442006 $4232007 $350 2008 $3282009 $3302010 $3192011 $3202012 $3202013 $468

Source: Social Sector Investment Programme Reports (Various Years)

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minimum wage

imputed minimum wage

real minimum wage

Index of Retail Prices ‐ All Items ‐(Jan. 03=100)

1998 7 7.0 83.4 100.0 7.01999 7 7.2 86.2 103.4 6.82000 7 7.5 89.3 107.1 6.52001 7 7.9 94.2 113.0 6.22002 7 8.2 98.1 117.7 5.92003 7 8.6 101.9 122.2 5.72004 7 8.9 105.7 126.8 5.52005 7 9.5 112.9 135.5 5.22006 9 10.3 122.3 146.8 6.12007 9 11.1 132.0 158.4 5.72008 9 12.4 147.9 177.4 5.12009 9 13.3 158.2 189.8 4.72010 9 14.7 174.9 209.8 4.32011 12.5 15.4 183.8 220.5 5.72012 12.5 16.9 200.8 240.9 5.22013 12.5 17.7 211.3 253.4 4.9

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Distribution of Elementary Workers by Industrial Group

YearTotal Agriculture

Manufacturing (excludes sugar and petroleum)

CSPTotal Employed Labor Force

EW(excludes sugar)

1991 401085 103300 15600 7800 23600

1992 406054 102100 16500 7900 31200

1993 404634 102100 15300 6500 33000

1994 415602 107400 17600 7900 36500

1995 431608 103700 14200 8000 37400

1996 444220 108100 12800 8400 41700

1997 459876 110300 12400 9000 42000

1998 479313 112800 11900 10200 34000

1999 489351 116500 11800 9800 36400

2000 503334 115300 11000 9600 35100

2001 514126 114600 10000 9400 36000

2002 525081 115700 9100 10300 34600

2003 534153 117700 8900 10800 37100

2004 562378 124700 8400 11200 42600

2005 574025 130100 8000 11100 40100

2006 586205 127300 7600 11200 39400

2007 587892 120500 7200 9800 36700

2008 597700 121200 7700 9900 37500

2009 588300 133400 7400 10000 36300

2010 582200 125900 5900 7800 40900

2011 585346 123300 6700 7000 43000

Source:  CSO, Continuous Sampling Survey of the Population (various years)

07/04/2014 27

Figure 2: Employment Trends in selected segments of the Labor Market, 1991 ‐ 2010

YearTotal Employment

Employment in Community social and personal employment (CSP)

Elementary Occupations in CSP

Women in elementary employment jobs in the CSP sector

Number of workers in  CSP working less than 33 hours

CSP/TOTAL employment (%)

Total Elementary Occupations

1991 401085 115700 23600 12400 22600 28.8 103300 25.81992 406054 142000 31200 17400 48300 35.0 102100 25.11993 404634 143900 33000 19300 48000 35.6 102100 25.21994 415602 145600 36500 20200 42600 35.0 107400 25.81995 431608 154100 37400 20300 46800 35.7 103700 24.01996 444220 160800 41700 22500 46600 36.2 108100 24.31997 459876 163500 42000 32800 44500 35.6 110300 24.01998 479313 147100 34000 17400 26500 30.7 112800 23.51999 489351 151500 36400 18800 28400 31.0 116500 23.82000 503334 151400 35100 18200 28000 30.1 115300 22.92001 514126 154400 36000 17500 22400 30.0 114600 22.32002 525081 158100 34600 18300 23200 30.1 115700 22.02003 534153 163200 37100 20600 24600 30.6 117700 22.02004 562378 175300 42600 23700 22400 31.2 124700 22.22005 574025 176500 40100 21800 19700 30.7 130100 22.72006 586205 181100 39400 20400 21300 30.9 127300 21.72007 587892 178600 36700 20100 20400 30.4 120500 20.52008 597700 179500 37500 21200 19400 30.0 121200 20.32009 588300 182500 36300 19700 20600 31.0 133400 22.72010 582200 192300 40900 20900 20900 33.0 125900 21.62011 585346 192800 43000 18800 20200 32.9 123300 21.1

Source: Continuous Sampling Survey of the Population, various years

07/04/2014 28

Date Persons with Jobs (000's) Labour Force (000's) Unemployment (000's) Unemployment Rate (%) Participation Ratio (%)

Mar‐2005 567.00 623.30 56.30 9.00 63.81Jun‐2005 569.60 618.90 49.30 8.00 63.22Sep‐2005 569.40 620.10 50.60 8.20 63.29Dec‐2005 589.90 632.60 42.70 6.70 64.52Mar‐2006 582.40 625.10 42.70 6.80 63.71Jun‐2006 582.90 627.90 45.10 7.20 64.28Sep‐2006 582.60 619.50 36.80 5.90 63.40Dec‐2006 596.80 628.40 31.60 5.00 64.25Mar‐2007 575.10 615.40 40.30 6.50 62.89Jun‐2007 579.70 616.70 37.00 6.00 62.89Sep‐2007 593.30 625.90 32.60 5.20 63.76Dec‐2007 603.10 631.40 28.30 4.50 64.26Mar‐2008 588.40 620.80 32.60 5.30 63.12Jun‐2008 592.80 621.40 28.60 4.60 62.95Sep‐2008 600.80 630.70 29.90 4.70 63.83Dec‐2008 608.70 633.60 24.90 3.90 64.05Mar‐2009 598.20 630.00 31.80 5.00 63.63Jun‐2009 592.50 624.30 31.80 5.10 62.98Sep‐2009 580.20 616.10 35.90 5.80 62.14Dec‐2009 582.60 613.50 31.00 5.10 61.86Mar‐2010 573.50 614.60 41.10 6.70 61.95Jun‐2010 578.90 608.40 29.50 4.80 61.02Sep‐2010 584.30 620.80 36.60 5.90 62.17Dec‐2010 591.80 631.60 39.80 6.30 63.16Mar‐2011 n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d.Jun‐2011 581.90 617.80 35.90 5.80 61.62Sep‐2011 578.00 609.50 31.50 5.20 60.56Dec‐2011 596.10 621.90 25.90 4.20 61.70Mar‐2012 589.60 623.50 33.80 5.40 61.76Jun‐2012 596.80 627.30 30.50 4.90 61.83Sep‐2012 600.90 631.50 30.60 4.80 62.04

07/04/2014 29

DateEmployment in Agriculture (000's)

Employment in Construction (incl.Electricity & Water) ‐

(000's)

Employment in Manufacturing 

(000's)

Employment in All Other Sectors 

(000's)

Employment in Petroleum & Gas 

(000's)

Persons Employed ‐Transport Storage & 

Comm. (000's)Mar‐05 26 98.3 56.9 325.3 17.6 41.4Jun‐05 21.1 103.2 56.3 323.1 20.2 42.5Sep‐05 25.8 100.5 52.6 328.7 20.2 39.4Dec‐05 27.2 105.2 60.6 331.1 19 43.9Mar‐06 24.5 102.2 59.4 329.8 19.5 43.7Jun‐06 28.8 101.7 55.4 330.9 20.8 43.3Sep‐06 23.9 105.7 57 333.2 19.1 43.1Dec‐06 25.8 108.5 53 348.3 19.4 40.8Mar‐07 22.5 103.3 59.8 326.9 22 40.1Jun‐07 26.7 112 54.3 323.1 21.4 41.7Sep‐07 21.7 111.7 54.3 341 22.7 41.5Dec‐07 18.8 113.5 53.2 354.7 19.9 42.8Mar‐08 22.9 115.3 57 328.8 18.4 45Jun‐08 29.7 116.4 57.7 325.6 20.9 41.9Sep‐08 23.3 121.3 53.2 342.4 20.1 39.8Dec‐08 16.3 112.5 56.1 364 21.4 37.8Mar‐09 21.3 111.5 53.7 346.6 18.5 45.2Jun‐09 26.3 114.9 49.9 340.3 18.2 41.2Sep‐09 22.2 117.2 54.3 329.1 19.7 37Dec‐09 22 110 54.3 339.1 20.6 35.2Mar‐10 21.1 97.9 52.2 343.5 19 39.7Jun‐10 18.4 96.3 51.9 354.9 18.8 38.2Sep‐10 23.6 101.5 52.6 349.6 17.3 38.5Dec‐10 23 106.5 51.8 352.1 19.4 35.3Mar‐11 n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d.Jun‐11 20.5 92.8 47.1 360.2 17.6 42Sep‐11 21.4 98.4 50.1 349.1 19.3 38.4Dec‐11 23.3 101.9 53.3 353 19.5 42.1Mar‐12 22.2 99.5 47.3 358.4 21.2 40.3Jun‐12 19.5 100.6 47.2 363 20 44.1

Table 14: Fuel Subsidy claimed on types of Fuel

Calendar yearSubsidy Claimed (TT$mn)

Premium95 RON

  Super 92 RON

Regular 83 RON

Auto Diesel

Kerosene LPG TOTAL

2007 411.87 579.43 18.97 1,144.33 17.66 38.04 2,210.302008 638.55 816.31 23.08 2,061.03 28.57 50.42 3,617.952009 (5.69) 517.73 9.05 1,000.14 12.81 65.80 1,599.842010 95.33 927.46 14.35 1,792.17 20.78 69.23 2,919.322011 236.22 1,634.21 26.30 2,407.65 34.43 74.11 4,412.932012 203.91 1,863.09 23.37 2,352.11 31.36 74.11 4,547.95

2013 YTD (July 2013)

23.99 1,165.29 11.93 1,331.43 16.57 48.51 2,597.71

Source: Ministry of Energy and Energy Affairs, 2013

30

31

Table 15: Motor Vehicles on Register 

Year PrivateHire and Rented Omnibus

Goods Vehicles

Tractors and Trailers

Motor Cycles Industrial

Total Registered

Real GDP 

1991 139310 22853 288 35943 7357 2185 386 208322 30359.62010 372853 42 635 644 96 061 15 693 5 995 1 294 535175 89285.1

2011p 373244 42912 673 96824 15964 6106 1324 537047 88060.8

Introduction to the GATE Programme

2001: Dollar for Dollar programme –50% TLE Tuition 

Funding

2004: GATE Programme – 50% Tuition Funding + Up 

to 100% Tuition Funding based on 

Means Test

2006: GATE Programme Modified – 100% Universal Tuition Funding for persons wishing to 

pursue TLE

32

The GATE Programme• One of the major goals created for the GATEprogramme was the attainment of a tertiaryparticipation rate of 60% by 2015. By 2008, thetertiary participation rate within Trinidad andTobago had increased to 40% (Trinidad andTobago International Financial Centre).

• In addition to the increase in the tertiaryparticipation rate, the introduction of the GATEProgramme “ brought with it a mushrooming ofprivate tertiary level institutions.”

33

Table 2: Showing the Number of Participating TLIs in Trinidad and Tobago

34

Year Number of GATE Approved Private Institutions 

Number of GATE ApprovedPublic Institutions

2004‐2007 31 21

2007‐2009 34 16

2009‐2011 37 16

2011‐2013 42 16

Report of the Standing Committee on the GATE Programme (2011)

Expenditure on and Beneficiaries of GATE ProgrammeTable 3: Total Expenditure $TT (Millions)

Fiscal Year Private Institutions Public Institutions Number of Students

Receiving GATE Funding

2004/2005 $30 $72 27,214

2005/2006 $70 $110 38,669

2006/2007 $244 $229 57,328

2007/2008 $232 $270 53,437

2008/2009 $240 $335 52,822

2009/2010 $236 $349 53,711

2010/2011 $281 $344 45,040

35Report of the Standing Committee on the GATE Programme (2011)

Figure 3: Effect of Dollar for Dollar on the Income of Households Pursuing TLE

0

Yp

Ym

Yr

Y0d

Y1d

Financial Need

Hp Hm Hr

Income of Households

50% Fees Subsidised

36

Figure 4: Additional Funding Needed by Poorest Households for TLE

YUF

Yr

Financial Need

Income of

Households

Hp Hm

A

Hr

0

Y1d

A

37

Figure 5: Effect of “Oil Windfall” GATE on Income of Households Pursuing TLE

A

B

Hp

Y1d

Hm Hr

0

YGd

Yr

YrG

Income of Households

Financial Need

Ym

Yp

38

39

Table 4: Comparison of Household Expenditure and Access to GATE by Income Group of Head and Household Income Group

Income Group (TT$) Average Size of

Household by Income

Group of Head

% Accessing GATE

Funding by Income

Group of Head

Percentage Distribution

of households by

Household Income Group

Average Monthly

Savings per household

by Household Income

Group

All Income Groups 3.4 0.9 100.0 $1033.60

Less than 1,000 3.8 0.5 2.0 $114.10

1,000-2,999 3.1 0.2 10.4 $298.50

3,000-4,999 3.3 0.3 17.0 $292.90

5,000-6,999 3.4 1 17.2 $503.40

7,000-8,999 3.5 1.8 14.0 $767.50

9,000-10,999 3.4 4.6 11.7 $981.20

11,000-12,999 3.3 2.9 7.6 $1389.50

13,000-14,999 3.3 5.5 5.2 $1706.70

15,000-16,999 3.3 1.5 3.9 $1894.40

17,000-18,999 3.3 7.9 2.9 $2110.60

19,000-20,999 4.1 0 2.1 $2256.80

21,000-22,999 4.1 0 1.5 $3418.00

23,000-24,999 2.9 0 0.9 $3293.80

25,000 and Over 3.2 5 3.6 $5079.90

Source: Trinidad and Tobago Household Budget Survey 2008/09*7,090 Households Participated in this Survey

40

Table 5: Percentage Distribution of Household Member by Type of Government Social Program Accessed by Household Member, Income Area and Urban/Rural Classification

Type of Government Social Programmes

Accessed by Household Member

Income Area Urban/Rural Classificaiton

All Househo

lds Low Middle High Urban Rural

Old Age Pension 7.1 7.1 7.2 6.7 6.7 7.6

Public Assistant 1.8 2.6 1.8 0.8 1.4 2.3

Disability Grant 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.6

TCCIP (Smart Card) 1.5 2.2 1.5 0.6 1 2.2

Gate 2.2 1.4 1.9 3.6 2.7 1.4

Thank you

07/04/2014 41