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User meeting 14-16 June 2006 1
Monthly and Seasonal forecasts
Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section
User meeting 14-16 June 2006
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 2
Outline:Monthly Forecast:
- Performance - Verification information is available on web- New products are made available on the web
Seasonal forecast:
- Performance- EUROSIP multi-model products in progress - S3 verification/documentation in progress
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 3
MAM02 MAM03 MAM04 MAM05 MAM060.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
MAM02 MAM03 MAM04 MAM05 MAM060.4
0.45
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
Performance over the Northern Extra-tropics
Monthly Forecast
Persistence of day 5-11
ROC area of probability of 2-meter temperature in upper tercile
Day 12-18 Day 19-32
Monthly Forecast
Persistence of day 5-18
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 4
Monthly Forecast verification site:
-
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 5
Examples of verification
Example of probabilistic scores:
80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E
20041007 TO 20060504DAY 12-18ROC SCORE : 2-meter temperature in upper tercileECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
<0.1 0.1..0.2 0.2..0.3 0.3..0.4 0.4..0.5 0.5..0.6 0.6..0.7 0.7..0.8 0.8..0.9 > 0.9
ROC Map
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 6
Example of verification: Extreme cold over Russia
80°S 80°S
60°S 60°S
40°S 40°S
20°S 20°S
0° 0°
20°N 20°N
40°N 40°N
60°N 60°N
80°N 80°N
160°W
160°W
120°W
120°W
80°W
80°W
40°W
40°W
0°
0°
40°E
40°E
80°E
80°E
120°E
120°E
160°E
160°E
80°S 80°S
60°S 60°S
40°S 40°S
20°S 20°S
0° 0°
20°N 20°N
40°N 40°N
60°N 60°N
80°N 80°N
160°W
160°W
120°W
120°W
80°W
80°W
40°W
40°W
0°
0°
40°E
40°E
80°E
80°E
120°E
120°E
160°E
160°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 16-01-2006/TO/22-01-20062-meter Temperature anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
80°S 80°S
60°S 60°S
40°S 40°S
20°S 20°S
0° 0°
20°N 20°N
40°N 40°N
60°N 60°N
80°N 80°N
160°W
160°W
120°W
120°W
80°W
80°W
40°W
40°W
0°
0°
40°E
40°E
80°E
80°E
120°E
120°E
160°E
160°E
80°S 80°S
60°S 60°S
40°S 40°S
20°S 20°S
0° 0°
20°N 20°N
40°N 40°N
60°N 60°N
80°N 80°N
160°W
160°W
120°W
120°W
80°W
80°W
40°W
40°W
0°
0°
40°E
40°E
80°E
80°E
120°E
120°E
160°E
160°E
80°S 80°S
60°S 60°S
40°S 40°S
20°S 20°S
0° 0°
20°N 20°N
40°N 40°N
60°N 60°N
80°N 80°N
160°W
160°W
120°W
120°W
80°W
80°W
40°W
40°W
0°
0°
40°E
40°E
80°E
80°E
120°E
120°E
160°E
160°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 12-01-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 05-01-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 29-12-2005: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 22-12-2005: DAY 26-32
<-10deg
-10.. -6
-6.. -3
-3.. -1
-1.. 0
0.. 1
1.. 3
3.. 6
6.. 10
> 10deg
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 7
Cold event over Europe
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 27-02-2006/TO/05-03-20062-meter Temperature anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 23-02-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 16-02-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 09-02-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 02-02-2006: DAY 26-32
<-10deg
-10.. -6
-6.. -3
-3.. -1
-1.. 0
0.. 1
1.. 3
3.. 6
6.. 10
> 10deg
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 8
Precipitation over India
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 08-05-2006/TO/14-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 13-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 15-05-2006/TO/21-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 22-05-2006/TO/28-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 29-05-2006/TO/04-06-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 25-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 08-05-2006/TO/14-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 13-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 15-05-2006/TO/21-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 22-05-2006/TO/28-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 29-05-2006/TO/04-06-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 25-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 08-05-2006/TO/14-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 13-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 15-05-2006/TO/21-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 22-05-2006/TO/28-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 29-05-2006/TO/04-06-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 25-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
08/05-15/05 15/05-22/05 22/05-29/05 29/05-05/06
An.
Day
5-11
Day
12-18
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60Forecast start reference is 01-06-2006Precipitation anomalyECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significance
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
DAY 5-11: 05-06-2006/TO/11-06-2006 DAY 12-18 :12-06-2006/TO/18-06-2006
DAY 19-25 :19-06-2006/TO/25-06-2006 DAY 26-32:26-06-2006/TO/02-07-2006
<-90mm -90..-60 -60..-30 -30..-10 -10.. 0 0.. 10 10.. 30 30.. 60 60.. 90 > 90mm
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 9
Indian monsoon Probability of precipitation in the upper tercile
27 real-time cases covering the period May-June-July-August 2002, 2003, 2004 , 2005
ROC score: 0.64 0.49DAY 12-18 DAY 19-25 DAY 26-32
ROC score: 0.58 0.49 ROC score: 0.46 0.48
SST PERT (K)
80°E
80°E
<*** -2..-1.0 -1.0..-0.5 -0.5..-0.2 -0.2..-0 0...0.2 0.2..0.5 0.5..1.0 1.0..2.0 > 2.0
Monthly Forecast
Persistence of the probabilities
of the previous week
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1false alarm rate
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
hit r
ate
Day 1220041007-20060504ECMWF Monthly Forecast, Precipin lower tercile , Area:South Africa
ROC score = 0.644ROC score = 0.470
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1rel FC distribution
255075
100125
Forecast
Persistence
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1false alarm rate
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
hit r
ate
Day 1920041007-20060504ECMWF Monthly Forecast, Precipin lower tercile , Area:South Africa
ROC score = 0.581ROC score = 0.493
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1rel FC distribution
0255075
100125
Forecast
Persistence
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1false alarm rate
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
hit r
ate
Day 2620041007-20060504ECMWF Monthly Forecast, Precipin lower tercile , Area:South Africa
ROC score = 0.461ROC score = 0.489
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1rel FC distribution
0306090
120150
Forecast
Persistence
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 10
Precipitation over Africa
08/05-15/05 15/05-22/05 22/05-29/05 29/05-05/06
An.
Day
5-11
Day
12-18
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60Forecast start reference is 01-06-2006Precipitation anomalyECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significance
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
DAY 5-11: 05-06-2006/TO/11-06-2006 DAY 12-18 :12-06-2006/TO/18-06-2006
DAY 19-25 :19-06-2006/TO/25-06-2006 DAY 26-32:26-06-2006/TO/02-07-2006
<-90mm -90..-60 -60..-30 -30..-10 -10.. 0 0.. 10 10.. 30 30.. 60 60.. 90 > 90mm
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 08-05-2006/TO/14-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 13-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 08-05-2006/TO/14-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 13-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 08-05-2006/TO/14-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 13-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 15-05-2006/TO/21-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 15-05-2006/TO/21-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 15-05-2006/TO/21-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 22-05-2006/TO/28-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 29-05-2006/TO/04-06-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 25-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 22-05-2006/TO/28-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 22-05-2006/TO/28-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 29-05-2006/TO/04-06-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 25-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 29-05-2006/TO/04-06-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 25-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 11
African monsoon Probability of precipitation in the upper tercile
27 real-time cases covering the period May-June-July-August 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005
ROC score: 0.59 0.54DAY 12-18 DAY 19-25 DAY 26-32
ROC score: 0.54 0.49 ROC score: 0.53 0.49
Monthly Forecast
Persistence of the probabilities
of the previous week
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1false alarm rate
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
hit r
ate
Day 1220041007-20060504ECMWF Monthly Forecast, Precipin lower tercile , Area:West Africa
ROC score = 0.592ROC score = 0.538
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1rel FC distribution
95
190285
380475
Forecast
Persistence
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1false alarm rate
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
hit r
ate
Day 1920041007-20060504ECMWF Monthly Forecast, Precipin lower tercile , Area:West Africa
ROC score = 0.541ROC score = 0.496
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1rel FC distribution
110220330440550
Forecast
Persistence
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1false alarm rate
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
hit r
ate
Day 2620041007-20060504ECMWF Monthly Forecast, Precipin lower tercile , Area:West Africa
ROC score = 0.532ROC score = 0.495
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1rel FC distribution
135270405540675
Forecast
Persistence
20W-25E, 0N-20N
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 12
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
RMM1
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
RM
M2
FORECAST BASED 03/02/2005 00UTCECMWF MONTHLY FORECASTS
OceanIndian
PacificWestern
ContinentMaritime
and AfricaWest Hem.
PHASE 1
PHASE 2
PHASE 3
PHASE 4 PHASE 5
PHASE 6
PHASE 7
PHASE 8
Day 1 Day 5 Day 10
Day 15 Day 20 Analysis
Ens. Mean
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
DAY
S
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30WLONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
FORECAST BASED 3/2/2005 00UTCENSEMBLE MEAN BETWEEN LAT 10S AND 10N
Velocity potential anomaly at 200 hPaHOVMOLLER DIAGRAM OF MONTHLY FORECAST
7/03 6/03 5/03 4/03 3/03 2/03 1/0328/0227/0226/0225/0224/0223/0222/0221/0220/0219/0218/0217/0216/0215/0214/0213/0212/0211/0210/02 9/02 8/02 7/02 6/02 5/02 4/02 3/02 2/02 1/0231/0130/0129/0128/0127/0126/0125/0124/0123/0122/0121/0120/0119/0118/0117/0116/0115/0114/0113/0112/0111/0110/01 9/01 8/01 7/01 6/01 5/01 4/01 3/01 2/01
FO
REC
AST
A
NAL
YSIS
Indian Ocean
Maritime continent
westernPacific
West. HemisAnd Africa
MJO real-time forecast
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 13
Stamp map of velocity potential at 200 hPa
Cntr T159
Velocity Potential anomaly at 200 hPa between 10N and 10S (countour every 2 m**2/s)FORECAST BASED 01/12/2005 00UTCECMWF MONTHLY FORECASTS
Forecast 1 Forecast 2 Forecast 3 Forecast 4 Forecast 5 Forecast 6 Forecast 7 Forecast 8 Forecast 9 Forecast 10
Forecast 11 Forecast 12 Forecast 13 Forecast 14 Forecast 15 Forecast 16 Forecast 17 Forecast 18 Forecast 19 Forecast 20
Forecast 21 Forecast 22 Forecast 23 Forecast 24 Forecast 25 Forecast 26 Forecast 27 Forecast 28 Forecast 29 Forecast 30
Forecast 31 Forecast 32 Forecast 33 Forecast 34 Forecast 35 Forecast 36 Forecast 37 Forecast 38 Forecast 39 Forecast 40
Forecast 41 Forecast 42 Forecast 43 Forecast 44 Forecast 45 Forecast 46 Forecast 47 Forecast 48 Forecast 49 Forecast 50
MJO real-time forecast
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 14
Nino3.4 Performance
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Ano
mal
y (d
eg C
)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Ensemble size is 40 SST obs: NCEP OIv2ECMWF forecasts at month 6
NINO3.4 SST forecast anomalies
Obs. anom. Fcast S2
MAGICS 6.10 cumal - net Fri May 19 15:06:42 2006
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 15
Performance during the most recent La Niña event
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 16
Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms
80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E 180°
180° 160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W
14.3 10.39.8 13.325.1 26.22 2.9
No Significance 90% Significance 95% Significance 99% Significance
Ensemble size = 40,climate size = 70Forecast start reference is 01/06/2005Tropical Storm FrequencyECMWF Seasonal Forecast
Significance level is 90%JASON
FORECAST CLIMATE
Forecasts starting on 1st June 2005: JASON
ECMWF
EUROSIP
OBS: JJASON 2005
0 1 2 3 40
5
10
15
20
20051993-2004
WNP ENP Atl
80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E 180°
180° 160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W
17.8 11.88.7 12.520 212.3 2.5
No Significance Sig at 10% level Sig at 5% level Sig at 1% level
Ensemble size =120,climate size =180Forecast start reference is 01/06/2005Tropical Storm FrequencyEUROSIP multi-model seasonal forecast
Significance level is 10%JASON
ECMWF/Met Office/Météo-France
FORECAST CLIMATE
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 17
Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms 1993-2005Forecasts issued in June
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
3456789
10111213141516171819202122232425
Tro
pic
al S
torm
Nu
mb
er
2005
Forecast starting on 1st JuneTropical Storm Frequency over the North Atlantic (JASON)
RMS Error= 1.02( 0.77)Correlation=0.70( 0.99)
FORECAST Observations 2 Standard Deviations
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005YEAR
5
10
15
20
25
30
Nu
mb
er
of tr
op
ica
l sto
rms
Forecasts issued in June
CSU ForecastMulti-modelObs
ECMWF: corr 0.70
EUROSIP: corr 0.75
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 18
-0.5
0.50.5
0.5
0.50.5
1 1
1
1
1
1
1 12
-8-6-4-2-1.50.51.5357
Observed anomalies SST: JJA 2005
EUROSIP: Forecast start May 2005
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 19
-1
-1
-0.5
-0.5 -0.5
-0.5
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
0.2
0.2 0.2
0.2 0.2 0.2
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5 0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
1
1
11 1
1
1
12
2
2
2
2
24
-4-2-0.50.213
GPCP anomaly JJA 2005
Past performance (i):
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 20
EUROSIP predictions for DJF 2006 over Europe:
Prob (mslp > median)
Forecast started Nov 2005:
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
6
6
6 6
10
10
10
-1.5
-1.5
-1.5
1.5
1.5
1.51.5
1.5
3
ECMWF Mean of 31 Uninitialised Analyses Valid: VT:00UTC 1 December 2005 to 00UTC 31 December 2005 Surface: mean sea level pressure/Surf: mean sea
-30
-25
-10
-6
-2
-1
1
2
6
10
25
30
observed anomaly:
-1.5
-1.5
-1.5
-1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.51.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.51.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
3
3
3
3
3
3
333
4
4
ECMWF Mean of 31 Uninitialised Analyses Valid: VT:00UTC 1 December 2005 to 00UTC 31 December 2005 Surface: 2 metre temperature/Surf: 2 metre temp
-12-7-6-5-4-3-2-1-0.50.5123456712
2m temp
mslp
Prob (2m temp > median)
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 21
Ecmwf predictions for DJF 2006 over Europe:Forecast started Nov 2005:
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
6
6
6 6
10
10
10
-1.5
-1.5
-1.5
1.5
1.5
1.51.5
1.5
3
ECMWF Mean of 31 Uninitialised Analyses Valid: VT:00UTC 1 December 2005 to 00UTC 31 December 2005 Surface: mean sea level pressure/Surf: mean sea
-30
-25
-10
-6
-2
-1
1
2
6
10
25
30
observed anomaly:
-1.5
-1.5
-1.5
-1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.51.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.51.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
3
3
3
3
3
3
333
4
4
ECMWF Mean of 31 Uninitialised Analyses Valid: VT:00UTC 1 December 2005 to 00UTC 31 December 2005 Surface: 2 metre temperature/Surf: 2 metre temp
-12-7-6-5-4-3-2-1-0.50.5123456712
2m temp
mslp
Prob (2m temp > median)
Prob (mslp < median)
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 23
Seasonal forecast skill:
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 24
Seasonal forecast skill:
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 25
Skill comparison: S2 vs S3:S3
Operational (S2)
Persistence
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Verification month
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
An
om
aly
co
rre
latio
n
wrt NCEP adjusted OIv2 1971-2000 climatology
NINO3.4 SST anomaly correlation at 3,6 months
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Verification month
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Rm
s e
rro
r (d
eg
C)
Ensemble sizes are 3 (erwq) and 3 (0001) 73 start dates from 19870101 to 20050101
NINO3.4 SST rms errors at 3,6 months
Fcast erwq Fcast S2 Persistence
MAGICS 6.10 cumal - net Fri Jun 9 16:53:32 2006
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 26
Summary (1):
Monthly Forecast:
• Good performance over the Northern extra-tropics up to 19-32 days.
• Good skill in predicting the Indian monsoon.
• Prediction of the West African monsoon show less skill.
• Verification is on the website and it is updated every week.
• Additional products are made available on the web.
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 27
Summary (2):Seasonal Forecast:• Good performance for the predictions of SST
anomalies over the equatorial Pacific.
• Tropical storm predictions show a good skill and this is enhanced by the EUROSIP multi-model system.
• Neither the ECMWF or EUROSIP dynamical systems produced good predictions for the last winter (DJF 2005/06).
• The skill of the seasonal forecast varies with regions and seasons.
• Latest results from S3 indicate that the Niño predictions are generally improved.
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 32
Past performance: Guinea Coast precipitation from May 2005 forecasts
Met Office
Ecmwf
Météo France
May June July August September October
-3.9
-2.9
-1.9
-1.0
0.0
1.0
1.9
2.9
3.9
4.9
Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=045 Analysis climate=23 Forecast initial date: 2005 501 precip. anomalies (mm/day) latitude= 10.0 to 0.0 longitude= -10.0 to 15.0
May June July August September October
-3.9
-2.9
-1.9
-1.0
0.0
1.0
1.9
2.9
3.9
4.9
Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=045 Analysis climate=23 Forecast initial date: 2005 501 precip. anomalies (mm/day) latitude= 10.0 to 0.0 longitude= -10.0 to 15.0
May June July August September October
-3.9
-2.9
-1.9
-1.0
0.0
1.0
1.9
2.9
3.9
4.9
Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=045 Analysis climate=23 Forecast initial date: 2005 501 precip. anomalies (mm/day) latitude= 10.0 to 0.0 longitude= -10.0 to 15.0
May June July August September October
-3.9
-2.9
-1.9
-1.0
0.0
1.0
1.9
2.9
3.9
4.9
Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=045 Analysis climate=23 Forecast initial date: 2005 501 precip. anomalies (mm/day) latitude= 10.0 to 0.0 longitude= -10.0 to 15.0
May June July August September October
-6.2
-5.0
-3.7
-2.5
-1.2
0.0
1.2
2.5
3.7
5.0
Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=075 Analysis climate=23 Forecast initial date: 2005 501 precip. anomalies (mm/day) latitude= 10.0 to 0.0 longitude= -10.0 to 15.0
May June July August September October
-6.2
-5.0
-3.7
-2.5
-1.2
0.0
1.2
2.5
3.7
5.0
Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=075 Analysis climate=23 Forecast initial date: 2005 501 precip. anomalies (mm/day) latitude= 10.0 to 0.0 longitude= -10.0 to 15.0
May June July August September October
-6.2
-5.0
-3.7
-2.5
-1.2
0.0
1.2
2.5
3.7
5.0
Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=075 Analysis climate=23 Forecast initial date: 2005 501 precip. anomalies (mm/day) latitude= 10.0 to 0.0 longitude= -10.0 to 15.0
May June July August September October
-6.2
-5.0
-3.7
-2.5
-1.2
0.0
1.2
2.5
3.7
5.0
Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=075 Analysis climate=23 Forecast initial date: 2005 501 precip. anomalies (mm/day) latitude= 10.0 to 0.0 longitude= -10.0 to 15.0
May June July August September October
-8.0
-6.4
-4.8
-3.2
-1.6
0.0
1.6
3.2
4.8
6.4
Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=225 Analysis climate=23 Forecast initial date: 2005 501 precip. anomalies (mm/day) latitude= 10.0 to 0.0 longitude= -10.0 to 15.0
May June July August September October
-8.0
-6.4
-4.8
-3.2
-1.6
0.0
1.6
3.2
4.8
6.4
Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=225 Analysis climate=23 Forecast initial date: 2005 501 precip. anomalies (mm/day) latitude= 10.0 to 0.0 longitude= -10.0 to 15.0
May June July August September October
-8.0
-6.4
-4.8
-3.2
-1.6
0.0
1.6
3.2
4.8
6.4
Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=225 Analysis climate=23 Forecast initial date: 2005 501 precip. anomalies (mm/day) latitude= 10.0 to 0.0 longitude= -10.0 to 15.0
May June July August September October
-8.0
-6.4
-4.8
-3.2
-1.6
0.0
1.6
3.2
4.8
6.4
Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=225 Analysis climate=23 Forecast initial date: 2005 501 precip. anomalies (mm/day) latitude= 10.0 to 0.0 longitude= -10.0 to 15.0
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 33
SST DJF 2006
Ecmwf
Met Office
Météo France
-1
-1 -1
-0.5 -0.5
-0.5
0.5 0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.50.5
0.5
0.5
1
1
1
-10 -10-9 -9-8-7-6-5 -3
-1.5 -1.5
-1.5
-1.5
-1.5
-1.5
1.5
1.5
1.51.5
1.5
1.5
3
DJF 05/06 SST anomlies (1958-2001)
-10
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
10
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 34
2m temp predictions for DJF 2006: i.c. Nov 05
ECMWF
Met Office
Météo France
-4
-3-3
-3
-3
-2
-2 -2 -2
-2
-2
-1
-1-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
11
22
22
22
2
3
3 3
33 3
34
4
4
44
4
55
555
5 5
10
10
-2-2
-2
-2 -2
-2
-2
-2-2
-2
-2
2
2
2
22 2
2
2 2
22 4
4
4 6
ECMWF Mean of 31 Uninitialised Analyses Valid: VT:00UTC 1 December 2005 to 00UTC 31 December 2005 Surface: 2 metre temperature/Surf: 2 metre temp
-10
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
1
2
3
4
5
10
Observed anomalies
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 35
mslp predictions for DJF 2006: i.c. Nov 05
Met Office
ECMWF
Météo France
-4
-4-4
-4
-3 -3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1-1-1
-1 -1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1-1
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5-0.5
-0.5
-0.5-0.5
-0.5
0.50.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.50.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
11
1
1
1
11
1
1 1
1
22
2
2
22
2
22
2
33
3
3
3
33
33
3
44
44
4
4 4
4
4
4
-3-3
-3
-1.5
-1.5
-1.5-1.5
-1.5
-1.5
-1.5
-1.5
-1.5
1.5
1.51.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
33
3 4
ECMWF Mean of 31 Uninitialised Analyses Valid: VT:00UTC 1 December 2005 to 00UTC 31 December 2005 Surface: mean sea level pressure/Surf: mean sea
-60
-4
-3
-2
-1
-0.5
0.5
1
2
3
4
60
Observed anomalies
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 36
Predictions of 2m temp anomalies over Southern Europe:
Ecmwf
Met Office
Météo France
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 37
NAO Predictions :Météo France
Met Office
Ecmwf
November December January February March April
-6.5
-4.3
-2.2
0.0
2.2
4.3
Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=225 Analysis climate=43 Forecast initial date: 20051101North Atlantic Oscillation Index
November December January February March April
-6.5
-4.3
-2.2
0.0
2.2
4.3
Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=225 Analysis climate=43 Forecast initial date: 20051101North Atlantic Oscillation Index
November December January February March April
-6.5
-4.3
-2.2
0.0
2.2
4.3
Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=225 Analysis climate=43 Forecast initial date: 20051101North Atlantic Oscillation Index
November December January February March April
-6.5
-4.3
-2.2
0.0
2.2
4.3
Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=225 Analysis climate=43 Forecast initial date: 20051101North Atlantic Oscillation Index
November December January February March April
-6.5
-4.3
-2.2
0.0
2.2
4.3
Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=075 Analysis climate=43 Forecast initial date: 20051101North Atlantic Oscillation Index
November December January February March April
-6.5
-4.3
-2.2
0.0
2.2
4.3
Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=075 Analysis climate=43 Forecast initial date: 20051101North Atlantic Oscillation Index
November December January February March April
-6.5
-4.3
-2.2
0.0
2.2
4.3
Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=075 Analysis climate=43 Forecast initial date: 20051101North Atlantic Oscillation Index
November December January February March April
-6.5
-4.3
-2.2
0.0
2.2
4.3
Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=075 Analysis climate=43 Forecast initial date: 20051101North Atlantic Oscillation Index
November December January February March April
-6.5
-4.3
-2.2
0.0
2.2
4.3
Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=045 Analysis climate=43 Forecast initial date: 20051101North Atlantic Oscillation Index
November December January February March April
-6.5
-4.3
-2.2
0.0
2.2
4.3
Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=045 Analysis climate=43 Forecast initial date: 20051101North Atlantic Oscillation Index
November December January February March April
-6.5
-4.3
-2.2
0.0
2.2
4.3
Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=045 Analysis climate=43 Forecast initial date: 20051101North Atlantic Oscillation Index
November December January February March April
-6.5
-4.3
-2.2
0.0
2.2
4.3
Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=045 Analysis climate=43 Forecast initial date: 20051101North Atlantic Oscillation Index
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 38
DJF Correlation between:2m temp over (0-35E,10-30N)
and Z 500hPa (1987-2003)
DJF cor : (167(0-35E, 10N-30N) and 129 era40 1987-2003)
-1
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.2
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1
DJF cor : ( 167(0-35E, 10N-30N) and 139 er40 1987-2003)
-1
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.2
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1
Nino3.4 cor month2-3-4 : ( 129 scop November starts 1987-2003)
-1
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.2
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1
Nino3.4 cor month2-3-4 : ( 139 scop November starts 1987-2003)
-1
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.2
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1
Nino3.4 cor month2-3-4 : ( 129 ukmo November starts 1987-2003)
-1
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.2
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1
Nino3.4 cor month2-3-4 : ( 034 ukmo November starts 1987-2003)
-1
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.2
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1
Met OfficeEcmwf
Era 40
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 39
DJF cor : (167(0-35E, 10N-30N) and 129 era40 1987-2003)
-1
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.2
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1
DJF cor : ( 167(0-35E, 10N-30N) and 139 er40 1987-2003)
-1
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.2
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1
Nino3.4 cor month2-3-4 : ( 129 ukmo November starts 1987-2003)
-1
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.2
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1
Nino3.4 cor month2-3-4 : ( 034 ukmo November starts 1987-2003)
-1
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.2
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1
Nino3.4 cor month2-3-4 : ( 129 scop November starts 1987-2003)
-1
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.2
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1
Nino3.4 cor month2-3-4 : ( 139 scop November starts 1987-2003)
-1
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.2
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1
Met OfficeEcmwf
Era 40
DJF Correlation between:2m temp over (0-35E,10-30N)SST (1987-2003)
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 41
Tropical Storms: Monthly ForecastProbability of a tropical storm within 1 degree
Day 10-32
TROPICAL STORM PROBABILTIY
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W
< 5% 5.. 10 10.. 15 15.. 20 20.. 25 25.. 30 30.. 40 40.. 50 50.. 80 > 80%
TROPICAL STORM PROBABILTIY
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W
< 5% 5.. 10 10.. 15 15.. 20 20.. 25 25.. 30 30.. 40 40.. 50 50.. 80 > 80%
Forecast starting on 4 August 2005
Model climatology starting on 4 July 1993-2004
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 46
Bias:( 165 epcr init. date 19870401 to 2002 m2-4)
-10
-6
-4
-2
-1
-0.5
0.5
1
2
4
6
10
Bias:( 165 ekrm init. date 19870401 to 2001 m2-4)
-10
-6
-4
-2
-1
-0.5
0.5
1
2
4
6
10
Bias: ( 165 sco5 init. date 19870401 to 2001 m2-4)
-10
-6
-4
-2
-1
-0.5
0.5
1
2
4
6
10
System 3 experimentati
on:10m zonal wind bias
Too weak easterlies
Oper. system MJJ (1987-2003) m 2-4
Cy 29r1
Cy 29r3