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USFWS Migratory Bird Program James R. Kelley Mississippi Flyway Representative.

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USFWS Migratory Bird Program James R. Kelley Mississippi Flyway Representative
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Page 1: USFWS Migratory Bird Program James R. Kelley Mississippi Flyway Representative.

USFWS Migratory Bird Program

James R. Kelley

Mississippi Flyway Representative

Page 2: USFWS Migratory Bird Program James R. Kelley Mississippi Flyway Representative.

Canvasback Harvest Strategy:Canvasback Harvest Strategy:Update for the 2008-09 SeasonUpdate for the 2008-09 Season

Page 3: USFWS Migratory Bird Program James R. Kelley Mississippi Flyway Representative.

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

Canvasback

Year

Millio

ns

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Page 4: USFWS Migratory Bird Program James R. Kelley Mississippi Flyway Representative.

Strategy componentsStrategy components

1)1) One continental populationOne continental population

2)2) Spring population objective Spring population objective ≥ ≥ 500,000500,000

3)3) Model of population dynamics…….. Model of population dynamics……..

Page 5: USFWS Migratory Bird Program James R. Kelley Mississippi Flyway Representative.

Canvasback population model:

Number of canvasbacks next May =

(Number this May × Summer survival

+ Number of Juveniles in Fall

− Number killed in fall)

× Winter survival

Page 6: USFWS Migratory Bird Program James R. Kelley Mississippi Flyway Representative.

Fall Age RatioFall Age Ratio

Year

Age ratio (immature/adult)

O = Estimated from harvest dataP = Predicted from pond model

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

P P

P P

P

P

PP

P

P

P

PP

P

P

O

O

OO

OO

O

O O O

O

O

O

*

Preliminary estimateU.S. harvest data

Page 7: USFWS Migratory Bird Program James R. Kelley Mississippi Flyway Representative.

Spring AbundanceSpring Abundance

Year

Canvasbacks(1000s)

O = Estimated from survey dataP = Predicted from canvasback modelC,R,L,2 = 2009 model predictions for closed, restricted, liberal & 2-bird seasons

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

0

200

400

600

800

1000

P

P

P

P

P

P

P P

P

P PP

P

P

O

OO

O O O O

OO

OO

O

O

O

OC

R

L2

Page 8: USFWS Migratory Bird Program James R. Kelley Mississippi Flyway Representative.

2008-09 Harvest Season Recommendation2008-09 Harvest Season Recommendation

1)1) Canvasback strategy calculates an allowable harvest Canvasback strategy calculates an allowable harvest

of only 24,700 birds for the 2008-09 hunting season.of only 24,700 birds for the 2008-09 hunting season.

2)2) The predicted harvest under a restricted AHM The predicted harvest under a restricted AHM

season is 61,758 canvasbacks in the U.S.season is 61,758 canvasbacks in the U.S.

3)3) The harvest strategy indicates a closed season for The harvest strategy indicates a closed season for

canvasbacks this year.canvasbacks this year.

4)4) Under a closed season, the model predicts 537,519 Under a closed season, the model predicts 537,519

canvasbacks in spring 2009.canvasbacks in spring 2009.

Page 9: USFWS Migratory Bird Program James R. Kelley Mississippi Flyway Representative.

• 2008 estimates of canvasback breeding population 2008 estimates of canvasback breeding population lowest since 2002; second lowest in last 15 years.lowest since 2002; second lowest in last 15 years.

• Canadian pond estimates are also low. Canadian pond estimates are also low.

• Preliminary harvest estimates for 2007 near model’s Preliminary harvest estimates for 2007 near model’s harvest prediction for a 2-bird bag.harvest prediction for a 2-bird bag.

• 2007 model prediction failed by substantially 2007 model prediction failed by substantially overestimating 2008 breeding population.overestimating 2008 breeding population.

• Overestimate likely due in part to overestimation of Overestimate likely due in part to overestimation of the age ratio.the age ratio.

• FWS is committed to model and harvest strategy FWS is committed to model and harvest strategy improvements, as competing priorities allow.improvements, as competing priorities allow.

Page 10: USFWS Migratory Bird Program James R. Kelley Mississippi Flyway Representative.
Page 11: USFWS Migratory Bird Program James R. Kelley Mississippi Flyway Representative.

G. Scott Boomer U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Progress towards an assessment and decision making framework to inform

scaup harvest management

Page 12: USFWS Migratory Bird Program James R. Kelley Mississippi Flyway Representative.

34

56

78

9

Scaup

Year

Mill

ion

s

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Page 13: USFWS Migratory Bird Program James R. Kelley Mississippi Flyway Representative.

Scaup Estimates

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

01

23

45

6

Year

Pop

ulat

ion

in M

illio

ns

Boreal ForestPrairie-ParklandTundra

Scaup Breeding Population Estimates (1955 - 2005)

Page 14: USFWS Migratory Bird Program James R. Kelley Mississippi Flyway Representative.
Page 15: USFWS Migratory Bird Program James R. Kelley Mississippi Flyway Representative.
Page 16: USFWS Migratory Bird Program James R. Kelley Mississippi Flyway Representative.

Proposed Methodology to determine scaup regulatory alternatives

Derive policy

Predict future state

Harvest ~ f (Historical Regulations)

Harvest

Update

population

parameters

Monitor

BPOP & Harvest

Page 17: USFWS Migratory Bird Program James R. Kelley Mississippi Flyway Representative.

.))/1((1111t

teHKNrNNNtttt

N = population size

r = intrinsic rate of increase

K = carrying capacity

H = harvest

e = process error

Page 18: USFWS Migratory Bird Program James R. Kelley Mississippi Flyway Representative.
Page 19: USFWS Migratory Bird Program James R. Kelley Mississippi Flyway Representative.

Assessing the Harvest Potential of Wood Ducks in Eastern North America

Page 20: USFWS Migratory Bird Program James R. Kelley Mississippi Flyway Representative.
Page 21: USFWS Migratory Bird Program James R. Kelley Mississippi Flyway Representative.
Page 22: USFWS Migratory Bird Program James R. Kelley Mississippi Flyway Representative.
Page 23: USFWS Migratory Bird Program James R. Kelley Mississippi Flyway Representative.

25

30

35

40

45

Total ducks

Year

Mill

ion

s

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Page 24: USFWS Migratory Bird Program James R. Kelley Mississippi Flyway Representative.

Year

Nu

mb

er

of P

on

ds

(in

Mill

ion

s)

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

02

46

81

0

Prairie CanadaNorthcentral USTotal


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