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Using Artificial Neural Network Model to Assess the Expected Cost of Quality (COQ) in Construction...

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method to predict the accurate cost of quality using ANN modelling.
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CONTENTS ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................. 2 CHAPTER 1 ............................................................................................................................. 3 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................... 3 1.1 GENERAL ....................................................................................................................... 3 1.2 OBJECTIVE .................................................................................................................... 4 CHAPTER 2 ............................................................................................................................. 5 LITERATURE REVIEW ....................................................................................................... 5 CHAPTER 4 ............................................................................................................................. 8 METHODOLOGY .................................................................................................................. 8 CHAPTER 4 ........................................................................................................................... 11 CONCLUSION ...................................................................................................................... 11 REFERENCES....................................................................................................................... 12
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Page 1: Using Artificial Neural Network Model to Assess the Expected Cost of Quality (COQ) in Construction Projects

CONTENTS

ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................. 2

CHAPTER 1 ............................................................................................................................. 3

INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................... 3

1.1 GENERAL ....................................................................................................................... 3

1.2 OBJECTIVE .................................................................................................................... 4

CHAPTER 2 ............................................................................................................................. 5

LITERATURE REVIEW ....................................................................................................... 5

CHAPTER 4 ............................................................................................................................. 8

METHODOLOGY .................................................................................................................. 8

CHAPTER 4 ........................................................................................................................... 11

CONCLUSION ...................................................................................................................... 11

REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................... 12

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MES College Of Engineering 2 Department of Civil Engineering

ABSTRACT

Cost of quality is an essential element of the total cost of any construction project.

Consequently, the accurate assessment of such cost of quality can materially affect the

reliability of the estimated cost of any construction project. Stated differently, the accurate and

reliable cost estimating for any construction projects is not really possible without the deep

investigation for the expected cost of quality of this project. Cost of quality is generally affected

by many factors. Any attempt to assess the cost of quality of any project should take the

different cost of quality factors into consideration.

In this paper various factors that contribute to cost of quality are determined through primary

and secondary survey. These factors are weighted and ranked on the basis of their priority.

Then these factors are used to create a neural network model that will enable the assessment of

cost of quality for any future building project. This will improve a construction firm’s

performance and its ability to compete with other companies by improving the price of their

buildings. The ‘‘Neural Connection” software package will be used to generate the proposed

model. The main factors affecting the expected cost of quality will be clearly identified. The

different sequences of the model development will be deeply investigated. Moreover, the

validity of the proposed model will be evaluated using a number of case study applications.

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MES College Of Engineering 3 Department of Civil Engineering

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 GENERAL

Cost of quality is the cost associated with preventing, finding, and correcting defective work.

These costs are huge, running at 20% - 40% of sales. Many of these costs can be significantly

reduced or completely avoided. One of the key functions of a Quality Engineer is the reduction

of the total cost of quality associated with a product.

There are numerous definitions on quality cost or cost of quality based on prevention, appraisal

and failure costs. Prevention costs are associated with actions taken to ensure that a process

provides quality products and services, appraisal costs are associated with measuring the level

of quality attained by the process and failure costs are incurred to correct quality in products

and services before (internal) and after (external) delivery to the customer. The concept of cost

of quality originated in manufacturing settings, in the 1950s, as a means of justifying staff

functions responsible for quality management. A number of organizations are now seeking

both theoretical advice and practice evidence about cost of quality and the implementation of

quality costing system. In the time, cost, quality trade off analysis for construction project, the

objective is to construct projects using computer simulation and interactive procedure (Shankar

et al, 2011).

COQ is usually understood as the sum of conformance plus non-conformance costs, where cost

of conformance is the price paid for prevention of poor quality, and cost of non-conformance

is the cost of poor quality caused by product and service failure. These COQ can be also broken

down into the three categories:

Prevention cost: the cost of any action taken to investigate, prevent or reduce the risk

of nonconformity.

Appraisal cost: the cost of evaluating the achievement of quality requirements.

Failure Cost: There are sub classified in to 2:

o Internal failure cost: the costs arising within an organization due to

nonconformities or defects at any stage of the quality loop.

o External failure cost: the cost arising after delivery to a customer/user due to

nonconformities or defects which may include the cost of claims against

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MES College Of Engineering 4 Department of Civil Engineering

warranty, replacement and consequential losses and evaluation of penalties

incurred.

Cost of quality is an essential element of the total cost of any construction project. Cost of

quality is generally affected by many factors, such as planned COQ for the project, awareness

of quality for project team, supervision team experience, labour skills, suppliers, design errors,

defected material, plan of improving quality, external factors, accident, equipment down time

and project duration.

1.2 OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to identify the most important factors affecting cost of quality

and to develop an Artificial Neural Network model that can help cost estimator to arrive at a

more reliable assessment for the expected cost of quality of any building construction project.

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MES College Of Engineering 5 Department of Civil Engineering

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

COQ models were classified into five groups of generic models. These are: P-A-F model,

Crosby’s model, and opportunity cost models, process cost models and ABC (Activity Based

Costing) models. The following is a summary for the main literature concerning the cost of

quality topic:

1. G. Heravi et.al (2014) Cost of Quality Evaluation in Mass-Housing Projects in Developing

Countries

In this paper the quality related activities are categorised based on their relative importance.

The activities are grouped as preventive activities group, appraising activities group, internal

failure related activities group and external failure-related activities group.

In preventive activities group, root cause analysis of non-conformances and conducting

preventive actions weighted the highest. The first step in preventing the problems is to survey

them deeply, removing the problems and preventing them to reoccur. The next important

quality related activity was motivating the staff. Companies try to motivate the staff to improve

work quality by increasing salaries, for example. Design review and Drawings check was

ranked third under this group. Checking the plans and offering necessary changes before the

execution phase will prevent incompatibilities of operational plans with each other, which can

result in work stoppages until the plans get modified.

In appraising activities group, in process inspection and testing stood first in priority for quality

related activity. The first and most important activity that companies carry out to control and

examine a project is to inspect and ensure precision and accuracy during performance. Second

important factor was found to be Product inspection and testing. After the completion of the

execution phase, initial inspections may unearth some non-conformances during the

construction that the contractor is responsible for. Third important factor was Material

inspection and testing. Because reducing construction costs is the main goal of mass-housing

contractors, they are not interested in setting up an equipped laboratory in a construction site

and prefer to choose a trustworthy supplier for assuring the quality of the materials.

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MES College Of Engineering 6 Department of Civil Engineering

In internal failure related activities group, in process reworks and corrective actions was found

to be the most important quality activity. It is because remedying the non-conformances closer

to project delivery time would inflict more expenses on the company. Product repairs was the

next important activity. Postponing the elimination of defects until the end of the project would

impose higher costs on the project.

In external failure related activities group warranty works weighed highest. Every organization

inevitably tries to avoid anything that causes dissatisfaction for the client or the beneficiary

because it may lead to notoriety for future projects. Customer complaints is the next important

quality activity that is to be considered. The reason the construction companies and

organizations try to avoid legal claims is that such legal entanglements not only can easily

impair their reputation but may also impose high costs on the organization.

2. K. N. Jha et.al. (2006) Critical Factors Affecting Quality Performance in Construction

Projects.

The factors that adversely affected the quality performances of projects were: conflict among

project participants; hostile socio-economic environment; harsh climatic condition; PM’s

ignorance & lack of knowledge; faulty project conceptualization; and aggressive competition

during tendering. Analyses also led to the conclusion that the extent of contribution of various

success factors varies with the current performance ratings of the project. Project manager’s

competence and top management support are found to contribute significantly in enhancing the

quality performance of a construction project.

3. V.V. Waje et.al. (2010) Cost of poor Quality in Construction

Stated that poor quality resulting from non-conformance during construction leads to extra cost

and time to all members of the project team. The costs of rectifying non-conformance can be

high and they can affect a firm’s profit margin and its competitiveness. Construction related

firms can identify non-conformance information by employing a quality cost matrix as

illustrated in a case study as a basis for improvement.

Also defines the categories of COQ.

Failure cost. They are of two types:

o Internal Failure Cost: Internal failure cost is a cost that would disappear if no

defects existed prior to handover to the customer. These costs include rework,

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MES College Of Engineering 7 Department of Civil Engineering

scrap, re-inspection, re-testing, corrective action, redesign, material review,

material downgrades, vendor defects, and other like defects.

o External Failure cost: External failure cost is a cost that would disappear if no

defects existed in the product after shipment to the customer. These costs

include processing customer complaints, customer returns, warranty claims and

repair costs, product liability and product recalls.

Appraisal Cost: The costs incurred while performing measuring, evaluating, or auditing

to assure the quality conformance. These costs include first time inspection, checking,

testing, process or service audits, calibration of measuring and test equipment, supplier

surveillance, receipt inspection etc.

Prevention Cost: The costs related to all activities to prevent defects from occurring and

to keep appraisal and failure to a minimum. These costs include new product review,

quality planning, supplier surveys, process reviews, quality improvement teams,

education and training and other like costs.

4. Rosenfeld (2009) Cost of quality versus cost of non-quality in construction

Compare cost of quality versus cost of non-quality in construction. The methodology is based

on quantifying the four types of quality-related costs in residential construction, and relates

them to each other by expressing them all as percentages of the relevant total construction

revenues.

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MES College Of Engineering 8 Department of Civil Engineering

CHAPTER 4

METHODOLOGY

The first step is to identify the objective. The objective is to identify various factors that

contribute to cost of quality in a construction project. A questionnaire is prepared using these

factors. The questionnaire is distributed among builders of apartment/villa projects. The

response is tabulated and RII value of each factor is found. These factors are then weighted

and ranked on the basis of their priority. Then these factors are used to create a neural network

model that will enable the assessment of cost of quality for any future building project.

Data collection is be collected from both primary and secondary sources. Primary data on cost

of quality are obtained through the use of well-structured questionnaires administered to

owners and builders of selected private buildings. Data obtained from this source formed the

basis of this study. Secondary data were obtained through review of various relevant literatures.

The consistency and stability of response from respondents are evaluated using a

reliability test such as the Cronbach’s alpha method.

o Cronbach alpha or simply the alpha is calculated as follows:

Let X be an n×k matrix of the quantified answers of a questionnaire.

Each row of X represents a subject and each column a question. The

quantified answers may be in any scale (e.g. 0–1, 1–5, 0–100, etc.). The

Cronbach’s alpha coefficient is measured in the following way:

α= 𝑘

𝑘−1∗ [(σ2

τ -Σ σ2i )/ σ

2τ )]

o where, σ2i is the variance of each column of X,

o σ2τ the variance of the sum of each row of X,

o k the number of respondents, should be greater than 1 in

order to have non-zero denominator

Alternatively Cronbach’s alpha can be calculated using SPSS statistical package or MS

Excel installed with real statistics package.

Reliability of the data is considered at low level when cronbach alpha is less than 0.3

which means the data is not reliable and cannot be adopted. Reliability is at high level

when cronbach alpha is more than 0.7 (Wong and Cheung (2005).

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MES College Of Engineering 9 Department of Civil Engineering

Once the data is found to be reliable, the factors leading to delay and cost overrun are

ranked on the basis of Relative Identity Index or simply RII.

o RII is calculated as follows:

Relative Importance index (RII) calculation was used to determine

relative significance and ranking of cost and time overrun factors.

RII (%)=Σa/(𝐴 ∗𝑁) ∗ 100

Where,

o RII= Relative importance index

o a= weighting given to each factor by respondent and it

ranges from 0 to 4

o A= highest response

o N= total number of participants

The ranking is done using SPSS statistical package.

Neural connections software by IBM is used to develop a neural network that will create the

proposed model. Artificial Neural Networks is use as a modelling tool that can enhance current

automation efforts in the construction industry. The structure of the neural network model

includes an input layer that receive input from the outside world, hidden layers that serve the

purpose of creating an internal representation of the problem, and an output layer, or the

solution of the problem. Before solving a problem, neural networks must be ‘‘trained’’.

Networks are trained as they examine a smaller portion of the dataset just as they would a

normal-sized dataset. Through this training, a network learns the relationships between the

variables and establishes the weights between the nodes. Once this learning occurs, a new case

can be entered into the network resulting in solutions that offer more accurate prediction or

classification of the case.

The steps for the design of ANN model will be illustrated to predict the percentage of the

expected cost of quality for building construction projects. All factors that have an effect on

the expected cost of quality of the building construction projects are identified. These factors

are considered as the input variables for the proposed neural network model, while the expected

cost of quality as a percentage from the total projects contract value is considered as the output

variable of this model.

Neural network models are generally developed through the following six basic steps:

Page 10: Using Artificial Neural Network Model to Assess the Expected Cost of Quality (COQ) in Construction Projects

MES College Of Engineering 10 Department of Civil Engineering

Identify the problem, decide what information to be used and what will the network do;

Come to a decision of how to gather the information and symbolize it;

Define the network, select network inputs and identify the expected outputs;

Structure the network;

Train the network;

And analyse the trained network.

This engages addressing novel inputs to the network and evaluates the network’s results with

the authentic life results.

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MES College Of Engineering 11 Department of Civil Engineering

CHAPTER 4

CONCLUSION

All the way through the literature review, potential factors that control the percentage of cost

of quality for building construction projects are recognized. The factors are then checked for

reliability and finally a neural network model is to be created for accurately assessing the cost

of construction including the cost of quality.

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MES College Of Engineering 12 Department of Civil Engineering

REFERENCES

1. A. Jafari and G. Heravi (2014)- Cost of Quality Evaluation in Mass-Housing Projects

in Developing Countries, ASCE, 140(5): 04014004, pp: 1-9.

2. K. N. Jha and K. C. Iyer(2006)-Critical Factors Affecting Quality Performance in

Construction Projects, TANDF, Vol. 17, No. 9,pp: 1155–1170.

3. V.V. Waje and Vishal Patil (2010)-Cost of poor Quality in Construction, IOSR Journal

of Mechanical and Civil Engineering (IOSR-JMCE), ISSN: 2278-1684, PP: 16-22.

4. N. Ravi Shankar, M. M. K. Raju, G. Srikanth and P. Hima Bindu (2011)- Time, Cost

and Quality Trade-off Analysis in Construction of Projects, Contemporary Engineering

Sciences, Vol. 4, no. 6, pp.: 289 – 299.

5. Rui Alexandre Sampaio and Reis Almeida (2011)- Evaluation and modelling of the

costs of non-quality in the Portuguese construction industry, University of Lisboa,

pp.:1-11.

6. Philip Barlow (2009) - Cost of Quality in the Construction Industry, California

Polytechnic State University.

7. Arthur B. Jeffery (2003) - Managing Quality: Modeling the Cost of Quality

Improvement, Southwest Business and Economics Journal, pp.: 25-36.

8. Y. Rosenfeld (2009)-Cost of quality versus cost of non-quality in construction,

TANDFonline, Construction engineering and economics, pp.: 107-117.

9. Carlos Gershenson, Artificial Neural Networks for Beginners, Sussex, pp.:1-8.

10. William Kruskal (1984), Concepts of Relative Importance, University of Chicago,

Vol.8, pp.: 39-45.


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