Using CEM Data:Target Setting, Monitoring &
Reporting
Belfast, March 6th 2013Neil Defty
Business & Development ManagerCEM
Which Baseline to use?
Student 1
Student 2
Student 3
Student 3 - IPR
Key Questions for Target Setting
• What type of valid and reliable predictive data should be used to set the targets?
• Should students be involved as part of the process (ownership, empowerment etc.)?
• Should parents be informed of the process and outcome?
Key points to consider might include:
• Where has the data come from?• What (reliable and relevant) data should we
use?• Enabling colleagues to trust the data: Training
(staff)• Communication with parents and students• Challenging, NOT demoralising, students….• Storage and retrieval of data• Consistency of understanding what the data
means and does not mean
Value Added: The theory and Stats bits…
20
40
60
80
100
120
Subject X
Out
com
e
.
Trend Line/Regression Line
Measuring Value Added – Terminology
BASELINE SCORE
-ve VA+ve VA
Residuals
VA
Exa
m g
rade
Measuring Value Added – An Example
Low Ability Average Ability
High Ability
Baseline Score
A*
U
B
C
D
E
F
G
Res
ult Aldwulf Beowulf
Cuthbert+ve (+ 2 grades)
-ve (- 2 grades)
National Trend
‘Average’ Student
The position of the national trend line is of critical importance
Subject A
Subject B
5 6 7 840
60
80
100
120
140
PhotographySociologyEnglish LitPsychologyMathsPhysicsLatin
Average GCSE
Gra
de
Some Subjects are More Equal than Others….A-Level
>1 grade
A*ABC
A
A*
B
C
D
E
Burning Question :
What is my Value Added Score ?
Better Question :
Is it Important ?
Value Added ChartsPre 16
Performance in line with expectation
VA Score
Performance below expectationProblem with Teaching & Learning?
Performance above expectationGood Practice to Share?
Which Subjects Cause Most Concern?
Danger of Relying on Raw Residuals Without Confidence Limits
Additional A
pplied Science
Additional S
cience
Art &
Design
Biology
Business S
tudies
Chem
istry
Design &
Technology
Dram
a
English
English Literature
French
Geography
Germ
an
History
Mathem
atics
Music
Physical E
ducation
Physics
Religious S
tudies
Science
Spanish
Short C
ourse Religious S
tudies
-4-3-2-101234
0.00.8 0.5
-0.3
1.1
-0.4
1.00.2 0.4 0.1 0.1
0.0
0.0 0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.3
0.2 0.5
-0.3
0.70.2
-2.9
0.0
Average Standardised Residuals by Subject
Aver
age
Stan
dard
ised
Res
idua
l
Which subjects now cause most concern ?
Business Studies
Religious Studies
Value Added ChartsPost 16
SPC Chart
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
Performance in line with expectation
VA Score
Performance below expectationProblem with Teaching & Learning?
Performance above expectationGood Practice to Share?
Subject Summary - 3 Year Average
Subject Summary - Current Year
-0.60-0.48-0.36-0.24-0.120.000.120.240.360.480.60
2002 2003 2004
Aver
age S
tanda
rdise
d Res
idual
Year
-0.60-0.48-0.36-0.24-0.120.000.120.240.360.480.60
A2-English Literature
Statistical Process Control (SPC) Chart
2008 2009 2010Year
Student Level Residuals (SLR) Report
Scatter Plot
A2 – English Literature
General Underachievement?
Student Level Residuals (SLR) Report
Scatter Plot
A2 – English Literature
Too many U’s?
Other things to look for…
Why did these students do so badly?
Why did this student do so well?
How did they do in their other subjects?
Summary of Process
• Examine Subject Summary• Determine ‘interesting’ (i.e. statistically significant) subjects• Look at 3 year average as well as single year if available• Look at trends in ‘Interesting Subjects’• Examine student data – Scatter graphs• Identify students over / under achieving• Any known issues?• Don’t forget to look at over achieving subjects as well as under
achieving
Baseline Choice
• Do students with the same GCSE score from feeder schools with differing value-added have the same ability?
• How can you tell if a student has underachieved at GCSE and thus can you maximise their potential?
• Has a student got very good GCSE scores through the school effort rather than their ability alone?
• Does school GCSE Value-Added limit the ability to add value at KS5?
• Can you add value at every Key Stage?
GCSE or Baseline Test?
The Effect of Prior Value Added
Beyond Expectation+ve Value-Added
In line with Expectation0 Value-Added
Below Expectation-ve Value-Added
Average GCSE = 6 Average GCSE = 6 Average GCSE = 6
Do these 3 students all have the same ability?
Same School - Spot the Difference ?
GCSE as Baseline
Test as Baseline
National or School Type Specific?
Comparison to all schools
Comparison to Independent Schools Only
Comparison to all schools
Comparison to FE Colleges Only
Questions:
→ How does the unit of comparison used affect the Value Added data and what implications does this have on your understanding of performance?
→ Does this have implications for Self Evaluation?
Definitions:• Residual – difference between the points the student attains and
points attained on average by students from the CEM cohort with a similar ability
• Standardised Residual – the residual adjusted to remove differences between qualification points scales and for statistical purposes
• Average Standardised Residual – this is the ‘Value Added Score’ for any group of results
• Subject VA – average of standardised residuals for all students’ results in the particular subject
• School VA – average of standardised residuals for all students’ results in all subjects for a school / college
• Confidence Limit – area of statistical uncertainty within which any variation from 0 is deemed ‘acceptable’ and outside of which could be deemed ‘important’