School of something FACULTY OF OTHER School of Geography FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT Using e-Research Tools for Micro-Level Social Simulation Nick Malleson University of Leeds
Transcript
1. School of Geography
FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
Using e-Research Tools for Micro-Level Social Simulation
Nick Malleson
University of Leeds
2. Outline
Introduction to micro-level social simulation
Complexity / emergence
3. Microsimulation
4. Agent-based modelling
Population reconstruction and projection
The NeISS project
Crime simulation
Other work
Conclusion
5. Prediction: Emergence
The Need for Individual-Level Models (ILMs)
Individual-level models provide a natural description of the
system
Emergence
Patterns at one level arising from lower level effects
Simple rules -> complex patterns
Not intended by the individuals
Examples from human systems?
6. Individual Level Models (ILMs)
Model from the bottom-up
Natural description of the system under study
Range of ILM methodologies
Microsimulation
Rule based systems
7. Retain diversity / uniqueness
Agent-Based Models (ABMs)
Agents are unique entities in the model capable of self control
and decision making
8. Strong emphasis on individual behaviour / psychology