© Kantar Worldpanel

Using Food Purchasing Data For

Population Level Surveillance

Giles Quick – Kantar Worldpanel

© Kantar Worldpanel

fats

energy (kJ, kcal)

carbohydrates

protein

sugars

saturates fibre

salt

SINCE 2005 NUTRITIONAL VALUES COMBINED WITH PURCHASE

VOLUME TO PROVIDE NUTRIENT VOLUMES, TRENDS AND SOURCE

© Kantar Worldpanel

HAS CHANGED

© Kantar Worldpanel

30,000

31,000

32,000

33,000

34,000

35,000

36,000

Feb-0

7

May

-07

Aug

-07

Nov

-07

Feb-0

8

May

-08

Aug

-08

Nov

-08

Feb-0

9

May

-09

Aug

-09

Nov

-09

Feb-1

0

May

-10

Aug

-10

Nov

-10

Feb-1

1

Millions of servings of food chosen for health

In Home Consumption

12 m/e

HEALTH AND THE RECESSION

HEALTHY CHOICES CORRELATED WITH CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

© Kantar Worldpanel

Worldpanel Nutrition Total Food & Drink: Take Home Purchasing

52 w/e 26 Dec 2010

0.5

3.5

1.4

1.8

2.8

3.2

3.6

2.5

2.7

3.1

2.8

9.1

1.1

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

Hholds

Spend

Volume (Nut)

Packs

Energy

Protein

Fibre

Carbohydrate

Sugars

Fat

Saturates

Sodium

Sodium excl

SALT GROWTH BEHIND OVERALL GROCERY VOLUMES NUTRITIONAL VALUES: YEAR ON YEAR % CHANGE

% YEAR ON YEAR CHANGE

© Kantar Worldpanel

Worldpanel Nutrition Total Food & Drink: Take Home Purchasing

52 w/e 26 Dec 2010

SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN SALT (EXCLUDING TABLE SALT) OVER

LAST FEW YEARS BUT NOW SLOWING Based on Take Home purchasing of Food & Drink

50,000,000

52,000,000

54,000,000

56,000,000

58,000,000

60,000,000

62,000,000

64,000,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Sodium exc Table SaltKgs

Kg’s

Kantar Worldpanel Nutritional purchasing

© Kantar Worldpanel

Worldpanel Nutrition Total Food & Drink: Take Home Purchasing

52 w/e 26 Dec 2010

24.1

11.9

8

7.1

6.7

5.9

4.5

4.5

4.1

3.9

3.8

3.4

3.3

3.1

2.7

2.6

2.21.5

Salt

Dairy Products

Bread

Savoury Home Cking excFresh Meat

Total Frozen

Morning GoodsCanned Goods

Chilled Convenience exc RM

Total Milk

Frozen Prepared FoodsTable Sauce+Condiment

Yellow Fats

Total CheeseBiscuits

Take Home Savouries

Breakfast Cereals

Chilled Ready Meals

52 w/e 27 Dec 09

52 w/e 26 Dec 10

THE SIGNIFICANT GROWTH IN TABLE SALT PURCHASING (BAD

WEATHER INFLUENCED) REDUCING THE CONTRIBUTION OF OTHER

CATEGORIES SUCH AS DAIRY AND BREAD

© Kantar Worldpanel

CAN CHANGE

© Kantar Worldpanel

0.19g 0.90g

0.44g

WRAPPED BREAD CHOICE EXISTS

THE CHALLENGE IS TO DRIVE

SUFFICIENT CONSUMER CONCERN &

ACTION

SALT CONTENT PER 100g

21%

79%

Reduced salt over 4 years

© Kantar Worldpanel

0.1g 9.0g

2.2g

SATURATED FAT CONTENT PER 100g

27%

73%

Reduced sat. fat over 4 years

CHILLED READY MEALS - EVEN MORE CHOICE EXISTS

THE CHALLENGE IS TO DRIVE SUFFICIENT CONSUMER CONCERN & ACTION

© Kantar Worldpanel

39

13.9

9.9

8.3

8.3

8.2

6.5

4.3

3.9

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.3

2

1.9

1.81.4

Dairy Products

Yellow Fats

Total Cheese

Total Milk

Fresh Meat

Biscuits

Take Home Confectionery

Ambient Cakes+Pastries

Chilled Convenience exc RM

Frozen Confectionery

Frozen Prepared Foods

Other Dairy

Savoury Home Cooking

Morning Goods

Hens Eggs

Take Home Savouries

Chilled Ready Meals

52 w/e 27 Dec 09

52 w/e 26 Dec 10

DAIRY CONTRIBUTING FOR 1/3RD OF ALL SATURATES BOUGHT SATURATES: % OF CATEGORIES

© Kantar Worldpanel

SALT PURCHASE RELATIVELY UNDER PROMOTED – BUT SAT

FATS ARE AHEAD OF OVERALL GROCERY PROMOTED LEVELS

Total Food & Drink: Take Home Purchasing

52 w/e 31 October 2010

% Nutrients sold on Promotion

35

36

35 35 35 35

34

31

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

Total SalesSaturates

Energy Fibre

CarbsSugars

Protein Sodium

% o

n p

rom

otio

n

© Kantar Worldpanel

CROSS CATEGORY SWITCHING IS HARD TO DRIVE

1%

55% Out of home consumption source KWP Usage

© Kantar Worldpanel

104.5

102.2

100.9

96.4 96

Sodium Saturates Calories Fibre Achievement

of 5-a-day

A LESS AFFLUENT NUTRITIONAL UNDERCLASS EXISTS DE social class indexed Take Home purchasing of Food & Drink Yr to Dec 2010 on total GB

© Kantar Worldpanel

WILL CHANGE

© Kantar Worldpanel

MANUFACTURERS HAVE RESPONDED POSITIVELY

REFORMULATION ACTIVITY IN UK BREAKFAST CEREALS MARKET

Based on Breakfast Cereals skus sold in the 3 months to Dec 2010

50% of current Breakfast

Cereals SKU’s have reduced sodium levels between Dec 2006 and 2010

© Kantar Worldpanel

-14.8

-8.6

-6.3

-4.6

-4.4

-3.2

-2.9

-2.2

-2.1

Breakfast Cereals

Cheese

Chilled Ready Meals

Table Sauces &Condiments

Canned Goods

Chilled Conv exc RM

Bread

Savoury Home Cooking

Savouries CSNs

MANY CATEGORIES SHOWING SALT DECLINES VIA

REFORMULATION/ MIX

Take Home purchasing Yr to Dec 2010 vs 2008: % chg in Sodium excluding market growth

Kantar Worldpanel Nutritional purchasing

Based on Salt 2 year volume % chg mix/ reformulation only

© Kantar Worldpanel

REFORMULATION WORKS!

Two thirds

Of change is typically driven from

reformulation rather than

consumer switching

Salt reduction

© Kantar Worldpanel

WIN ,WIN

IDENTIFY AND INNOVATE

Worse for customers (*wellbeing)

Better for manufacturer £

Better for customers (wellbeing)

Worse for manufacturer £

GOVERNMENT PUSH

RESPOND

AT AFFORDABLE COST

LOSE, LOSE

DIVEST, REFORMULATE OR

COMMERCIAL TURNROUND

NO HEALTH ROLE

IDENTIFY ROLE IN

DIET

© Kantar Worldpanel

Largest 100 Food and Drink Markets: Healthier (Top 20%) vs The Rest (80%) per category, based on nutrient profiling scores

Take Home purchasing Yr on Yr %Spend Change 52w/e 23 Jan 11

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50

Healthier %change

Re

st o

f m

arke

t %

chan

ge

Healthy declines

Chilled Juice/Drinks,

Ethnic Ingredients, Frozen Pizza,

Baked Beans, Cheese, Breakfast

Cereals, Ambient Cakes

ONLY HALF (55%) OF THE TOP 100 FOOD AND DRINK MARKETS

HAVE FASTER GROWTH THAN AVERAGE FOR THE HEALTHIEST 20%

Healthy growth

Chilled and Frozen Ready Meals

Canned Veg, Fresh Sausages,

Yogurt Drinks, Biscuits Bars

Bread

© Kantar Worldpanel

CHILLED READY MEALS IS ONE MARKET WHERE HEALTH(IER)

LINES ARE PERFORMING WELL Based on Chilled Ready Meals Healthier (Top 20%) vs The Rest (80%) per category based on nutrient profiling scores

Take Home purchasing Yr on Yr %Spend Change 52w/e 23 Jan 11

5.2

24.5

8.4

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

The Rest (80%)

Healthiest (20%)

Total Market

% SPEND CHANGE

© Kantar Worldpanel

HAS CHANGED CAN CHANGE WILL CHANGE

Changing cross

category habits is difficult

& slow but an important

long term ambition

Wide intra-category

nutritional choice exists

but consumer

awareness may

be an issue

Reformulation is a major

means to positive

nutritional change

& in the UK is the

major driver of success

over the past 4 years.

Healthy choices are

moving up

consumer’s agenda

– but choice is correlated

with confidence