Date post: | 15-May-2015 |
Category: |
Business |
Upload: | frederic-de-meyer |
View: | 19,457 times |
Download: | 2 times |
How megatrends are affecting the pharma
industry, and how the CI function can use
megatrends to increase its strategic relevance
Frederic De Meyer
Senior CI Investigator
I.S.I.S. – Integrated Strategic Information Services, Inc. – www.isisglobal.com
Office Switzerland: +41.41.455.2522
www.isisglobal.com
Aim of this presentation
Raising awareness of the multitude of trends affecting the pharma business, either directly or indirectly
Learn how to use these insights to increase the CI function to the highest strategic level within your company
www.isisglobal.com
let’s start with a challenge:
what do these have in common?
www.isisglobal.com
here’s a hint…
Ford almost got out of
business in the early
1900’s for sticking to it
standardized products
In 2002 Barbie lost its
market predominance
to a new competitor
who just entered this
market the year
before
Until 2006 Coca Cola
was boycotted
multiple times in India
due to its water
mismanagement
practices
GM’s Hummer saw
sales drop 85% from
2006 to 2009
www.isisglobal.com
sometimes long-term shifts can
have short-term consequences!
www.isisglobal.com
one hurricane is not a trend, it’s an event...
an increasing number of hurricanes in the US
is a trend, not necessarily a megatrend
before we start… what are megatrends
exactly?
a worldwide increase in number and intensity of
hurricanes would be a megatrend
and the consequences might trigger new
(mega)trends
www.isisglobal.com
Outline
• …a brain teaser as a starter
• Long-term trends affecting the pharma industry in the coming decade • The most obvious ones…
• Trends currently forming, outcome uncertain
• Some speculation…
• How to use these insights to increase the strategic relevancy of the CI function in your company • Setting up a megatrend exercise within your company
• Using megatrends to assess your competitive positioning for the long run
www.isisglobal.com
we currently track +40 megatrends closely
DEMOGRAPHIC
• aging population • increasing world population • genY/Milennials • urbanization/geographic mobility • multi-ethnic society • gap rich-poor
TECHNOLOGY
• ubiquitous computing • disintermediation • crowdsourcing • social Media • augmented Reality • SaaS, DIY • cloud Computing • 3D • enhanced humans
GEOPOLITICS
• power shift to East • globalization 3.0 • trade blocs and unions • rising middle class • the Market State
SUSTAINABILITY
• global warming • scarcity of resources • energy dependency • biodiversity • green technologies
BUSINESS TRENDS
• shared value (CSR) • social Entrepreneurship • social Business • open source/ innovation • decentralization • gamification • virtualization • disruptive business models
CONSUMER
• mass customization • radical transparency • social buying • sustainable/ethical buying
SOCIETY
• dematerialization (digitization) • talent shortage • boundary blurring • have’s and have not’s (digital divide)
www.isisglobal.com
…but not all of them are relevant for pharma
Trends with an obvious impact
• aging population • climate change • global mobility • new migration patterns • urbanization
Early signs of times to come?
• informed patients • customization • open source pharma • DIY health • shared value • health ‘as a service’
Somewhat more speculative…
• market State • enhanced humans (GRIN, genetic engineering, bioprinting, …)
www.isisglobal.com
…let’s start with the ones that we can clearly see, but from which the full extent is yet unknown
Trends with an obvious impact
• Aging population • Climate change • Global mobility • new migration patterns • urbanization
Somewhat more speculative…
• Market State • Enhanced humans
Early signs of times to come?
• informed patients • customization • open source pharma • DIY health • shared value • health ‘as a service’
www.isisglobal.com
the patient has limitless ways to be as
knowledgeable as the doctor
Do you have a direct touch with the ultimate patient?
www.isisglobal.com
(mass) Customization is the new paradigm
Is this potentially a new source of revenue?
www.isisglobal.com
Open source pharma challenges the current
business R&D model
Should you embrace or fight this new model?
www.isisglobal.com
Shared value and social entrepreneurship can
unleash new innovations
peripheral
Own initiative
Imposed by community
Core product
(Frederic De Meyer)
Comply (legislation,
standards, …)
Corporate foundations
Threat area
Social Entrepreneurs
Social Innovation
How to combine profitability with social responsibility?
Dynamics of changes vs social environment
www.isisglobal.com
New market for DIY health
(9000 Apple apps for personal health care)
is the doctor still your ‘route to market’?
www.isisglobal.com
The underlying transformation for Health Care
providers
reactive pro-active
community
institutions
(based on a chart from Across consultancy)
TRU
ST
ATTITUDE
How do you redefine your position in this new paradigm?
www.isisglobal.com
…some speculative trends and their consequences for pharma
Trends with an obvious impact
• Aging population • Climate change • Global mobility • new migration patterns • urbanization
Early signs of times to come?
• Informed patients • Customization • Open source pharma • DIY health • Shared value • Health ‘as a service’
Somewhat more speculative…
• Market State • Enhanced humans
www.isisglobal.com
The market state, an imperative or a delusion?
Will government become your key partner in the future?
www.isisglobal.com
Human enhancement as an alternative to
medicine?
Who will be your key partners in the future (technology, insurers, …)?
www.isisglobal.com
Are these trends applicable to Europe?
www.isisglobal.com
Outline
• …a brain teaser as a starter
• Long-term trends affecting the pharma industry in the coming decade • The most obvious ones…
• Trends currently forming, outcome uncertain
• Some speculation…
• How to use these insights to increase the strategic relevancy of the CI function in your company • Setting up a megatrend exercise within your company
• Using megatrends to assess your competitive positioning for the long run
www.isisglobal.com
Where tomorrow’s pharma innovation will
come from
• Aging population
• Global warming
• Urbanization
• New migration
• DIY Health
• Informed patients
• Open sourcing
• Shared value
• Customization
• Health ‘as a service’
• Market State
• Enhanced humans
• New ‘go-to-market’
• New markets
• New customers
• New partners
• New channels
• New ways of
influencing patients
• New vision/mission
• New organization
• New business model
• More efficient R&D
• More successful future
Do you take the lead or do you wait for disruptive models to emerge?
www.isisglobal.com
how the CI function could use megatrends
assessment to increase its impact on
business strategy
www.isisglobal.com
here’s a simple process to assess the impact of
megatrends on your company:
#2 discuss Megatrends
internally
#3 draw conclusions
and recommendations
#4 Communicate results
internally and externally
#1 identify
Megatrends to discuss
Mega trends
but the devil is in the detail…
www.isisglobal.com
guidelines for selecting trends to assess in your company
Mega trends
• don’t select (exclusively) trends with
an obvious impact on your industry
or company… the most successful
ideas for innovation will come from
elsewhere;
• get your ideas and selection from a
combination of internal (survey) and
external (consultants) input;
• generate 50 ideas for megatrends,
select 20 to discuss.
guidelines for discussing trends in your company
• Invite people with different
background, functions and seniority
• follow a discussion template -for
instance Osterwalder’s business
model canvas:
• 5-6 persons per theme, 30-60 min. per
trend;
• also look at anti-trends;
• keep it fun !
guidelines for drawing conclusions from the trends
discussions
• segment the trends so as to show
which ones need action or close
monitoring
• map the way megatrends impact your
customer segments and stakeholders
guidelines for communicating the conclusions of the
megatrends exercise
• Set up different documents dependent
on target group and aim:
Outline
• …a brain teaser as a starter
• Long-term trends affecting the pharma industry in the coming decade • The most obvious ones…
• Trends currently forming, outcome uncertain
• Some speculation…
• How to use these insights to increase the strategic relevancy of the CI function in your company • Setting up a megatrend exercise within your company
• Using megatrends to assess your competitive positioning for the long run
www.isisglobal.com
How to assess your long-term competitiveness
and short-term actions needed
1. List of 25 metrics that
indicate long-term
competitiveness (industry
dependent)
2. Weigh the topic in terms
of importance/relevance to the industry
3. Do a neutral benchmark
(1-5 scores) based on public sources and info
www.isisglobal.com
How to assess your long-term competitiveness
and short-term actions needed (cont.)
4. Draw conclusions, set recommendations
In this case:
1. Preparedness for geopolitical trends is currently your key
competitive differentiator. This needs to be kept!
2. Top performer overall has introduced key disruptive
business model and customer innovation. You
need to study which of these you can leverage profitably
for your business
www.isisglobal.com
Demographics
Sustainability
Consumers
Geopolitics
New Business models
Strategy
Future readiness benchmark company <YOU>
YOU
Top overall
performer
Average of 6
companies
Overall conclusion
• Investigating long-term trends has short-term relevance: » Ideas for innovation
» Find competitive differentiators
» Refine strategy for future success
• There is an easy, structured way to get the maximum
value out of a megatrend exercise;
• By taking the lead of this exercise, the CI function would
elevate its relevance in the strategic direction of the
company.
www.isisglobal.com
The future can not be predicted…
but it can be made ! (ancient African saying)
prepare your business now, and make sure CI has
the leading role in it!
Frederic De Meyer, Senior CI Investigator, I.S.I.S.- [email protected] Marc Limacher, Managing Director, I.S.I.S. – [email protected] Europe (Switzerland): +41.41.455.2522 U.S.: +1.650.298.8555 www.isisglobal.com
Lucerne – San Francisco – Princeton (NJ) – Shanghai – Bangalore – Miami
www.isisglobal.com