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Using Roadmapping to DriveCollaborative Innovation
Richard E. Albright
Albright Strategy Group, LLC
Key Points
• Roadmaps and Roadmapping– Roadmap objectives and purposes
– A common planning framework
• Roadmapping for Collaborative Innovation– International Technology Roadmap for
Semiconductors (ITRS)
– METI’s Strategic Technology RoadmappingInitiative (Japan)
– Malaria Vaccine Roadmap
How can you measure innovation if
you don’t know where you’re going?
Roadmaps and Roadmapping
A Roadmap– is the view of a group of how to get where they
want to go, or achieve their desired objective.(Discipline)
– helps the group make sure the capabilities toachieve their objective are in place at the timeneeded. (Focus)
Roadmapping– is a Learning process for the group.– is a Communication tool for the group.
The learning and communication benefits of the
roadmapping process are as important as the roadmap
document that results.
Many Roadmapping Objectives
Roadmap Types Examples:
Science and Technology
• Identify or Set ResearchAgenda
• Technology Assessment
• Malaria Vaccine Roadmap
• Quantum Computing Roadmap
• Structure and Evolution of the
Universe: Beyond Einstein Roadmap
(NASA)
Industry and Government
• Set Industry Direction
• Coordinate Execution
• International Technology Roadmap for
Semiconductors (ITRS)
• US Dept. of Energy – Industries of
the Future: Aluminum, Glass, Steel, …
• Japan Strategic Technology
Roadmaps for National Innovation
System (METI & NEDO)
Corporate/Organization
• Set and Monitor
Direction
• Coordinate Execution
• Manage Portfolios
• Value Creation (Strategy) Roadmaps
• Product-Technology and Platform
Roadmaps
• Service Capability Roadmaps
• Manufacturing Roadmaps
The International Technology
Roadmap for Semiconductors
(2007)
1.E-08
1.E-07
1.E-06
1.E-05
2005 2010 2015 2020
DR
AM
co
st/
bit
10-5
10-6
10-7
10-8
100
1000
10000
100000
2005 2010 2015 2020
tran
sist
ors
/ch
ip
108
1011
1010
109
Roadmap Planning in Four Steps
Pull
(requirements,
drivers)
Push
(capabilities)
Time
“Know-why”
“Know-what”
“Know-how”
“Know-when”
Understand applications and/or markets. Target key segments.
Identify competitors, complementors, and partners.
Set strategic direction
Define architecture. What characteristics/features are most
important? Link application drivers to specific challenges and
evolution. Set multi-year targets.
What technologies are most important? Link drivers to
technologies and evolution. Identify
multi-generation technology investments to maintain
competitiveness.
What resources and investments are needed? Plan projects with
the highest priorities. Are technology investments in the most
important areas? Identify and track risk areas.
Definition and Scope
Direction
Technology Roadmap
Action Plan and Investment Summary“To-Do”
(Sources: Tom Kappel; Phaal, R., Farrukh, C., and
Probert, D., Fast-start Technology Roadmapping;
Richard Albright.)
Science and Technology Roadmap
Trends/Discontinuities
ChallengesCustomer or Complementor
Drivers
Architectural Fit
Ease of training and use
Value
Functionality
Interoperability
Service/Support
Product Drivers
(Attributes)
PD1
PD2
PD3
PD4
PD5
PD6
PD7
Prioritize top to bottom
Architecture &
Elements
4
5
3
Research
Direction
(Know-what) (Know-when)
ApplicationPull Technology
Push
Definition
and Scope
(Know-why)
-1 0 1
OurCo rel. position
Competitor #2
Competitor #1
OurCo
OurCo LeadsOurCo Lags
Customer Driver #1
Customer Driver #2
Customer Driver #3
Customer Driver #4
Customer Driver #5
Customer Driver #1
Customer Driver #2
Customer Driver #3
Customer Driver #4
Customer Driver #5
Applications1. Nanostructured Materials “By Design;”
2. Nanoelectronics, Optoelectronics And Magnetics
3. Advanced Healthcare, Therapeutics And Diagnostics
4. Nanoscale Processes For Environmental Improvement
5. Efficient Energy Conversion And Storage
6. Microcraft And Robotics.
7. Nanoscale Instrumentation And Metrology
8. Manufacturing At The Nanoscale.
9. Nanostructures For Chemical, Biological, Radiological, And
Explosive (CBRE) Detection And Protection For Homeland
Defense.
Source: US National Nanotechnology Initiative: “Grand Challenges” for 2003
-1 0 1
OurCo rel. position
Competitor #2
Competitor #1
OurCo
OurCo LeadsOurCo Lags
Customer Driver #1
Customer Driver #2
Customer Driver #3
Customer Driver #4
Customer Driver #5
Customer Driver #1
Customer Driver #2
Customer Driver #3
Customer Driver #4
Customer Driver #5
Science&Technology
ElementsNanotechnology
10-9 – 10-7 mUnderstand Physical, chemical, biological properties, behavior
Innovations in materials, electronics, medicine, environment, biotechnology, computing.
1
2
Technology
Roadmap
(Know-how)
Competitive LandscapeCompetitor (share; base)
Strengths (+) and
weaknesses (-)
Core Competency Strategic Goals Value Proposition
Company (x%; y%)
Competitor
#1 (x%; y%)
Competitor
#2 (x%; y%)
Competitor
#3
(x %; y %)
Map to ElementsProduct Drivers
Architectural Fit
Ease of training and use
Value
Functionality
Interoperability
Service/Support
Technology Roadmap
Product Elements
TE1
TE2
TE3
TE4
TE5
TE6
TE7
Prioritize top to bottom
Technology RoadmapVISION
Core technology
Area
Product drivers
Import.Compet.
Position
L M H Lag Lead
C=current, F=future
CF
C F
CF
LEGEND: Technology Source:
Devel. InternalSupplierSupplier
CF
CF
CF
FC
Research
CF
Funding status:
Staffed Planned Unplanned
Voice coders
DSP noise algorithms
Vcelp
Expander
First order gradient (FOG)Microphone
ITU, Qcelp13
Steering array
Receivers Piezoelectric Noise cancelling earpiece, miniaturized
IS-99 Data BER Improvement/echo cancel.
Audio quality
Interface ASIC
Audio codec
Microcontroller
5735 Chip
1832DSP
Audio front end
Bas
eban
dci
rcui
t
ACA
CMOS
Bipolar discretes
8 bit CISC 16 bit CISC
Integrated
Call signal
proc.
CF
CF
CF
CF
CF
C
CF
F
C
C F
F
Housing
PWB 6 layer 1.5mm 6 layer 1mm
1.4mm1.7mm thick 1.2mm
4 layer 0.8mm Flex Molded-in
“Soft
Radio”
microcontroller
Single
Baseband
Chip
Weight/size
C
CF
C F
CF
F
FC
Switching (80% eff.)
Ease of use
Display 2-line LCD
User interface
Software
Talk time
Battery
Power amp
Radio
Antenna
4-line LCD 1/4 VGA
Navigation keys
Menu driven
NiCd - 4.8V
Linear - 50% efficient
Triple conversion
Module
Dual band, High gain
NiMH - 3.6V
Power supply
Diversity
C
F C
CF
F F
Touch
Sensitive
Configurable Cust. adaptive
Altern. tech.
~100% effic.
Double conversion
MMIC-3VRF
CF
CF
CF
CF
C
CF
FC
CF
CF CF
Voice
Interface
Homodyne Tunable,
Homodyne
CF
CF
CF
Last Yr Now +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year
6
7
8
Risk RoadmapNOW +2Q +4Q +6Q LONG-TERM
Risk Categories
Schedule (deliverables)
Risk s1 [.3] Risk s2 [.1]
completion events
Economic(cost, contract, budget)
Risk e1 [.2] Risk e2 [.1]
completion events
Resource(e.g., organizational,
execution)
Risk r1 [.1]Risk r2 [.6]
Risk r3 [.4]
completion events
Market (growth,strategy,
product attributes,
etc.)
Risk m1 [.4] Risk m2 [.5] Risk m3 [.2]
market events
Technical(component or system
performance)
Risk t1 [.2] Risk t2 [.1] Risk t3 [.5]
test events
Show StopperMajorMinorRisk Consequence:
NOW +2Q +4Q +6Q LONG-TERMNOW +2Q +4Q +6Q LONG-TERMRisk Categories
Schedule (deliverables)
Risk s1 [.3] Risk s2 [.1]
completion events
Schedule (deliverables)
Risk s1 [.3] Risk s2 [.1]
completion events
Risk s1 [.3] Risk s2 [.1]
completion events
Economic(cost, contract, budget)
Risk e1 [.2] Risk e2 [.1]
completion events
Economic(cost, contract, budget)
Risk e1 [.2] Risk e2 [.1]
completion events
Risk e1 [.2] Risk e2 [.1]
completion events
Resource(e.g., organizational,
execution)
Risk r1 [.1]Risk r2 [.6]
Risk r3 [.4]
completion events
Resource(e.g., organizational,
execution)
Risk r1 [.1]Risk r2 [.6]
Risk r3 [.4]
completion events
Risk r1 [.1]Risk r2 [.6]
Risk r3 [.4]
completion events
Market (growth,strategy,
product attributes,
etc.)
Risk m1 [.4] Risk m2 [.5] Risk m3 [.2]
market events
Market (growth,strategy,
product attributes,
etc.)
Risk m1 [.4] Risk m2 [.5] Risk m3 [.2]
market events
Technical(component or system
performance)
Risk t1 [.2] Risk t2 [.1] Risk t3 [.5]
test events
Technical(component or system
performance)
Risk t1 [.2] Risk t2 [.1] Risk t3 [.5]
test events
Risk t1 [.2] Risk t2 [.1] Risk t3 [.5]
test events
Show StopperMajorMinorRisk Consequence:
Summary and Action
Plan
(To-do)
Map to InvestmentsDisruptive
Differentiating
Base
DevelopAcquire Partner
Monitor
Defend
Attack
Co
mp
etitive
Im
pa
ct
of
Te
ch
no
log
y
Technology Source
Potential to change the
basis of competition
Product/Process
Differentiation
Widespread
and Shared
Disruptive
Differentiating
Base
DevelopAcquire Partner
Monitor
Defend
Attack
Co
mp
etitive
Im
pa
ct
of
Te
ch
no
log
y
Technology Source
Potential to change the
basis of competition
Product/Process
Differentiation
Widespread
and Shared
Action Summary
11
12
9
10
International SemiconductorTechnology Roadmap
Building on Experience
106 107 108 109 1010 1011 1012 1016101510141013
0.1
10-2
10-3
10-4
1
10
100
1
• Repeated, significant changes in product and technology1964 1984 1994 2004 20141974
10-6
10-7
10-5
10-8
2001-2005 International
Technology Roadmap for
Semiconductors
Cumulative volume (DRAM bits)
Ave
rag
e S
elli
ng
Pri
ce
(ce
nts
/bit)
• Semiconductor Roadmap coordinates many industry players, driving “Moore’s Law”
http://www.itrs.net/
64
74
84
70% Slope
Japan’s Strategic TechnologyRoadmaps
http://www.meti.go.jp/report/data/g50330bj.html
Collaboration for Economic Development
Leadership METI (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry)
Participation Government, Industry, Academia
Challenges 1. To maintain international competitiveness under growing economiesin the world
2. To achieve sustained economy with sustainable environment
3. To supply sufficient human resources under the predicted decreasein population
Purposes 1. Seeks public understanding by providing an explanation of the
perspective, details, and achievements of METI’s R&D investments
2. Understands technological and market trends, prioritizes critical
technologies, and develops policy infrastructure for planning R&D
projects
3. Promotes cross-field and cross-industrial alliances, technology
fusion, and coordinated implementation of relevant policies
4. Assembles the comprehensive strength of industry, academia, and
public institution
Japan’s Strategic TechnologyRoadmaps
Information and Communications
1. Semi-conductors,
2. Storage and non-volatile memory,
3. Computers,
4. Networks,
5. Usability (e.g. displays),
6. Software
Life Science
1. Drug discovery,
2. Diagnostic and Treatment equipment,
3. Regenerative medicine
Environment and Energy
1. Carbon dioxide capture and storage,
2. Reduction of CFC and development ofCFC substitutes,
3. Comprehensive control of chemicalsubstances,
4. 3Rs (Reduce, Reuse and Recycle),
5. Energy (under development)
Manufacturing
1. Robots,
2. Aircrafts,
3. Space,
4. Nanotechnology,
5. Materials and components,
6. MEMS (Micro-Electro Mechanical System),
7. Green Bio (Biotechnology forenvironmental improvement and finematerials production)
Roadmapping Areas
Needs Seeds
edical, public and office-related fields
Assistance robots for hospital use (A-F), guide and security robots (ABDEF), cleaning and transfer robots (ADEF)
ousehold and welfare fields Housework assistance robots (A-F), self-support assistance robots (A-F), home care and nursing care robots (A-F), child rearing assistance robots (A-F),medical
care and training robots (A-F), entertainment robots (A-F), multifunctional home robots (A-F), intelligent house (ABEF)
ndustrial robots, etc Industrial robots (A-F), intelligent cars (ABDEF), building, civil engineering, agricultural, forestry and marine robots (A-F), disaster restoration work
and dangerous materials disposal robots (A-F), space robots (A-F)
Necessary technologiesEnvironment structurization, actuator, standardization Recognition processing, sensing Sensing, control, mechanism, actuator, standardizationSensing, control, mechanism, actuator Control, actuator, standardization Control, actuator, standardization
Common technology: Systematization technology
Necessary functions A. Environment structurization, standardization B. Communication
C. ManipulationD. Movement E. Energy source and power managementF. Safety technology
Intro
ductio
n s
cenario
xtraction and solution of institutional problems (such as rulemaking for ensuring safety, response to accidents, response in medical and welfare systems, etc.) onsideration of measures to promote widespread use of robots (establishing public acceptance, government procurement, incentive measures for introduction, etc.)
Development of advanced model applications leading to an increase in
actual demand by pioneering users, including government and other public
demand
Expansion and intensification of common infrastructure
Development of element technologies according to robot types
Activated development of robots and expansion of number of companies entering the robot industry
Improvement of institutional
infrastructure, etc
2004 2010 2015 2025
Establishment of fundamental element technologies
Development of middleware
Pre-spread stage Spreading stage Full-scale spread stage Infrastructure developmenttoward practical use
Standardization of interface Technological development
Development of
advanced applications
Efforts by companies
Technolo
gy m
ap
Field of robotics Image of robots in and after 10 to 20 years
2010 2015
Communication
Manipulation
Movement
:
:
and so on
Required
functions and
element
technologies
Household and welfare
At present
Assistance in watching (wandering) and accompanying (walks) Assistance in outdoor movement and work
In-home medical care
Housework assistance
Child rearing assistance
Entertainment
Health
Security
Self-support
assistance
Home care and
nursing care
Medical care and
training
Cleaning robots (with more functionality, responding to special parts)
Health care (blood sugar level, etc.) and medication management
Aid in medical practice (phlegm suction, catheter management, etc.)
Power-assist aids (fitting type)
Intelligent house (Robotics house)
Automated network household appliances, furnished with sensing infrastructure
and vital sensing functions for robot autonomous movement
Self-support and home care assistance functions built in rooms and beds
Cleanup robots (maximum permissible weight: 6 kg)
Lightweight conveyance robots (maximum load: 20 kg 40 kg)
Rehabilitation and function-recovery training system
Getting up from bed assistance robots
Meal assistance robots
Excretion and bathing assistance robots
Cleanup robots (maximum permissible weight: about 10 kg)
House-sitting robots (keeping the outdoors under robot camera watch, in coordination with patrol robots) Security robots
Toy robots Healing robots Intelligent home appliance robots Health monitoring systemInfant watch robots (including intellectual education)
Meal and light-work assistance robots
Sensory communicationDialogist selection function Proper dialogs; distinguishing between three or more kinds of intentionsFragmentary recognition of a single motionNatural dialogs according to situations;
combination of about 1,000 words
Ro
ad
ma
p
2025
Heavyweight conveyance robots (able to convey aperson: 50 - 70 kg)
Network agent robots (Movement Conveyance Work)
Multiple-work assistance robots
Multifunctional home robots
Extension of functions
Integration of tasks
Movement, postural change, getting up from bed, clothes-changing and body-wiping assistance robots
Capability to run at about the same speed as a manCapability to run on two legs
Steps, slopes, jumpCapability to walk at about the same speed as a manOrdinary roads, outdoor unleveled ground
2 m/s
Hand: 3-fingered with 9 degrees of
freedom; mass 1 kg; handling of about
1 kg; driver built-in; wiring-saving
Hand: 3-fingered with 9 degrees
of freedom; mass 1 kg; handling
of about 500 g
Arm: Mass 35 kg; fingertip speed
2 m/s; load capacity 10 kg
Heavyweight arm: Mass 35 kg; fingertip speed
6 m/s; load capacity 10 kg
Lightweight arm: Mass 5 kg; fingertip speed
1 m/s; load capacity 1.5 kg
Hand: 4-fingered with 16 degrees
of freedom; mass 1 kg; handling
of about 1 kg; with tactual
sensing function
Arm: Simultaneous subtle and
heavy-load works; mass 10 kg;
fingertip speed 2m/s; load capacity 5kg
Hand: 5-fingered with 20 degrees of
freedom; mass 0.5 kg; handling of about
2kg; with soft skin Arm: Load capacity 10kg
METI Robotics Roadmap
Malaria Vaccine Roadmap
http://www.malariavaccineroadmap.net
Coordinating Research Direction
Leadership Malaria Vaccine Initiative (Gates Foundation) and other Funders.
Global
Ownership
More than 230 people representing more than 100 organizations
in 35 countries provided their input.
Vision The malaria vaccine community will develop an effective vaccine
that prevents severe disease and death caused by Plasmodium
falciparum malaria in children under five in sub-Saharan Africa
and other highly endemic regions. Efficient global coordination
and collaboration will stimulate the malaria vaccine pipeline and
accelerate progress towards this achievement.
Landmark By 2015, develop and license a first generation malaria vaccine
that has a protective efficacy of more than 50% against severe
disease and death and lasts longer than one year.
Strategic Goal By 2025, develop and license a malaria vaccine that has a
protective efficacy of more than 80% against clinical disease and
lasts longer than four years.
Summary
Roadmapping:
Discipline & Focus
Learning & Communications
Roadmapping: To Learn More
• Research and Technology Management special sections on roadmapping:– March-April 2003, Vol. 46 No. 2, 26 – 59
– March-April 2004, Vol. 47 No. 2, 25 – 57
• Technological Forecasting and Social Change special issue:– “Roadmapping: From Sustainable to Disruptive Technologies,”
Volume 71, Issues 1-2, (January - February 2004)
• Mapping Tools– “Product and Technology Mapping Tools for Planning and Portfolio Decision Making,” Albright and Nelson, PDMA
Toolbook for New Product Development II, John Wiley & Sons, October, 2004.
• Key Papers– Willyard, C.H., and McClees, C.W.: Motorola’s technology roadmapping process, Research Management, Sept.-Oct., 13-
19 (1987).
– Groenveld, P.: Roadmapping integrates business and technology, Research Technology Management, Sept-Oct., 48-55(1997).
– T. Kappel, "Perspectives on roadmaps, How organizations talk about the future," Journal of Product InnovationManagement, V18 (2001) p 39-50.
– R. Kostoff and R. Schaller, "Science and Technology Roadmaps," IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, VOL.48, NO. 2, May 2001.
– R. E. Albright, Roadmapping for Global Platform Products, Product Development and Management Association VisionsMagazine, Vol. 26 No. 4, pgs. 19 – 22, October, 2002.
– R. E. Albright, “Roadmapping Convergence,” in Managing Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno Innovations: Converging Technologies inSociety, W. S. Bainbridge and M. C. Roco, eds., Springer, 2006. On applying roadmapping to converging technologies:nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology, cognitive science.
– Philip J. Whalen, Strategic and Technology Planning on a Roadmapping Foundation, Research and TechnologyManagement, Volume 50 Number 3, May 2007
– Raymond R. Cosner; E. Jefferson Hynds; Alan R. Fusfeld; Carl V. Loweth; Charles Scouten; Richard Albright, IntegratingRoadmapping Into Technical Planning, Research and Technology Management, Volume 50 Number 6, November, 2007.
– Pieter Groenveld, Roadmapping Integrates Business and Technology, Research and Technology Management, Volume50 Number 6, November, 2007 (reprint and update of an earlier paper).
– Yuya Kajikawa, Osamu Usui, Kazuaki Hakata, Yuko Yasunaga and Katsumori Matsushima, Structure of knowledge in thescience and technology roadmaps, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 75, Issue 1, (January 2008),Pages 1-11
Albright Strategy Group
http://www.albrightstrategy.com