Using Statistics – from Florence Nightingale to Al Gore…

NZAMT 2007NZAMT 2007

Plan for today

Health Statistics Florence Nightingale Dynamic Graphs - Gapminder UN Statistics

Statistical Literacy Curriculum Data Lenses

Environmental Statistics Expectation / Surprise Al Gore Correlation / Causation

Task One

Look at the graph you have been given…

What do you think?

The Areas of the blue, red, & black wedges are each measured from the centre as the common vertex.The blue wedges measured from the centre of the circle represent area for area the deaths from Preventable or Mitigable Zymotic diseases, the red wedges measured from the centre the deaths from wounds, & the black wedges measured from the centre the deaths from all other causes.The black line across the red triangle in Nov. 1854 marks the boundary of the deaths from all other causes during the month.In October 1854, & April 1855, the black area coincides with the red, in January & February 1855, the blue coincides with the black.The entire areas may be compared by following the blue, the red, & the black lines enclosing them.Source: Nightingale, Florence. Notes on Matters Affecting the Health, Efficiency and Hospital Administration of the British Army, 1858.

http://www.nightingaledeclaration.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=37&Itemid=25

Florence Nightingale

   "To understand God's thoughts we must study statistics, for these are the measure of His purpose"

• Issue – high mortality Issue – high mortality rate due to unsanitary rate due to unsanitary conditionsconditions

• Collected dataCollected data

• Invented Polar Area Invented Polar Area DiagramDiagram

• Intro of field hospitalsIntro of field hospitals

http://www.math.yorku.ca/SCS/Gallery/milestone/sec1.html

Milestones in the History of Thematic Cartography, Statistical Graphics, and Data Visualization

Further Exploration…

The new curriculum…

Evaluate the effectiveness of different displays in representing the findings of a statistical investigation or probability activity undertaken by others.

Evaluate statements made by others about the findings of statistical investigations and probability activities.

Evaluate statistical investigations or probability activities undertaken by others, including data collection methods, choice of measures, and validity of findings.

The draft new curriculum…

Evaluate statistical reports in the media by relating the displays, statistics, processes and probabilities used to the claims made.

Evaluate statistically based reports: Interpreting risk and relative risk Identifying sampling and possible non-sampling

errors in surveys, including polls. Evaluate a wide range of statistically based

reports, including surveys and polls, experiments, and observational studies: Critiquing causal-relationship claims; Interpreting margins of error

Possible lenses for viewing data displays

I notice / I wonder Interest Groups Analysis Matrix THINKits Expectations / Surprises Tell a story…

Gapminder…

Tell a story…

Use the gapminder software, select a graph and use it to tell a story…

Downloads

www.gapminder.org, click on Gapminder Tools… then download button under each graph

http://www.gapminder.org/downloads/applications/

Your turn…

Look at the graph you have been given from the viewpoint of the region you represent…

An alternative method…

Small Medium Large

Africa

Americas

Eastern Mediterranean

Europe

South East Asia

Western Pacific

Expectations / Surprises

Challenging preconceived ideas

Exploring Centre and Spread

UN Stats

I notice… I wonder…

Thinking matrix

Link

http://www.who.int/whosis/whostat2007_10highlights.pdf

WHO – WHO Statistical Information System

http://www.who.int/whosis/en/

Life expectancy at birth (years)

Rationale for use Life expectancy at birth reflects the overall mortality level

of a population. It summarizes the mortality pattern that prevails across all age groups - children and adolescents, adults and the elderly.

Definition Average number of years that a newborn is expected to

live if current mortality rates continue to apply. Associated terms A life table presents a set of tabulations that describe the

probability of dying, the death rate and the number of survivors for each age or age group. Accordingly, life expectancy at birth is an output of a life table.

Data sources Vital registration, census and surveys: Age-specific

mortality rates required to compute life expectancy at birth.

Methods of estimation WHO has developed a model life table based on about 1800 life

tables from vital registration judged to be of good quality. For countries with vital registration, the level of completeness

of recorded mortality data in the population is assessed and mortality rates are adjusted accordingly.

Where vital registration data for 2003 were available, these were used directly to construct the life table. For countries where the information system provided a time series of annual life tables, parameters from the life table were projected using a weighted regression model, giving more weight to recent years. Projected values of the two life table parameters were then applied to the modified logit life table model, where the most recent national data provided an age pattern, to predict the full life table for 2003.

In case of inadequate sources of age-specific mortality rates, the life table is derived from estimated under-5 mortality rates and adult mortality rates that are applied to a global standard (defined as the average of all the 1800 life tables) using a modified logit model.

Disaggregation By sex, location (urban/rural, major

regions/provinces). Comments The lack of complete and reliable mortality data,

especially for low income countries and particularly on mortality among adults and the elderly, necessitates the application of modelling (based on data from other populations) to estimate life expectancy. WHO uses a standard method as explained above to estimate and project life tables for all Member States using comparable data. This may lead to minor differences compared with official life tables prepared by Member States.

A look at environmental data…

Where would you like to live

Environmental Statistics

Al Gore

An inconvenient truth

http://www.climatecrisis.net/

Some graphs

Compare and Contrast it

An inconvenient truth

Deaths from global warming will double in just 25 years -- to 300,000 people a year.6

Global sea levels could rise by more than 20 feet with the loss of shelf ice in Greenland and

Antarctica, devastating coastal areas worldwide.7

The Arctic Ocean could be ice free in summer by 2050.8

More than a million species worldwide could be driven to extinction by 2050.9

Droughts and wildfires will occur more often.

Heat waves will be more frequent and more intense.

The number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes has almost doubled in the last 30 years.2

Malaria has spread to higher altitudes in places like the Colombian Andes, 7,000 feet above sea

level.3

The flow of ice from glaciers in Greenland has more than doubled over the past decade.4

At least 279 species of plants and animals are already responding to global warming, moving

closer to the poles.5

Correlation / Causation

Power point

Statistical Thinking

A statistician is a person who stands in a bucket of ice water, sticks their head in an oven and says "On average, I feel fine."

K.Dunnigan

A mathematician is a blindfolded person in a dark room looking for a black cat which isn't there.

Charles Darwin