Using UK climate change projections to adapt existing English homes for a warming climate

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Building and Environment 55 (2012) 20e42

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Building and Environment

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Using UK climate change projections to adapt existing English homes fora warming climate

Rajat Gupta*, Matthew GreggLow Carbon Building Group, School of Architecture, Oxford Brookes University, Headington Campus, Gipsy Lane, Oxford OX3 0BP, UK

a r t i c l e i n f o

Article history:Received 30 September 2011Received in revised form2 January 2012Accepted 17 January 2012

Keywords:Climate changeOverheatingAdaptationMitigationSuburban housing

* Corresponding author. Tel.: þ44 (0) 1865 484049E-mail addresses: [email protected] (R. Gu

(M. Gregg).

0360-1323/$ e see front matter � 2012 Elsevier Ltd.doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2012.01.014

a b s t r a c t

This paper uses probabilistic climate change data from the UK Climate Change Projections 2009 to defineextreme climate change in order to model the effect of future temperature change, particularly summeroverheating on the energy consumption of, and comfort in, existing English homes (located in Oxford).Climate change risk is then analysed as a factor of climate hazard, exposure and vulnerability. With therisk of overheating theoretically identified, the risk of overheating and the future change impact on spaceheating energy use is then virtually detailed for four English home types modelled using future weatheryears in a dynamic simulation modelling software (IES). A range of passive adaptation measures are thencritically reviewed with regard to their effectiveness in minimising the negative impacts of climatechange and to identify the most effective measures in reducing or eliminating the negative impacts ofclimate change on comfort and energy consumption. In addition the adaptation options are grouped andtested as packages in order to identify the optimal solution for adaptive retrofitting of English homes. Forall homes modelled, user-controlled shading proved to be the most effective adaptation. Increasing thesurface albedo of the building fabric and exposure of thermal mass were also revealed to be effectivealthough proving to be complicated and requiring detailed consideration of the optimal locations.Ultimately among the passive options tested, the research found that none could completely eliminatethe risk of overheating in the homes, particularly by the 2080s.

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1. Introduction

Adaptation of the built environment to climate change isbecoming increasingly as important as mitigation. Adaptation,a responsive adjustment to reduce or eliminate risk, will be criticalgiven the earth is committed to at least 1.8 �C global average surfacewarming by the end of the century even in the most optimisticprojection presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC) [1]. In the United Kingdom, it is very unlikely that themean summer temperature change increase for the southeast ofEngland will be below 1.4 �C by the 2080s [2].

The housing sector in particular is not only contributing toa significant proportion (27%) of the UK’s CO2 emissions as a resultof energy consumed for heating, lighting, cooking and use ofelectrical appliances, but it is also recognised to be inadequate incapacity to adapt to future climate change or even variation in thecurrent climate [3,4]. A warming climate is projected to change thecomfort conditions and energy use patterns of existing UK homes

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to a considerable degree throughout this century. This is whyemerging policy on climate change adaptation is overwhelminglyfocused on tackling overheating in new and existing housing [5].This policy focus needs to quickly link with the large scale deepretrofitting programmes, such as the Technology Strategy Board’sRetrofit for Future programme, which are taking place now inresponse to the UK government’s intent to reduce CO2 emissions80% below 1990 levels by 2050 [6]. Climate change mitigation canbe both synergistic and opposable to adaptation so it is in our bestinterest to ensure that the retrofits do not lock-in overheating riskthroughmeasures that are not tested for future change in climate. Itis also important that the potential to adapt in simple ways are notmissed in the process of retrofitting the existing building stock. Inorder to most effectively reduce the risk to future generations it isessential that neither mitigation nor adaptation have negativeconsequences nor become contradictory [7].

Climate change adaptation has a clear role to play in mitigationoriented refurbishment approaches. One clear example is thata large majority of dwellings in the UK have no mechanical cool-ing. Modelling has shown that building performance in current‘heatwave conditions’ can function as a performance benchmarkfor a typical hot summer in the 2050s [8]. Increase in summer

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R. Gupta, M. Gregg / Building and Environment 55 (2012) 20e42 21

temperature like this has the potential to increase occupantvulnerability to overheating and the potential to increase energyuse through the widespread responsive installation of air-conditioning for occupant comfort [9]. Collins, Natarajan andLevermore [9] modelled the impact of climate change on theoverall UK housing stock (assuming a 50% uptake of air-conditioning with no passive alterations and assuming heatingmethods would continue as they are currently) and found thatthere would be a 10% decrease in CO2 emissions from the drop inheating demand. They however note later in the paper thatanother study suggests that one in four homes will be mechan-ically cooling by 2030 and that heat pumps (with cooling capacity)could become popular, placing pressure on electricity supply.Though a reduction in CO2 emissions has been modelled there arealso other considerations (noted as not within the scope of themodelling research) such as noise pollution, power outages andthe effect of air-conditioning on the local urban heat island (UHI)effect [10,11]. Table 1 summarises the details and key findings ofa list of studies which focus on or mention the necessity foradapting homes for climate change in the UK. This papercontributes to the body of work presented in Table 1 by focussingon the English suburban typology while specific focus is given toa particular location, modelling method and defined climateprojections. This work differs notably in that it presents themodelling of each individual home at high emissions scenarioswith upper level probabilities (where change is very unlikely to begreater than) projections for each climate period. A majority of the

Table 1Review of literature involved in, but not limited to, testing the impact of increased summ

Study and methodology Location(s) Typologies

Orme, Palmer and Irving,2003 Computer modelling

Not given Detached housesemi-detachedhouse, top floorand town house

Hacker, Belcher and Connell,2005 Computer modelling

London, Manchesterand Edinburgh

19th century semand new build d

Gaterell and McEvoy, 2005Computer modelling (TAS)

Southeast England 1968 Detached h

Three Regions Climate ChangeGroup, 2008 Computer modelling

South east England,East England and London

1930s house, 19entire block of fl

Day, Jones and Maidment(2009) Statistical modelling

London Amalgamation o

Coley and Kershaw, 2009Computer modelling (IES)

London Typical new buiand apartment

Collins, Natarajan and Levermore,2010 Computer modelling (IES)

Cardiff, Edinburgh,London and Manchester

Entire UK housinto be representeend terrace, midsemi-detached,detached, conveand purpose bui

Zero Carbon Hub, 2010 Computermodelling (IES, SAP and

“Different UK locations”Thames Valleycompared with EastScotland for SAP model

Semi-detached htop floor apartm

work to date, in contrast used UKCIP02 future weather data wherethe probability was locked at a central estimate (50%). This is nota limitation of the previous work but simply where the data hadprogressed at the time of research.

The first objective of this paper is to evaluate the effect ofclimate change on the existing suburban English home in order toreveal the potential impacts on both the thermal comfort of occu-pants and future energy use with implications of increased CO2emissions. These are important determinants when attempting toestablish both the vulnerability of a building and occupants ina heatwave and the potential change in energy use and CO2 emis-sions as a result of changing climatic conditions. The secondobjective is to establish effective and practicable adaptation strat-egies for reducing the potential for overheating in the homes. Inorder to meet these objectives the aims were to:

� Define and model the risk: increase in temperature for a loca-tion in the UK which will experience some of the greatestimpacts as a result of climate change

� Establish through key sources how a number of existing Eng-lish suburban homes can be defined and modelled

� Chose effective adaptation options which can be feasibly addedto a retrofitting agenda for existing English suburban homes

� Create testable adaptation packages in order to establish themost effective in reducing overheating whilst at the same timereducing space heating demand in order to remain relevant tothe retrofit agenda

er temperature as a result of climate change on the UK domestic sector.

Key findings

,

flat

e No combination of measures entirelyeliminated overheating. Night-timecooling of thermal mass is most effectivein preventing overheating [12].

i-detached houseetached house

e Solar shading and ventilation werefound to be effective.

e New build, due to air-tightness and insulationlevels even more successful than older home [13].

ouse e The space heating demand reduction of doubleglazing depreciates faster than other measuresas the climate changes but still delivers thehighest savings. Loft insulation was found tobe the least effective for all projections [14].

60s flat and anats

e Increased façade reflectivity, solar control,ventilation, enhanced air movement and coolerfloors were effective in reducing overheatinghours epotential eliminating the need forair-conditioning.

e It may not be possible to passively cool homeslocated in areas of high urban heat islandintensity [10].

f housing stock e Growth in active cooling use in entire building stockcould result in double CO2 emissions by 2030 [15].

ld house e The relationship between increases in externaltemperature due to climate change and increasesin internal temperature is linear.

e Only two simulations within a range of climatescenarios of a building are necessary to establisha gradient from which all other scenarios can becalculated [16].

g stockd:-terrace,

rted flat,lt flat

e Heating will continue to be the prominent loadrather than cooling throughout the century evenwith a large uptake of air-conditioning indwellings [9].

ouse,ent,

e Additional insulation coupled with reduced air leakageenhanced solar gain, decreasing space heating anddecreasing summer comfort [17].

Climate period Emissions scenario Probability

Current climate (baseline) 1961e1990 N/A N/AClimate projection I 2030s High emissions 90%Climate projection II 2050s High emissions 90%Climate projection III 2080s High emissions 90%

R. Gupta, M. Gregg / Building and Environment 55 (2012) 20e4222

This work is undertaken as a part of the Suburban Neighbour-hood Adaptation for a Changing Climate (SNACC) project, specifi-cally presenting findings from a portion of the work for Phase 2.SNACC is a UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council(EPSRC) funded 3-year consortium-based project with the objectiveto identify effective, practical and acceptable means of suburban re-design in response to climate change projections. SNACC seeks toanswer the question: How can existing suburban neighbourhoodsbe best adapted to reduce further impacts of climate change andwithstand ongoing changes? It will, in the end, determine whichneighbourhood adaptations perform ‘best’ against three criteria:technical performance, practicality and acceptability. SNACC involvesa multi-disciplinary team of academic partners from OxfordBrookes University, University of the West of England, and Heriot-Watt University, as well as stakeholder partners (Bristol City,Oxford City and Stockport Councils, and White Design) and expertconsultant, Arup, who can implement the findings in the builtenvironment. Both authors form the Oxford Brookes Universityportion of the SNACC team.

2. Methodology

To test the impacts of climate change and effectiveness ofadaptation on existing suburban English homes, four initial stepshad to be taken (Fig. 1):

� Analyse and select projections of climate change to be tested(Section 2.1)

� Select an appropriate location for testing extreme climatechange on the model (Section 2.2)

� Define the risk for the selected location: The location selectionis informed by the projected climate change for the UK. Riskanalysis of the location must then be informed by the climatechange projections (Section 2.3)

� Establish and select a number of existing suburban Englishhomes, their construction details and occupancy patterns formodelling (Section 2.4)

Modelling of the homes and adaptation testing was done inIntegrated Environmental Solutions (IES) Virtual Environmentversion 6.2 via ModelIT and Apache respectively. The next foursteps define the process for evaluating the impact of climate changeand selecting effective adaptation strategies:

� Establish the extent of potential for overheating and variationin space heating use as a result of climate change (Section 3)

� Survey a list of adaption options to be tested (Section 4)� Analyse the effectiveness of each option on the various hometypologies (Section 5.2)

� Formulate packages of adaptation options for retrofitting thatare found to be most effective for the particular typologies andoccupant patterns (Section 5.3)

Fig. 1. Model definition meth

2.1. Climate change projections

Current climate change projections for the UK are available fromthe UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09). The UKCP09 providesclimate change data as mean seasonal or monthly values of a largecatalogue of climate parameters for the entire UK, for seven over-lapping climate periods and three emissions scenarios for a wideprobability range [19]. The PROMETHEUS team, an EPSRC fundedproject, at the University of Exeter have developed IES ready futureweather files fromUKCP09 weather generator exported data. Thesefiles, which provided hourly weather data, are used for themodelling of future impacts and adaptation testing for the builtenvironment. Refer to Hacker, Capon and Mylona (2009) fora detailed description of the various downscaling methodologiesthat can be used to develop future weather years from climatechange projection data.

In developing suitable projections for modelling, we chose tomodel ‘extreme’ climate change for three climate periods availablefrom PROMETHEUS (2030s [2020e2049], 2050s [2040e2069] and2080s [2070e2099]) using test reference year future weather yearfiles [20]. This extreme climate change represents the worst-casescenario for change and impact as exhibited through impact onthe models. The ‘worst-case scenario’ or extreme climate change isconsidered to be important when considering change for the builtenvironment. The building adapted for the extreme case should bethe most robust design, a design that is resilient or even resistant inboth the current climate and the greatest change in future climate.Extreme climate change will represent the high emissions scenarioat 90% probability (where change is very unlikely to be greater thana given value). The three climate projections and the current(reference) climate used for the modelling in this paper are listedbelow:

Though the UKCP09 recommends that all three emissionsscenarios be considered, this is stated from the perspective that allsectors will be studying the impacts of climate change in manyvaried areas [19]. An approach published by Raupach et al [21]suggests using the emissions scenario most closely related to thecurrent trend in global greenhouse gas emissions. The study foundthat during the period from 2000 to 2004, global CO2 emissionswere increasing at a faster pace than the highest IPCC SRES scenarioA1FI, otherwise known as high emissions scenario. Though thisapproach is four years old at the time of this writing and based on

odology (images: [18]).

Fig. 2. Change in mean summer temperature for the UK, 2050s and 2080s at 90% probability, high emissions scenario (adapted from [24]).


only a five-year trend, atmospheric CO2 emissions have trendedsteadily from this period and increased by almost 10 ppm [22].

Due to the expected longevity of buildings, designing adaptationfor the 2080s is useful. The 2080s provide us with the greatest rangeof climate possibilities to date. Designing for other climate periodssuch as mid-century can also be useful, similarly as there arenumerous different emissions scenarios due to the uncertainty ofeconomics, population growth and politics. For these reasons theIPCC will not assign likelihoods to their emissions scenarios and it islikely that theemissions scenarioswill be refinedandtrajectorieswillchange in the future as our understanding of probabilistic change inthe future will likely be updated [1]. This poses the question: shouldadaptation be implemented incrementally, e.g. every 50 years?

Using only the 90%probability is a slightly narrow viewof climatechange,notmaximising thepotential ofprobabilities, however in thisstudy it was necessary to simplify the impacts of climate change inorder to clarify and maximise the potential risk in order to testadaptationoptions for the climateprojections. In reality, for bothnewbuild and retrofitting, it is important to consider various probabilitiesand climate periods when designing for future climate. Differentfactors and even elements within a building may require consider-ation of different climate projections, as for example, a building builtwith the intention to be permanent should on the whole considerlong term change and extreme impact but within the building,specific elements may only typically last around 25 years, therefore

Hazard identification

Identification of consequences

Magnituconsequ

shorter climate projections are necessary for sizing the equipment orselectingmaterials [23]. Other factors such as client budget, buildingphasing, andvulnerabilitymayalso require themodellingofmultipleclimate change projections.

2.2. Oxford as a case study

The City of Oxford was selected as a case study for the SNACCproject due to its location in the southeast of England. The locationis particularly far from the coast, within an area of England pro-jected to feel the greatest temperature rise (Fig. 2) but alternativelynot subject to the extreme urban heat island effect felt by London.

2.3. Risk based framework for Oxford

With changes in the climate, there will inevitably be impacts.Impacts due to climate change can be either positive or negativedepending on many factors such as location and sector. Whenconceptualising how to adapt to negative impacts it is helpful tobegin with a risk assessment. Risk is the potential for damage tooccur. This can include both the damage to a building and thehealth of the occupants. In abbreviating a risk assessment strategydeveloped by the Department of Transport, Environment and theRegions (DETR) the following outlines a path (adapted from [25])for defining and assessing risk.

de of ences

Probability of consequences

Significance of risk

Fig. 3. Risk triangle (redrawn form [26]).


This risk assessment method can be applied to the climateprojections outlined in Section 2.1 or any other probabilisticprojection. Each step of the risk assessment method outlined aboveis applied to the hazards listed in Table 2 as an example, where 90%probability is applied to all projections as explained in Section 2.1.The risk triangle (Fig. 3), redrawn from Roaf, Crichton and Nicol[26], adds the additional dimensions of exposure and vulnerabilityto the DETR version and represents the three areas that whencombined can cause a home or occupants to be at risk. Adaptation isthe responsive action taken to eliminate or reduce the risk. If oneside of the triangle is eliminated the triangle cannot stand and therisk is therefore eliminated [7].

Considering the risk triangle (Fig. 3) and the method by whichdata is gathered for climate change modelling, i.e. hazard appliedwith probabilities attached, the risk assessment flow as describedabove is reworked where (1) a weather variable is selected to querychange, and (2) climate period, emissions scenario and probabili-ties are selected to identify the magnitude of the hazard (3).Identification and magnitude of the consequences (4) are furtherdeveloped through qualitative assessment of the exposure andvulnerability. Through thermal simulation modelling (at the centreof the risk-assessment methodology) of hazard, exposure andvulnerability the significance of risk (5) is then quantified.

2.3.1. HazardThe hazard is the potential climate change event. This is where

the climate change data from theUKCP09 is utilised. Hazards relatedto increased temperatures and increased precipitation can bedefined for varying spatial and temporal levels. Hazards are detailedfor the city of Oxford (Fig. 4) at the 25 km2 grid scale in Table 2. Evenat this scale basic impacts and risk can be theoretically defined.

Climate data can alternatively be downscaled both spatially(from 25 km2 to 5 km2) and temporally (from seasonally andmonthly to daily and hourly). The UKCP09 provides a processor forthis purpose called the weather generator. The weather generator,mentioned in Section 2.1, provides multiple opportunities foranalysing climate change data in detail for specific sites. Examplesinclude threshold detection and future weather year files fordynamic thermal simulation modelling. The future weather years

UKCP09: Climate period, emissions scenario and probability

Identif

co

Expos

MHazard identification (weather variable change selected)

Table 2Climate change data for Oxford, UK (high emissions scenario at 90% probability) [27].

Oxford 25 km2 2030s 2050s 2080s Positive

Daily maximum temperature e Meansummer increase

4.3 �C 6.7 �C 10.6 �C Shortene

Precipitation e Mean winter increase 21% 37% 61% Potentiato be storeductio

Cloud cover e Mean winter increase 3% 4% 4%

Solar radiation e Mean summerincrease

16 W/m2 23 W/m2 30 W/m2 Decreaseincreasecollectio

used for modelling in this paper cover the 5 km grid square shownover Oxford at the centre of Fig. 4.

2.3.2. ExposureThough the hazard can simply be seen by running a simulation

with future weather year files in any modelling software, it isimportant to define the risk and put it into the context of thelocation. Exposure can be analysed by detailing the local environ-mental features (LEFs) of a city, site or neighbourhood [28]. Forexample, locating the existing flood risk for a site or near a site canprepare a homeowner for potential flood risk. A small list of LEFs forthe City of Oxford is detailed in Table 3.

2.3.3. VulnerabilityThe impact of heatwave conditions on people can occur through

both physiological reactions to increased temperatures directly, e.g.heat stress and indirectly, e.g. reactions to reduced air quality. Manyheat-related deaths are in fact caused by heat (and pollution)exacerbating existing illnesses, specifically respiratory and cardio-vascular diseases [33]. As an example, during the 2003 heatwave,where there were between 2000e3000 excess deaths, air qualitywas the worst ever recorded in the UK [26]. Vulnerability can alsobe found in social isolation and mental illness [33]. Most literatureon age related vulnerability places the greatest risk age groupsoutside of the 5e64 age range, however many people within this

ication and magnitude of

nsequences (impact)Significance

of risk

ure Vulnerability

agnitude of hazard

Negative

d heating season, milder winters Overheating in homes and urban areas

l use for water collection e may needred to offset summer precipitationn

Exacerbation of current fluvial andpluvial flooding in areas, someoversaturated soils could causestructural damageIncreased need for electrical lighting,decreased solar heat gain and insolationfor solar collection devices

d need for electrical lighting,d solar insolation for solarn devices

Overheating in homes and urban areas

Fig. 4. 25 km2 and 5 km2 grids for Oxford [Map: [18], source: [27].


age group can have varyingmental and health circumstanceswhichcan increase their vulnerability to risk [33]. According to a study ofvulnerability to heat-related mortality in three Latin Americancities, the age group 0e15 years represented the smallestpercentage of deaths from 1998 to 2002. The greatest number ofdeaths was from the age group 65 and over. An example of thedistribution was 0e15: 4%, 16e64: 29%, and 65þ: 67% in Santiago[34]. In ages 65 and above Hajat, Kovats and Lachowycz [35] foundthat risk to heat-related death in England and Wales had a greaterimpact onwomen thanmen and that risk to cold-related death (notshowing as wide a gender gap as heat risk) provided much greaterrisk for all ages above 65 years. Vulnerability of occupants isexplored by modelling different age groups and family sizesparticularly through the occupancy patterns they are expected toexhibit, e.g. pensioners have a higher probability of being homethroughout the hottest part of the day.

Table 3Table of local environmental features for Oxford, UK (adapted from: [28]).

LEFs Oxford

Latitude 51�

Urban covera 29% urban coverageb

Elevation Highest: 170 m,lowest: 60 m

Fluvial flood risk [29] Flood risk existsLandslide potential [30] Medium/lowGeology (clay soil - swell/shrink potential) [30] HighWater stress [31] HighWind driven rain potential [32] Moderate: 33 < 56.5 L/m2/spel

a Urban cover refers to built-up areas, e.g. asphalt, concrete and buildings and hasmanycoverage percentage is based on a 10 km grid square centred over the city centre of Oxf

b The lower percentage of urban cover for Oxford increases the probability for a subururban heat island.

2.3.4. Current and historic risksThe UKClimate Impacts Programme has developed amethod for

using past and current weather events and impacts to understandpotential future impacts. This method is called the Local ClimateImpacts Profile (LCLIP). Most of the following events are from anLCLIP produced for the Cherwell District Council [36]. Within thepast seven years there have been three extreme summer eventswhich could have resulted in an overheating risk for homes in theCity of Oxford.

8e2003 Heatwave conditions across the county; also highozone levels measured e Oxfordshire reported as having someof the worst ozone levels in the UK

10e2003 Drought4e2006 Hosepipe ban officially announced (following 18 month

drought and three threats of implementation)

Hazard relevance

Temperature change and solar intensity changeTemperature increase, solar intensity increase and precipitation increaseTemperature change and precipitation increase

Precipitation increasePrecipitation increasePrecipitation decrease/ground moisture content fluctuationPrecipitation decrease and temperature increase

l Precipitation increase/wind speed change

implications for proximity to green space and urban heat island potential. The urbanord.ban area to be close to open green space, therefore reducing the potential impact of


7e2006 Heatwave conditions across the Country (twice inJuly)

7e2006 Storms across county with flooding and power outages.(40 mm in 2 h)

10e2006 Longest summer (warmest autumn) since 17thCentury

10e2006 Half of October’s rainfall average falls in a single day.(40 mm in 8 h)

12e2006 40% more rain than average falls in November buthose pipe ban cannot be lifted e still not enough water to replenishgroundwater source

1e2007 Hose pipe ban finally lifted after 9 months2e2007 Snow closes schools. (6 inches of snow in some areas)7e2007 Flooding throughout Oxfordshire.8e2007 Soils recover moisture after worst drought in 100 years6e2008 Flooding across Oxfordshire1e2010 250 schools across Oxfordshire close due to heavy

snowfall [37]4e2011 Driest March in 50 years across England and Wales e

projecting summer drought and hose pipe bans [38]

2.4. Defining existing suburban homes for modelling

The four home typologies (Table 4), detached, semi-detached,mid-terraced and purpose built flat, were selected because theyrepresent the four most common home types in England [39]. Formodelling purposes, the construction details of the homes (Tables 5and 6) are based on the standard dwelling configurations definedby Building Environmental Performance Analysis Club (BEPAC) [40]as these are well defined benchmark buildings for the UK standard.The constructions are described as post-1919, possibly built anytime between then and the early-1980s. The period from 1965 to1980 saw the most dwellings built than any other period. In addi-tion, the amount of flats built during that period is almost doubleany other period [39]. Furthermore, in agreement with theconstruction typologies defined by BEPAC, during the period from1965 to 1980, the most common construction was cavity masonry.Table 4 through 6 provide specific details for the homes, furtherdetails, including room sizes, opening sizes, and infiltration ratesused can be found in the appendix.

The occupancy patterns were applied to explore alternatevulnerabilities and impact of use on both overheating and spaceheating change. These varying occupancies make the homesincompatible for comparison. Just as the results of this study shouldnot be used in lieu of modelling any specific home in question, withall of its particular intricacies of construction and occupant profiles,the homes are not intended for ultimate comparisons, e.g., externalwall insulation is best used in home x and not in home y.

All homes have a west facing orientation in order to modela particular exposure scenario that can be problematic for both

Table 4Home typologies, home areas and occupancy patterns [40].

Home typologies % of householdsin England

Area Occupant variable

Semi-detached home 29% 84 m2 2 adultsb

Mid-terraced home 21% 74 m2 2 adults, 2 pre-schoolchildren

Detached home 19% 98 m2 2 adults, 2 teensPurpose built flat (2 bed) 17% 72 m2 Pensionersb

a The heating season was assumed similar for all four occupant sets: 1 October e 30 Aconstant through all climate change projections. This is justified by the responsiveness o

b Both the scenario of two working adults with no dependants in the home and pensioncommon occupancy type in England (36%) [39].

overheating and energy use. Homes that face west comprise almosta quarter of the homes in north east Oxford where the SNACCresearch will be focussed. The flat was positioned in the centre ofa block in order to increase its relevance, i.e., a centrally located flatcan represent a flat in a three storey block or a 30-storey block.Additionally, with increased storeys there are greater odds ofa central flat over any other position in the block. Fig. 5 graphicallysummarises the hazard, exposure and occupancy identifiers for thefour home types. Graphic details on the homes can be found in theappendix. The difference inwest facing and south facing was testedin the flat and the west facing home was found to have at most 22%more overheating hours throughout the home during the 2050sand require at most 24% more heating energy by the 2080s.

3. Modelling the risk of increased summer temperatures onexisting suburban English homes

Establishing the various risks as a result of the variables brieflyexplored in Sections 2.3.1e2.3.3 is important for theSNACCproject inevaluatingadaptationmeasures for thesuburbanscale;however, thispaper will focus directly on the overheating risk in the home. Asoverheating is amajor health risk, not only causing such problems asheat stress and stroke but also increasing vulnerability to air pollu-tion. Homes need to be built or retrofitted to accommodate potentialtemperature change and overheating risk [5,33,35]. Change intemperature also brings with it the possible impact of public uptakeof home air-conditioning. This has the potential to put a strain on theelectrical supply and increase domestic CO2 emissions counteractingtheCentralGovernment’s attempt to cutemissions80%by2050 [6,9].For these reasons this paper specifically focuses on the risk of over-heating in homes through an analysis of passive adaptation optionsthat canbeused tominimise theoccurrence of potential overheating.

3.1. Heating season energy reduction

All climate projections were modelled with the same heatingseason and no assumptionsweremade regarding a future change inthe heating season. Though the heating system in themodelwas setup to only heat to a set-point, regulating energy use, it is possiblethat future climate change will reduce the heating season, possiblythrough behavioural change, psychological and/or physiologicaladaptation, with effects on energy use. Table 7 displays the impactof climate change on the energy use required for heating eachhome.

3.2. Overheating in current and future climates

The future increase in temperature presents thehazard; exposureat the home level can range from lack of green space and trees, noshading elements, orientation and construction typology. The homes

Occupant variable details Heating patterna

Two working adults without dependants 0700e0900, 1600e2300One working adult with two children at homewith partner

0700e2300

Two working adults with two children in school 0700e0900, 1600e2300Two pensioners at home most of the time 0700e2300

pril. Additionally, though it would most likely change, the heating season was keptf the system to a set-point as opposed to continuous heating on at all times.ers fall under the category of two adults and no children at home which is the most

Table 5Construction typologies and elements [40].

Construction External walls Party walls Glazing Ground floor Roof

Semi-detached home 3 exposed sides 1 party wall 7 windows Non-insulated ground floor Insulated roofMid-terraced home 2 exposed sides 2 part walls 7 windows Non-insulated ground floor Insulated roofDetached home 4 exposed sides None 8 windows Non-insulated ground floor Insulated roofPurpose built flat 2 exposed sides 2 party walls 4 windows No direct contact with ground floor No direct contact with roof

Table 6Typical construction details used for the control model of each home [40].

Construction Materials U-value

External walls 105 mm brick e 65 mm cavity e 105 mm brick e 16 mm plasterboard 1.4 W/m2 KGlazing Single glazing in timber framing 4.3 W/m2 K (net)Internal and party walls 16 mm plasterboard e 105 mm brick e 16 mm plasterboard N/AGround floor Clay e 100 mm concrete e 5 mm carpet 0.75 W/m2 KInternal floors 10 mm plasterboard e 200 mm cavity e 20 mm timber e 5 mm carpet N/ARoof 10 mm plasterboard e 100 mm glass fibre quilt e loft space e 7 mm tiling board e 10 mm roofing tiles 0.35 W/m2 K

Fig. 5. The structure for modelling the risk of the selected four English home typologies.


are notably exposedwithout trees or other shading,west orientationand built to a poorly insulated construction standard. Simply thepresenceofpeople in thehomes signifiesvulnerabilitywhereassomeare obviously more vulnerable than others. Combining these threescenarios presents an overheating risk potential. CIBSE guide A [43]provides the overheating definition for living areas in the home: 1%annual occupied hours over benchmark summer peak temperatureof 28 �C; the benchmark temperature is 26 �C for bedrooms. Thisdefinition for ‘overheating’ is also used in a number of reports onthermal analysis in homes as can be seen in Table 8.

Table 7Heating energy use for the modelled homes over four climate periods. Averagedomestic heating energy use was derived from average domestic gas consumptionfor Oxford multiplied by the percentage of national average space heating energyuse [41,42].

Home typology Current climate 2030S 2050S 2080S

Semi-detached 10,447 KWh/yr 7673 KWh/yr 6463 KWh/yr 4737 KWh/yrMid-Terrace 7251 KWh/yr 5103 KWh/yr 4185 KWh/yr 2889 KWh/yrDetached 17,867 KWh/yr 13,177 KWh/yr 11,133 KWh/yr 8202 KWh/yr2 bed purpose

built flat3246 KWh/yr 1926 KWh/yr 1463 KWh/yr 802 KWh/yr

Averagedomesticfor Oxford

10,685 KWh/yr e e e

Alternatively, much research challenges the notion of simplyusingadefinition likeCIBSE’s andholds that theASHRAEdefinitionofcomfort, “that condition of mind which expresses satisfaction withthe thermal environment,” embodies the complexity of the issue ofthermal comfort and therefore overheating or discomfort thresholds[45,46]. Fig. 6 shows thechange in temperatureandresultantcomforttemperature as dynamically linked to the exterior conditions,specifically for free-running buildings (not mechanically cooled orheated) in Oxford for the four climate periods. The graph was

Table 8Overheating and other risk thresholds.

Study Definition Referenced in

Orme, Palmerand Irving (2003)

Overheating: >27 �C [12]

Hacker, Belcherand Connell (2005)

Heat stress dangerline: 35 �C [13]

Boardman et al. (2005) Risk of heart attack andstroke: >24 �C [45]

CIBSE (2007) Living area overheating:1% annual occupied hoursover benchmark summerpeak temperature of 28 �C [43]

[10,12,13,44]

TRCCG (2008) Recommended thattemperature above 30 �Cavoided [10]

Fig. 6. Potential comfort adaptation to a change in climate [27,47,48].


developed to specifically evaluate the comfort during the summerand tounderstand the comfort conditions of thosewhohave adaptedto a particular climate, therefore it is being used here to project thepossible adaptive capacity of occupants to the changing climate,suggesting that a current definition for overheating and comfortmaynot be the future definition for overheating and comfort [47].

For the purpose of this paper, in line with conclusions made byNicol, Hacker, Spires and Davies [46], we will not attempt to definea temperature below which all occupants are comfortable anda definitive number at which overheating will occur for theoreticalhomes and occupants but instead point towards the potential foroverheating, based on a widely used threshold. This potential foroverheating in the homesmust have a value in order to quantify theoutputs of the model and is suggested to be possible when theaverage whole home interior temperature is greater than or equalto 28 �C for any number of occupied hours. For individuals, thispotential for overheating could occur above 28 �C or below as canbe seen in Fig. 6. This method was used to simplify the represen-tation of the resultant effect of adaptation options on overheatinghours in the home. As these are highly speculative homes (thoughderived from typical examples) what is most important here whenthe adaptation options are tested is the relative change in ‘over-heating’ hours between projections and reference or adaptationsand not specifically the exact number of ‘overheating’ hours foreach. Table 9 lists the number of hours at which the interiortemperature is greater than or equal to 28 �C for the four homes.

As can be seen, the occupancy profile, specifically the hours ofoccupancy for eachhomehas amuch greater bearing on the potentialfor overheating as opposed to the space heating use for each home.Space heating energy use is more clearly linked with the number ofexposed walls (for heat loss) and floor area to lesser degree.

4. Review of adaptation options for minimising overheatingrisk

As is clearly seen in Section 4.2 the potential for overheatingshould soon be an issue if it is not already an issue for homes in

Table 9Annual hours greater than or equal to 28 �C averaged over the entire home for thefour modelled homes over four climate periods. These hours assume that individ-uals, when at home, will open the windows of occupied spaces whenever theinterior temperature increases beyond 22 �C. Section 5 elaborates on theseassumptions.

Home typology Occupant variable Currentclimate

2030S 2050S 2080S

Semi-detached 2 adults 1 59 164 625Mid-Terrace 2 adults, pre-school

children1 195 570 1548

Detached 2 adults, 2 teens 1 100 291 1089Purpose built

flatPensioners 12 474 947 1979

Oxford and the southeast of England. In order to passively reducethe risk of overheating in the home, adaptive changes will need tobemade to the home. Aswill be seen later, the risk of overheating insome of these examples cannot be fully eliminated through passivemeans alone.

For individuals to reduce or eliminate the risk of heat stress orworse in an overheated home there are adaptive steps (possiblyin this order) that the individual can take such as removingclothing (reducing clo-value), increasing hydration, openingwindows, turning off equipment such as lights that add tointernal gains, use water to assist the skin in thermo-regulationthrough evaporation, and seeking exterior shade outside of thehome. Sometimes an individual alone cannot do enough toreduce or eliminate the risk of heat stress. Further measures mustbe taken to prevent the home from overheating as quickly or asfrequently as it is projected to do so. In a number of countries theair-conditioner has become an important part of many homes[49]. Cooling your home could be as simple as buying a unit thatfits in the window but in order to avoid significant increases inCO2 emissions, stress on energy supply, occupant energy costs,and expelled heat further increasing the heat island effect,passive measures should be maximised to the fullest beforeresorting to active cooling.

Methods for cooling buildings can be summarised in four keyprinciples:

� Reduce external temperatures by managing the microclimate� Design to exclude or minimise the effect of direct solar radiation� Limit or control heat within the building (non-ventilation)� Design for ventilation

4.1. Reduce external temperature by managing the microclimate

This principle includes the design of all external surfaces and thenatural environment to impact the microclimate around thehome (Table 10). Being theoretical home typologies withoutspecific neighbourhood contexts, it was outside of the scope of thisstudy to detail the microclimate and the effect of such measures asreduction of heat island effect and evapotranspiration of trees,water bodies, etc [50].

4.2. Design to exclude or minimise the effect of direct solarradiation

Exclusion or minimisation of the effect of direct solar radiationin or on the building is done by limiting solar gain throughenhanced glazing, surface materials or shading elements (Table 11)(some of these strategies will overlap with microclimate). Thepurpose of this principle is to minimise incident solar gain onthe building fabric or penetrating through the fabric and to limit theimpact of incident solar radiation on the building fabric and theresultant heat gain (i.e. increased reflectivity).

Table 10List of microclimatic adaptation options with potential limitations and mitigationpotential [4,10,28,50].

Microclimate adaptationstrategy

Potential challengesor limitations

Mitigationpotentiald

Green surfacesStrategically plant trees,

vines or plantersaSpace limitations, climateappropriateness (water)

C

Façade integrated greencover or green wallsa

Change to street façadec C

Water bodies for evaporativecooling

Space limitation C

Grey surfacesIncrease roof and/or wall albedoa Change to street façadec CCool paving integrated with

sustainable urban drainageCost C

Green roof Roof slope andstructural loadb

C/H

a Overlaps with exclusion of sun (5.2).b There is a maximum slope of 45� on which a green roof can be placed, however,

as the slope increases, depth is reduced and methods of construction and drainagebecome more complicated and costly [51].

c It is possible that, in the interest of historic preservation, neighbourhood groupsor even local authorities may object to the alteration of the façade. This requires welldesigned and presented visualisations of the changes to groups in question and theexplanation of benefits.

d This denotes whether the adaptation option has the benefit of being a potentialGHG emissions reduction strategy when actively cooling (C) or heating (H) or both.

Table 12List of interior heat management adaptation options with potential limitations andmitigation potential [4,10,28,52].

Interior heat control adaptationstrategy


Mitigationpotentialb

Decreasing thermal transmittanceImprove u-values with wall insulation:Internal Change to interior space

& areaC/H

Cavity C/HExternal Change to street façadea C/H

Install double or triple glazing withlow-e coating

Cost C/H

Secondary glazing C/HImprove roof u-values with

loft insulationC/H

Improve roof u-values with green roof Roof slope andstructural load

C/H

Attenuation of thermal swings andcontrolled heat loss

Expose or introduce thermal mass onfloors and/or walls (location ofthermal mass is a highlysensitive issue)

Cost of introduction,user controllede must night ventilate

C/H

Roof pond Cost, structural load,user controlled

C/H

Occupant awarenessReduce internal gains:Install efficient lighting and appliances CInsulate hot water cylinder and pipes C/H


4.3. Limit or control heat within the building (non-ventilation)

The control of interior heat refers to how the building or usermanages heat within the building (Table 12). Insulation is addedbecause it is a typical measure for retrofitting and whether a homeis being retrofitted to reduce space heating demand or to adapt toa changing climate, insulation will play a big factor in the consid-erations of the retrofit.With regard to insulation, the control of heatwithin the building refers specifically to the wintertime benefits ofinsulation but insulation can also in some cases be used to decreasethe thermal transmittance into the building.

Table 11List of solar exclusion adaptation options with potential limitations and mitigationpotential [4,10,28].

Solar exclusion adaptationstrategy


Mitigationpotentialc

Direct shading and controlof incident solar gain

Double façade or roof(can be enclosed or hovering)

Cost, space limitationsor change to street façadeb

C/H

Overhang or balcony Cost, structural load CExternal louvered shutters

(potential to increase security)C

Façade integrated green cover Change to street façadeb CBrise soleil (potential PV integration) Change to street façadeb CAwning Change to street façadeb CReflective blinds CInstall double or triple glazing

with low-e coatingaCost C/H

Increased solar reflectivityIncrease roof and/or wall albedo Change to street façadeb C

a Overlaps with limit or control internal heat within the building (5.3).b It is possible that, in the interest of historic preservation, neighbourhood groups

or even local authorities may object to the alteration of the façade. This requires welldesigned and presented visualisations of the changes to groups in question and theexplanation of benefits.

c This denotes whether the adaptation option has the benefit of being a potentialGHG emissions reduction strategy when actively cooling (C) or heating (H) or both.

4.4. Design for ventilation

Thereare three typesof ventilationmethods forcooling (Table13):

� Natural ventilation� Advanced natural ventilation� Mechanical cooling (Some buildings may combine both naturalventilation and mechanical cooling into what is called mixed-mode.)

Summer outdoor kitchen for cooking Cost, spacelimitations, location

C

a It is possible that, in the interest of historic preservation, neighbourhood groupsor even local authorities may object to the alteration of the façade. This requires welldesigned and presented visualisations of the changes to groups in question and theexplanation of benefits.

b This denotes whether the adaptation option has the benefit of being a potentialGHG emissions reduction strategy when actively cooling (C) or heating (H) or both.

Table 13List of ventilation based adaptation options with potential limitations and mitiga-tion potential [4,10,28,52].

Ventilation adaptation strategy Potential challengesor limitations

Mitigationpotentiala

Natural ventilation/AdvancedNatural ventilation through

operable windows (typical)Security, noiseand air pollution

N/A

Heat induced ventilation(stack effect)

N/A

Operable façade e movingwalls and roof elements

Cost, reducedair-tightness

N/A

Ground or water tube connectedheat induced ventilation

Space limitation,air-tightness limitation

N/A

Ceiling fans CMechanical ventilationGround or water source cooling N/AAir-conditioning Cost, space limitation,

CO2 emissionsN/A

a This denotes whether the adaptation option has the benefit of being a potentialGHG emissions reduction strategy when actively cooling.

Table 15List of adaptation options modelled. All changes are applied to typical constructionand all changes are noted. The material descriptions for the typical construction arelisted in Table 6 in Section 2.4.

Option Adaptation description Details

1 Typical construction Includes occupants opening thewindows when the home is occupiedand the interior temperature is above22 �C. All following options include thisnatural ventilation feature, as it is assumedthat occupants would attempt to controltheir comfort in this mannera

2 Internal insulationretrofitb

Internal insulation, increased roof insulationc

and low solar gain low-e double glazing3 Cavity wall insulation

retrofitbCavity wall insulation, increasedroof insulationc

and low solar gain low-e double glazing4 External insulation

retrofitbExternal insulation, increased roof insulationc

and low solar gain low-e double glazing5 High albedo exterior Solar reflective (‘cool surfaces’) exterior

walls and roofc

6 Exposed thermal mass Mass on ground floor and interior of


4.5. Passive adaptation

As categorised in the preceding three sections above, thepassive adaptive measures can be implemented on varying scales;at the neighbourhood level measures can include cooler pavingsurfaces and planting trees. Neighbourhood adaptation can alsoinclude emergency cool spaces for heatwave relief. On the gardenlevel adaptation can also include trees for shading and waterbodies for evapotranspiration. This paper specifically looks atadaptation on the home level, for the building fabric level thatcould be considered simpler ‘every day’ retrofitting measures;measures that can be simply added to the list (or already on thelist) for the retrofitting agenda. Measures which were found tohave possible adverse effects on the wintertime efficiency werealso precluded from the study as it has been shown that spaceheating will continue to be the dominate space conditioningenergy demand for the UK throughout the rest of the century [9].These select measures which are tested in this study are listed inTable 14.

external walls exposed by removingcarpet and sheathing; no new massintroduced

7 Louvered shading onglazing

Louvered shading on typical single glazing.

a The 22 �C set point threshold is based on the CIBSE comfort temperature of 23 �Cfor bedrooms. It is outside the scope of this paper to test a number of ventilation setpoints but ventilation was found to be highly significant in reducing overheatinghours.

b The insulation retrofit options assume a ‘whole house’ retrofit with the inclusionof improved roof insulation and window replacement.

c The two bed flat does not have immediate connection with the roof, thereforethe roof related measure do not apply.

5. Modelling adaptation

5.1. Options for adaptation testing

Seven adaptation options were tested for each home typologywhere applicable. Further minor tests were performed in order tocompare orientation, low solar gain glazing against high solar gainglazing and ideal location of exposed thermal mass. Table 15 listsa summary of the primary testing options and further details of themethods used. Table 16 lists the detailed construction changes foreach adaptation option.

5.2. The effect of adaptations on the models

Fig. 7 shows amatrix of potential overheating hours as a result ofimplementation of all adaptation options on each home type foreach climate period.

Table 14List of passive adaptation options tested in the model with potential limitations andmitigation potential [4,10,28].

Passive adaptation strategy to combatrisk of overheating


Mitigationpotential

Natural ventilationOccupied day time ventilation and

night time ventilationSecurity, noise andair pollution

C

Decreasing thermal transmittanceImprove u-values with wall insulation:Internal Change to interior

space & areaC/H

Cavity C/HExternal Change to street façade C/H

Install double or triple glazingwith low-e coating

Cost C/H

Improve roof u-values with loftinsulation

C/H

Attenuation of thermal swingsExpose or introduce thermal mass

on floors and/or wallsCost of introduction C/H

Increased solar reflectivityIncrease roof and/or wall albedo Change to street façade CReduce solar gains through various

shading methodsExternal louvered shutters

(potential to increase security)C

5.2.1. Improved thermal resistivity of the building fabric (options2e4)

Three wall insulation measures were tested to establish themost effective measure for reducing overheating in the homes. Asnoted in Table 15, adaptation options 2e4 include increased loftinsulation and low solar gain double glazed windows. Fig. 8shows the change in overheating hours as a result of thedifferent insulation adaptation measures for the detached house.Externally applied insulation was found to be the most effectiveinsulation measure in reducing overheating hours against theother insulation options. The resultant effect on required spaceheating energy for the detached house is shown for comparisonin Fig. 9. When the number of exposed external walls is reduced,i.e., in the mid-terraced and flat, the benefit of insulation tominimise overheating is reduced to the point of actually adding tothe overall risk of overheating. This effect can be seen in Figs. 7and 10.

5.2.2. Increased surface albedo of the external fabric (option 5)This adaptation option included the improved reflectivity of

incident solar radiation for both the exterior face of the externalwalls and the roof. This method is often used in both modern andtraditional construction of homes in warmer climates to reduceinterior heat gains as a result of solar radiation on the exterior. Highalbedo surfaces have the additional benefit of reducing the buildingor surface’s contribution to the urban heat island effect and aresuggested to be an effective form of ‘geoengineering’ the imme-diate environment to reduce the impact of climate change andmitigate further change [53]. This adaptation will likely becomeincreasingly important in order to mitigate overheating in southEngland as solar radiation is projected to increase in the future(Table 2).

Table 16Adaptation changes to construction details. Specific changes to the construction are noted in bold.

Construction changes Material descriptions U-value

Option 2 Internal insulation added to external walls 105 mm brick e 65 mm cavity e 105 mm brick e 16 mmplasterboard e 65 mm internal insulation

0.30 W/m2 K

Low solar gain double glazing replace single glazing 6 mm glass e low emissivity coat e 12 mm air gap e 6 mmglass in metal frame

2.0 W/m2 K

Roof e loft insulation tripled 10 mm plasterboard e 300 mm glass fibre quilt e loftspace e 7 mm tiling board e 10 mm roofing tiles

0.35 W/m2 K

Option 3 Cavity wall insulation added to external walls 105 mm brick e 65 mm cavity filled withinsulatione105 mm bricke16 mm plasterboard

0.32 W/m2 K

Low solar gain double glazing replace single glazing 6 mm glass e low emissivity coat e 12 mm airgap e 6 mm glass in metal frame

2.0 W/m2 K


0.35 W/m2 K

Option 4 External insulation added to external walls 65 mm external insulatione105 mm bricke65 mm cavitye105mm bricke16 mm plasterboard

0.30 W/m2 K

Low solar gain double glazing replace single glazing 6 mm glass e low emissivity coat e 12 mm air gap e 6 mmglass in metal frame

2.0 W/m2 K


0.35 W/m2 K

Option 5 Solar reflective (high albedo) coating added to external walls No change in material - render surface applied with solarabsorptance value of 0.2

No change in modelSolar reflective (high albedo) coating added to roof No change in model

Option 6 Mass exposed on interior of external walls 105 mm brick e 65 mm cavity e 105 mm brick (exposed) 1.4 W/m2 KMass exposed on ground floor Clay e 100 mm concrete (exposed) 0.75 W/m2 K

Option 7 Louvered shading applied to existing single glazing Occupant operated e shading windows during daylighthours outside of the heating season

No change

Fig. 7. Annual occupied hours above or equal to 28 �C for each adaptation option, for each home typology, under each climate period modelled. Refer to Figure A.5 for detailedgraphs of the overheating hours for each home.


Fig. 8. Differences in the effectiveness of optional insulation measures in reducing overheating hours for the detached house. Note: 0 denotes the baseline; negative showsa decrease and positive shows an increase.


High albedo surfaces have a minor negative effect, causinga slight increase in space heating energy required due to loss insolar gain during the heating season. The reduction in overheatinghours, however, far outweighs the additional space heating energyrequired as can be seen in Table 17.

5.2.3. Increased thermal mass exposure on interior surfacesAs mentioned previously it is recommended for best results

that thermal mass is ventilated at night to release the excessheat that it has stored. This night ventilation is built into themodel’s 22 �C set point for ventilation, whereas it is assumedthat when and if the mass needs to be ventilated it will occur atthe appropriate time. Fig. 11 compares the benefit of thermalmass exposure for the four home typologies. The higher thethermal mass in a building, the more cooling the mass is able tostore and as a result reduce higher temperature swings. Inte-gration of thermal mass is complicated and must be carefullyplanned and integrated with other improvement measures. Ifmisplaced or misused, thermal mass has the potential toincrease hours of overheating and or increase space heatingenergy used as can be seen in Fig. 12 [54]. This characteristic ofthermal mass requires a level of user interaction, e.g. nightventilation which homeowners may not be prepared to take on,where beneficial interaction will require climatic awareness andplanning on the user’s part. One consideration for further

Fig. 9. Differences in the effectiveness of optional insulation measures in

research is whether the more vulnerable will be unable orunwilling to take up operational adaptation measures such asthermal mass and night ventilation.

Like the increased albedo, exposure of thermal mass on theground floor and on the interior of the external walls was found toincrease space-heating requirements (Table 18). This is a result ofintroducing mass in a home that is poorly insulated and leaky [54].In this case the increase in space heating energy is significantlyhigher whilst the decrease in overheating proved to be potentiallyinsufficient to justify the costs and energy use.

As only adaptations that could be applied to a large portion ofthe building stock were modelled, testing the introduction ofthermal mass where it is not already present or not feasible toinstall, e.g., adding mass to a ceiling where it does not exist, wasnot pursued as extensively as other adaptation options. With thisin mind however, a small test was performed to establish wherethe exposure of thermal mass might theoretically best benefit theflat, for example, in the interest of reducing overheating whilstreducing space heating energy use. This test used only theintroduction of thermal mass as an adaptive upgrade to thetypical construction, and is a variation on option 6. Fig. 12 graphsall thermal mass location options for comparison of reduction inoverheating or kWh of space heating energy required. All optionsreduce the hours of overheating; however some locations forthermal mass within the home are significantly more effective

reducing the space heating energy required for the detached house.

Table 17Matrix of change in overheating hours (h) versus change in kWh of space heating energy use (k) for the four homes as a result of high albedo surfaces. Note: 00 represents thecurrent climate and the other climates are represented by their decades respectively.

High albedo surfaces Detached Semi-detached Mid-terrace 2 bed flat

00 30 50 80 00 30 50 80 00 30 50 80 00 30 50 50

Per cent change h �40 �45 �39 �14 �40 �37 �32 �13 0 �20 �16 �4 �9 �17 �14 �5k 2 2 3 4 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 3 1 2 2 2

Fig. 10. Differences in the effectiveness of optional insulation measures in reducing overheating hours for the four house typologies for the 2050s. Note: 0 denotes the baseline;negative shows a decrease and positive shows an increase.


than others, i.e. ceiling mass. Thermal mass located on the wallsappeared to have a remarkably negative impact on the spaceheating energy use requirement, whilst only reducing over-heating hours by very little when compared to the typicalconstruction example. In addition, though the example of allthermal mass applications combined proved to be the answer forminimising overheating hours, the wall located thermal mass stillappeared to have a heavy impact on the space heatingrequirement.

Fig. 11. Reduction in overheating hours as a percentage of overheating hours for the typicacurrent climate.

5.2.4. Comparative performance of all adaptationsFig. 13 shows the resultant reduction in overheating hours (for

the entire day) for the detached house from the implementationof the adaptation options. Fig. 14 shows the reduction in over-heating hours as a percentage of the total overheating hours forthe typical construction. As is shown with the detached house, aswith all home typologies, the most effective measure proved tobe louvered shading by simply limiting incident solar gain onglazed surfaces (option 7). As in this example, user controlled

l construction of the modelled homes. There is no change in overheating hours for the

Fig. 12. Change in hours of overheating and kWh of space heating energy as result of varying the location of thermal mass exposure in the flat for the 2030s.

Table 18Matrix of change in overheating hours (h) versus change in kWh of space heating energy use (k) for the four homes as a result of exposed thermal mass . Note: 00 represents thecurrent climate and the other climates are represented by their decades respectively.

Thermal mass Detached Semi-detached Mid-terrace 2 bed flat

00 30 50 80 00 30 50 80 00 30 50 80 00 30 50 50

Per cent change h 0 �9 �8 �2 0 �4 �1 1 0 �3 �1 0 0 �3 �2 �1k 0 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 5 6 6 7 5 6 7 8


shading, as opposed to fixed shading can be the most beneficialin minimising overheating hours whilst in the winter, max-imising solar gain to reduce space heating energy use. Becausewindow size, orientation and type of shading selected can havewidely varying results, shading can be a highly specified adap-tation with numerous considerations for implementation anddesign.

Overheating throughout the entire day is considered for allhomes but the detached and semi-detached, due to the modelledoccupancy patterns (Table 4). As is shown through the modelling,occupancy pattern does not significantly change the ranking of the

Fig. 13. Differences in the effectiveness of optional adaptation me

effectiveness of the adaptation options but does however havea potential say in the decision of the effectiveness of particularadaptations. For example as can be seen through the contrast ofFigs.15 and 16, if the semi-detached homewhere to be occupied forthe full day (Fig. 16) as opposed to the off-work times of the day(Fig. 15), the occupants may consider thermal mass (option 6) to bean effective adaptation option, whereas in the off-work occupationof the home it appears to be less effective and even counter-effective by the 2080s. Increasing the albedo of the exteriorsurfaces (option 5) on the other hand appears to be almost equallyeffective regardless of occupancy schedule.

asures in reducing overheating hours for the detached house.

Fig. 14. Reduction in overheating hours as a percentage of overheating hours for the typical construction of the detached house. Where the current climate shows a 100% reductionthis is from 1 hour to 0 hours overheating.

Fig. 15. Differences in the effectiveness of optional adaptation measures in reducing overheating hours for the semi-detached house within occupied hours.

Fig. 16. Differences in the effectiveness of optional adaptation measures in reducing overheating hours for the semi-detached house throughout the entire day.


Table 19Package matrix showing which adaptation options are present in each package.

Adaptation option Package 1 Package 2 Package 3 Package 4

Internal wall insulationCavity wall insulationExternal wall insulationa U U U

Increased roof insulation U U U

Low-e double glazing U U U

High albedo exterior wall U U U

High albedo roof U U U

Exposed thermal mass U

Louvered shading U U U U

a External insulation is used in the package testing because it was found to be themost effective in reducing hours of overheating or, in the case of the mid-terracedand flat, caused the least additional overheating hours (Fig. 7).


5.3. Adaptation packages

This final section looks at packaging the adaptation options.Four packages were formulated for testing based on theoutcomes of the individual adaptation option testing phase(Table 19):

� Package 1: All adaptations options combined� Package 2: Wall retrofit only - this package assumed a retrofitwhere the walls are externally insulated with a high albedosurface and windows are replaced with low-e glazing and usercontrollable shading.

Fig. 17. Annual occupied hours above or equal to 28 �C for each adaptation package for eacgraphs of the overheating hours for each home.

� Package 3: Roof retrofit only - this package assumed a retrofitwhere in the case that a roof needed to be replaced, a highalbedo roof is installed and roof insulation is topped up orreplaced. In this case louvered shading is also added to theexisting glazing.

� Package 4: All adaptation measures (package 1) with theexception of thermal mass

Package 2 represents a ‘façade’ retrofit, involving externalinsulation on all external walls with a high albedo surface, replac-ing all external windows with low solar gain double-glazing andfitted external louvers onwindows. Alternatively one might chooseto only increase the insulation in the loft or roof, increase thealbedo of the roof through replacing the roof or applying an alter-native coating and install louvered shading on existing windowswith the ‘roof’ retrofit (package 3). External insulation is selectedfor the retrofits due to its performance as compared to the otherinsulation options. Table 19 lists specifically what adaptationoptions are present in each package. Where any elements are leftunchanged the typical construction is present.

Fig. 17 shows a matrix of potential overheating hours as a resultof implementation of all adaptation packages on each home typefor each climate period.

Table 20 organises the packages into a matrix indicating witha grey box which package is ideal for either reducing hours ofoverheating (h) or required kWh of space heating energy (k) foreach home under each climate period.

Clearly package 4 is the most effective option for reducing kWhof space heating energy for each home under each climate period.

h home typology under each climate period modelled. Refer to Figure A.6 for detailed

Table 20Package performance matrix.

Detached Semi-detached Mid-terrace 2 bed flat

00 30 50 80 00 30 50 80 00 30 50 80 00 30 50 80

Pack 1 h 5 5 6b 73b

k 281 216 197 151 242 187 169 129 186 141 125 92 12 8 7 4Pack 2 h Same as Pack 4

kPack 3 h /a /a Pack 3 is not applicable to

the flatk 2464e1326a

Pack 4 h 0 13 39 1 1 6 1 3 1 �10 0 4 7 4k

a Because the kWh space heating requirement difference for package 3 is so high it is assumed that this package would not be used, therefore it is disregarded as an optionand the difference in the hours of overheating is not calculated.

b The values for overheating hours in package 1 for 2050s and 2080s of the mid-terraced home are the hours above the most desirable option, package 3. The values foroverheating hours in package 4 are the hours above those of package 1.


The process of choosing the correct package becomes complicatedwhen considering the hours of overheating, where in most casespackage 1 appears to be ideal. When selecting the right package it isimportant to keep in mind that, as noted previously, space heatingwill remain the dominant load into the 2080s even when consid-ering a widespread uptake of cooling systems in homes [9]. Wherepackages are in close competition with another, i.e., in most casespackage 1 and package 4, the resultant increase (or penalty) ineither overheating hours or kWh is presented as a value. As anexample, one may prefer to select package 4 for the detached homewhere the penalty for selecting package 4 will result in a projected13 additional hours of overheating over best case scenario by the2030s. This may be the better choicewhen facedwith the penalty ofan additional 216 kWh of energy use for choosing package 1. Asanother example, selection of package 4 for the mid-terraced homefor the 2080s will result in the best possible kWh reduction anda reduction of 10 overheating hours over package 1.

6. Concluding discussion

Some common features among the English homes modelledwere that, among the individual options, shading the glazing fromincident solar radiation was by far the most effective in reducingannual overheating hours in all cases. Shadingwas followed by highalbedo external surfaces and external insulation (though theoverheating reduction difference between insulation options issomewhat negligible in some cases). The overall effectiveness ofshading and high albedo external surfaces would suggest thesignificant influence of solar radiation (specifically insolation) onoverheating in the future climate of England. Among the packageoptions, package 1 appeared to be most effective in reducingoverheating hours for most homes and climate periods. Althoughpotentially considered negligible, there was a slight increase inkWh of space heating energy required as a result. This increase inspace heating energy was caused by the thermal mass exposure, aspackage 4 did not use thermal mass and provided the best resultsfor reduced space heating energy use. Though the results are quiteclear on preferable adaptation options for the existing Englishhome, there were variations in the effectiveness of adaptationoptions between the climate periods. Selecting a number of climateperiods, scenarios and ranged probabilities, possibly through a planof phased adaptation over the life of the home could furtherimprove the outcome of the overall adaptation.

Though some adaptation measures were effective in reducingoverheating hours and evenmore sowhen combined into packages,no measures were able to entirely eliminate the risk of overheatingin the home. In some cases, especially in the 2080s, the external

temperature is much too high at times to be brought below the‘comfort’ level passivelywith themeasures tested. In this case activecooling such as fan-assisted ventilation, for example, may benecessary. Presented in this paper is however the ‘worst-case’ or‘extreme’ cases (high emissions scenarios at 90% probability),meaning that the passive measures could be taken now and anychanges to the house could always have built-in the adaptivecapacity toutilisewhatever active cooling systemis found tobemostappropriate when the time is necessary to take that step. If we areable to passively do what is feasibly possible to reduce the over-heating, as optimistically stated byCollins, Natarajan and Levermore[9], overall impact will result in reduced CO2 even after activecooling measures are integrated into the home.With the increasingpopularity of the passivhaus standard in the UK it is important tonote that testing and research by Passiv-On has studied the effec-tiveness of the Passivhaus standard in southern European locationssuch as Marseille, France. The Passiv-On project, funded within theIntelligent energy for Europe SAVE programme, is a project thatworked to promote the passivhaus standard (comfortable lowenergy homes) in warm climates. The success and failures of bothnew build and retrofit work carried out in these climates willbecome increasingly relevant to the UK as the climate changes andnow as we consider the impacts of climate change. Results of theirstudy showed that the high levels of insulation assisted in keepingthe building cool during hot periods of the summer and that reversecycle heat pumps used as active cooling could deliver a level ofcomfort (according to the Passivhaus Institut comfort criteria)without surpassing the Passivhaus energy demand limit [55].

The findings of this work would suggest that further work isneeded to provide detailed analysis of adaptations which arecurrently a part of every retrofit and newbuild, for example, variousinsulation types and the effectiveness of positioning, investigatingeven a combination of exterior, interior insulation, and exposedthermal mass on different wall orientations. The combinationsavailable for analysis are seemingly endless. Other suggested testswould include, comparing the results of double-glazing versustriple glazing and the various possible shading methods available.

Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the Engi-neering and Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC) for financiallysupporting the SNACC project, under Grant reference: EP/G060959/1. The authors also gratefully acknowledge the PROMETHEUS teamat The University of Exeter for their work in creating the futureweather files which were used in this research.

Table A.2Opening dimensions (adapted from [40]). All openings are listed from left to right as facing the façade. The first dimension is the horizontal dimension. Opening types that arenot what is listed in the header row are in parentheses as (w) ¼ window, (d) ¼ door, and (gl-d) ¼ glazed door.

Opening dimensions Front ground Front first fl. Rear ground Rear first fl. Side ground Side first fl.

Door Window Window Window Glazed door Window Window Window Door window

Detached home 0.80 � 2.05 2.12 � 1.07 1.02 � 0.81 2.12 � 0.81 1.80 � 2.10 1.58 � 0.83 1.58 � 0.83 1.63 � 0.58 0.80 � 2.05 0.74 � 0.89Semi-detached home 0.80 � 2.05 1.51 � 1.02 0.74 � 0.86 1.51 � 0.86 1.80 � 2.10 0.80 � 2.05 (d) 1.58 � 0.83 0.76 � 0.76 N/A 0.74 � 0.89Mid-terraced home 1.56 � 0.96

(w)0.80 � 2.05(d)

1.02 � 0.87 1.02 � 0.87 1.02 � 0.87(W)

1.80 � 2.10(gl-d)

0.76 � 0.76 1.56 � 0.96 N/A N/A

Purpose built flat(all 1 level)

N/A N/A 1.02 � 0.81 1.80 � 2.10(gl-d)

N/A N/A 1.30 � 1.00 1.30 � 1.00 0.80 � 2.05(entry)

N/A

Table A.3Occupancy details (adapted from [40]).

Room Heating set-point Infiltration rate Internal gainsb

Hall and landing 16 �C 1.5 ach NoneLiving 21 �C 1 ach People, television and lightsDininga 21 �C 2 ach People and lightsKitchen 18 �C 2 ach People, lights, cooker, hot water and refrigeratorBedroom 1, 2 and 3a 18 �C 0.5 ach PeopleBathroom 22 �C 2 ach People, lights and hot waterWCa 18 �C 1.5 ach None

a The flat does not include a separate dining room, bedroom 3 and WC. The Detached house is the only home with a WC in addition to the bathroom.b The internal gains account for significant occupancy or use patterns. Though there are lights in the bedrooms, for example, it is assumed that the lights are not left on for

significant periods of time.

Fig. A.1. Perspective image, site plan and floor plans of the modelled detached home (adapted from [40]).

Appendix

Table A.1Room dimensions (adapted from [40]).

Home room dimensions Entry hall Living Kitchen Dining Upper hall Bed 1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bath WC/Bath 2

Detached home 4.43 � 2.05 4.43 � 4.30 2.93 � 2.63 3.83 � 3.43 3.06 � 2.80 4.43 � 4.30 3.83 � 3.43 3.23 � 2.93 2.03 � 1.63 1.63 � 0.76Semi-detached home 4.73 � 2.03 3.53 � 3.53 2.53 � 2.03 3.53 � 3.53 2.26 � 2.03 3.53 � 3.53 3.53 � 3.53 2.33 � 2.03 2.33 � 2.03 N/AMid-terraced home 3.73 � 2.33 3.73 � 3.33 2.93 � 2.33 3.33 � 2.93 1.96 � 1.93 3.73 � 3.33 3.33 � 2.93 2.73 � 2.23 2.33 � 1.93 N/APurpose built flat 4.40 � 2.90 6.40 � 3.60 3.00 � 2.40 N/A N/A 4.00 � 3.00 4.00 � 3.00 N/A 1.60 � 1.60 2.40 � 2.10


Fig. A.3. Perspective image, site plan and floor plans of the modelled mid-terraced home (adapted from [40]).

Fig. A.2. Perspective image, site plan and floor plans of the modelled semi-detached home (adapted from [40]).

Fig. A.4. Perspective image, site plan and floor plans of the modelled 2 bed purpose built flat (adapted from [40]).


Fig. A.5. Annual occupied hours above or equal to 28 �C for each adaptation option, for each home typology, under each climate period modelled. Note: this table proportionalypresents the overheating hours for evaluation at the individual house level.


Fig. A.6. Annual occupied hours above or equal to 28 �C for each adaptation package for each home typology under each climate period modelled. Note: this table proportionallypresents the overheating hours for evaluation at the individual house level.


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Using UK climate change projections to adapt existing English homes for a warming climate

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