UNCLASSIFIED
Eighth Annual State of Modeling & SimulationEighth Annual State of Modeling & SimulationBriefing to Government and IndustryBriefing to Government and Industry
USSTRATCOMUSSTRATCOMMODELING & SIMULATIONMODELING & SIMULATION
OVERVIEWOVERVIEW
AGENDA
• USSTRATCOM mission and roles
• M&S Components
• M&S Current Technologies
• M&S Future Directions
THE MISSION OFSTRATEGIC COMMAND
Deter major military attack on theUnited States and its allies; and if
deterrence fails, employ forces
UNITED STATES STRATEGICCOMMAND
A War Preventer
l Deter major military attack, and ifdeterrence fails, employ forces
A Planner
l Integrate strategic deterrence policiesand requirements, thereby linkingplanning and execution. Provideplanning support to regional CINCs
An Advocate
l Primary voice for strategic forcestructure, modernization, and armscontrol implications
COMMAND RELATIONSHIPSWARTIME FORCES
COMMAND RELATIONSHIPSWARTIME FORCES
NCA
STRATCOM
TF LANT(COMSUBLANT)
ATLANTICFLEET
TF PAC(COMSUBPAC)
PACIFICFLEET
TF ABN COMM(STRATCOMM WG1)
TF ICBM(20TH AIR FORCE)
AF SPACECOMMAND
TF MED(SUB GROUP 8)
AIR MOBILITYCOMMAND
TF TANKERS(15TH AIR FORCE)
TF BOMBERS(8TH AIR FORCE)
TF RECCE(12TH AIR FORCE)
AIR COMBATCOMMAND
STRATEGIC COMMAND FORCESWARTIME POSTURE
(NOMINAL)
STRATEGIC COMMAND FORCESWARTIME POSTURE
(NOMINAL)
>200
AFANGAFRAF/ANGAF/AFRANG/AFR
TANKERs
200
200
150
5 55
SSBNs
~8 ~10
ICBM
COMMANDCONTROL
NMCC
ANMCC
NAOC
RECCE
∼ 10
∼ 5
~10
BOMBERs
∼ 20
21
∼ 56
??Arms ControlArms Control
Strategic Force ModernizationStrategic Force Modernization
Turmoil in FSUTurmoil in FSU
WMD Counter ProliferationWMD Counter ProliferationNuclear Stockpile
StewardshipNuclear Stockpile
Stewardship
Strategic DeterrenceStrategic Deterrence
Hard and Deeply BuriedTarget Proliferation
Hard and Deeply BuriedTarget Proliferation
POST COLD WARCHALLENGES
POST COLD WARCHALLENGES
StrategicSystemsStrategicSystems
WMD /Counterproliferation
WMD /Counterproliferation
Consequencesof ExecutionConsequencesof Execution
U. S. STRATEGIC COMMANDM & S MAJOR COMPONENTSU. S. STRATEGIC COMMANDM & S MAJOR COMPONENTS
CURRENT TECHNOLOGIESCURRENT TECHNOLOGIES
For Distributed Collaborative Planning/Analysis (DCP/A):
• Theater Integrated Planning System (TIPS)
• Common Operational Modeling,
Planning, and Simulation
Strategy (COMPASS)
• Collaborative Contingency
Targeting (CCT)
CURRENT TECHNOLOGIES(CONT)
CURRENT TECHNOLOGIES(CONT)
For Counterproliferation/Proliferation Path/NodalAnalysis:
• Counterproliferation Analysis and Planning System (CAPS)
CURRENT TECHNOLOGIES(CONT)
CURRENT TECHNOLOGIES(CONT)
For weapon lethality/target vulnerability analysis:• Air Force Research Lab’s Modular Effectiveness Vulnerability
Assessment (MEVA) - a deliberate planning tool
• Defense Threat Reduction
Agency’s Munitions Effects
Assessment (MEA) - a crisis
action planning tool
• Probability of Damage
Calculator (PDCALC)
CURRENT TECHNOLOGIES(CONT)
CURRENT TECHNOLOGIES(CONT)
For Consequence Analysis:• Hazard Prediction Assessment Capability & Fallout Assessment
System/Civilian Vulnerability Indicator Code (HPAC &FAS/CIVIC)
– Nuclear & conventional
weapons on NBC facilities
– Atmospheric transport
and dispersion
– Casualty prediction
Anthrax Dispersion in HPACAnthrax Dispersion in HPAC
MISSION ENVIRONMENTMISSION ENVIRONMENT
DII COEDII COECOMPLIANCECOMPLIANCE
DCP/ADCP/A
V&VV&V
VIRTUAL VIRTUAL COMMANDCOMMAND
CENTERCENTER
COMMONCOMMONDATADATA MULTILEVELMULTILEVEL
SECURITYSECURITY
FUTURE DIRECTIONSFUTURE DIRECTIONSIncreased fidelity in modeling:• Atmospheric transport & dispersion
– More accurate incorporation of meteorology
• Relocatable targets
• Underground targets in hardened geologies
• Population distribution
New Areas:• Strategic Exercise Simulation
• Information operations analysis
• Atmospheric transport and dispersion in urban terrain
• Secondary Nuclear Effects
