Defence Research andDevelopment Canada

Recherche et développementpour la défense Canada Canada

Utilisation of Soft Operational Research Methods within Capability Based Planning

Emile F PelletierStrategic Planning Operational Research Team

Defence Research and Development CanadaCentre for Operational Research and Analysis

1-09-2010

Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada

Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP Outline

• References

• Introduction

• the SC2RAT Tool

– Inputs

– Method

– Outputs

– Way Ahead

• Questions

Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada

Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP References

• Burton, R.M.H., Christopher, G.L., Chouinard, P., Kerzner, L.F., Maj Simonds, K., (2005). Procedures, processes and tools of capability-based planning: An outline for a Canadian approach. DRDC-CORA TR 2005-035, November, 2005.

• Christopher, G., Blakeney, D., Petryk, R., Taylor, B., Kerzner, L., Fong, V., …, Beard, A., (2009). Strategic capability roadmap version 1.0 analytic framework. DRDC-CORA TR 2009-013, December, 2009.

• TTCP JSA TP3 (2006). Guide to capability-based planning [Word document]. Retrieved from Public Scientific & Technical Information Online Web site. http://www.dtic.mil/ttcp/JSA-TP-3-CBP-Paper-Final.doc.

Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada

Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP Introduction

• Capability Based Planning process depends on harnessing ‘soft’ SME inputs into numeric data to use to produce an investment plan.

Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada

Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP Introduction

(Burton, Christopher, Chouinard, Kerzner, & Simonds, 2005)

Scenarios

Planning> req’ts

Management> affluences/deficiencies

Integration> plan

Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada

Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP Capability Planning

• Steps to Identify Capability Requirements

• Chief of Defense Staff Action Team Capability Assessment Matrix(CATCAM)

• Output: Prioritised list of Capability requirements, Capability goals (MoC)

(Christopher et al., 2009)

Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada

Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP Capability Management

• Map CF Force Structure to required Capabilities

• The Scenario Capability + Capacity Requirements Assessment / Outlook Tool (SC2RAT)

• A set of scenarios assessed with SC2RAT generates a list of Capability deficiencies.

• Concurrency analysis completes this list and allows production of a list of affluences.

• Consideration of capability deficiencies and development of possible alternatives

Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada

Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP Components of SC2RAT

• SC2RAT uses a mix of hard and soft elements

• Soft OR in SC2RAT:

– SMEs provide objective input

– Interpreting MoCs that come from planning

– Judgment to choose Force Elements to conduct required capabilities and assessing quantities of each FE required

• Hard OR in SC2RAT:

– Algorithms and various calculations

Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada

The SC2RAT ToolInputs

• Scenarios

– Scenario Analysis (CATCAM)

• Capability requirements

• Prioritisation of Capabilities (CATCAM scores)

• Measures of Capability (MoCs)

• Capability Framework

• Force Structure

Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada

The SC2RAT ToolInputs

Qualitative

Quantitative

Factual Conceptual

Capability FrameworkScenarios

Measures of Capability

CATCAM Scores

Force Structure

Subject Matter Expert (SME) input SME + OR Analyst Support input

Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada

The SC2RAT ToolMethod

• SMEs determine:

– Force Elements (w/ qty.) to conduct Capabilities

– Assessment across time-slices

• SC2RAT calculates:

– Capability Outlook: a colour-coded depiction of the overall ‘health’ of capabilities over time

– Capability Deficiencies

– Force Packages: list quantities of FEs required

Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada

The SC2RAT Tool Method

Snapshot from SC2RAT, summer 2010 version

Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada

The SC2RAT ToolMethod

• Soft aspects of SC2RAT method

– Group interpretation of MoCs:

• translate into quantifiable assessments which are quantities of FEs needed to conduct capabilities

– Working with conceptual inputs:

• Capability Framework

• Scenarios

• CATCAM scores

Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada

The SC2RAT Tool Outputs

• Capability Outlook to show results at a broad level

• Capability Deficiencies for consideration and development of Alternatives

• Force Packages for input into the Concurrency Tool to allow for identification of Capability affluences

Snapshot from SC2RAT, summer 2010 version

Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada

The SC2RAT Tool Outputs

Qualitative

Quantitative

Factual Conceptual

Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada

The SC2RAT Tool Outputs

Qualitative

Quantitative

Factual Conceptual

Capability Deficiencies

Capability Outlook

Force Packages

Subject Matter Expert (SME) output SME + OR Analyst Support output

Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada

The SC2RAT Tool Outputs

Qualitative

Quantitative

Factual Conceptual

Capability Deficiencies

Capability Outlook

Force Packages

Subject Matter Expert (SME) output SME + OR Analyst Support output

Capability FrameworkScenarios

Measures of Capability

CATCAM Scores

Force Structure

Subject Matter Expert (SME) input SME + OR Analyst Support input

Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada

The SC2RAT Tool Way Ahead

• Capturing discussions in SC2RAT (‘soft’)

• Allow the allocation algorithm to substitute different FEs for unavailable FEs (‘hard’)

Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada

Questions