Utilizing Natural and Working Lands to Combat Climate Change
Maryland Commission on Climate Change Mitigation WorkGroup6.23.20
Elliott Campbell, PhDDirector, Center for Economic and Social Science
Maryland Dept. of Natural ResourcesImage Source: Hurtt et al. 2016
Maryland GHG Projections from Draft Plan
Managing Forests to Capture Carbon
• Public lands: acreage certified under FSC and SFI (211,000 acres, have exceeded goal of 50% of state owned forest land)
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Management on Private Lands
Sediment Control
Stewardship Plans
Wildlife Habitat
Timber Stand Imp.
Tree Planting
GOAL
Planting Forests in Maryland
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Private Natural
Riparian Buffers
Reforestation
Afforestation
GOAL
MD DNR 2030 GGRA Plan Projections
Avg.
Annual
2020-
2030 Low
Avg.
Annual
2020-
2030
Medium
Avg.
Annual
2020-
2030
High
Avg.
Annual
2020-
2030
DNR
Target
2030 Low
(MMT
CO2e)
2030
Med
ium
2030
High
2030
DNR
Target
Forest Management, public
lands 1,500 2,000 3,000 1,600
acres per
year 0.02 0.020 0.021 0.020
Forest Management, private
lands 35,000 50,000 60,000 38,000
acres per
year 0.86 1.04 1.16 0.92
Planting Forests 2,000 3,000 4,000 2,550
acres per
year 0.28 0.32 0.36 0.30
Urban Tree Canopy 150,000 350,000 500,000
265,00
0
trees
planted
per year 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.0035
Avoided Forest Conversion 500 800 1,300 800
acres per
year 0.10 0.15 0.24 0.15
Total (MMT CO2e per year) 1.26 1.53 1.78 1.39
Forest Carbon Sink in Maryland
Largest carbon sink in Maryland but estimates vary widely
• Initial ~2009 estimate from EPA SIT tool used in our 2009 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Act
•11.72 million metric tons of CO2e per year from forests and urban trees
•Most recently available EPA SIT tool output using default values•1.48 million metric tons of CO2e per year from forests•1.67 MMT C02e from urban trees•Total 4.14 MMT CO2e including landfilled wood products, forest fires, ag. Soils, etc.
• Understandable that methodology changes over time, but variability in estimates doesn’t seem to reflect on the ground trends in forest cover and forest harvest
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
MM
T C
02
e p
er y
ear
Axis Title
Forest Carbon Storage from EPA SIT
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,0002
001
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
2006
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
2013
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
Acr
es
Estimated Change in Forest Area Over Time
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
19901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016
MM
T C
O2
e p
er y
ear
Net Sequestration from SIT Tool LU Module
Output of State Inventory Tool
Forest Carbon Sink in Maryland- USFS
• ~7 million metric tons of CO2e every year
• 2020 USFS Forest Carbon Inventory improved over past inventories, now agrees with UMD NASA Carbon Monitoring System
• EPA SIT will use this inventory in 2020 update
-7.4
-7.2
-7
-6.8
-6.6
-6.4
-6.2
-6
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Change in Forest Sink, 2006 to 2018
Many reasons why carbon sequestration has decreased 17% from 2006-2018• Loss of forest land (~1% loss over same time period)
• Invasive species (unknown impact)
• Pest and disease outbreaks (unknown impact)
• Deer herbivory (population slightly less than 2006)
• Changing Climate (impact unclear)
But…
• According to the USFS the largest impact is an aging forest- 78% of forest “mature”
• This can be addressed through forest management!
Forest Carbon Sink in Maryland
Forest Product Markets- Vital Piece of the Puzzle
• Forest products provide the economic incentive for private landowners to conduct forest management
• Challenging environment for forestry in MD– Closure of mills (Luke and others)
– Urbanization makes it less likely for forest management to occur
– Regulatory barriers (or perception of barriers)
• DNR is conducting a economic adjustment strategy for Maryland forestry
• New biomass to energy facilities would provide an important market for pulpwood
What is Possible? The Nature Conservancy Planting Opportunity Study
• Identified areas of unstocked forest, challenging pasture and croplands, other pasture lands, urban open space
• If all these lands were reforested (~1 million acres), would increase sink by 4.36 million metric tons CO2e per year
• 94% of the opportunities are on privately owned land
• ~1/2 opportunities on pasture land
• Silvipasture!
• Source: US Climate Alliance
Opportunity for SCALE: US Climate Alliance
The U.S. Climate Alliance is a bipartisan coalition of 25 governors cooperating to tackle the climate challenge.
▪ Improve inventory methods
▪ Identify best practices for conservation
and management
▪ Advance programs, policies, and
incentives to reduce GHG emissions and
enhance resilient carbon sequestration
▪ Integrate actions and pathways into
state GHG mitigation plans
Efforts to Improve Quantification of Natural and Working Lands Carbon Sinks
• Collaboration with UMD NASA Carbon Monitoring System research group
• MD participates in the Natural and Working Lands (NWL) partnership of the US Climate Alliance and has two forest carbon projects underway1) Analyze carbon and economic impact of forest management
over time. Partners- PA DCNR, USFS, American Forests
2) Annualize forest carbon inventories by combining NASA data products for carbon storage and sequestration potential with optical imagery of forest change. Project will generate uncertainty estimates and be used to annually update Maryland’s forest portion of the GHG inventory- Partners UMD, WRI, and DE NREC
Blue Carbon
Carbon storage and sequestration in the estuarine or marine environment• Coastal wetlands
• Submerged Aquatic Vegetation (sea grasses)
• Blue carbon is complicated• Highly variable rates of sequestration
• Must account for changing rates of accretion and possible loss due to sea level rise/erosion
• Must account for methane emissions
• Blue Carbon Initiative with UMCES, Restore America’s Estuaries and COMPASS• Identify research needs
• Highlight ongoing work
• Clarify how blue carbon fits into Maryland GHG reduction plan
• USCA Blue Carbon Modelling Project • Led by Duke University
• Partnership of MD, NC, VA, DE, NJ, NY
• Models impact of wetland change out to 2120 on blue carbon in coastal wetlands
• Preliminary results show a wide range of outcomes dependent on emissions scenarios
• Trillion Trees – UN Initiative signed onto by the US
– Legislation introduced in February that would set targets and provide support for reforestation and carbon sequestering harvested wood products
• Carbon Markets– Price was projected to increase significantly from airline commitments that
would have doubled voluntary market, now unknown due to COVID
– Historically Challenging in Maryland due to size of forest land holdings
– Several efforts to allow smaller landowners to participate- TNC Family Forest program, Lyme Timber Company, Chesapeake Bay Program pilot program in VA.
Opportunity for SCALE: Federal Legislation, Carbon Markets
