Vale Day 2019
December 2, 2019
Vale Day 2019
December 2, 2019 1
Vale Day 2019
CHRIS TAYLOR: Great community of companies, more than $1.2
billion worth of shares trade every single day from Brazil on
the New York Stock Exchange. In fact, Vale trades close to $20
million a day on the New York Stock Exchange. We’re very, very
proud of our relationship with Vale. Next year will mark, in
fact, 20 years of Vale on the New York Stock Exchange. So when
we welcome the team back next year, we’ll not only be informing
investors on what’s next at Vale, but we’ll be marking the 20th
anniversary of the company on the New York Stock Exchange. So,
without further ado, I’d like to welcome CEO Eduardo Bartolomeo
up to the stage. Eduardo, thank you.
EDUARDO BARTOLOMEO: Good morning, everyone. It’s okay here?
Okay. First of all, thanks a lot for being today here with us,
to listen to our narrative, our history. As well, I hope you
have nice holidays. Well, 2019 for sure has been the most
difficult year for Vale in its history, with the tragedy of
Brumadinho. We lost colleagues, friends, and community members.
In this Vale Day, my first as Vale CEO, I would like to ask you
a moment of silence in respect for the victims in their
memories. We’ll show a little video now.
[Video playing]
EDUARDO BARTOLOMEO: Thank you. We will never forget Brumadinho.
For that, myself and my team, we are committed to building a
much safer and more reliable company. Since I took over Vale’s
leadership, three words have guided me, and I’m very insistent
on repeating. It’s people. It’s safety, and it’s reparation.
Those three words, they have guided us to design the roadmap
that will lead, in our view, for the de-risking of Vale.
The first stop of this journey is the full reparation of
Brumadinho. Today we have already 400 people directly involved
in this reparation with an executive directly reporting to me.
The second part of this journey is to assure that we operate
under the strictest safety standards, that we guarantee our dam
integrities and asset integrities of the other assets of Vale.
Third, we will bring production, but in a sustainable way. And
finally, we will allocate capital, in the most disciplined way,
as you’re going to see later in the presentation.
By the way, the presentation was designed on those four topics
because we understand, talking to you during this period that
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the main question around Vale, around Vale’s performance is how
are we going to de-risk Vale? So, you’re going to see the blocks
of the presentation will follow that.
Secondly, I would like to call your attention for two words
that we hope and they will repeatedly be said here, I believe,
during the presentations. First one is listening. Second one
is execution. Vale is well known for its extreme capacity to
execute. We are doing things in a faster way, at a faster pace.
But we have to improve a lot our ability to listen.
So those two things together can create a better company. With
that said, I would like to invite Marcelo Klein, the director
that I just mentioned, that is responsible for the reparation
efforts. And he will detail to you how this thing is evolving.
Thank you. Thanks.
MARCELO KLEIN: Thank you, Eduardo. Good morning, everyone. Our
mission at Vale is the full reparation of Brumadinho, the
reparation of the damage caused to the people and territories.
We have structured our reparation actions inspired by the United
Nations guiding principles on business and human rights.
There is the 31st principle that says that business enterprise
must establish operational level mechanisms to guarantee that
the grievances that come from the communities where we have
operations are treated, addressed, and based on engagement and
dialogue. So, we really pay a lot of attention to that, to how
can we improve our listening skills?
I brought you here a simplified version of a typical weekly
schedule, my own schedule, what is a typical week for me. My
week starts on Monday, with meeting with Eduardo, our CEO and
executive directors, when I have one hour to talk about how
reparation is evolving. What are the critical issues for the
week? What are the medium and long-term risks?
And I also ask for help and support from other functions
represented there in that meeting, IT, procurement, legal,
corporate social affairs, and so on. So, I have all Vale there,
welcoming me and putting all the resources available for
reparation. That’s very important. Along the week, on Tuesday,
for example, I have meetings with prosecutors and other public
authorities. There are a lot of issues to discuss.
On Wednesday, I have discussions with the fire officers, just
remembering that you’re talking about 270 fatalities, and we
still have 14 victims who are missing. So, for those families,
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it is still very important to keep the rescue operations going
on. And this rescue operation has been lasting for 10 months,
for more than 300 days now.
On Thursday, we’re meeting with the families, the
representatives from the families of the victims. We have a
huge agenda to cover as well. They bring a lot of demands to
us. And we’re also discussing the construction of a memorial,
so we need to listen to them, to how they want us to address
that.
So, this is an illustration of how we wanted to put that
concept, carrying it forward in our reparations. That social
dialogue and social listening drives our reparation efforts.
To talk to you a bit more about what we are doing for reparation
of Brumadinho, we have organized our main actions in four main
pillars. And I’m going to talk some more details about them.
The first one is restoring the livelihoods and the dignity of
those affected. The second one is the economic and the non-
economic compensations. The third pillar is restoring the
productive capacity of affected areas. And the fourth pillar
is restoring the environment. I’m going to give you some more
details on how we’re acting in each of those different pillars.
The first one, restoring the livelihood and dignity of affected
people is the most important one. We have to understand that
we have a framework of grief, sorrow, mourning, so that demands
a lot of sensitivity from our side. We need to be very sensible
in the way we are talking to people.
So, having those people allowing us to get close to them,
sitting side by side, listening to their difficulties is a big
privilege for us. In fact, they talk about the memories of the
people they lost in Brumadinho. They share with us their
concerns and fears about the future. And for sure that helps
us to develop a very deep empathy with their grief.
So, as a natural consequence, reparation becomes a personal
matter. It has been a huge learning for us, sitting side by
side with the families of the victims, trying to build up the
restorations of their lives, something very important. By
welcoming the families, by providing information, care,
attention, and all kinds of resources and service to those
families, we want to guarantee that they’re going through
probably the most difficult moments of their lives with dignity.
And as we’re talking about sorrow and grief, you need to pay
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attention to details. The reparation can be divided in two big
issues. We’re talking about the physical stuff and the emotional
ones. So, the physical side will take care of water, food,
toilets, and healthcare, and housing. That’s the easiest part.
But when you talk about emotional issues, things are much more
complicated. So, for reparations and mental health, and the
psychosocial report to give to the victims and families of the
victims is very important. We understand and we follow all the
technical backgrounds on those disciplines that were provided
from expert teams from United Nations.
And we also recognize that this is one of the most challenging
areas, how to guarantee that people will be recovering,
psychologically speaking. So we also recognize there is too
improvements to be captured in that area.
One example on those details that we need to take care, in one
of those meetings, the families came to us, saying, “Vale,
please change the color of the buses that provide the commuter
service, picking up and dropping off the employees every day,
from home to work, and back to home, because for widows, for
wives, for mothers who lost their sons, it’s very difficult to
see the buses going through the city, and that reminds them of
the huge loss they had.”
So, we are doing that. We are changing all the colors of the
buses. And we also suggested to them to change the routes of
the buses, avoiding those streets where several families of the
victims live. So, things that to many people sounds like details
become critical or very important to them. And you can only
capture that when you exercise good listening.
Our second pillar talks about economic and non-economic
compensation. Economic compensation is very important but it
is not enough. So let us first talk about why it is important.
It’s important because it helps restoring the normality of the
lives of people as much as possible.
So the collapse of the dam happening January 25th, and February
the 20th, you have the signing of our first big framework
agreement that provided emergency financial support to all the
citizens in Brumadinho and all the inhabitants, along with the
Paraopeba river that lives in 1 kilometer from one bank and the
other bank of the river. So that is a huge help, lasting for
12 months, from February until next January.
And it’s already covered 108,000 people, and we have spent—we
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have applied more than 1 billion reais with that emergency
help. Last week we have renewed that agreement for 10 months
more by using different eligibility criteria, more concentrated
on those territories that were dramatically affected, and
reducing the amount paid for those who were not directly
connected in the affected areas.
On April 5th, we have signed another important agreement,
framework agreement with the Public Defenders that was covering
all the material and the moral indemnifications for the
families. So, we have established that, using very fair and
competitive criteria, conditions to restore the houses, the
means of living, if they have stopped having - interrupted
their sources of income we also are restoring. So, per those
agreements, we have already 2,300 people benefited from them.
And in June, we carried out the third big framework agreement
that talks about labor, reminding you that from the 270 victims,
250 were workers, so it’s basically a labor tragedy. So, we
also discussed with the government prosecutors, the labor
prosecutors about the conditions and the details for the labor
indemnifications. We have more than 1,500 people already signed
those agreements.
And for the 250 families of the victims, of the workers, 244
have already signed agreements, showing that we’re really
providing a fair and competitive package of indemnification.
Besides the economic issues, we have also signed 22 other
agreements with different public agents, that are related, for
example, to the water quality monitoring, to rescue and care
of animals of fauna, to finding new sources of water, like
drilling wells in critical areas, so that we can compensate for
the possibilities of taking water from the river for a limited
period of time, and also some other measures to increase the
quality of our operations.
So again, we are here talking about construction, joint
construction with different stakeholders. By the end of this
year, we will be a total of disbursements and general expense
related to the reparation of Brumadinho, it amounts to $1.6
billion. We stress again that numbers are not the most important
figure, but they are key elements as well to make things happen,
and that we can faster try to get back the normality of the
area.
Our third pillar talks about the restoring the development of
socioeconomic capacity. Once you have provided the rough stuff,
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the main stuff for people to recover, how you start to think
about the future. And this socioeconomic capacity, you have to
think about individuals, communities, entities, and
governments.
At the individual level, we are providing a full reparation
support program, mainly for those who have signed the
indemnification agreements. And once they have received a
considerable amount of money, they get financial planning
education, so that they make better choices on what they do
with the money and how they restore the conditions of their
lives.
We also provide supports on real estate acquisition for small
agricultures and how they will resume their plantations, and
also for those people who run small businesses, we also provide
advisory package supports for them. At the community level, we
are trying to sponsor. We are in fact sponsoring many projects
to reconnect the people as a group.
So, we are sponsoring programs related to productive
backgrounds, community backyards, and gardens, and community
culture, handcraft workshops, so all different kinds of
activities that put the people from the communities together,
so they start to reconnect among themselves and find back the
power of the collective. It’s very important. And talking about
entities, we are also providing and discussing with several
public actors what can be done in order to improve the quality
of the population. For example, with the secretary of health,
of social assistance, of tourism, of the Municipality of
Brumadinho, we are providing training of people, resources, and
offices so that they can provide better services to the
community, to the population.
And if the government that like to reinforce that we take part
of Aliança for Brumadinho. It’s a group of several multinational
and national companies that are taking actions to help
Brumadinho. They wanted to leave a legacy for the long term,
so they are also sponsoring and supporting different
activities.
And as our fourth pillar, I want to talk about the—
[Video playback]
Okay. This video talks about the fourth pillar. That is the
environmental recovery. So those are actions related to -
since the very beginning there was a big concern on how you can
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prevent the environment damage to go on, to avoid all the
sediments that we spread to go to the river. So, we have put
in place a lot of engineering structures to avoid sediments to
be carried out during the wet season.
We have heavy rains from November to February. And we started
to have those rains. We have noticed that those apparatus are
working very well, so that we can—while we are cleaning the
area and removing the sediments, we need to avoid the sediments
from going back to the river. We also have actions related to
the protection of the springs of the river, of re-vegetation,
of whole sets of actions to guarantee that we’re restoring the
conditions of the environment, and the fauna as well.
Well, finishing my presentation, I’d like just to reinforce
first that we are really taking social dialogue and listening
as a key driver for reparation, and we understand that this
legit makes our action in the territories. We also have a strong
and bold presence on the ground. We have more than 200 people
working every day in Brumadinho, spreading along different
areas, talking to the community every day and taking care of
those demands, and also providing fastly a fair and competitive
reparation through indemnifications so that the people affected
can quickly restore as much as possible the matters of their
lives. Okay. Thank you very much. I’m going to now hand it back
to Eduardo.
EDUARDO BARTOLOMEO: Okay. Thank you, Klein. Well I think you
could see that reparation is happening at a fast pace, but much
more importantly, with quality. But I think we need to go beyond
and build a better Vale. Those two new pillars they were already
announced. I think Barcelona, first time we mentioned that is
the pillar of safety and operational excellence. The second one
was the new pact with society. The formal one was presented
here in New York and in London in the last year, is well known
by you, is the flight to quality, is the transformation of base
metals and the capital allocation.
We would like to go now for the first two. They are what we
call the quarter cross. They will make Vale a better company.
And we will start with the safety and operational excellence.
I think Vale has an ambition and we have to search that is to
be one of the safest miners in the industry. So, for sure we
need to talk about governance, about processes, about people.
And one of the first decisions that we took with support of our
board, is to create a C-level function to deal with that. We
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had some reference around the industry. And we created this
safety in operational executive officer. We invited Carlos
Medeiros, a well-rounded executive from manufacturing to run
it because around safety we see another pillar that is the
operational excellence. With that said, I’ll ask Carlos to come
here and explain how he’s going to achieve this dream and
objective. Thanks.
CARLOS MEDEIROS: Good morning. Following Vale’s decision to
strengthen its governance on risk management and safety, this
office was created. I lead Vale’s second line of defense, and
I report directly to Eduardo Bartolomeo, Vale’s CEO. It’s
important to clarify that my compensation package is not tied
to any operational target whatsoever.
Also, it’s also important to clarify that my team and I have
the full authority to stop any given operation, whenever
necessary. In order to avoid another major unwanted event, this
office has been organized around four areas, first one tailing.
We have to ensure that our dams are safe and comply with the
international standards.
In asset integrity our assets are well maintained and safe to
operate with. Operational excellence is about our VPS, the Vale
management system that will be the vehicle that will sustain
all the changes going forward. And the health, and safety, and
operational risks to enhance the safety culture and also map
all the risks around the company.
So, we believe that every accident is preventable. And as such,
every action that we’ll be taking is to build a safer and more
reliable company. So there will be a few—there will be some
milestones that will be achieved in the next couple of years
that I would like to share with you.
So global risk assessment is about using our very comprehensive
methodology for hazard identification and risk assessment in
all of our operations. On the tailing management system is to
build a TMS, a tailing management system, in line with the best
international practices. VPS revised and relaunched—that’s the
Vale management system that has been revised and more than
60,000 people trained so far to use the VPS as a means to
support all the ongoing transformation.
And strengthening our global maintenance structure is about
implementing one single maintenance strategy to guarantee our
asset integrity. Governance plays a fundamental role in
accident prevention. This is why this slide is showing our
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governance before our previous and our current governance.
Our board has approved a new risk policy. And since then four
executive risk committees have been created. We believe that
with this configuration we can monitor risks in a very—in a
much closer way. And also, it allows information to flow very
openly at all organizational levels. As far as geotechnical
structures are concerned, we have chosen to adopt a different
model, a model that has several redundancies in it. This is by
design.
And let me walk you through this slide. So, starting on your
far left, the first two boxes, they belong to our first line
of defense which is our operation. So, the very first box on
your left, that’s the geotechnical operations team. They own
the risk. They operate the asset. And they are overseen by the
second box, the geotechnical support team.
Then there comes the second line of defense, the one I lead as
another layer in this governance. Then we have the independent
board committee for dam safety that reports directly to our
board. So, this committee is built with external advisors that
support us with our structures. And then we have the third line
of defense, which is our internal audit.
So, on top of all this, we have two external layers. The first
one is the companies that work with us on a continuous basis
to certify the stability of our dams. And the second one is the
companies that also work with us on a continuous basis, but
they report to the public prosecutors. So, all in all, we have
seven instances where safety and operations of our geotechnical
structures are discussed to maximize safety. This goes way
beyond the traditional three lines of defense model used in the
industry.
So, this slide shows our plans for de-characterizing nine
upstream dams similar to the one at Brumadinho. The yellow
stars there, they show the completion date for the containment
walls for the most critical structures. De-characterizing them
is a very complex process that encompasses several steps.
So, as a matter of fact, the 8B dam, the one at the top, has
been already fully de-characterized, and the area it used to
occupy has been returned to society. Actions taking place as
we speak, so companies have been hired, people mobilized, so
we can meet the planned timetable for that. There is a video
that you watch that will walk you through the—will help you
understand the de-characterization process.
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[Video playback]
Before I conclude, I would like to leave with you three key
messages. First one is in order to de-risk its business, Vale
is building an independent and strong second line of defense.
The second message is risk and safety is at the very center of
every decision we are making at Vale. And the third one is a
strong and robust tailing management system is being put in
place. I will hand over now to Marcello Spinelli, who will
present how Vale will treat the remaining dams going forward.
Please.
MARCELLO SPINELLI: Good morning. In addition to risk management
and also the de-characterization of the dams that Carlos just
said, we’ve been investing in alternatives for tailing dams.
But I’m the operator of Iron Ore. I’m the first line of defense.
Now I want to say that I’m really committed to avoid the use
of dams. We want to change this.
How we are doing this? Well, 2014, the capacity of production
with dry processing method was 40%. This year, it reached 60%
with the dry processing method. And we’re going to reach 70%
in 2023. In the northern system, we’re going to reach 100% in
two years. And as we have a strategy to blend products in China,
you know very well about this, using the high grades, high
products, high-quality products from the north, blending with
the southern products, we can reduce the necessity of wet
processing in the south.
That’s the main strategy, but we still have a remaining 30% of
the production using dams. So, what we are doing to avoid the
use of dams. So, this is our new information here. We’re
anticipating $1.8 billion to invest in filters that we can
separate the tailings from the water, reuse the water, and have
the dry stacking of the tailings.
This is a process that is under construction for the main sites,
like Cauê, Conceição, and Brucutu. But we still have a remaining
14, 15 production use wet processing. So this another important
information here. We just bought this year the New Steel
Company. This is a company that used the method of dry magnetic
concentration. We even don’t use water to separate the ore from
the tailings.
We’re going to be the first in the industry that is going to
use, on a scale basis, a process that will use this technology
in 2022. And if we succeed, we’re going to close the gap of the
remaining 40%. So, I think what is the main message here? We
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want to avoid the use of the dams, and we are committed to make
that happen.
And the future of the iron ore operation will be without dams.
Now Eduardo, please come to the stage again.
EDUARDO BARTOLOMEO: So, as you could see, I think we have
effective actions towards what we believe is an ambitious plan,
an ambitious goal, but we’re effectively fixing our governance,
resourcing and teams. We’re effectively decommissioning the
dams as fast as we can. We’re effectively moving to a safer way
to operate. But that brings us to the second pillar that I
mentioned earlier. Being safe is key, but it’s not enough.
Society has demanded from Vale, from the industry as well,
after Brumadinho, a new way to create and share value.
So, we see this as ourselves being an enabler, a development
beginning with the local territory, up to the society. We need
to look at where we operate and how we impact the whole. As you
remember, last year we announced several goals, most of them
about environment, the last one about the social development
focus in Brazil, and on climate change, on energy, water, and
forest.
But as I said to you, we need to move further. We need to go
beyond. People are expecting much more. So, with the commitment
of our board listening again to stakeholders, we did a very
bold change in our goals. We understand that being in a mining
company, in a supply chain that has the steel industry behind,
it’s a huge contributor to the carbon emissions.
Luciano is going to come in a little while to explain how we
will lead the transition to a carbon neutral mining industry.
We have assets that nobody has. And actually, about listening
sometimes, you need to talk as well. We have a lot of our clean,
we have huge bases of clean energy, a huge footprint on the
first station, water, as Spinelli just mentioned, on the right
processing. So, we can and will lead the transition to carbon
neutral mining.
And importantly, I’ll come back later to explain this sixth
goal that we created. There is a roadmap. We mapped all the
gaps that we have around ESG. And we are dealing with it. And
we did a roadmap and a plan to eliminated that. But for that,
I would like to invite Luciano to go in each of those dimensions
and explain, how are we going to get there?
LUCIANO SIANI: So, we put a lot of effort in thinking about how
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can we go beyond simply fixing Brumadinho, repairing and
improving safety? That’s the baseline. That’s not enough. So,
we need to go beyond. So, everyone is talking about purpose for
corporations. Everyone is talking about climate change.
Everyone is talking about sustainability.
So should we just jump in the bandwagon and do what everyone
is doing? Well we realize that we can lead. And that’s the key
word for today. We can lead because we are endowed with certain
assets and the position on our products to lead the way. Of
those six goals here, in three of them at least, we believe we
can be different from anyone else.
The first one is climate change. We are announcing today that
we’re going to become carbon neutral by 2050. Others have done
that. We’re announcing today that we’ll be compliant with the
Paris Agreement. Others have done that. This implies a twofold
reduction. Instead of 15% to 16% reduction of CO2 emissions
till 2030, we’re going to do around 30%.
So where are we different? We’re different because we do have
the products to help our customers reduce their footprint. We
have the high-grade iron ore. We have the pellets. We have the
nickel who will electrify the world. So, we will establish a
scope three steelmaking and shipping target, ambitious one, to
help our customers make that transition. In that we’re
different.
And we will develop, as a business opportunity, products to
cater to their needs. And Spinelli will describe to you the
opportunity in metallic products and the technologies we’re
using to that.
The second pillar, we believe we can also lead is in energy.
And why is that? Because we’re endowed with a footprint, in
Brazil, in Canada, in Indonesia. And today, 60% of the power
that Vale generates is already self-generation and it’s already
renewable.
And we are now committing to go to a hundred percent globally
until 2030. And by 2025, we’re going to be a hundred percent
self-sufficient, renewable power generation in Brazil. So, we
believe also we have a unique position in that. The other pillar
that we believe we are unique is forest, as Eduardo mentioned.
I don’t know if you know about it, but we already protect and
preserve a million hectares of native forest, and most of it
in the Amazon. How much is a million hectares? This is about
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170 times the size of the Manhattan Island. It’s about three
times the size of Long Island, which is 120 miles long. It’s
about the size of the State of Connecticut.
And we will increase this by 50%. That’s the goal, to increase
recovery and protection of areas by 50%. We are in the Amazon.
We have the largest iron ore mines in the world within the
Amazon, and we’re doing this. Finally, when we go to the
socioeconomic contribution, we want to go further. We’re going
to go beyond simply corporate social responsibility and paying
our taxes. And we want to act as a true development enabler.
And I’m going to show you a video about the things we’re
starting to do in Itabira. Itabira is the city where Vale was
born 70 years ago. And its mines will exhaust in 15 years. And
we’re already making bold plans to leave a true legacy for
Itabira. So, jumping straight to the video. Here we go.
[Video playing]
This was done in consultation with society. This has been an
aspiration for them for a long time. And even the architectural
designs are very bold. So, this will lead a lot of self-esteem
and will make a true impact in the vicinity of the city of
Itabira.
Okay. So, we will lead in many things. However, we heard you
and we know that we have gaps, especially in governance. We
talked about ESG, but in governance, we made this survey to
identify the gaps. And Eduardo, back on stage will give you an
idea of how we are—some of them which we’re tackling.
EDUARDO BARTOLOMEO: Thank you Luciano. Well, as you saw, I
think we have the chance and we will do it. But the sixth pillar
is key to, I would say, amalgamate these decisions. We talk
to investors, shareholders, opinion makers, NGOs. We map the
gaps. We already are acting on them. Of course, they run through
the three, the ESG.
40% are in G, 40% in S—sorry, in E. And some in the social
part. Just to give you some flavor, those things are already
undergoing. On the social side, the new gender balance. Vale
is no different from several industries. It has a low gender
balance, so we need to double that.
We have a goal to double from 16% to 26% by 2030. On the
environmental side, it’s certifying all of our operations in
ISO 14001 that deals with operational excellence towards the
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environment. On the governance side, we are establishing the
audit committee on 2020.
On the human rights that goes back to the social, we engage
in a very interesting process and have a public consultation.
We advise the policy, going back to the fact that talking is
better. So, it’s a good decision that we made. But I would like
to finalize here with a very important thing. And I think it’s
new, in the sense that we will be the big three miners that are
going to put ESG on their long-term compensation.
I think we might say, “Look, these guys are looking for 50, are
looking to 30. So, let’s put your money where your mouth is.”
So ESG is a governance gap as well. It’s being asked for us to
do it. And it will align those ambitious goals together with
that.
And for that we are glad to tell you that yesterday we launched
a transparence portal that shows this action plan, to be exactly
as we have been saying, give each time more transference. So,
I’ll invite you to have a quick view on how it works. And later,
please go online.
[Video playing]
Okay. Now let’s shift gear a little bit to the other three
pillars. Just to recap, I think we will make strides on
reparation for sure. We are doing it. We’re improving
effectively our governance about safety. And the impact of
society is embedded already in our actions and goals.
Now Spinelli will come and discuss how are we going to bring
back our flexibility, our competitiveness, but not that only,
but how we’re going to behave ourselves in the future. What
opportunities do we have? Later, Mark Travers will come and
explain how our work at base metals is being dealt with, the
transformation and the opportunities that arise from that.
And last, Luciano is going to come and wrap up, how are we
going to allocate capital? What are the options, opportunities
we have. In the end, I’ll come back and do a wrap-up. Okay,
Spinelli, please.
MARCELLO SPINELLI: Thank you, Eduardo. Well business strategy
for iron or is about de-risking. And if you want to talk about
de-risking, we need to talk about the resumption of operations,
of capacity, and about the cost level of 2018. That was the
best in the world.
Vale Day 2019
December 2, 2019 15
But nevertheless, this is a mantra today. I’m really committed,
and also our team, really committed to people, safety of people,
and asset integrity. Well, talking about resumption of
operation. After Brumadinho tragedy, you know very well we’ve
been talking about this through the year, we lost 93 million
tons of capacity.
During the year, we reestablished a lot of the operations. We
still have 40 million tons of capacity that still needs to come
back. So, we are planning to go back, come back with 15 million
tons next year, and another 25 million tons in 2021.
It’s important to understand that the way we’re going to return
is divided in two main phases, just to simplify the process.
The first phase is about returning with mechanical dismantling,
without an impact in the operation of the dams.
When you do this, we can get the volumes back, but not the
quality back as you used to have. So, it’s important to
understand capacity means quality and volumes also. The second
phase is related to the improvement of the dams. When we improve
the dams, we can get the wet processing, the quality, and the
end of the process is to use the blast for the mining process,
and you get the efficiency back.
So that’s the roadmap for the return of the operations. It’s
very important to say that we’ve been through a phase that we
need to assess all the risk we have in our dams. I want to
point three cases that we’ve been—that just happened two months
ago. And today we have an update about this.
Two months ago, we had a problem with a big operation, ferrous,
that we found a problem in a permit. So, we stopped operation.
It’s a risk assessment. And now we reestablished the operation
last Friday. One month ago, we found a problem, our team led
by Vale found a problem in Itabiruçu dam that is related to
Itabira operation.
So, we decided to assess, to improve the assessment, the
investigation for that dam. We have good news. We are
anticipating part of the production that we are delaying. So
that’s an impact that is positive. But based on assessing new
problems, if you need to go further and understand what is
going on, we can decide, myself, my team, Carlos’ team, to make
it happen.
Today just happened another case. In Laranjeiras dam, that is
for Brucutu operation, the last week we found, using analysis
Vale Day 2019
December 2, 2019 16
of satellites, we found that there’s a crack, a small crack in
the top of the dam. So, my team called me, actually, this
morning, called me and Carlos’s cell. We’ve got to stop the
operation. We’ve got to reduce 60% of the production.
We need another one month to check it out, what is going on.
And after one month, we can return. So that’s the kind of
decision we’re going to face during the year. And that’s very
important to say that it’s all related to safety. And after
that, we can return the operations with volumes and quality.
So, let’s talk about what is expected for capacity, the next
year and the next years. So, this is the production for next
year. We expect for production a number between 340 and 355.
And in two to three years, we can reestablish the capacity of
the operation, capacity that we had in 2018.
But the important message here is that value over volume is a
key strategy for Vale. If we don’t have the necessity to supply
the clients, in terms of quality or in terms of volumes, we can
adjust the production to feed the necessity, the right necessity
for the market. So, this is a brand-new number that is new for
you.
Another information here that we have, the production for
pellets next year, we are estimating 49 million tons of pellet
production. Another important information, this is an annual
number and we are returning gradually. So, the first half of
next year will be impacted, we need to restore the BRBF quantity
in China. We sold more than we produced in this year.
So, we have to recover the quantity there. And also, we have
this evolution of quality process during the year. So, first
half it’s unbalanced, if you compare to the second half of the
year. It’s another important information for you.
Well let’s talk about competitiveness. So, I want to share in
three steps here. Let’s talk about the cost, divided in three
phases. So, first one, C1, the cost from the mine to the
Brazilian port. We expect to reach again in four years, four
to five years, 13 to 13.5. That’s the same cost that we were
running last year.
Why are we going to do this? First one. If you return to the
operations, we can dilute the fixed cost. It’s really directly
linked. The second lever here is about efficiency. So, we’ve
been investing a lot in digital transformation, automation,
autonomous track. So, we’re going to reinforce.
Vale Day 2019
December 2, 2019 17
It’s my challenge, my job here, to make operations more and
more efficient. And I want to emphasize one thing here. This
is negative here. We’re going to increase our cost because we
are using filters to make our operations safer, without the use
of the dam.
But we want to offset this increase of cost using the efficiency
that we have in our operations. So, this is a long to midterm
view of what we have in our operations. The second part of the
cost is about the freight. So, this is good news. We are on
the right truck.
You know very well about our strategy to have big vessels. The
Valemaxes is going very well. You know also very well that we
can reduce 40% of the emissions, using the Valemaxes compared
to Cape Size. And the freight in midterm, long-term, will be
around 16.
Well next year, specific, we have the IMO regulation. Also, you
know very well about this. And we need to use the low sulfur
bunker. Today the spread between low sulfur and high sulfur is
about $200. What we are doing to offset this problem?
We are using the scrubbers. Scrubbers is a technology that you
can use the high sulfur bunker and reduce this gap. Another
possibility, supply and demand of low sulfur bunker can be more
balanced, and the price of low sulfur can go down. But in this
case, this year, 76% of the fleet will be with the scrubbers
installed. And in two years, 96%, 99%. So that’s the way we see
the freight.
Another component of our efficiency and competitiveness is
about the premiums. So, this is something really tricky that
we need to go. This is a complex slide. I want to walk through
them. Just to remind you, you know very well about this, that
the premiums is a function of two margins, two industries, and
the coke and coal price.
This is a table that you compare the 65 index and the 62 index,
and the spread between them. If you have steel margins going
higher, our clients are stimulated to use better ores, high-
quality ores to make the production more efficient. And if you
combine this with the higher cost of energy, they can save more
if they use a high-quality ore.
So if you see this table, what happened last year was the right
side and the upside here, premium spread about 22%. And what
happened this year was the opposite. So, the middle of this
Vale Day 2019
December 2, 2019 18
year was on the lower side, the left side. If you walk through
what happened this year, just to remind you know very well
about this but remember that we had a problem with the balance
of supply and demand after Brumadinho and also, we had problems
with the Australians, that they had problems with weather.
And the index went up. When the index went up, we invited other
competitors to go to the market. The concentrates in China,
other concentrates from other places in the world, they went
to the market. Steel price declined. First, trade war. Second,
China boosted their production to fight against trade war. And
the margins just narrowed.
So that’s the end of the game of this year. Now what we have,
what is going on, the margins are coming back, not at the level
that happened last year. So, we are something between the 12
here. And we see that the model is going really well, and this
is trying to explain the model. Long term, what we see that the
margins will stabilize in something of the middle, and the
price index can be something between 60 and 80.
Well to summarize this, what you see, our business is still a
strong business. In 2018 our EBITDA break even the cost of the
three components that’s just mentioned, was 28.5. And what we
see next year, we’re going to go back to 28 to 30, if you
compare to all the initiatives that you just mentioned.
And if you consider $60 per ton, the lower cost that we
forecast, this is a business that we have 50% of margin. So,
it’s a strong operation. Well, let’s talk about the future,
what we see in the future. Marcelo just mentioned that we are
going to be—our clients are clamoring for solutions about
emissions.
In Europe they are really under pressure. The cost of the CO2
there is already $30 to $40 a ton. So what we are doing to face
this? We are the best company in the world for iron ore to face
this challenge. We already have a great portfolio of quality
products that we can face this.
This is an example. Today, if you simulate what is the impact
of our product in the production of our clients, we can save
30 million tons of CO2 today, just using the best ores in the
world, like Carajás fines. It’s about 9% of the emissions, of
the emissions is Scope 3, what we call Scope 3.
We have in our portfolio more than 85% based on high-quality
products, and you know very well our portfolio. I want to just
Vale Day 2019
December 2, 2019 19
emphasize here the GF88 is a new product. This is a ground
Carajás fines that we are doing grounding in China to supply
the necessity of pellet feed that you are expanding pelletizing
plants in China. So, we don’t need to use water, just grounded
and supply them.
This is a market of 30 billion tons of pellet feed that we are
going after that. This year probably we’re going to supply 5
million to 7 million. We are just launching this product this
year. And we can go beyond. And that’s what Luciano mentioned
about metallic.
Well our clients are struggling about how can it be reduced?
They have problems to end of capacity in some part of their
assets. They need to achieve the new goals about CO2. What do
they have in place? HBI is an example. HBI Brazil will now,
with the pre-sal we have a lot of natural gas. How can you use
these industrialized plants in Brazil, and use natural gas to
transform iron and reduce iron, using the HBI technology?
That’s a possibility. Bring the clients to Brazil. It’s like a
pelletizing plant of the future. We can go beyond in the chain,
and bring them to talk about that. So, we establish a lot of
conversation with our clients to bring the technology, the
supply, and the location.
Second alternative here is about what we call green pig iron.
We already have in place, in house for 15 years the Tecnored
technology. We just did a trial, industrial trial to produce
the pig iron. Pig iron can be used in the furnace during all
the chain of our clients.
If you compare here the effect when you do, to make the
technology, the pig iron with the Tecnored, using the biomass.
We just tried using 50% of biomass and 50% of thermo coal we
can reduce 50% the emissions of our client. And we are working
hard to design something that we can use 100% of biomass with
our clients to supply them in the new kind of technology.
So, and I’ll say more. We have other things that are coming.
And then we have huge, a lot of people, technical people design
new products to fulfill this kind of solutions. Something will
be coming in the future. So, just to wait one more minute to
summarize what we are talking here. Well first thing, we have
to understand that the return of our operations is something
that we need to do step by step, safety first, every time.
If you find something, stop. Go deeper. Check and return.
Vale Day 2019
December 2, 2019 20
That’s the mindset. That’s what we said. That’s what Carlos
said. We need to understand that you’re going to decide and we
will be on top of this. Every time we decide something, it’s
because we are leading this.
Second, information. We’re going to return our efficiency,
definitely. We have many things, many works to do, despite the
return of the volumes, but it’s obviously to return to the
volumes but respecting the value over volume for sure.
And thirdly, I can say that we are ready now to face the
challenge of our clients considering the CO2 emissions, all of
the effect of the pressure of the society. And we can say more.
We’re going beyond, join the chain. Bring your other
technologies, and be really close to our clients to solve their
problem.
No I call my friend here, Mark, to continue with the base metal
strategy.
MARK TRAVERS: Thanks, Marcelo. Good afternoon, everyone.
Marcelo just concluded his presentation by speaking about some
of the opportunities we have with our iron ore products in a
greener future. I want to talk to you today about some of the
opportunities we have in the nickel business.
We’re in the middle of the journey of the turnaround of the
base metals business, a transformation in the business. And
there is also an incredible opportunity here as nickel plays a
key role in the EV and renewable energy driven world. Nickel
is poised for a dramatic change in its market.
Nickel in the electric vehicle is a key commodity that will
improve the performance of the battery and will improve the
cost. It will enable the mass adoption of the electric vehicle.
I want to talk to you a little bit about what we see in the
market. Of course, with the mass adoption of the electric
vehicle, we see incredible increase in demand for nickel.
I want to talk to you a little bit about what’s going to happen
in the supply of nickel to match that demand. Currently, we
have an excess of supply of what we call class one nickel, high
purity nickel. Right now, we have high inventories, and that
type of nickel is going into supplying the electric vehicle
market, and the nickel sulfate.
However, that won’t last. It won’t be enough, come two, three,
four years down the road. What we’re going to need to see is
Vale Day 2019
December 2, 2019 21
laterite ores being processed, primarily through high pressure
acid leach technology. It’s a technology that our industry has
not been quite successful at.
And so, we have a clear challenge in our industry to meet the
demand through this type of supply. Overall, as we look forward
over the next few years we see the tightening of the supply-
demand metrics, and we see a trifurcation of the market. We’re
going to see separate supply-demand dynamics for class-one
products or high-quality nickel in the stainless-steel
industry, and finally the battery industry.
And I’ll talk to you a little bit now about how we’ve developed
our commercial strategy to meet these developments in the nickel
market. Vale has incredible strengths in the class-one market.
We have a broad range of high purity type products in different
forms, that can be used in many different applications.
It’s a part of our industry that hasn’t been strong recently
because of excess supply that I mentioned earlier, that is
currently going to the battery industry. Obviously, that’s
going to tighten. And it’s going to be our strategy to recover
and to strengthen our market share in this industry.
We want to be exposed to the LME pricing on this LME deliverable
nickel and play the dynamics that will play out in the premiums
as the demand for this type of product increases. We will look
for selective opportunities in the EV market, as well as the
stainless-steel market.
In the stainless-steel market, we have opportunities with
robust potential returns to expand our operations, for example,
in Onça Puma. In the battery industry, we will be selective and
look for opportunities. I will talk to you a little bit about
a greenfield project in Indonesia which is well suited for the
batter industry.
But we can also play the game, as the market tightens and the
premiums increase, and as the demand increases for battery
products, our powder products are very well suited for
batteries. And if the market demands it with better premiums
for the batteries, then we have the opportunity and the option
to shift over to that type of market.
As I mentioned, base metals is in a journey to transform its
business. We have not been a reliable operator, and in fact,
this year we are suffering from issues with our assets. We need
to invest in our assets and become a safe and reliable operator.
Vale Day 2019
December 2, 2019 22
We’re spending a great deal of effort and resources in our
asset integrity and also bolstering our preventative
maintenance programs. Another key component of the
transformation is the investment in our replacement lines in
Canada.
Currently we have very significant investments in the Voisey’s
Bay underground mine and the Copper Cliff Mine extension in
Sudbury. It demands a very high amount of capital in the next
two to three years. But it’s very important to say that we will
be cash flow positive in this period, this transitional period.
And to secure that, we initiated and announced a nickel hedging
strategy which will help secure our cash flows next year at
good prices. As we move forward and as we solidify this
transformation, we have options for growth, which are primarily
in Indonesia at the current moment, and I’ll talk to you about
that in a moment.
But as we move through this period of transition, we see robust
cash generation opportunities in our business. To secure the
future and secure the optionality for growth in Indonesia, we
have our contract of work which will expire in 2025. And we’re
working hard to secure that extension, that time.
We just announced the signing of a heads of agreement with the
state-owned entity Inalum, to meet our divestment requirement
in Indonesia. This will be a clear milestone in our path to
extending that contract of work in 20125, and it brings along
a very important strategic partner in Indonesia, where we’ll
see a lot of that growth occur which I referred to earlier as
the HPAL projects to supply the batter industry.
Just a little bit on the opportunities we have within our
business portfolio. Our Sorowako processing facility has been
a very successful operation for decades, and we have the
opportunity to expand that. We have a current project that
we’re looking at to expand by another 10,000 tons of ferro
nickel.
We also have two greenfield projects. It is very important to
be very clear here. While we will maintain 100% interest in the
mines in Indonesia, we will look to bring in partners in these
greenfield projects to de-risk the project and to ensure that
we will not be funding at a Vale level, these projects.
All of these projects on this page will be funded at the PT
Vale Indonesian subsidiary level, and will not demand cash
Vale Day 2019
December 2, 2019 23
resources at the parent level. So what does all of this mean?
I’m going to talk to you a little bit about the production
numbers for base metals.
These numbers do not include the production from Vale New
Caledonia. And Luciano will speak to you in a few moments about
why that’s the case. As I mentioned, we’re currently struggling
with our production, but we are investing in our assets and we
do see improvements coming, but we are currently producing at
a rate of about 210,000 tons per annum, not including New
Caledonia.
We see the opportunity to increase very quickly up to 240,000
tons, as we bring online some of these investments in North
America, in Canada, as well as the opportunity to bring on a
second furnace in Onça Puma, which is an excellent project. In
the future, as we bring on-stream the Indonesian growth
projects, we see opportunities to grow up to 360,000 tons.
Just like nickel, there’s great opportunities for copper in
this electric vehicle and the renewable energy world. In
addition to the traditional industrial applications of copper,
we see tremendous opportunities for copper in the EV engine,
as well as in the renewable energy industry, just as the mines
in copper are depleting, and the grades are decreasing.
So, we see we have a lot of faith, incredible opportunities in
copper. I want to talk to you a little bit about our growth
opportunities in our current portfolio on copper. We are
currently producing around 400,000 tons per annum. And in the
short term, we have the ability in 2021 to get up to about
430,000 tons, as we increase production in our Canadian
operations, as well as our Sossego mine.
Our Salobo 3 growth project will start to come online and ramp
up in 2022, 2023. And we’re going to see a very significant
increase in production coming from the Salobo 3 at that point.
And in the future, I’ll just highlight a few opportunities for
us.
Last year at Vale Day, we talked to you about the Victor mine
in Canada. It’s a mine that sits alongside the Glencore Nickel
Rim Mine. And we’re jointly studying the opportunity for a
joint development of this mine. It’s going very well, and we
expect that we’ll be making a project sanction decision in the
second half of next year.
We also have the LMO project in the Carajás region of Brazil,
Vale Day 2019
December 2, 2019 24
which has the ability to bring on another 60,000 tons. And
again, the project decision will be the second half of next
year. And finally, I want to highlight an incredibly large
project that we have been exploring in Indonesia called Project
Hu’u on the island of Sumbawa.
It’s a copper gold project which has the capacity to produce
at current estimate, about 250,000 tons per annum. So, in
summary, we’re turning around the base metals business at a
time when we’re getting ready for the market opportunities. If
we secure this transition, and we will, we will see a period
of robust cash generation and returns in the future.
At this point, I’ll pass it back to Luciano.
LUCIANO SIANI: So, where does all of this lead us? Where is the
opportunity? What’s the equity story for Vale today? Why should
you consider investing in our company? You notice probably that
we spent 70% of this presentation talking about safety,
reparation, sustainability because we are very mindful that
there is a cloud of risk hanging on top of Vale.
And we’ll spare no efforts to reduce that risk, to the benefit
of the valuation of the stock as well. So, three key things I
would like to call your attention to. The first one, under the
value opportunity, is the business.
If you summarize, if you look at this chart, our core businesses
in the next three years, and please bear in mind we’re talking
about three years, 2022 is a key year for Vale. All the three
businesses are going to be in much better shape. Iron ore
production will come back.
We’ve been saying since the very first, the aftermath of the
Brumadinho tragedy that it would take two to three years to
normalize. It will take two to three years to normalize, but
it will normalize. Remember we said S11D would take four years
to ramp up? The fourth year is next year. And in the plan we
have 91 kilotons of production from S11D.
So, these things will happen. We are obsessed with creating the
conditions for this to happen, and the competitiveness will
come back.
Nickel, as Mark showed you, will also improve production. We
will slowly bring back the production we took offline. And
copper, you are seeing the growth. So, if you do the math,
between 10% to 30% growth from today’s position in all of our
Vale Day 2019
December 2, 2019 25
business, and at a low cost. We always show you the Capex
numbers. Here are they again. The long-term capital
expenditures for Vale continues to be seen at a level of $4.5
billion.
So, there will be no offense towards the cash flows from excess
capital expenditures. But you notice also that next year and
the year after, you have $5 billion U.S., and that’s different
from last year. And why $5 billion U.S.? Because of the
investments in filtering and in dry stacking that Spinelli
mentioned that are being front loaded.
They would spread out over 10 years. They’re going to be
concentrated in order to eliminate tailings dams and their
consequences in the short term. But the big picture doesn’t
change from ‘22 onwards.
So that’s the first opportunity. The business will improve
dramatically over three years. The second opportunity is what
is outside of the core business. We do have a lot of cash flow
drains outside the business. And we will attack them vigorously.
The first ones are Moatize, Vale New Caledonia, and the other
JVs. These other assets have bold plans to attack them. Let’s
start with Moatize. Look at what is written on the left-hand
side, a short-term shock will lead to strong gains and near-
term cash flows.
The reason why we messed up Moatize this year is because the
ore body was not sufficiently drilled, and it disappointed us
in the sections we’re mining today. It’s very poor quality.
So, we’re changing completely the mine plan. It will reduce,
yes, the life of mine. It will reduce, yes, the reserves. You
saw the impairments.
But we’re going to go after the good stuff, and especially the
coking coal use are also going to go up. So that’s the left-
hand side of the plan. On the right-hand side of the plan,
we’re talking about the process plant. The process plant was
not made to treat the ore that we were taking from the ground
this year.
So, we will stop the process plant for three months. We will
produce nothing for three months, to fix all the issues and
glitches, and to even make changes in the flow sheet to make
sure that the process plan now is adequate to the new mining
plan. And we’re going to come back in the second half of 2020.
Our goal is to come back at a 15 million ton rate, at which the
Vale Day 2019
December 2, 2019 26
asset is EBITDA positive. So that’s the plan.
I keep pressuring the guys, is this going to work, guys? So
far, they’re promising me that it will. We’ll see. Vale New
Caledonia, we are working on different scenarios to exit VNC.
We have communicated this to the French authorities, both in
France and in the south province. What has changed that prompted
us in this direction?
Three things. First, we were not able to take VNC production
to the levels we intended to. Something on the technology,
we’re missing it. The second thing, the second reason is that
there’s more people now engaged with that technology around the
world, because to make battery sulfide, nickel sulfide for
batteries from laterites that we have in New Caledonia and in
Indonesia, you require HPAL technology, precisely what you have
there.
So, there’s a lot of people looking into this technology, and
we believe that some of them also have a better grasp of it
than we do. And the third thing is that New Caledonia produces
intermediates which were disregarded a few years ago but today
are very important intermediates for the battery industry.
So, there is an opportunity, yes, to maybe change the flow
sheet ourselves or others, in order to fix what is happening
in the asset. So, by the first half of 2020, we will tell you
what is the path going forward. But that’s not all of what’s
on the table.
This table over here shows that in 2019, if you do the math,
almost $3 billion were spent outside of the core, and were
dragged by other assets or liabilities. We talked about Moatize
and VNC, and we promise you that by 2022, again 2022, there
will be no cash outflows with those two assets.
We have the stoppage expenses of all this idle iron ore
production which will not be there in 2022. They will decrease
accordingly to the resumption of production. You have Samarco.
Remember Samarco, which is still dragging cash flows and next
year it’s going to be heavy because of the investments in the
restart, and because of Renova, the foundation commitments
which are also there.
But they are expected also to come down until 2022. And you
have other opportunities to also reduce those cash outflows.
So almost $3 billion in 2019, a negligible amount in 2022, a
lot of opportunity to improve the cash flows of the company,
Vale Day 2019
December 2, 2019 27
regardless of what happens in the outside world.
I’m going to jump through that. But you can see also there’s
an updated table here with the expenses of Brumadinho expected
to—reparation of Brumadinho, it will still be there in 2022,
but they also have a path downwards. We can discuss this in Q&A
if you want to.
So that’s the second opportunity. The cash flows of the
business, regardless what happens outside will improve because
we will attack the inefficiencies. And finally, when you put
all those cash flows together, again, 2022 is the reference
date here. You see the EBITDA to the left, cash flows to the
right, different scenarios for iron ore and nickel prices.
The first thing that calls attention is obviously this is very
robust, on the left-hand side. Secondly the translation between
EBITDA towards cash flows is also very impressive. But most
importantly, and that’s the third opportunity, how are these
cash flows going to translate into valuation?
The valuation today is very low because you perceive very high
risks hanging on Vale. And that’s why we spend 70% of our time
showing you that we’re obsessed with reducing that level of
risk to make sure that the company has the proper valuation.
And what would be that valuation?
There is an exercise here. You have three scenarios of EBITDA
for 2022. Those scenarios, they come from the table of the last
page. You can then go to the site and make your own map. We’re
just saying, guys, what with a lower level of risk, we may come
back to the 5.5, perhaps 6 times EBITDA multiples that we had
10 years ago, for example, from today’s 4, less than 4, perhaps.
That’s why de-risking is so important. And if we do that, we
will have a firm value. For example, take the middle column,
just as an example, of close to $100 billion. Less of net debt,
you have the market cap. And if you add up the free cash flow
accumulated from here or there, which will be on the balance
sheet, which will reduce debt or will be distributed, you get
total shareholder return, in excess of 25%. 2022, three years
only. That’s what we intend to deliver to you.
Eduardo, for your closing remarks.
EDUARDO BARTOLOMEO: Thank you, Luciano. Well, I hope we were
successful in leading you through the roadmap. I think there
is an effective intent to execute. The way we see, making an
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analogy, it’s not a sprint. It’s much more a marathon. But two
things we can expect from Vale. It’s discipline and persistence.
We’ve been, as we said, on the reparation effort, taking steps
with quality, effectiveness. On the safe side, our ambition is
real. We’re going to pursue it, and we’re giving examples of
that commitment to safety. On production, we’ll bring it back
when it’s possible but already coming, and increasing our
volumes and reducing or increasing our activities.
And lastly, as Luciano said, we are primed for a valuation, if
we do it right, if we keep our discipline. But I think, just
to conclude, we have to take this opportunity to create a better
Vale, a Vale that adjusts its processes, its products, aligned
with demands of the society.
So, for that, I would like to thank you for your attention, and
let’s go to the Q&A. Thank you.
CHRIS TERRY: Hi guys. Chris Terry from Deutsche Bank, just over
here. I had three questions, two on iron ore, and then one base
metals. The questions in iron ore relate to you put up the
production numbers. I just wondered if you could comment on
what you need to replenish from your Malaysian and China
stockpiles, as a result of 2019 and 2020 and forward. That was
the first one in iron ore.
The second one in iron ore is just around the pellet market.
If you could comment on China’s activities and what’s happening
within China’s own pellet market. And then the question on base
metals just relates to hedging. Just wanted to make sure, in
the medium term, I understood. You’re hedging at the moment,
but in the medium term, the plan would be to remove that
hedging, not to continue that. Those are my questions. Thanks.
MARCELLO SPINELLI: Well regarding the production, this is the
way we see the plan for production. But we need to understand
capacity and production, sometimes the numbers are different
because we cannot reestablish capacity regarding volumes, but
not the quality yet. So, we are planning the limit to lower
quality products to blend Carajás fines together BRBF. So, the
constraint is how can we ramp up this and reach there?
So, the range is poor if you have some ups and downs, like if
you need to lead some different investigation or supply in a
different way. So, we have that range to guarantee that the
momentum will be there. But we are on track to return to
production with all the investigation and authorization of the
Vale Day 2019
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third parties, the prosecutors and the agency in Brazil to make
it happen. So that’s the way we’re going to return.
LUCIANO SIANI: So maybe to add, we could have made a plan to
produce 370 million tons, for example. But as he mentioned, the
quality is such and the cost is so high because of all the
restrictions towards production in the south, it’s simply not
worth it. So that’s where the value over volume approach kicks
in.
MARCELLO SPINELLI: If you have a discount, a high silica
product. So, you need to balance that return step by step, the
right quality to the right market. The pellets, you asked about
pellets in China, right, if I understand. Well we don’t sell
pellets in China. If you have any sale there, it’s a spot sale
for just some adjustment. But that’s not the premium market for
us.
We go to Middle East, or Europe, or Japan. So that’s the main
market for pellets. What we are developing is that they are
increasing their plans to reduce the sinter for—the problem of
pollution in China is not regarding CO2, but more related to
dust. So they want to reduce the use of the sintering process,
moving to the blast furnace. And the pellets are good because
you can go directly to the blast furnace. So that’s the reason
they are in increasing that.
They will need pellet feed, so we want to sell pellet feed to
them, using Carajás fines, performing just—changing the grains
of the Carajás, grinding the Carajás fines and fulfill the
pellets. So that’s the way we want to be in the pellet market,
feeding the pellet, the pellet feed.
LUCIANO SIANI: On hedging, unlike iron ore, we are price takers
in nickel. Nickel prices are decided by what happens in China
and in Indonesia, and not by the traditional producers. So, we
saw the window of opportunity. We hedged about 30% of our
production until 2020, and look at the financial statements to
see the derivatives position.
And that window has closed. And one of the key strategic reasons
why we did this is because we do have substantial cash outflows
in the nickel business in 2020 and 2021. We wanted to make sure
that the business itself could stand its own expenditures and
therefore securing, in this transition, a higher price.
EDUARDO BARTOLOMEO: And just to add, I think it proved right
afterwards. We knew it was a speculation around the prices that
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would not be sustainable. And I think it’s more important to
sustain the investment that we have to do in this transition
period.
CHRIS TERRY: Thanks guys. Just to follow up on the first point,
around the iron ore. I understand the production ramp, but just
wondering if you could make a few more comments on your sales
expectations and some of the moving parts in a restocking and
different parts of the business, to think about the sales that
we might see in 2020. Thanks.
MARCELLO SPINELLI: To guidance of production since last year.
Actually, we changed this year after Brumadinho, but we were
going to return to talk about production as a guidance for you.
But what can I say, that the number is quite the same but there
are some unbalance, if you compare some quarters because we are
again, for BRBF, we need to raise stock to get flexibility in
the operation in China, so we have some unbalance in the
beginning of the year, first quarter and second quarter.
We see this as a picture of the market, not only for Vale, but
also the unbalance from China steel high production, and
seasonal production of Australian and also Vale just a little
bit lower. So, the unbalance is there. But we’re going to talk
about production as a guidance for this year.
DANIEL SASSON: Thank you. This is Daniel Sasson from Itaú BBA.
Thanks for the presentation and for the updates on the efforts
you are doing on the compensations, reparations for Brumadinho.
My first question is related to ESG and capital allocation.
Probably with all these efforts, they are doing to become more
ESG friendly, ESG focused. Does it make sense to maintain all
of your businesses, or are you strategically considering
divesting some of your businesses?
And in the sense that maybe talking a bit about the iron ore
production in the north system which is where you do have dry
processing and higher quality, are you planning to expand
production in the northern system, maybe to replace part of the
production in Minas Gerais? Do you think that’s something that
could make or could help you guys to move from the 30%, 40% dry
processing today to the 70% in a few years, which is your goal?
Thank you.
EDUARDO BARTOLOMEO: I think first, to the question, we don’t
see yet, we are reviewing our portfolio towards a risk analysis
for sure. It has to do with ESG as well. But still, we didn’t
have to take any decisions about that. VNC was one that we
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already mentioned. It doesn’t fit in our portfolio. The skills
that are needed to run that are not here. So, it’s a matter of
accepting the facts, and of course it just goes to a better
portfolio of risks, for sure.
But that’s an undergoing process. We are of course doing that.
I don’t think on capital allocations, specific issues now on
that sense. About iron ore, we just ran our master plan for the
next five years. It’s balanced as we need the product. I think
some people sometimes don’t understand the fact that we need
to do both systems. We cannot only produce Carajás.
But we know we have the flexibility to expand Carajás if needed,
on a cost base, on a margin basis that we’re going to take. I
don’t know if Spinelli wants to elaborate a little bit more,
but fundamentally it’s that. On the level of our five-year
plan, we are balancing both systems.
MARCELLO SPINELLI: I think BRBF is going really well. It will
become the base of the blast furnace in China in years. And so,
we need to blend. But the name of the game is quality. You just
saw all the pressures regarding the CO2 emissions. So Carajás
is the key product for Vale. We are studying some expansion to
reach in S11D 150. It’s under study, this possibility.
But step by step, from 90, 100, 120, and 150. And it’s very
important to replace some capacity even in the north, but we
can build to the market, if you respect the value over volume.
We’ll be ready for that. And considering that we have lower
quality in the south, we can blend.
But you’re right, the trend is higher quality, but with the
BRBF, we have really succeeded with this product, so we’re
going to keep this.
TIAGO LOFIEGO: This is Tiago Lofiego from Bradesco BBI. When
can we expect, Eduardo, the collective more damage agreement
to be sealed with authorities, with Brumadinho? Can we expect
that for this year still, or is this something that can linger
on for a few months more? And then within that scope, when
should we expect you guys to come back and reinstate the
dividend policy? Do you think first half of next year should
be a reasonable timing for us to expect that, or you don’t have
a specific time in your head?
EDUARDO BARTOLOMEO: Would you repeat the second question
please?
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TIAGO LOFIEGO: Second question is reinstatement of the dividend
policy. Would the first half of 2020 make sense for us to expect
you to announce that?
EDUARDO BARTOLOMEO: Okay. Let me answer your first question.
I think we are undergoing a discussion with the government,
with the prosecutors, with the judge—the judicial system. So,
there is an expectation that we might come to an agreement but
it’s not feasible to do it this year. I don’t think there is
an expectation now, due to the complexity of stakeholders.
Remember that we have several lawsuits, in a sense, one for
environment, one for socioeconomic. So, you shouldn’t expect a
big bang like to solve everything. So, we believe there will
be an agreement around compensation and […] for environment,
an agreement for socioeconomic, for compensation and
reparation. So those both things are—and as you saw—as you
said, I think there’s several agreements around that are
supporting that.
But it’s not feasible to do it, as I mentioned, because there
are several stakeholders. People have to be connected. There
is leadership going on around that through the government. So,
the process, I would say is undergoing well, but it will take
time. And dividend , we have to keep our speech. Reparation is
improving. I think we were able to show to you today. But when
the time comes, the time will be announced. We don’t want to
give deadlines or first half, second half. But it will be
restored when it’s the time.
LUCIANO SIANI: It’s important, since we provision for the
reparation estimated outflows, we have always been considering
those types of agreements. So for example, ever since we made
a provision for the environmental liabilities in the second
quarter of this year, we put into that provision the estimate
that we have of where those conversations are going.
For example, you saw in the movie, sanitation. Sanitation has
been discussed for months now in a row. So, it’s there. It’s
already reserved there. Those conversations are not new.
They’ve been there for a while.
TIAGO LOFIEGO: And given recent conversations, do you see any
scope for more provisions, or you guys are comfortable with the
provision levels you have done?
LUCIANO SIANI: We are comfortable with the provisions so far.
Vale Day 2019
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TIAGO LOFIEGO: And last question here from me, on the ESG, back
to ESG, you mentioned the 2030 target and the gaps. But what
are more specific milestones that we should be watching in the
next maybe two to three years, something like a shorter term
for us to be following?
EDUARDO BARTOLOMEO: Good question. I think first of all, I
think the ESG goals, we were discussing that, we believe we can
close most of them around 2021 to 2022. There are some more
pragmatical goals like ISO 14001. It takes time. But it’s not
unreasonable to see. And that goes back to the transparence
portal. We’re going to follow up there, all the evolution for
that, or governance, things that […] I’m going to go back.
A lot of this stuff is already disclosure. We have in sight and
we’re going to disclose. So that’s why. Out of the gaps that
we have, we believe we’ve closed already 40%. The remaining,
as mentioned, is like 40% in governance, 40% in environment,
and 20% in social. One thing that is very important to bear in
mind is that when next year we close the shareholder agreement
is finished, like one big thing for the governance is
independent committee, not independence of the board will be
in a way solved because everybody that comes after is going to
be assigned as an independent.
So, we believe there is an ESG will be taking two years to
three years. And we can follow up on the portal, the goals for
that. So that’s why we defined this roadmap.
DANIEL MCCONVEY: This is Daniel McConvey from Rossport
Investments. Talking with a Brazilian friend of mine, who knows
your company well and the events of the last two or three years,
she maintains that part of the issue is part of the culture and
maybe the Latin American macho Brazilian culture, where
managers going up the chain of management are less likely to
be forthcoming if there’s a problem.
In other words, be totally transparent if there’s something
that’s not in their control underneath or that they’re not
controlling properly. Is that the case? And if so, how do you
address it?
EDUARDO BARTOLOMEO: Thanks for your question. I think there’s
two questions. And one, we cannot infer something for a cause
that we don’t know. So, the efforts that we are doing around
solving or finding the solutions from the accident is being
taken because that’s very important to level off.
Vale Day 2019
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First of all, we have an independent committee that’s directed
to the board. We did our own internal panel of specialists.
That is almost coming to an end now. Then we will have the—how
can I say that? The findings about what was the cause of the
accident. Inferring causes now is of course premature, and we
might not even solve the problem if we attack them.
But on the flip side, everything can be improved. Everything
has to be improved. Of course flow of information, VPS as what
Carlos mentioned here, it’s the basis of Toyota production
system. Any system that you see on total quality. What we want
to do, expose problems, solve problems, improve, get to a level
of efficiency and excellence that helps risk.
Remember when I said we didn’t put—how did I call—safety and
risk. We say safety and operational excellence because the
support for the safety will be operational excellence.
Operational excellence happens when you have flow of
information. You have capability. You have people trained to
do several things.
So, I would be mindful that we are working on that. When Carlos
mentioned cultural transformation, we need to create chronical
[…] for everything. That’s one thing that is in the industry.
So that’s why we want to foster that. But I will be very
mindful not to infer consequences from something that we don’t
know yet what happened.
DANIEL MCCONVEY: How do you encourage managers to be more
forthcoming?
EDUARDO BARTOLOMEO: Sorry?
DANIEL MCCONVEY: How do you encourage your managers, up the
management chain to be more forthcoming if there is a problem
they’re not disclosing?
EDUARDO BARTOLOMEO: I think everything. It flows naturally. We
do performance meetings. We talk to people. I walk around.
Spinelli has an approach to do that as well, the creation of
the second line of defense. It’s checks and balances, talking
to people, creating an environment that people want to talk.
That’s all. You have to do that in all companies. I worked for
other companies beside Vale. You have to do it everywhere.
So that’s the fostering that you have by walking the talk. And
I think we are doing that, with the actions that you’re
perceiving here.
Vale Day 2019
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DANIEL MCCONVEY: Thank you.
MARCELLO SPINELLI: Not only talk about the flow of people but
technicians along the chain to give information better and
better. So, the key is technical.
EDUARDO BARTOLOMEO: When I say just—I think your question
because I think it’s in my speech, by the way. Remember we said
reparation, people, and safety. We think those three things
work together, so people are the center, everything, either the
technician, either the director. Everybody has to be involved.
That’s what we’re trying to foster to create a better company
in any situation, in any condition.
And I think even the Brumadinho event creates a powerful
movement towards that goal. And even though it might not be the
case for the case of the accident.
CARLOS DE ALBA: This is Carlos de Alba from Morgan Stanley.
First question is regarding the discussion with the
prosecutors, in terms of the flow of information and the details
about the dam that collapsed. There had been some news
suggesting that some people that did investigations believe
that Vale did not provide full information on the dam
conditions. Have you had conversations with the prosecutors on
this?
Do you know, what are they thinking, and if you could be charged
under a different law that could result in an incremental
liability from what you have booked?
And the second one, Luciano, maybe you can give us an update
on the uses of cash flows to take care of balance sheet
liabilities, any timing and details. That would be useful.
EDUARDO BARTOLOMEO: Let me go to the first one. And Carlos,
just go back to the previous question. We don’t know yet the
causes. What we are doing is we are supporting the
investigations with everything that we can. And as soon as we
have the information, we’ll pass to you. It’s too premature to
infer anything. There’s an external investigation doing by the
authorities. There’s an internal investigation doing by the
board. When those things become public, we will deal with it.
But we don’t know yet. And I think the second question is about—
LUCIANO SIANI: Well the only update I may give you is that we
intend to withdraw the MBR preferred shares this year already,
so we’re hoping to retire them. It’s around $800 million. As
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you saw, there’s about $200 million cash outflows this year
alone, on those preferred shares, and we intend to retire those
preferred shares.
THIAGO OJEA: Hi. This is Thiago Ojea from Goldman Sachs. Thanks
for the presentation. I have two questions. First on the
guidance of iron ore, you’re providing now again guidance on
iron ore production, given that this year, you provided guidance
on sales. If you can comment a little bit, what are expectations
in terms of sales for next year? How is the inventory level at
Vale throughout the chain? And also, what is your expectation,
in terms of Chinese steel production?
And second, on Moatize. I understand that you are trying to
give a shock in the operations to try to improve the
profitability. But how do you see this business in the medium
and long term? Would you consider to divest from this business?
What is the end game on the coal business? Thank you.
MARCELLO SPINELLI: Okay. Well, the annual basis, what we expect
the sales will be quite the same as the production. But there
will some imbalanced moments that we have lower production, a
lower quality, and the necessity to restore the BRBF stocks.
So, there are some difference between the quarters. But in
terms of volumes, during the year, we expect the same number,
just to understand that. You asked another thing about iron
ore. Steel production.
THIAGO OJEA: Steel production in China, what is your view and
expectations for next year?
MARCELLO SPINELLI: Well, we see the production will be stable,
the same as we expect this year, something between 930 million
to 1 billion tons. That will be the same. We see strong stimulus
to infrastructure coming, so there is a delay for the result
in the end of the year. But we have some information that are
coming better.
Also, there is spike now for industry. The recovery last month
was really good but we don’t get in this area. But the other
part is regarding the real estate. Real estate is still the
locomotive of China demand for rebar. So, if you talk to the
clients, they see a stable production for next year with some
talking about the cuts, the winter cuts.
We don’t see a strong winter cut. We are trying to keep the
production. Some specific cuts regarding the pollution, the end
of the year. But the combination of that is to keep the
Vale Day 2019
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production of steel as a key against all the problem between
trade war or other possibilities to keep the growth of China
at 6% a year. That’s our mindset, and that’s what we check with
our clients.
EDUARDO BARTOLOMEO: About Moatize, I think it’s too premature
to say anything now. It’s extremely—how can I say that—complex,
what we are trying to do, who follows Vale knows, how difficult
it has been to operate the mine, not the railway by the way.
The railway we are doing fine. So, talking about partnership,
exiting anything now, it doesn’t add value to Vale. So, our
focus, as Luciano mentioned, is completely on restoring the
business.
TIMNA TANNERS: Hi. This Timna Tanners from BOFA. Just to follow
up on the Chinese steel production questions, if I could try
to pin you down to a little bit more precision on like a
forecast, just because beginning of the year was 10% plus
growth. Recently declined year over year.
So do you think there will be stimulus measures to keep forecast
next year? Are you looking at mid-single digits or more like
this year? And then my second question. I’m fascinated by your
HBI or pig iron discussion. How soon would you be thinking
about providing those alternative metallics to the customers?
And when you do have those discussions with particular Europeans
steelmakers looking to reduce their carbon footprint, do they
have a problem with using met coal and natural gas still, or
are there other alternatives, maybe the green pig? How far
along is that? If you could just provide a little more detail.
MARCELLO SPINELLI: Well production in China is, again, we think
that will be stable, about the same as this year, around 950,
930. It can be like this. Why? The same base for what happened
this year, the current year, based on the three pillars there.
Real estate is still the locomotive for demand.
But we have the—similar for infrastructure coming, so there is
a delay to recover that. They centralize a lot of the decision
for infrastructure. They are trying to decentralize this
decision again. But they have the problem of that in the
communities and the municipalities. They are solving this
problem.
We have been talking to […] University so close. We are partners
in the studies for China. And they are saying that they are
trying to solve the pattern of the loans to go, to bring to the
Vale Day 2019
December 2, 2019 38
central government and leave the municipalities to invest.
That’s the trend that is going on. And we can see the
infrastructure will return for levels not that we saw some 10
years ago, but it will return.
And some problem that we can find in the real estate business
because the real estate business is just a short-term solution.
It’s not a long-term solution. You can have a bubble, so there
are concerns about, okay, the imbalance that keeps the industry
fighting against all the problems that have to keep the growth
and also the trade war problem.
In this case, it puts a lot of pressure in the industry goods.
So that’s the big picture of the demand side. So, combining
everything, we see stable production for next year. Ex China
is recovering some operations. Japan is recovering after all
the problems with the weather, going back to ‘18. We have
something outside in the Southeast Asia, it is growing, a
different level, but they are growing. They are coming back
And Europe, we see a better road for growth. We can say that
they are growing 2%, 3% of the Ex China globally. So that’s we
are seeing demand. HBI, well what we are doing with HBI, HBI
is a proven technology in the world for more than 15 years, 20
years. You can use the HBI in many parts of the process. You
have a trend to use more scraps. That’s the trend for China.
It’s a long-term trend.
You can see to 2030. It depends on the quality of the scrap.
We don’t see good quality for scrap in China, so it is not
going to move so fast from blast furnace to EAF. That’s a trend
that probably will go over to 2030. That’s not a short term,
but really long-term transformation.
On the other hand, in the U.S., even in Europe, U.S. is based
on the EAF. Europe, that’s a possibility to change from the
blast furnace to the EAF. That is the way we are. So, we can
use HBI to clean, to improve the quality of the scrap. That is
one possibility. The other possibility you can use directly in
the operations, blast furnace or the EAF.
So, we are studying with our clients together with them. We’re
not going to this market and investing alone. So, we want to
do something close. We don’t want to spend a lot of Capex but
we want that they spend the Capex and you can combine location,
source of energy, and the technology.
So that’s the pillars that we want to combine to supply them.
Vale Day 2019
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That’s one trend. Another one is regarding the Tecnored.
Tecnored is pig iron. Pig iron for the U.S. is the best product.
They love pig iron. So, they can use this. They can correct it.
It’s more flexible.
And the way we produce pig iron in Brazil today, there are many
restrictions regarding the source of energy. So, they use
eucalyptus to make this happen, but there are some concerns
about the limitation of that. So, when we go and bring the
Tecnored, that is a better process, safer and more efficient.
We can introduce the use of biomass, and also blend with the
thermal coal. So that’s another trend to discuss.
We are also developing other products, not ready yet, that we
can anticipate this trend using other—changing or adapting
products that are in place in our production like pellets. The
way we can produce pellets is a possibility to introduce
solutions that we can foster and celebrate the change and the
save of CO2 in these markets.
But it’s important to understand there are different trends in
this market. China will take some more time. Europe is under
pressure. U.S.A. is already done with EAF. So, in all of these
options we are—then we’ll need good products, good iron ore.
We need the pellets to feed all these possibilities. And we are
ready to do that. So that’s why Luciano said we are in the best
position to face all the transition.
Because then we’ll need iron ore. HBI is based on good iron ore
and pellet products, to make it happen. So that’s the reason
why we are trying to help them to localize the best solutions
and give them the best product that we have.
LUCIANO SIANI: General market will be very different. And we
as the leaders will continue to be the go-to firm to supply
solutions to our clients. Only Vale has the differentiated
portfolio and will continue to develop products dedicated to
those needs.
CAIO RIBEIRO: This is Caio Ribeiro from Credit Suisse. So, my
first question is regarding the timing of the technical report
of the causes of the accident. I’m just wondering if you guys
can provide more color when you expect that the report that was
hired by the auditing firm that Vale hired to provide this
report, when you expect that’s coming out, and also the public
prosecutor’s technical report on the causes of the accident.
And then secondly, regarding some of the potential changes that
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the government is discussing to implement in regards to a
special participation tax or even a change in royalties, I just
wanted to see what your perspective is on where these
conversations are headed and what you think will potentially
change in terms of the regulatory framework, and what you think
today is necessary to change from the regulatory standpoint.
Thank you.
EDUARDO BARTOLOMEO: I think first of all, first question, I
think until the end of the year. We are expecting that until
the end of the year, the technical report that we are preparing.
The second one is a little bit more complex because there are
several initiatives or noises. One is like exempting...There
was a revision undergoing in the Congress to only go after the
mining sector. We understand that that is not reasonable.
And of course, Vale is a part of a bigger system, and we are
not the only mining company in Brazil. And ABRAN is dealing
with that through CNI as well. And we believe there’s no solid
grounds to do something like that. Participation, special
participation is even more complex because you have to choose
which kind of taxation or royalty.
Again, this constitution is the law, so it’s very hard to have
two systems working together. And finally, about royalties,
we’ve just been under an increase in royalties. You know that
in 2017 it happened. So, we don’t believe there will be room
for that kind of discussion. And Brazil is undergoing a big
revision on the tax system.
That I think will help clarify all these issues but it will
take a little bit of time. But it’s natural. But we think we
are very grounded at the facts that we are taxed correctly.
The other tax, there is a complex to implement, even legally
speaking. So that’s the way.
But again. Vale is one of the other members from the industry
that follows, that has the same perception, and are reacting
as a group to try to, of course avoid any damage to the industry.
ANDREAS BOKKENHEUSER: Thank you. Actually, two questions from
me, this is Andreas Bokkenheuser from UBS, first question being
on your iron ore breakeven cost. In the third quarter, we saw
it, I think just short of $45 a ton. Based on your cash cost
and freight cost guidance today, I think we could be looking
at $3 to $4 a ton drop in cost going forward. So, based on
that, should we think about your iron ore breakeven cost to
China in the $40, $42 a ton range going forward, sustainably?
Vale Day 2019
December 2, 2019 41
That’s the first question.
And the second question is one of the things we’ve seen in
China in the past 12 months is a lot of steel mills investing
in scrubbers, in filtration systems, effectively allowing them
to consume a lot of more lower grade iron ore, and possibly
even move away from the higher-grade iron ore consumption. Is
that how you see it as well? And if so, are you adjusting your
blending strategy for this particular development, going into
next year? Thank you.
MARCELLO SPINELLI: Well the breakeven cost, as I mentioned, we
are going to return our level of competitiveness in a few years.
So, as I mentioned, the key component is related to this
operation. We need the volume to dilute the cost. This is a
gradual process. If we reach all the volumes that we are
planning for that, obviously if you have market for that.
Just to remind you, we are really concerned about value over
volume, so we can change the production if you don’t need the
product even quality and also volume. So that will be the step
by step process. So first tackle, we need to tackle the
capacity, second more efficiency. So, in the end, the trend is
there. It’s really solid, the way we’re going to have the return
of the breakeven EBITDA can break even.
So gradually, three, four years, we’ll be there. Luciano is
really happy about this. And the filtering process, I mentioned
also we’re going to increase the cost of that. The first one
will be Vargem Grande to be in this year. It will be ready in
this year. The others will come in the end of 2020, 2021. So,
there will be a process. And this is part of that.
That’s the way we’re going to do. We need to filter that. We
have another investment New Steel, as I mentioned, New Steel.
We also have other initiatives to bring and avoid the use of
the dams. That’s an obsession to make it happen. It will cost.
But we can combine this with the possibility to operate in a
safer way. If you compare the cost of safety, all the
possibilities that we can have.
That’s another thing that we can generate co products with this
filter because we have—the co product is the sand, silica. It
will be a cleaner silica. We can dispose the silica to the
markets. We are studying this kind of things. So, in our minds
that this is a cycle operation. If you can close the cycle
without any disposal, any necessity of waste, we can bring the
waste and turn it in products, a whole product.
Vale Day 2019
December 2, 2019 42
We can stabilize and have a sustainable production. So in the
end of the game is avoid the dams and use in the future the
products that we are going to generate, the co-products and
turn the waste in co products, not only in—for us it’s not
ready to talk to you, not ready to talk about this but that’s
the mindset I want you to put in your mind. So, we are going
to solve the necessity of dams. And after that, we want to
solve the necessity to dry stacking this product and return to
the society in a way that we call the share value situation
because we can use this in industry like construction and other
kind of necessity of society.
So, this is the perfect cycle we want to get. It will take some
time. There are a lot of initiatives together. So, we are
prioritizing the filtering, and after that the reduction of the
dams. And the next step will be to circulate all the products,
and all the materials in an internal cycle, in a closed cycle.
That’s the trend we have.
LEONARDO CORREA: Good afternoon, everyone, this is Leonardo
Correa from BTG Pactual. Thank you. My first question maybe for
Luciano, still on the dividend topic, which clearly Vale is not
in position at this point to give much more detail on the
dividends. Just so the market can follow and can track the
additional events, is there any specific event that Vale is
waiting for to resume dividends?
What should we look out for? Is it just a matter of signing the
agreement with the government, and then Vale would be in
position to resume the announcement? Is it more of a
qualitative, potentially a political decision? What exactly is
the consideration for Vale? If you can add some disclosure for
investors, that would be great.
My second question for Spinelli, I wanted to return to the
guidance for 2020 on shipments. The range is 340 to 355. You’ll
recover 15 million tons of vital capacity which maybe is a bit
below what the market was expecting. So how optimistic is,
let’s say the mid to higher end of the range? Should 340
probably be more of a base case, considering that the first
quarter of 2020 you’ll be running on 70 million tons, more or
less, of capacity? There’s typical seasonality.
So just wanted to get a sense of what maybe the better number
is. The impression I have is 340 is probably the better number
for 2020. Just wanted to hear your thoughts. Thank you.
EDUARDO BARTOLOMEO: You asked Luciano. I’ll pass to Luciano,
Vale Day 2019
December 2, 2019 43
but I think it’s clearly something a little bit qualitative.
Of course, if we find and strike a deal in the environment and
on the social side, of course that would be a reason why we
could move forward. But we cannot attach to it, because it
might not be the case, because as before it might be too complex
to do it here. We don’t think that has logic on that. So that’s
the first, I think, element. We’re trying hard. That’s why we
say all the time that the reparation effort is key to the
perception.
And by the way, this is a decision that has been taken by the
board as well, so it’s a collective decision that people have
to perceive that the moment has arrived. That’s it. I think
that’s fundamentally what’s driving us. It’s too early to talk
about that. But of course, one day we will talk about that.
Unfortunately, we cannot give you a specific milestone. There’s
no milestone. There’s no specific event that would trigger
that.
If Luciano can add, of course, I think that would be welcome
but this is the position from Vale and from Vale board of
directors, as well, not only for the management team. We are
extremely focused on reparation, extremely focused on that.
That’s all the time that we need to do. And of course, improving
what we just mentioned here, de-risking the company, that’s
what you’re expecting from us. When the time comes, of course
we will come to the market.
MARCELLO SPINELLI: Talking about the range, well, for the range,
you know that we have initiatives for both numbers. So, you can
understand that we can reach the 355. So that’s a real
possibility. On the other hand, just mentioned here, many times
we can find something that we don’t know we had, so just
reassessing some dams and we can discover that we need to go
deeper in some investigation, so we can reduce the production.
So, this is a good range for that. But I think 350, that’s the
number we are going after, but the range is there for ups and
downs.
CICERO MACHADO: Hi, this is Cicero Machado from Wood Mackenzie.
The first question is about the pellet plans Vargem Grande
Fabrica. When do you see those coming back? And the second
question is about New Steel Technologies. Which are the major
constraints with the scalability of new steel technologies? Is
it Capex or is it geology, or anything else?
MARCELLO SPINELLI: Well, Fabrica will be the last to return.
Vale Day 2019
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On that side, we need many conditions to return regarding the
dams. We have a big cap dam that is under construction. We have
the wall that is under construction that will be ready in March,
early March, something like that. So just only after that we
can go to the site and make the improvements in the dam,
actually.
And we need the production from Fabrica to the pellet feed to
make the plant return. We expect this for the end of the year.
We’re not counting on that, but we’re expecting to have this
in the end of the year. That’s the general plan. And the second
question, sorry. New Steel is a great technology. It’s going
really well. We have a small plant that we have a trial.
We are investing this year in Vargem Grande will be the site
for that trial. We’re going to use the older facilities that
are already installed in Vargem Grande that we can make the
installation faster. We expect to have this in one year or one
year and a half we will have the first plant. It’s going really
well. The technology is—we have a good team, technical team to
develop that. And what is good that you can define the size of
the production.
So, you can have 1 million tons of production or 2 million tons
of production. Sometimes you can be closer to the client. So,
it’s very flexible, the way we’re going to use the solution.
We can install close to the mine, close to the client, so we
can have a flexible solution for that. We’re really happy about
the evolution of the technology. And soon we’re going to have
good news about this.
LUCIANO SIANI: We have room for just one more question. Sorry,
we are well past time, and lots of flight cancellations today
as well. We just heard, and so everyone needs to deal with
that.
JOHN TUMAZOS: This is John Tumazos. Concerning the nickel
projections, the 210,000 tons drops to about 190 pro forma the
Indonesian ownership stake changing. And you project 360. So,
could you tell us how you’ll get to 360 and why bother if
they’re haircutting you to 36.5? Why do it? There are better
places in the world than Indonesia to invest money.
MARK TRAVERS: The 360 is on a full inclusion basis. So
obviously, in those two projects we mentioned, we would not—PT
Vale would not take a full interest in, so it would be—on an
equity basis, it would be less. I think the Bahodopi project,
we anticipate a 49% interest. In the Pomalaa project, we
Vale Day 2019
December 2, 2019 45
anticipate about 25% interest.
So I think with respect to Indonesia, we have fantastic ore
bodies in Indonesia and a great portfolio. And we believe that
there’s great value in securing that for the future, great
returns on those projects as well. And we believe also with the
addition of Inalum to the ownership interest, we do have a key
strategic government player in there that will help us in
particular with the extension of the contract to work.
EDUARDO BARTOLOMEO: Well, once again, thanks a lot for your
time, for your interest, for your attention. I want to reinforce
what we’ve been saying since minute one in this meeting. We are
extremely committed with discipline, with persistence to de-
risk Vale. Thanks a lot, and have a good day.
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