Right
reasons
Right
information
Right
price
Right
implementation
Strategy Due diligence Valuation Integration
The keys to successful M&A
Valuation elements in M&A
There are five ‘value’ elements involved in determining the price that
is paid for an acquisition:
• The ‘as is’ value of the target’s equity
• The minimum control premium that needs to be offered to the
target’s shareholders
• The value of the net synergies that can be derived from the
combination
• The costs incurred in prosecuting the acquisition
• The standalone value of the acquirer’s equity (only relevant when shares are offered as payment for the target’s equity)
The M&A valuation task – the negotiating range
Synergy
leakage
Negotiating
Range
Standalone value
of the target
Value of the target
to the acquirer
Minimum
control
premium
Costs
Net
synergies
• Multiples
• Market multiples - comparable publicly traded companies – this
analysis indicates how the stock markets are valuing companies
that are similar to the target
• Transaction multiples - precedent comparable transaction
analysis – this analysis indicates the valuations at which prior M&A
transactions have been done in the same industry as that of the
target.
• Discounted cash flow - DCF analysis – is one of the most
important valuation techniques – it can be used to determine
standalone value and value of synergies
• Sum-of-the-parts analysis – If a target has more than one line of
business, the financial adviser will value each business separately.
Therefore, each “part” might have its own market multiples, transaction
multiples and DCF (with different WACCs for each part). The total
value is the sum of the parts.
Common techniques used in M&A valuations
• Multiples
• multiples yield measures of relative value
• market multiples give an estimate of the standalone value of the firm
relative to other similar
• Transaction multiples estimate what the deal price would be relative to
other similar deals that have occurred in the marketplace.
• Discounted cash flow
• DCF analysis is a way of estimating ‘fundamental’ or ‘economic’ value
• It does not refer to how other firms are valued
• It determines value from first principles
• What cash flows will the firm’s assets be able to generate in the future?
• What will the firm’s cost of capital be in the future?
• Etc., etc.
Essential difference between multiple and DCF methods
Investment by
debt holders (interest bearing debt)
Investment by
share holders (equity)
• Enterprise value is the value of the
whole firm – the value of debt plus
the value of equity
• Equity value is the value of what
remains after debt investors claims
have been satisfied
• Debt usually means interest bearing
liabilities in this context
• Sometimes equity value is estimated
directly and sometimes indirectly.
• Equity value = enterprise value –
value of debt
Enterprise Value
What is to be valued – the equity or the whole firm?
• To purchase a business the acquirer
generally pays equity value (but also
inherits the debts of the acquired
business)
What do multiples measure?
• What value are multiples measuring?
• Are we always measuring just the value of equity?
• Or do we sometimes measure the value of debt and equity?
• Some measure Equity value:
• PE ratio
• PB ratio
• Some measure Enterprise Value (EV):
• EV/Sales
• EV/EBIT
• EV/EBITDA
• Note - if using EV must deduct the value of debt to estimate equity
What are price multiples?
• A price (or valuation) multiple is a combination of two things
• a value driver and
• a market price
• Value drivers
• can be anything the valuer considers appropriate
• revenue, profit (in all its forms), earnings per share, book value etc.
• The price used must be consistent with the value driver
• The price of equity (market capitalisation) or
• The price of debt and equity (enterprise value)
• This combination can then be expressed as a multiple – for example
the PE ratio (or price earnings multiple), or EBITDA multiple
Using the multiple method
Multiples work by:
• Choosing a value driver on which to base the valuation • Determining a sustainable or maintainable (normal) amount of that
value driver
• How do we estimate that number?
• Applying a multiple to that sustainable amount of the value driver • Multiples are generally chosen from a comparable firm (or a set of
firms)
• What constitutes a comparable firm?
• How do we arrive at a list?
• A great deal of judgement is used to get answers
Value = Sustainable amount of value driver x Chosen multiple
Types of multiple – market multiples
• Market multiples estimate standalone value
• A market multiple is determined by comparing the current trading
level of a Company to its peer group of companies
• The peer group is a set of companies that are most similar to the
target in terms of business mix and strategy, geographic risks(same
country), margins, size etc.
• To find a good peer group start broad and then narrow the list to the
most comparable peers. Refer to equity research reports, industry
reports, the company releases
• The goal of the analysis is to understand how the market is valuing
the peer group in terms of your chosen multiple or multiples
• So market multiples are a measure of relative value – this company
should trade at the same level as its peers
• If you want to estimate the real economic value of the equity or firm
you must use discounted cash flow (fundamental economic value)
Common market multiples
Equity Multiples:
• PE ratio
MPS or Market capitalisation
EPS Earnings after interest and tax
Note that the Earnings need to be after Preferred Dividends so that they are earnings that
are available to ordinary shareholders
• PB ratio
Price per share Market capitalisation
BV of equity per share BV of ordinary shareholders equity
Enterprise Value Multiples:
• EV/Revenue
• EV/ EBITDA
• EV/EBIT
• The goal here is to understand the multiples at which
transactions in the target’s industry sector have been announced
or completed. The importance difference with market multiples is
that in this case, a control premium is built into the offer price and
therefore the multiples.
• Specifically, determine the pricing of past deals as compared to
the target’s financial performance and unaffected (pre-
announcement) market value
• Transactions selected should be as comparable to our proposed
transaction as possible, so one should look for recent deals,
where a company with highly similar business was acquired, in the
same country as the target etc.
• Transaction multiples include the premium paid (offer price
premium are often expressed as % of 1-day, 1-week and 4-week
pre-announcement trading prices - VWAPs).
Transaction multiples
Valuation using discounted cash flow
• DCF models approach valuation by considering what drives
economic value – often called fundamental valuation
• An asset, a firm, or its equity is worth the value today of all its
future net cash flows
• Valuation by discounted cash flow requires combination of
three finance concepts
• Time value of money
• Free cash flow
• Cost of capital
• DCF models range from the very simple to the quite complex
Discounted Cash Flow basic formula
The value of equity or of the firm (debt + equity or enterprise
value) is best measured by the discounted value of future cash
flows.
NPV = FCF1 + FCF2 + FCF3 + …. + FCFn
(1 + r) (1 + r)2 (1 + r)3 (1 + r)n
where: FCF = free cash flow
r = discount rate
PV = present value of equity or the firm
Present value
$365 m
Present value
Year 5 to ∞ $10,927 m
Value today
(Present value)
$13,338 m Present value
$722 m Present value
$681 m Present value
$643 m + + + =
The cost of waiting (WACC = 8.7%) reduces the value of the free cash flow
+
The concept of Time Value of Money
Nominal value
$397 m
Nominal value
$853m
Nominal value
$875 m
Nominal value
$898 m
Nominal value
Year 5 to ∞ $13,640 m
Toda
y
$16,663m
Applying DCF
DCF may be applied in many ways from the very simple to a
‘complete’ method. The difference is how future estimate are made.
The simplest method – a perpetuity – FCF1
r - g
The ‘complete’ method – discount year on year estimates
for a nominated period and use an assumed constant growth
rate thereafter
Intermediate methods – use constant growth rates for
nominated ‘step periods and an assumed constant growth
rate thereafter
The ‘Complete’ DCF method
Forecast period FCF1 FCF2 FCF3 FCFt-1 FCFt g x x x x x x sum V enterprise value less D market value of debt
equals E value of equity
divide N number of shares
equals P value per share
V = FCF1 + FCF2 + … + FCFt-1 + FCFt (1+r)-(t-1)
(1 + r) (1 + r)2 (1 + r)t-1 (r - g)
Terminal
year
Steps in ‘Complete’ DCF calculation
• Determine specific forecast period and terminal year
• Forecast free cash flow for specific period
• Forecast free cash flow for terminal year and beyond
• Determine discount rate (must be consistent with 2 and 3)
• Determine present value of free cash flows
• Determine enterprise value
• Deduct market value of debt to derive equity value
• Determine number of shares
• Determine value per share
• Businesses generate cash flows from operations
• Free cash flow to the enterprise is the after-tax cash flow from
operations that is “free” to be paid back to equity and debt holders
• Investors base their assessment of value on the cash flows they
could receive
• They “receive” these cash flows either directly through dividends or
through capital gains
• The value of the business is equal to the value of all the future free
cash flows
The concept of Free Cash Flow
Equity capital
Debt
capital
Working Capital
Net Assets
Non-current
Assets
Free Cash Flow to
the Enterprise
Free Cash Flow to the Enterprise
The amount of cash flow available to debt and equity investors after
investment in working capital and capital expenditure
Free Cash Flow to Equity
Free Cash Flow to Debt
Basis for
valuing
Equity
Basis for
valuing
Enterprise
Cash from
operations
The concept of Free Cash Flow
Calculating Free Cash Flow
There are two common approaches:
• an indirect approach from the Income Statement
or alternatively
• a direct approach it from the Cash Flow Statement
The indirect method
From the Income Statement:
Net Profit (earnings after interest and tax)
+ Interest
+ Tax
= EBIT (earnings before interest and tax)
- EBIT x Corporate tax rate
+ Depreciation and Amortisation (non-cash expenses)
+/- Change in working capital
= Net cash flow
- Net Capital expenditure (Capex)
= Free cash flows available to debt and equity holders (FCFd+e)
The direct method
From the Cash Flow Statement
Net cash flow from operations
+ Interest x (1 – corporate tax rate)
- Net Capital expenditure (Capex)
= Free cash flows available to debt and equity holders (FCFd+e)
Choosing the forecast period
The forecast period should reflect how long it will take for free
cash flows to become ‘normal’ (grow at a constant rate
thereafter).
This time period is indicated by:
• When you no longer have a competitive advantage
• The duration of the economic cycle for firms in cyclical industries.
• All predictable significant events are impounded.
• The degree of confidence in forecasts of future events.
Estimating future growth in FCF
During the forecast period:
• Each year must be considered individually
• The best results will be obtained through ‘line-by-line’
forecasting
• Generally avoid highly simplifying assumptions
The terminal year and beyond:
• Generally the estimated long term growth rate in
the economy is used because you can’t
outperform for ever
Estimating the Cost of Capital
Weighted average cost of capital under CAPM :
WACC (r) = re . E + rd (1-t) . D
V V
where: re = rf + b(rm - rf)
rd = interest rate
t = corporate tax rate
E = market value of equity
D = market value of debt
V = market value of the firm
The most popular method of estimating the cost of capital is
the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) …
Estimating Net Capital Investment
• Capital Investment represents the amount invested to maintain and
grow the business
• Can think of capex in two parts:
• replacement capex
• growth capex
• Where possible base estimates on actual capex forecasts
• If forecast data isn’t available cash flow statement approach is
most straight forward
• Consider ‘normal capex’; don’t include irregular capex or one off
events
• Also consider any inflows from realising old investments – hence
the reference to net capital investment
Length of forecast period
• It is assumed the business cannot grow faster than the economy
indefinitely
• However, a monopoly can last a long time
• Patents have long lives
• Brand superiority can be enduring
• How long superior growth rates can be maintained depends on the
sustainability of competitive advantage
Industry Value Growth Durations Value Growth Duration
Industry (Using Straight Perpetuity)
Banking 1-5 years
Food Products 3-10 years
Fast Foods 3-15 years
Pharmaceutical 15+ years
Beer and Wine 2-20 years
Airlines 3-10 years
Home Building 3-6 years
Source: LEK
* Chile’s Grill & Bar, Ramano’s Macaroni Grill, Maggiano’s, etc.
** PepsiCo spin off of KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell
Source : Value Line, L.E.K Analysis
2124
29
90
7976
71
10
-
20
40
60
80
100
Wendy's Brinker Int'l* McDonald's Tricon**
Percent
Percent of Enterprise Value Attributable to Residual value
First 5 Years
After 5 Years
Terminal value – how important?
Example of an intermediate method
• Clearly the ‘complete’ DCF model is complex and time-consuming.
• Many shortcut methods exist: an example
• Forecast free cash flows in three steps; two initial constant growth
periods of , say, five years each with a constant growth rate
thereafter forever.
FCF growth
rate (%)
10
5
3
5 10 Years
Non-operating items
• Valuation may be simplified by removing the net cash inflows from
non-operating or non-core assets from the determination of annual
free cash flows.
• If this is done the present value of free cash flows will omit the value
of those assets.
• Hence, after calculation of the present value of the free cash flows
the market value of the non-operating assets must be added.
• This variation of the model relies on the assumption that the current
market value of such assets represents the present value of the net
cash flows that would be derived from the asset in the future.
• Excess cash can be treated in this way.
Judgement
• It is apparent that a great many judgements have to be made in
every element
• Good idea to check how sensitive the answer is to changes in key
variables
• What the DCF model does is to ensure you make judgements
about the things that drive value
• So your answers are not right, just the best you can do
• That’s why it is a good idea to check, using alternative method(s)
whether your answer is reasonable
End note two
Suggestion
If you’re doing a valuation that really
matters
GET AN EXPERT
But check their results….
…..….because……...