Canadian Grain OverviewCasey McCawleyOctober 2019Vancouver, BC
VANCOUVER SHIPINVEST
The State of Agricultural trade in the world today
Canadian Grain Overview
A. Macro OverviewB. Prairie Crop Production
Macro Overview
MAJOR DEMAND FACTOR
• Asian Swine Flue
• On going trade war between US and China impacting global trade patterns. Impact on soybean market is significant with stocks piling up in the US
• Reduced Ethanol Inclusion.
MAJOR DEMAND FACTOR: Canadian Focus
• Chinese Canola Restrictions
• Indian Pea Tariffs
• Italy: Country of Origin pasta labelling requirements
• Vietnam: Zero tolerance for thistle in Canadian wheat to Vietnam
World Wheat Stocks2019/20 Global Wheat Ending Stocks equal to 139 Days of Demand4source: OCTOBER 2019( WASDE (USDA) and USDA PSD Online database
1 Algeria, Egy pt, Liby a, Morocco, and Tunisia. 2 Indonesia, Malay sia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. 3 Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuw ait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 4 domestic consumption plus ex ports for ex port regions and domestic demand for all other regions
Canada58 days
U.S.180 days
Brazil36 days
Argentina32 days
Australia104 days
Russia38 days
Kazakhstan49 days
China
411 days
India77 days
E.U.28 days
North Africa1
108 days
Ukraine18 days
S.E. Asia2
70 days
MidEast3
104 days
Pakistandays
including Chinaexcluding China
Wheat Ending Stocks
HRWHRSSRWwhite
durum
208198138110158
Japan56 days
Nigeria14 days
96
97
79
66
67
80
87
82
88
97
80
71
85
84
67
64
85
100
94
92
81
83
90
91
87
88
82
83
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
World Soybeans Stocks2019/20 Global soybean Ending Stocks equal to 99 Days of Demand1source: OCTOBER 2019 WASDE (USDA) and USDA PSD Online database
1 Indonesia, Malay sia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. 2 domestic consumption plus ex ports for ex port regions and domestic demand for all other regions
ChinaMMT
U.S.42days
Brazil166 days
Argentina166 days
China68 days
E.U.22 days
49 days
Mexico49 days
including China
Soy bean Ending Stocks
Paraquay86 days
68
57 6
8
51
42
68
66
69
73
74 8
6
78 8
9 94 1
05
87
75
96 1
06
81
81
84 9
5
93 1
06
107
116
99
1 9 9 3 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 9
S.E. Asia1
World Corn Stocks2019/20 Global Corn Ending Stocks equal to 98 Days of Demand2source: OCTOBER 2019 WASDE (USDA) and USDA PSD Online database
1 Indonesia, Malay sia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. 2 domestic consumption plus ex ports for ex port regions and domestic demand for all other regions
ChinaMMT
U.S.50 days
Brazil30 days
Argentina42days
China258 days
E.U.38 days
Japan33 days
Mexico24 days
117
93 104
91
109
106 120
118
105
89
74
59 69
64
55
59
63
58
49
51 60
82
105
114
121
113
104
98
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
including Chinaexcluding China
Corn Ending Stocks
South Africa60 days
Canada57 days
S.E. Asia1
24 days
Ukraine8 days
Egypt44 days
South Korea64 days
Prairie Crop Production
Overall Strong YieldsMap shows variance from the 5 year avg for the five highest weekly NDVI readingssource: Statistics Canada and Parrish & Heimbecker Limited
1.25
10%
33%
55%
78%
100%
NDVI above 5 year average
NDVI below 5 year average
75 km radius
0.000
0.100
0.200
0.300
0.400
0.500
0.600
0.700
CROP15
CROP16
CROP17
CROP18
CROP19
CROP20
CROP21
CROP22
CROP23
CROP24
CROP25
CROP26
CROP27
CROP28
CROP29
CROP30
CROP31
CROP32
CROP33
CROP34
CROP35
CROP36
CROP37
CROP38
CROP39
CROP40
CROP41
current crop year 5 year avg +/- 1 st. dev.
Overall Prairie Region Average
Map shows variance (percentage) from the 5 year average for the average of the five highest weekly NDVI readings
scale
Prairie Grain ProductionMillion tonnessource: Statistics Canada and Parrish & Heimbecker Limited
Prairie Provinces Crop Production million tonnes
7 5 4 7 8 9 9 10 13 13 13 14 14 18 16 18 19 21 20 18
41
3123
35 38 38 35 3341 37
3033 35
48
37 3741 39 41 42
0102030405060708090
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019F
Canola Cereal Grains1 Pulse Crops2 Soybeans other Field Crops
1 includes all wheat, barley, oats, fall rye, canaryseed, triticale and mixed grains2 includes all dry peas, lentils, chickpeas and fababeans
1 8
4 9
1 3
73
5
2 3
2 7
1 93 5
2 9
4 02 5
3 0
3 6
3 7
5 4
5 11 4
9
1 32 3
3 3
2 4
1 81 3
1 31 0
1 0
4 6
3 5
3 5 5 06 0
6 5
2 5
1 1
2 4
1 0 0
Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba
Western Canada overall
canola
spring wheat
Harvest Progress Part 1Map shows Regional Harvest progresssource: Provincial Agricultural Ministries and Parrish & Heimbecker Limited
Limited harvest progress before mid September
weather challenges resulting in limited supply of high
quality durum and spring wheat.
Mid September Avg: 50%
3 5
7 9
2 4
1 81 9
1 6
4 7
4 6
3 35 4
5 1
4 84 4
6 3
7 0
7 2
8 2
7 62 5
2 8
4 34 6
5 7
4 4
5 44 5
5 33 4
3 3
6 7
7 0
5 8 7 37 0
6 5
4 7
2 8
4 9
1 0 0
Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba
Western Canada overall
canola
spring wheat
Harvest Progress Part 2Map shows Regional Harvest progresssource: Provincial Agricultural Ministries and Parrish & Heimbecker Limited
Need good October harvest weather to
complete 2019 harvest. Quality issues have already occurred specifically on cereals
grains
End of September Avg: 75% End of October Avg: 95%+
P r o j e c t e d G r o s s M a r g i n ( d o l l a r s p e r a c r e ) o f S e l e c t e d C r o p s r a n g e i s + / - 1 0 % o f b a s e y i e l d a n d / o r p r i c e
$ 0 $ 2 5 $ 5 0 $ 7 5 $ 1 0 0 $ 1 2 5 $ 1 5 0 $ 1 7 5 $ 2 0 0
f e e d w h e a tr e d l e n t i l s
f e e d b a r l e y2 C W R S 1 2 . 5
1 C P S R 1 1 . 5p e a s ( y e l l o w )1 C W R S 1 3 . 5
o a t ss o y b e a n s
c a n o l a1 C W A D 1 3 . 0
f i x e dc o s t s
2019 Crop Margins source: Parrish & Heimbecker Limited
#1 Durum & Canola
Feed Wheat & Lentils
M a j o r A s s u m p t i o n s
1 C W R S 1 3 . 5 : 4 5 . 0 b u / a c @ $ 5 . 9 5 / b u ; $ 1 7 5 o p e r a t i n g c o s t p e r a c r e
2 C W R S 1 2 . 5 : 4 5 . 0 b u / a c @ $ 5 . 7 0 / b u ; $ 1 7 5 o p e r a t i n g c o s t p e r a c r e
1 C P S R 1 1 . 5 : 5 5 . 0 b u / a c @ $ 4 . 8 0 / b u ; $ 1 8 0 o p e r a t i n g c o s t p e r a c r e
1 C W A D 1 3 . 0 : 4 5 . 0 b u / a c @ $ 7 . 5 0 / b u ; $ 1 8 5 o p e r a t i n g c o s t p e r a c r e
f e e d w h e a t : 4 5 . 0 b u / a c @ $ 4 . 5 0 / b u ; $ 1 8 5 o p e r a t i n g c o s t p e r a c r e
o a t s : 9 0 . 0 b u / a c @ $ 2 . 8 5 / b u ; $ 1 5 0 o p e r a t i n g c o s t p e r a c r e
f e e d b a r l e y : 7 0 . 0 b u / a c @ $ 3 . 2 5 / b u ; $ 1 5 5 o p e r a t i n g c o s t p e r a c r e
c a n o l a : 3 7 . 5 b u / a c @ $ 9 . 7 0 / b u ; $ 2 4 0 o p e r a t i n g c o s t p e r a c r e
r e d l e n t i l s : 1 , 4 0 0 l b s / a c @ $ 0 . 1 6 / l b ; $ 1 7 0 o p e r a t i n g c o s t p e r a c r e
p e a s ( y e l l o w ) : 4 0 . 0 b u / a c @ $ 5 . 9 0 / b u ; $ 1 5 0 o p e r a t i n g c o s t p e r a c r e
s o y b e a n s : 3 0 . 0 b u / a c @ $ 9 . 8 0 / b u ; $ 1 7 5 o p e r a t i n g c o s t p e r a c r e
durum quality lottery
Canola: Product Flow2019 crop year in Million tonnessource: Statistics Canada, Canadian Grain Commission and Parrish & Heimbecker Limited
China
west coast exports east coast
exportsJapan
Pakistan & Middle East
other Asia
0.7
3.1
2.1
1.2
0.3 1.0
0.6
0.2
7.9 9.3
domestic crush
0.5
Europe
Wheat1: Product Flow2019 crop year in Million tonnessource: Statistics Canada, Canadian Grain Commission and Parrish & Heimbecker Limited
1 all wheat excluding durum
China
-west coast
exports
1.2
east coast exports
Japan
Bangladesh
Indonesia
Mexico
4.0
0.9
2.1
1.5
1.2
2.3
0.3
0.8
0.6
3.4
0.7
1.4 other Asia
1.6 0.9
0.4
14.3
7.6
3.0 milling
total domestic
Europe
Africa east coast
Africa west coast
Durum: Product Flow2019 crop year in Million tonnessource: Statistics Canada, Canadian Grain Commission and Parrish & Heimbecker Limited
-west coast
exports
0.8
east coast exports
0.4
0.5
0.1
1.3
0.2
0.2
0.8
1.0
0.2 milling
total domestic
1.5 0.2
1.0 Europe/N. Africa
2.2
Asia/Middle East(Japan and UAE)
Europe
North Africa
Questions?