VCD News presents….VCD News presents….

CONFLICT CONUNDRUMS:CONFLICT CONUNDRUMS:Spotlight on YEMENSpotlight on YEMEN

““Confronting the Myths”:Confronting the Myths”:

Your Views; Our AnalysisYour Views; Our Analysis

Key Historical DatesKey Historical Dates

The NorthThe North

The SouthThe South

1962 Revolution - Imamate overthrown

British Colony until 1967

Yemeni Arab Republic formed

People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen formed

Unification 1990

Civil War 1994

Areas of InstabilityAreas of InstabilityAl Houthi Rebellion (Zaydi Shi’ia)

Secessionist movement

Adapted from www.criticalthreats.org

A Problematic Profile:A Problematic Profile:

Government failing to provide basic Government failing to provide basic servicesservices

Milex in 2007 Milex in 2007 4.3% of GDP per 4.3% of GDP per capitacapita

Arms circulation Arms circulation

60 Million guns to 20 million 60 Million guns to 20 million peoplepeople

YOUR VIEWSYOUR VIEWSMYTH 1:MYTH 1:

““It’s just another religious war! The It’s just another religious war! The same old Sunni-Shiite divisions same old Sunni-Shiite divisions have resurfaced in Yemen this have resurfaced in Yemen this time, much like Iraq” time, much like Iraq”

(Mrs A. Theist, Bath)(Mrs A. Theist, Bath)

Sa’ada, Northern YemenSa’ada, Northern Yemen

Confronting the MythConfronting the Myth

No strong religious divide in Yemeni societyNo strong religious divide in Yemeni society

Religious identity utilised as political rhetoricReligious identity utilised as political rhetoric

- By the Houthis- By the Houthis

- By the Government (mainly)- By the Government (mainly)

The Sectarian issue is not a major causal factor in the

Northern conflict:

The main grievancesare political and economic

Developmental neglect of the areaDevelopmental neglect of the area

Political motivations are unclearPolitical motivations are unclear

Alleged regional proxy-war between Alleged regional proxy-war between Iran (Shiia) and Saudi Arabia (Sunni)Iran (Shiia) and Saudi Arabia (Sunni)

The potential for religious cleavages

to become salient This is NOT a ‘religious war’This is NOT a ‘religious war’

AdverseAdverse consequences consequences

- The sectarian divide as a ‘self-- The sectarian divide as a ‘self-fulfilling prophecy’? fulfilling prophecy’?

- Increasing the likelihood of - Increasing the likelihood of polarisation polarisation

MYTH 2:MYTH 2: “ “Tribalism is what is Tribalism is what is undermining the undermining the state! Establishing a state! Establishing a centralized form of centralized form of authority never authority never works when kinship works when kinship ties are valued over ties are valued over all other loyalties. all other loyalties. Tribes are nothing Tribes are nothing but traditional but traditional warriors and prevent warriors and prevent the state-building the state-building project”project”

(Ms Poly Tical-mess, (Ms Poly Tical-mess, Glasgow)Glasgow)

Confronting the MythConfronting the Myth

Topography & Outside Topography & Outside Interference:Interference:

The SouthThe South fertile land → semi-feudal structuresfertile land → semi-feudal structures 1939: British rule1939: British rule 1976: People’s Democratic Republic of 1976: People’s Democratic Republic of

Yemen Yemen

• • Tribalism is condemned as feudalismTribalism is condemned as feudalism

Topography & Outside Topography & Outside Interference:Interference:

The NorthThe North Mountainous, arid land → resource Mountainous, arid land → resource

pressure → war → tribalismpressure → war → tribalism No outside interference disrupted No outside interference disrupted

tribal networkstribal networks 1962: Yemen Arab Republic1962: Yemen Arab Republic

• • Tribal loyalties bought through Tribal loyalties bought through money/armsmoney/arms

Northern political realityNorthern political reality State/tribal relations are not State/tribal relations are not

antagonistic per se (eg. 1962)antagonistic per se (eg. 1962) Tribes are not inherently violent Tribes are not inherently violent

forms of organization (eg. 1994) forms of organization (eg. 1994) 

Southern political realitySouthern political reality Protests & secessionist callsProtests & secessionist calls

Al Houthi

Rebellion

Adapted from www.criticalthreats.org

The al-Houthi rebellion as a The al-Houthi rebellion as a borderland conflictborderland conflict

Saa’da constitutes a ‘non-state space’ Saa’da constitutes a ‘non-state space’ The state attempts to establish territorial The state attempts to establish territorial

control control Presenting the conflict as ‘tribal’ conceals Presenting the conflict as ‘tribal’ conceals

more than it revealsmore than it reveals The ‘contractarian model’ of the state does The ‘contractarian model’ of the state does

not hold not hold Rather than seeing ‘tribes’ as the problem, Rather than seeing ‘tribes’ as the problem,

they should be considered part of the they should be considered part of the solution.solution.

MYTH 3:MYTH 3:

““There is conflict because the There is conflict because the country is poor: People are country is poor: People are angry because they do not have angry because they do not have their basic needs covered. their basic needs covered. (Ms S. S. Reformer, Scunthorpe)

Confronting the MythConfronting the Myth

Yemen’s povertyYemen’s povertyFood Security:Food Security: 7 million people are food insecure7 million people are food insecure 80% of food imported80% of food importedWater Scarcity :Water Scarcity : 80% population affected by water 80% population affected by water

shortagesshortages Qat 1/3 of agricultural land and ¼ of Qat 1/3 of agricultural land and ¼ of

ground waterground water

Demographic contextDemographic context Three times world Three times world

average demographic average demographic annual growthannual growth

Average age - 16 Average age - 16 yearsyears

Increasing rural Increasing rural urban migrationurban migration

35% Unemployment 35% Unemployment (estimate)(estimate)

Refugees from Horn Refugees from Horn of Africa of Africa additional pressure additional pressure

MYTH 4:MYTH 4:“It is all about the oil! – Yemen is suffering

from the resource curse that is the reason why there is large-scale violence. Paul Collier is right. They are just being greedy!

(Mr. A. Bundance-Curse, Nottingham)

Confronting the MythConfronting the Myth

How has Yemen fallen under the How has Yemen fallen under the resource curse?resource curse?

But is the violence been motivated by But is the violence been motivated by greed or are do they have grievances?greed or are do they have grievances?

The air of inevitability The air of inevitability

Confronting the MythConfronting the Myth

Declining oil reservesDeclining oil reserves 460,000 barrels per day in 2002 falling 460,000 barrels per day in 2002 falling

by 12% in 2007 to the current rate of by 12% in 2007 to the current rate of 300–350,000 barrels per day300–350,000 barrels per day

Dependence on oil economy Dependence on oil economy Yemen’s oil sector provides 90% of Yemen’s oil sector provides 90% of

export earnings and 75% of government export earnings and 75% of government revenue of which 35% of oil produced is revenue of which 35% of oil produced is consumed domesticallyconsumed domestically

How has Yemen fallen How has Yemen fallen under the resource curse?under the resource curse? President Saleh’s divide and rule President Saleh’s divide and rule

strategystrategy South secession movementSouth secession movement

Does the presence of oil Does the presence of oil reinforce Collier’s theory that reinforce Collier’s theory that

rebel groups are carrying out a rebel groups are carrying out a cost benefit analysis and cost benefit analysis and

resorting to violence?resorting to violence?

History of Conflict in YemenHistory of Conflict in Yemen Al-Houthi rebellion only began after Al-Houthi rebellion only began after

the assassination of their leaderthe assassination of their leader Fragile source of PowerFragile source of Power

MYTH 5:MYTH 5:

““Yemen is a failed state, that’s why Yemen is a failed state, that’s why it’s attracting Al Qaeda terrorists it’s attracting Al Qaeda terrorists and all those Islamic extremists!” and all those Islamic extremists!” (Mr D.D. Arneeded, Sandhurst)(Mr D.D. Arneeded, Sandhurst)

Confronting the MythConfronting the Myth

Do failed states breed terrorism?Do failed states breed terrorism?

Is Yemen a failed state?Is Yemen a failed state?

Should all violent acts in Yemen Should all violent acts in Yemen be seen as terrorism?be seen as terrorism?

Concluding RemarksConcluding Remarks

ROOT CAUSEROOT CAUSE: :

Internal discontent with Saleh’s regimeInternal discontent with Saleh’s regime

1). Exclusionary politics1). Exclusionary politics

2). 2). Economic & social neglect of Economic & social neglect of peripheral areasperipheral areas

3). Unpopular foreign policy3). Unpopular foreign policy

Destabilisation of religious & tribal Destabilisation of religious & tribal relationsrelations

Interrelated Secondary Interrelated Secondary factorsfactors

Widespread povertyWidespread poverty Population Growth & Refugee influxPopulation Growth & Refugee influx Depletion & uneven distribution of Depletion & uneven distribution of

resourcesresources Heavily armed population (traffic Heavily armed population (traffic

from Somalia)from Somalia) Pressure from International actors to Pressure from International actors to

‘fight terrorism’ ‘fight terrorism’

What will become of What will become of Yemen?Yemen?

Future prospects…Future prospects…

““The 1st rule of Yemeni The 1st rule of Yemeni politics is that in order to control a united politics is that in order to control a united Yemen, a leader must incorporate the Yemen, a leader must incorporate the northern tribes into his coalition” northern tribes into his coalition” (Welton)(Welton)

““Yemen is the tribe and the tribe is Yemen” Yemen is the tribe and the tribe is Yemen” (Manea)(Manea)

And finally…And finally…

Misconceptions can reproduce Misconceptions can reproduce harmful discourseharmful discourse

Thank you very much for listening and stay tuned to VCD News…

Policy RecommendationsPolicy Recommendations

Diversification of the economyDiversification of the economy Reconceptualise mechanisms of Reconceptualise mechanisms of

governance & tribal relationsgovernance & tribal relations Revive indigenous modes of conflict Revive indigenous modes of conflict

reconciliationreconciliation Negotiations with tribes, NOT Negotiations with tribes, NOT

repressionrepression Restructuring of International aid Restructuring of International aid

structuresstructures