VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2010
3D Relative Risk Profile ComparisonPotential Grounding Oil Loss
Dr. J. Rene van Dorp and Dr. Jason R.W Merrick
11/21/2013 1 GW-VCU
November 2013
CASE U: GW – KM – DP & Additional Variability of Case T What-If Focus Vessel ArrivalsDraft
T: GW - KM - DP 3D Risk Profile All FV - Pot. Ground. Oil Loss: 159% of Base Case PGO
23-24 22-23
21-22 20-21
19-20 18-19
17-18 16-17
15-16 14-15
13-14 12-13
11-12 10-11
9-10 8-9
7-8 6-7
5-6 4-5
3-4 2-3
1-2 0-111/21/2013 2 GW-VCU
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2010
Draft
U : GW - KM - DP & VAR 3D Risk Profile All FV - Pot. Ground. Oil Loss: 159% of Base Case PGO
23-24 22-23
21-22 20-21
19-20 18-19
17-18 16-17
15-16 14-15
13-14 12-13
11-12 10-11
9-10 8-9
7-8 6-7
5-6 4-5
3-4 2-3
1-2 0-1
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2010
11/21/2013 3 GW-VCU
Draft
11/21/2013 4 GW-VCU
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2010
POTENTIAL GROUNDINGOIL LOSS - PGO
Draft
11/21/2013 5 GW-VCU
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2010
POTENTIAL GROUNDINGOIL LOSS - PGO
Draft
T: GW - KM - DP 3D Risk Profile What-If FV - Pot. Grou. Oil Loss: 61% of Base Case PGO
23-24 22-23
21-22 20-21
19-20 18-19
17-18 16-17
15-16 14-15
13-14 12-13
11-12 10-11
9-10 8-9
7-8 6-7
5-6 4-5
3-4 2-3
1-2 0-111/21/2013 6 GW-VCU
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2010
Draft
U : GW - KM - DP & VAR 3D Risk Profile What-If FV - Pot. Grou. Oil Loss: 57% of Base Case PGO
23-24 22-23
21-22 20-21
19-20 18-19
17-18 16-17
15-16 14-15
13-14 12-13
11-12 10-11
9-10 8-9
7-8 6-7
5-6 4-5
3-4 2-3
1-2 0-111/21/2013 7 GW-VCU
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2010
Draft
11/21/2013 8 GW-VCU
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2010
POTENTIAL GROUNDINGOIL LOSS - PGO
Draft
11/21/2013 9 GW-VCU
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2010
POTENTIAL GROUNDINGOIL LOSS - PGO
Draft
DEFINITION OF 15 WATERWAY ZONES
65
7
8
9
15
43
1
213
10
11
12
1. Buoy J2. ATBA3. WSJF4. ESJF5. Rosario6. Guemes7. Saddlebag8. Georgia Str.
9. Haro/Boun.10.PS North11.PS South12.Tacoma13.Sar/Skagit14.SJ Islands15.Islands Trt
VTRA 2010 Waterway Zones
14
11/21/2013 10 GW-VCU
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2010
Draft
0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
0.5%
0.5%
5.7%
6.6%
7.7%
10.9%
11.1%
11.1%
12.2%
16.2%
27.2%
49.1%
0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.5%
5.5%
7.3%
7.8%
11.0%
10.9%
11.9%
12.8%
18.9%
25.7%
46.2%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%
Buoy J : 0.0% | x 0.97ATBA : 0.0% | x 0.92
Sar/Skagit : +0.0% | x 1.03SJ Islands : -0.1% | x 0.69Tac. South : 0.0% | x 0.95
WSJF : -0.2% | x 0.96Georgia Str. : +0.7% | x 1.10Islands Trt : +0.1% | x 1.01
PS North : +0.1% | x 1.01PS South : -0.2% | x 0.98Guemes : +0.7% | x 1.07Rosario : +0.6% | x 1.05
Saddlebag : +2.7% | x 1.17ESJF : -1.4% | x 0.95
Haro/Boun. : -2.9% | x 0.94
% Base Case Grounding Oil Loss (GOL) - ALL_FV
% Base Case Grounding Oil Loss - ALL_FV
U : GW - KM - DP & VAR : 159% ( 0% | x 1.00) T: GW - KM - DP : 159%
11/21/2013 11 GW-VCU
++0%
Waterway Zone:
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2010
Draft
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
1.6%
1.9%
2.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.7%
0.4%
16.4%
37.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
1.5%
2.3%
2.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.8%
0.5%
14.7%
34.5%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%
Buoy J : +0.0% | x 1.13ATBA : +0.0% | x 1.40
Sar/Skagit : +0.0% | x 1.49SJ Islands : -0.1% | x 0.69
Tac. South : +0.0% | x 1.04WSJF : -0.1% | x 0.92
Georgia Str. : +0.4% | x 1.24Islands Trt : +0.0% | x 1.02
PS North : +0.0% | x 1.08PS South : 0.0% | x 0.98Guemes : 0.0% | x 0.96
Rosario : +0.1% | x 1.08Saddlebag : +0.0% | x 1.02
ESJF : -1.6% | x 0.90Haro/Boun. : -3.2% | x 0.92
% Base Case Grounding Oil Loss (GOL) - WhatIf
% Base Case Grounding Oil Loss - WhatIf
U : GW - KM - DP & VAR : 57% ( -4% | x 0.93) T: GW - KM - DP : 61%
11/21/2013 12 GW-VCU
+-4%
Waterway Zone:
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2010
Draft