FUTURES JAMThe future of sport & physical activity: Understanding trends & market opportunities

#VHinnov

welcome

join the conversation on twitter with @VicHealth

@DoingSomeGood #VHinnov

David Hood @DavidAHood

Julian Waters-Lynch @jwaterslynch

why the innovation challenge?Less than a third of Australians get enough physical activity every day. While many of us play traditional club sport to keep active, it’s not the answer for everybody.

Recent trends show that participation is shifting. People are gravitating towards individual and fitness- based sports. Lifestyle, adventure and alternative sports are on the increase and people are choosing to participate in activities such as jogging, aerobics, cycling, group fitness training, fun runs and even military obstacle courses!

More and more people are looking for flexible, social and less structured ways to get active. So, let’s give it to them!

what is the innovation challenge?The VicHealth is looking for new ideas to get more Victorians physically active.

We’re challenging you to take sport and physical activity in a new direction.

You could share in a pool of $400,000 in start-up funding to test your big idea and make a big impact.

what are VicHealth looking for?Ideas that address the following criteria:

1. Get more people physically active

2. Point of difference: be clever, timely and unique.

3. Equity: reach the hard to reach and move the hard to move.

4. Scalability: able to be expanded, upscaled or transferred

5. Sustainability: will be able to stand on its own two feet.

6. Partners: recruited a project team that brings a unique perspective

7. Sharable: documented your project so we can share it online

8. Ready to roll!: must be able to test within 12 months

1. Dive in to:

• Trends in technology, sport and physical activity to make sense of them and understand what's driving them

• The needs and values of individuals and communities in your target market to design better services

2. Explore innovative approaches to idea creation and design of services - including design thinking and lean startup

3. Discover innovative approaches, programs and initiatives changing the face of sport and physical activity in Australia and around the world

what’s in store for today’s jam

creating the conditions to spark great ideas

http://uxthink.wordpress.com/2010/01/10/apple-design-proces/

1. Be present.Focus on what you’re doing right now and pay attention to every aspect of what you’re doing: to your body, your senses, your thoughts. 2. Accept everything as an offer.Receive thoughts, ideas, questions or comments of others as a gift.

3. There are no mistakes.Only invitations into a new level of creativity: breaking patterns and allowing new ones to emerge.

4. Make everyone else look good. You do not have to defend or justify yourself or your position - others will do that for you and you do that for others.

5. Be changed by what is said.Accept your reaction as an opportunity to take a new or expanded perspective to inspire new ideas.

6. Keep the energy going.No matter what is given, or what happens, accept it and keep moving.

7. Serve the good of the whole.Always carry the question, "How can I best serve this situation?"

8. Yes and ... Fully accept what is happening and what is being offered, and add a NEW piece of information - that is what allows it to be adaptive, move forward and stay generative.

Inspired by 7 Basic Improv Principles with thanks to Michelle James (creativeemergence.com)

creative jammin’ principles

"If at first, the idea is not absurd, then

there is no hope for it." - Albert Einstein

why use a human-centred design approach?

“Because it can help your organization connect better with the people you serve. It can transform data into actionable ideas. it can help you to see new opportunities. It can help to increase the speed and effectiveness of creating new solutions.” !

http://www.ideo.com/work/human-centered-design-toolkit/

http://www.nitibhan.com/2013/01/reflections-on-design-thinking-for.html

https://dschool.stanford.edu/

shaping great ideas

1. Start with why. Why are you doing this? What do you believe you can change? What do you believe you can make different/better/easier? What do you believe is possible?

2. Build your understanding of the context. Observe. Listen. Learn. Enquire.

3. Identify your target audience. Who are you designing your service or product for? Be specific it’s not everybody.

4. Get to know your target audience.Seek to understand their needs and aspirations, what motivates them and their challenges. Develop user personas to provide valuable insights.

5. Identify what problem you are solving for your target audience.

How does your idea help them to get what they need or what they value? How does it help them to overcome challenges and barriers?

6. Prototype and test ideas

Gain insights into customers’ needs by designing and deploying the smallest amount of functionality possible (AKA your minimum viable product/service). You can then evolve the solution based on the insights provided by early adopters.

START WITH

WHY

People don’t buy what you do they buy why you do it. ~ Simon Sinek

Less than a third of Australians are getting

enough physical activity to benefit their health.

This can lead to increased risks of chronic disease and mental ill health, and has been estimated

to cost the Australian economy a total of $13.8 billion each year.

Increasing participation in physical activity has health, social and economic benefits. As well as the health gains to

be made by preventing chronic disease, the benefits include promoting mental wellbeing and social connections, and

increasing productivity.

Why are you here?

What are you currently working on in relation to sport & physical activity?

what are trends?

A trend is defined as an important pattern of social, economic or environmental activity that will play out in the future.

A megatrend is defined as a major shift in environmental, social and economic conditions that will substantially alter the way people live. Megatrends occur at the intersection of multiple trends.

exploring the future

THE FUTURE OF AUSTRALIAN SPORT SIX MEGATRENDS SHAPING THE SPORTS SECTOR

Probable

Plausible

Preferable

Possible

Scenarios

Wildcard

“The more people are locked into committed & contracted activities the more time fragmented they become. Consequently they seek, often serendipitous, opportunities to play or watch sport that fit into a busy schedule.”

1. A PERFECT FIT

Participation rates in aerobics, running, walking, along

with gym membership, have all risen sharply over the

past decade while participation rates for many

organised sports have held constant or declined.

People are increasingly playing sport to get fit, rather

than getting fit to play sport.

For such people the notion of winning is changing.

They are more concerned with beating a personal

time or fitness target than beating a competitor.

“Adventure sports provide people with an opportunity

to break free”

The rise of lifestyle, adventure and alternative sports which are particularly popular with younger generations. These sports typically involve complex, advanced skills and have some element of inherent danger and/or thrill seeking.

They are also characterised by a strong lifestyle element and participants often obtain cultural self-identity and self-expression through these sports. These sports are likely to attract participants through generational change and greater awareness via online content (e.g. YouTube, Facebook, Twitter).

There is strong viewer demand for extreme sports videos on the internet and television. These sports are also finding their way into the Olympic Games with the most recent addition being BMX cycling introduced at the 2008 Beijing Olympics. International associations for skateboarding and rock climbing are making substantial efforts to have these included as Olympic sports in the future.

2. FROM EXTREME TO MAINSTREAM

“The Homeless World Cup really changed my life and introduced me to a whole new culture and whole new world.”

The broader benefits of sport are being increasingly recognised by governments, companies and communities. Sport can help achieve mental and physical health, crime prevention, social development and international cooperation objectives.

Sport for children and adults is an effective means of helping to reduce the rising rates of obesity and chronic illness. If managed appropriately, it can be an effective mechanism to help achieve social inclusion for marginalised groups and reduce crime rates.

Sport can also build bridges to other countries and achieve overseas aid, peace, development and foreign policy objectives.

3. MORE THAN JUST SPORT

“It's not the disability that defines you; its how you deal with the challenges the disability presents you with. We have an obligation to the abilities we DO have, not the disability”

Currently 14% of Australians are over 65. This is forecast to reach 25% by 2056.

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18.5% of Australians have a disability and 52% of people over 60 have a disability.

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25% of Australians are foreign-born and Australia will become more multicultural in the future. Different cultures have different sporting preferences and recreation habits.

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This will change the types of sports we play and how we play them. To retain strong participation rates, sports of the future will need to cater for senior citizens.

4. EVERYBODY’S GAME

The last Asian Games were held in 2010 Guangzhou, China and featured 9,704 athletes from 45 nations competing over 16 days in 42 sports and 58 disciplines at 476 events, supported by 60,000 volunteers.

Population and income growth throughout Asia will create tougher competition and new opportunities for Australia both on the sports field and in the sports business environment.

Asian countries are investing heavily in sports capabilities and, especially in the case of China, have rapidly improved gold medal outcomes at the Olympics over recent decades.

As disposable incomes grow, the populations of Asian countries are becoming more interested in sport. This may create new markets for sports television, sports tourism, sports equipment, sports services and sports events.

5. NEW WEALTH, NEW TALENT

“Basketballer Andrew Bogut tops Aussie athletes on young rich list”

Market forces are likely to exert greater pressure on sport in the future. In some sports, elite athletes have had considerable pay rises and large sponsorship deals. This has not occurred in other sports.

Sports with high salaries may draw athletes away from those with lower salaries.

Loosely organised community sports associations are likely to be replaced by organisations with corporate structures and more formal governance systems in light of market pressures.

The cost of participating in sport is rising and this is a participation barrier for many people.

6. TRACKSUITS TO BUSINESS SUITS

Themes & Drivers

Technology

Organisation

Tribes & Trust

Experience

Now

“Experiences in the sharing economy derive their value from that unique personal experience from local experts that customers typically cannot get

from large corporations.”

“The currency of the new economy is trust”

“Shaping serendipity”

Fondo is a mindset. While there is a concrete goal associated with completion, a truly successful fondo means doing more than just covering the distance requirement. It means deviating from the normal routine. It means going on an adventure.

Strava is a community of athletes from all over the world. We are a tribe. Alone or together, we strive. Strava lets you experience what we call social fitness - connecting and

competing with each other via mobile and online apps. No matter the

weather, day after day, we prove ourselves.

LARPing

joggling

aerial yoga

slacking

chess boxing

swamp soccer

wife carrying

octopush

bossaball

extreme ironing

Themes & Drivers

Technology

Organisation

Tribes

Experience

Now

WORLD CAFÉ

WORLD CAFÉ ROUND ONE

What trends are you noticing in your community, club or sport?

1. In technology?

2. In interests and behaviour?

MARKET SEGMENTATION STUDY AUSTRALIAN SPORTS COMMISSION

http://www.ausport.gov.au/information/nsr/market_segmentation

ASC market research• The Australian Sports Commission (ASC) in consultation

with sport sector partners identified a need for research to better understand what is driving the Australian community’s participation in sport and other types of physical activities.

• Market Segmentation involves dividing a market into groups of people/consumers with similar needs, attitudes and behaviours.

The purpose of the Market Segmentation Study for both Adults and Children was to uncover, explore, identify and clearly articulate the different motivations, attitudes, needs and barriers that influence people’s decisions and behaviours in relation to sport and, in particular, participation in club-based sport.

The study is designed to help clubs understand the market and more effectively target their approaches to particular segments.

ASC market research

MARKET SEGMENTS ADULTS

key insights1. Sport delivery that focuses on competition rather than fun and

enjoyment

2. A lack of flexibility around the scheduling of sport in traditional sporting clubs

3. Organising individuals and teams according to talent rather than retaining friendship groups

4. Limited opportunities for people with limited sports competency to join sporting clubs

5. Self-consciousness amongst adolescents and embarrassment by their lack of sporting ability.

market segments: adultsThe Study identifies ten consumer segments among the Australian adult population.

Current club member segments:

1. Loyalists

2. Socially Engaged

3. Sport Driven

4. Apathetic Clubbers

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Non-club member segments:

5. Sidelined Sportsters

6. Club Wary

7. Ponderers

8. Self Focused

9. Sport Indifferent

10. Sport Atheists

segments of non-club membersSegments with high potential for acquisition:

5. Sidelined Sportsters

6. Club Wary

7. Ponderers

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sidelined sportsters

sidelined sportstersSidelined Sportsters are into sport and value the opportunity it provides to have some personal time, relax and break their routine. They particularly enjoy being part of sports teams, with the camaraderie and friendships it engenders. The competitive aspect of sport is also a key component in their enjoyment.

They would be quite comfortable at sports clubs and with their ability to hold their own in a sporting context. They were often members of clubs as children (even up to adulthood) and it will not have always been their choice to stop but rather their changing circumstances.

They retain a very positive perspective on clubs and the social and physical benefits of being involved. What they need is greater flexibility from clubs, but they don’t necessarily see this as a club’s responsibility. They see it as being their barrier, that they simply have other priorities and they cannot commit as much time or money as they might have in the past.

This is a key target group for acquisition as they have all the hallmarks of keen but lapsed sports club members. Indeed they may have been Loyalists or Socially Engaged when they were younger or before they stopped being a member. Additionally, given their interest in sport overall, there may be opportunities to attract this segment with products outside of the traditional club offer that address concerns with time and cost commitments.

club wary

club waryThe Club Wary are very positive about sports, though they want to enjoy their sport at a slightly less serious and competitive level. It is as much about challenging themselves and doing something active with friends.

Club Wary are not particularly critical of clubs but from past experiences as members, they have some reservations. While they appreciate the social and emotional benefits that clubs can offer, they see clubs as requiring significant commitment and lacking in flexibility. The Club Wary do not always feel they will fit in at clubs and can be slightly self conscious about playing sport with others. These are not unlike Sport Driven (who are club members) in that they would prefer not to get heavily involved in the social and administrative aspects of the club, instead their preference is just for sports and facilities. There are more multicultural members in this segment than in others.

The Club Wary are a realistic target for acquisition, but clubs need to be proactive in seeking them out and communicating with them. They want to get more involved in sports clubs but often don’t know where to find information. Direct mail (inviting them to a demonstration) and local newspapers are ideal sources coupled with easily accessible online information.

To attract this segment, clubs and or sporting opportunities beyond the traditional club structure will need to avoid a sense of over commitment or competition (both in time and cost) and obligation when messaging and in the products offered.

ponderers

ponderersOften married with children at home, they are active people but commitments to work and family take up much of their time. They fit in a reasonable amount of physical activity but this is mainly recreational and focused on activity that can be done alone and often on an ad hoc /irregular basis. Essentially, they try and do activity around other commitments.

They do not need to be convinced about the benefits of sport and physical exercise and they derive strong personal satisfaction and achievement from participation. Typically they were members of clubs into adulthood, until for practical reasons they felt they had to give up. They have a fairly positive view of clubs both socially and as a way to support health and fitness but they will be weighing this up against the time and cost involved in being a member.

Though less competitive than many other segments, most show at least some interest in joining clubs. Clubs can be seen as a way to escape their normal routine, and membership would be embraced with flexible participation and cost options. Encouraging membership is about convincing them they can join without the fear of neglecting their other commitments. Additionally, there may be opportunities to attract this segment with products outside of the traditional club offer that address concerns with time and cost commitments but provide an avenue to encourage fitness and sport participation.

MARKET SEGMENTS CHILDREN

key insights1. providing sport delivery that focuses on fun and enjoyment

rather than competition 2. providing products and services that are inclusive; promote equal

treatment; and focus on fun and participation regardless of skill level and ability

3. providing a variety of pricing packages and different types of membership that allow for flexibility of attendance and time commitment

4. identifying the potential for growth opportunities with regards to sport club membership by understanding the needs of different segments and the products they may be attracted to

segments of existing club members

segments of non-club members

thrifty enthusiasts

The Thrifty Enthusiasts make up around one in 20 Australians aged five to 13 years and are the smallest ofthe non-club member segments. They are very positive about physical activity and sport in terms of the physical, mental, social and self improvement benefits, and don’t personally have any barriers to sport participation. While they don’t do physical activity with a club, most do organised physical activity through other organisations, school or courses. They are also participating frequently — five times a week on average. Similarly, parents of the Thrifty Enthusiasts are very positive towards clubs despite only one in 10 being current members.

This segment has high acquisition potential, with 80 per cent interested in future club membership (the same number have been members in the past). There are few perceptual barriers to joining a club, however cost of participating in club-based sport is a barrier.

To appeal to this segment, clubs should consider products that centre on making club-based sport more accessible through flexible membership pricing options, two-for-one memberships and providing value for money in terms of multiple sports. More flexibility with participation times is also appealing for parents. Children in this segment — as well as their parents — need to feel that clubs are inclusive and promote equality regardless of skill level.

ponderers

ponderersPonderers make up one in five Australian children aged five to 13 years. They are less likely to come from higher income households (mostly under $70k per annum) and are over-represented by the culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD).

Ponderers are generally less active in sport than other children and are less likely to do organised activities (three in five) however most do participate in physical activity for exercise or recreation. In general, Ponderers have relatively positive attitudes toward sport especially in terms of the fun and social elements of sport participation.

While Ponderers don’t need to be convinced about the benefits of sport, they do have some reservations about clubs being too authoritative and competitive — in turn taking the fun out of sport. Their parents are less engaged in clubs and their perceptual barriers will need to be addressed as they are likely to perceive clubs to be inflexible and demanding of time beyond sport. Parents may also have concerns about the costs of participating in club-based sport.

Ponderers are a potential segment for acquisition as they show a high interest in sport involvement if they had information on how to go about it, as well as high interest in club membership (three in five).

For this segment, clubs will need to provide opportunities for fun and social participation without overt competitiveness. They must also address practical concerns about cost and commitment.

“In line with the changing consumer preferences, both Market Segmentation Studies identified that sports will need to adapt their offerings if they are to stay relevant to the Australian consumer.”

design thinking

what are personas?Personas are fictional representations of your target audience that help you to understand them better. Well thought out and well researched personas make it easier for you to design and deliver services that meet your target audience’s specific needs and expectations, while addressing their unique challenges and communicating in their language. !

The strongest personas are based on market research in combination with insights gathered through conversations, surveys and interviews with your target audience.

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What’s their history in relationship to sport & physical activity?

What’s their routine? Daily, weekly, monthly, annually?

What are their personal goals around health & fitness? What motivates them?

What are the challenges they face to engaging in physical activity? What are the constraints/barriers?

What sort of experience are they looking for? What sort of interaction do they want to have with others/you?

What sort of thing might you expect them to say about their ideal experience and why they love it?

LIGHTNING TALKS

"Lean Startup" is a system for developing a business or product in the most efficient way possible to reduce the risk of failure. It is an approach for launching businesses and products that treats all product and business ideas as assumptions (or hypotheses) that must be validated by rapid experimentation in the marketplace. The approach relies on scientific experimentation, iterative product releases, and customers feedback to generate validated learning.

“The fundamental activity of a startup is to turn ideas into products, measure how customers respond, and then learn whether to pivot or persevere. All successful startup processes should be geared to accelerate that feedback loop.”

lean startupThe core idea is validated learning. Otherwise we ‘achieve failure’ building something that no one wants.

The key is to identify assumptions - would people actually buy or do this? Not by building the whole product, but by building a Minimum Viable Product (MVP).

“..the minimum viable product is a test of a specific set of hypotheses, with a goal of proving or disproving them as quickly as possible. One of the most important of these hypotheses is always: what will the customer care about? How will they define quality?”

“By the time that product is ready to be distributed widely, it will already have established customers.”

The challenge is to identify an experiment that will test the assumption

- this is validated learning.

What are your assumptions?

What experiments could you do to test your assumptions?

shaping great ideas

1. Start with why. Why are you doing this? What do you believe you can change? What do you believe you can make different/better/easier? What do you believe is possible?

2. Build your understanding of the context. Observe. Listen. Learn. Enquire.

3. Identify your target audience. Who are you designing your service or product for? Be specific it’s not everybody.

4. Get to know your target audience.Seek to understand their needs and aspirations, what motivates them and their challenges. Develop user personas to provide valuable insights.

5. Identify what problem you are solving for your target audience.

How does your idea help them to get what they need or what they value? How does it help them to overcome challenges and barriers?

6. Prototype and test ideas

Gain insights into customers’ needs by designing and deploying the smallest amount of functionality possible (AKA your minimum viable product/service). You can then evolve the solution based on the insights provided by early adopters.

what’s next?1. Apply. Find out all you need to know and submit your application for the VicHealth Innovation Challenge at

http://challenge.vichealth.vic.gov.au/

Get in quick as applications close Friday 29 August.

2. Join us for the Rapid Prototype Workshop nextTuesday 12 August. Register here. It’s FREE!

3. Get out there and start testing your ideas!

thanks for joining us!

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