+ All Categories
Home > Documents > Viewpoint Q4 11

Viewpoint Q4 11

Date post: 06-Apr-2018
Category:
Upload: rajusme
View: 222 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend

of 12

Transcript
  • 8/3/2019 Viewpoint Q4 11

    1/12

    GREATER BOSTONMARKET VIEWPOINTTH QUARTER

    Accelerating success.

  • 8/3/2019 Viewpoint Q4 11

    2/12

    The vacancy rate in the Boston of ce market dropped one

    percentage point in rom .% to .%as over ,

    square eet o positive absorption was recorded. Although the

    recovery has occurred at a more gradual pace than most market

    observers would like, the act that this ollows three consecutiveyears o negative absorption is a signal that market conditions are

    stabilizing.

    The perormance gap between the Financial District and Back

    Bay submarkets persists, with vacancy rates o .% and .%,

    respectively. There are even ewer options or Class A space in

    the Back Bay, where the vacancy rate is .% at year-end.

    Key statistics at the end o include:

    MarketSupply SF

    (s)Vacancy

    Rate Absorption

    SF (s)

    Total Boston* 60,562 15.8% 608

    Back Bay 11,982 6.2% 298

    Financial District 33,597 19.4% 39

    Charlestown 2,707 8.5% 77

    Crosstown 1,122 6.3% 16

    Fenway/Kenmore 1,826 13.6% (46)

    North Station 1,882 14.5% 73

    Seaport 6,262 19.5% 178

    South Station 1,184 23.6% (27)

    * includes sublease space

    SUPPLY AND DEMAND

    Supply totals over million square eet, with . million square

    eet or %, located in the core Financial District and Back Bay

    submarkets.

    At the end o the ourth quarter there were approximately

    tenants in the market seeking an aggregate o over million

    square eet o of ce space. Although the median requirement

    is , square eet, some o the larger requirements include:

    Tenant SF Industry

    State Street Bank 1,000,000 Financial Services

    Blue Cross Blue Shield oMassachusetts

    350,000 Health Care/Medical

    Brown Brothers Harriman 300,000 Financial Services

    Mintz Levin 225,000 Legal

    Lexington Insurance 175,000 Insurance

    Cambridge Associates 150,000 Investment Advisory

    Iron Mountain 100,000 Inormation Management Services

    VELOCITY

    Velocity (signed lease activity) totaled over million square

    eet in , and was largely dominated by Vertex

    Pharmaceuticals second quarter lease or . million square

    eet o build-to-suit of ce and lab space at the Fan Pier

    development.

    With the exception o the Vertex lease and Pioneer

    Investments third quarter renewal or , square eet a

    State Street, the remainder o leases executed in

    were less than , square eet in size.

    Although the economic recovery has been gradual and grow

    rom Bostons existing tenant base was modest during the

    year, it is notable that there were more than companies

    totaling over . million square eet that migrated to the Bostmarket rom Cambridge or suburban locations in . Thes

    ranged in size rom less than , square eet to the Vertex

    transaction, with some o the larger companies including:

    Tenant Prior Location New Location SF

    Vertex Pharmaceuticals Cambridge Seaport 1,100,00

    Brightcove Cambridge Financial District 80,00

    CBIZ Toas Cambridge Back Bay 40,00

    Jones Day New to Market Financial District 35,00

    Allen & Gerritsen Watertown Seaport 33,20

    Finnegan Henderson,Farabow, Garret & Dunner

    Cambridge Seaport 33,00

    W2 Racepoint Waltham Financial District 32,00

    Heartland Robotics Cambridge Seaport 18,40

    Latham & Watkins New to Market Back Bay 18,00

    Elysium Digital Cambridge Financial District 18,00

    ABSORPTION AND VACANCY

    The Back Bay outperormed the rest o the market in , a

    this was particularly true or Class A buildings.

    The Seaport District also had a strong showing in , withnearly , square eet o positive absorption. This was

    split almost evenly between the Class A and Class B segmen

    o the submarket and driven in large part by an inux o new

    tenants rom Cambridge and the suburbs. The City is

    promoting the submarket as the Innovation District and cit

    over new businesses moving to the area since the initiativ

    was launched in .

    MARKET VIEWPOINT | Q

    p. | Colliers International

    Boston Overview

  • 8/3/2019 Viewpoint Q4 11

    3/12

    Assuming relatively modest absorption over the next ew

    years, the vacancy rate will likely remain above % or the

    overall market through the orecast period. Back Bay will

    likely remain the statistical exception, with single-digit vacancy

    rates. The projection includes the addition o . million squareeet to the of ce supply in , representing Liberty Mutuals

    new headquarters in the Back Bay and the two Vertex

    buildings in the Seaport District.

    RENTAL RATES

    Average asking rents have been relatively at since the latter

    hal o , but are beginning to show some incremental

    growth in certain segments o the market. Back Bay landlords

    began to push rental rates during the ourth quarter or Class

    A and Class B buildings. The Seaport District and select

    Financial District properties, particularly high-rise tower

    locations are also beginning to see some moderate growth in

    rents.

    Rents have stabilized in the Financial District, but a surplus o

    low-rise space in the Class A towers is subduing rental growth

    in this segment o the market.

    The spread between asking rents in various segments o the

    market is depicted in the ollowing table.

    Space Type Rental Range/SF

    Class A high rise $55 - $75

    Class A mid rise $45 - $55

    Class A low rise $40 - $45

    Class B $25 - $35

    TRENDS

    The vacancy rate peaked in , and should gradually decli

    over the next ew years.

    Positive absorption is anticipated over the - orecaperiod.

    Tenant interest in the Seaport Innovation District will rema

    strong in .

    Less is more as tenants ocus on reduced occupancy costs

    and improved ef ciency.

    Rents will continue to be segmented between various classe

    o space.

    Projected Vacancy & Absorption

    -,

    -,

    -,

    -

    ,

    ,

    ,

    %

    %

    %

    %

    %

    SF(

    Thous

    ands)

    Total BostonVacancy Rate

    Back BayVacancy Rate

    .%

    Financial DistrictVacancy Rate

    Total BostonAbsorption

    MARKET VIEWPOINT | Q

    Colliers International | pCONTACT: Mary Sullivan Kelly | [email protected]

  • 8/3/2019 Viewpoint Q4 11

    4/12

    Cambridge was an active market in , riding a dual wave o

    growth rom lie sciences and technology companies. The city has

    long been acknowledged as a global hub or these sectors, but the

    attraction o the Kendall Square area has never been more evident

    than over the past year with pharmaceutical and biotechnologyleaders and technology giants making signicant lease

    commitments or new space as they try to gain greater access to

    the resources and inrastructure surrounding MIT, and as they

    look to tap into one o the most talented and deep labor pools in

    the world.

    The lie sciences sector is driving signicant new building in East

    Cambridge, with eight buildings totaling just under million

    square eet under constructionthe most new lab and of ce

    space under construction in the market at a given time since

    . In total, over million square eet o new leases were

    signed during the year, including . million square eet o build-

    to-suits or lie sciences organizations.

    The vacancy rate in Cambridges .-million-square-oot of ce

    and lab market dropped rom .% to .% over the course o

    with , square eet o positive absorption, ,

    square eet o which occurred during the ourth quarter. Not yet

    reected in the statistics is the positive absorption related to the

    build-to-suit lease activity described above, which will be recorded

    upon completion o the buildings.

    Key statistics at the end o include:

    MarketSupply SF

    (s)Vacancy

    Rate

    Absorption SF(s)

    Q YTD

    Total Cambridge* 19,813 12.9% 197 218

    Of ce 10,256 10.0% 83 244

    Lab 8,774 17.0% 110 (42)

    * includes R&D space

    OFFICE MARKET

    The vacancy rate in the .-million-square-oot of ce marketdropped rom .% to .% over the course o , as a result

    o , square eet o positive absorption. While these are

    relatively healthy statistics rom a landlords point o view,

    segments o the market, such as East Cambridge/Kendall Square

    are even tighter than the vacancy rate would imply, as there are

    several leases pending and much o the available space is in one

    building, RREEFs Main Street.

    Velocity (signed lease activity) totaled over . million square eet

    during . Large pharmaceutical and biotech companies were

    the most signicant drivers o velocity, accounting or ov

    , square eet, ollowed by technology companies w

    approximately , square eet.

    The largest leases signed during are listed below:

    Tenant Address SF

    Biogen Idec 241 Binney Street (bts) 300,000

    Biogen Idec 17 Cambridge Center (bts) 190,000

    Pegasystems One Rogers Street (r) (e) 160,000

    Google 4 Cambridge Center (e) 80,000

    Google 3 Cambridge Center (e) 60,000

    (bts) build-to-suit (r) relocation (e) expansion

    Demand during the year was driven by larger, strong-cre

    companies and institutions such as Google, Genzyme/Sano

    Nokia, Millennium and MIT, contributing to pockets o extrem

    tightness in the Kendall Square submarket. At the close o

    tenants in the market totaled approximately , square e

    o demand.

    The tight supply and high rents have orced many younger, co

    conscious technology companies to consider of ce optio

    outside o East Cambridge, with the up and coming Innovati

    District in Bostons Seaport area being the most popu

    alternative. Below is a list o notable East Cambridge compan

    that moved, or are seriously considering a move, to Bosto

    Seaport District.

    Tenant SF Status

    Brightcove 80,000 Atlantic Whar

    Zip Car 45,000 Active

    SCVNGR 30,000 Signed LOI

    ChoiceStream 18,000 Active

    amaPR 10,000 Liberty Whar

    Rents, which had been airly steady or the rst three quarters

    , spiked during the ourth quarter with top o the mark

    asking rents moving rom - per square oot to psquare oot almost overnight. Generally, asking rents in E

    Cambridge are up to % compared to a year ago, depend

    on the building.

    Direct Asking Rents PSF

    Space Type - Location Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011

    Class A East Cambridge $30-$45 $35-$48 $40 - $5

    Class B East Cambridge $28-$33 $30-$35 $35 - $4

    Class A Alewie $24-$28 $24-$28 $26 - $3

    MARKET VIEWPOINT | Q

    p. | Colliers International

    Cambridge Overview

  • 8/3/2019 Viewpoint Q4 11

    5/12

    LAB MARKET

    The .-million-square-oot lab market nished with a

    deceivingly high vacancy rate o .%, down rom the third

    quarter rate o .%, but higher than the year-end rate o

    .%. Although the year ended on a positive note with positive

    absorption in the ourth quarter o , square eet, absorption

    was negative , square eet or the year. While the statistics

    seem indicative o an uneventul year, they do not present a ull

    measure o the current market activity, as the . million square

    eet o lab space under construction will not be accounted or

    until construction completion occurs.

    For the rst time in many years, the availability o Class A existing

    lab space increased, giving tenants multiple options. Even more

    Class A space can be expected to become available over the next

    two years when Vertex vacates its approximately , squareeet and some other signicant leases are not renewed. The chart

    below depicts the breakdown o available lab space by type and

    quality.

    Space Type SF Available % of Available Space

    Class A Biotech-Ready Shell 754,000 50%

    Class A Existing Lab 389,000 26%

    Class B Existing Lab 205,000 14%

    Obsolete Lab 152,000 10%

    Totals 1,500,000 100%

    Transaction velocity in the lab market totaled approximately

    ,, square eet during , over million square eet o

    which represented growth.

    Two signicant build-to-suit lab leases were signed in . The

    largest transaction was the Broad Institutes ground lease or a

    ,-square-oot build-to-suit research acility located

    physically adjacent and connected to the Broads headquarters.

    But perhaps the most notable transaction was Pzers build-to-

    suit lease or , square eet with MIT at Main Street on

    the Osborne Triangle. Pzer plans to move signicant researchoperations rom its company-owned Groton, Connecticut campus

    to a site that is essentially on the MIT campus.

    In addition to these build-to-suit leases, Novartis started

    construction on two new lab and of ce buildings totaling

    approximately , square eet on land that it leases rom

    MIT, also located on the Osborne Triangle, at Massachusetts

    Avenue and Windsor Street.

    The largest lab leases signed during the year ollow:

    Tenant Address SF

    Broad Institute 75 Ames Street 250,000 (bts)

    Pzer 610 Main Street 184,000 (bts)

    Vertex Pharmaceuticals 88 Sidney Street 145,300 (r)

    Quest Diagnostics 415 Massachusetts Avenue 114,000 (r)

    Ariad 26 Landsdowne 100,400 (r)

    Pzer 700 Main Street 100,000

    (bts) build-to-suit (r) relocation

    At the close o , tenants in the market represent

    approximately . million square eet o demand driven prima

    by larger, emerging biotech and pharma users. As was the ca

    throughout , demand rom small- to medium-sized biote

    companies remains relatively light.

    Tenants seeking and willing to pay or Class A lab space have tmost options in the Cambridge market. Younger biotech compan

    looking to nd rents in the s ps NNN range and below ha

    ewer options ( existing lab, shell), with most o the optio

    having sat vacant or several years. These dynamics have orc

    many o the early- to mid-stage companies to consider suburb

    alternatives. While not near the levels experienced in the pa

    mainly due to the lack o activity in this segment o the mark

    there were a handul o younger biotech companies (For

    Therapeutics, Quanterix, Blend Biosciences) that relocated to t

    suburbs in search o lower priced options. Larger tena

    (, to , square eet +) in East-Mid Cambridge ato wait up to months or delivery have ten options ( exist

    lab, shell, build-to-suit) with six dierent landlords.

    The spread between asking rents in various segments o t

    market is depicted below:

    Direct Asking Rents PSF, NNN

    Space Type - Location Q4 2011

    Class A Existing - East Cambridge $50 - $65

    Class A Shell - East Cambridge $58 - $70

    Class B Existing/Shell - East Cambridge $35 - $48

    Class B Existing Alewie $28 - $35

    TRENDS

    The time is now or a speculative of ce building in Kendall

    Square.

    There will be greater availability o existing Class A lab spac

    over the next two plus years.

    Expect more build-to-suit activity rom lie science companie

    MARKET VIEWPOINT | Q

    Colliers International | pCONTACT: Mary Sullivan Kelly | [email protected]

  • 8/3/2019 Viewpoint Q4 11

    6/12

    The suburban Boston of ce and R&D market was statistically at

    in , with the vacancy rate virtually unchanged over the course

    o the year, closing the ourth quarter at .%. While there were

    pockets o positive absorption in the northern submarkets, and

    Route Northwest in particular, this was outweighed by nearly, square eet o negative absorption in the Route

    West submarket. The Route West submarket has been hit

    hard by a handul o large corporate consolidations, the most

    recent being Fidelitys decision to vacate over , square

    eet at its Puritan Way, Marlborough campus.

    Aggregate statistics or the of ce and R&D market are provided

    below:

    MarketSupply SF

    (s)Vacancy

    Rate

    Absorption SF(s)

    Q YTDSuburban Boston 128,529 21.0% (267) 30

    Inner Suburbs 5,850 15.8% 13 (82)

    Route 128 73,099 18.5% 331 416

    Route 495 47,566 25.8% (765) (261)

    Worcester 2,014 15.3% (1) (43)

    SUPPLY AND DEMAND

    The suburban of ce and R&D market totals . million

    square eet, with perormance and product varying rom one

    submarket to the next. The our Route submarkets reporta combined vacancy rate o .%, compared to .% in the

    three Route submarkets.

    Although the median suburban requirement is , square

    eet, there are some sizeable tenants in the market with

    potential requirements over the next to months,

    including:

    Tenant SF Industry Target Market

    TJX Companies 1,000,000 RetailRoutes 495 West/128 Mass Pike

    Keurig 500,000 Consumer Products Route 128 North

    NetApp 400,000 Computer Sotwareand Services

    Route 128 Mass Pike

    Kronos 350,000Computer Sotwareand Services Route 495 North

    Athenahealth 250,000 Electronic HealthRecords

    Inner Suburbs/Route 128 Mass Pike

    Dunkin Brands 210,000 RetailRoutes 128 South/128 Mass Pike

    Converse 200,000 Retail Route 495 North

    Arbella Insurance 180,000 Insurance Route 128 South

    VELOCITY

    Velocity (signed lease activity) totaled over million square ee

    , with the majority o transactions less than , squa

    eet in size. Some o the larger transactions executed during

    year included:

    Tenant Address SF

    Motorola 900 Chelmsord Street, Lowell 194,000

    The Shaw Group 150 Royall Street, Canton 190,000

    NxStage Medical 439 South Union Street, Lawrence 140,000

    E Ink 1000 Technology Park Drive, Bil ler ica 139,000

    Avaya 600 Technology Park Drive, Billerica 135,000

    Vecco Solar 558 Clark Road, Tewksbury 90,000

    ABSORPTION AND VACANCY

    The suburban vacancy rate has been at a virtual standstill o

    the past two years, hovering around %. The year was

    statistically unremarkable, with a meager , square ee

    o positive absorption.

    Despite the sluggish absorption in aggregate, the Route

    Northwest submarket recorded over , square eet o

    positive absorption in , with Burlington alone accounting

    or , square eet. Class A buildings in Burlington we

    able to outperorm some o their suburban counterparts due

    a strong amenity base and close proximity to major highway

    (Routes and , I-).

    Negative absorption o , square eet in the Route

    West submarket is largely attributable to Fidelity vacating ov

    , square eet at and Puritan Way,

    Marlborough. Although the submarket has been hit hard by a

    Historical Vacancy and AbsorptionOfce and R&D

    -,

    -,

    -,

    -,

    -,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    %

    %

    SF

    (Thousands)

    Total Vacancy

    Absorption

    MARKET VIEWPOINT | Q

    p. | Colliers International

    Suburban Overview

  • 8/3/2019 Viewpoint Q4 11

    7/12

    handul o large campus consolidations and the vacancy rate is

    %, the year ended on a positive note with ourth quarter

    absorption o , square eet.

    OFFICE RENTAL RATES

    Weighted average Class A of ce rents range rom . per

    square oot in the Route West submarket to - in

    the Mass Pike and Inner Suburban submarkets.

    Rents were generally stable during and will be held in

    check so long as the vacancy rate tops %.

    Select landlords that were successul in their leasing

    campaigns during are beginning to push rents in premier

    Class A buildings, but any across-the-board increases are

    unlikely in the near term.

    TRENDS

    Small- to mid-sized users are the most active segment o the

    market headed into .

    Larger tenants (over , square eet) will seek to do

    more with less. Ef ciency and cost control are critical.

    A marginal decrease in the vacancy rate is expected in ,

    with expansion primarily rom small businesses and start-ups.

    Select Class A, amenity-rich buildings located along thestretch rom Burlington to Needham and close to Route

    will be able to realize rental growth in .

    MARKET VIEWPOINT | Q

    Colliers International | CONTACT: Mary Sullivan Kelly | [email protected]

  • 8/3/2019 Viewpoint Q4 11

    8/12

    INVESTMENT SALES

    Aggregate sale volume in totaled approximately . billion, or nearly twice the volume. The volume increased or all majo

    property types, as illustrated below.

    Boston remains one o a select group o sought-ater coastal cities considered sae bets due to its a uent population, knowledge-

    based economy, institutional demand drivers and inherent constraints on new supply.

    Sale volume and pricing was dominated by und managers, and in particular by core institutional investors. Given the current low-

    interest rate environment and relative to alternative asset classes, real estate perormed well or this buyer sector in . With man

    investors ocused on downside protection versus upside potential during times o volatility, Boston is seen as a sae harbor.

    For much o the year, private buyers were rustrated by the lack o distress at the opportunistic end o the spectrum and aggressivepricing at the core end o the spectrum. Foreign investment was limited to a ew transactions, the largest o which was German und

    Jamestowns Newbury Street, Boston portolio acquisition.

    The macro national trends are clear that troubled loans need to be resolved or disposed. Locally, rising property values and an

    abundance o available equity or re-capitalization has mitigated the distress and thus the opportunities. However, many loans

    temporarily modied through restructures and/or extension during to are nearing the end o their modication period an

    may hit the market in .

    OFFICE

    Aggressive bidding on core downtown of ce assets continued during the ourth quarter. Notable transactions included two Class A

    trophy assetsExchange Place in the Financial District and One Exeter Plaza in the Back Bayselling at greater than persquare oot and at cap rates at or below %.

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    Pending

    Annual Sales Volume by Type

    Billions

    Multiamily Industrial Retail Suburban Ofce CBD Ofce

    MARKET VIEWPOINT | Q

    p. | Colliers International

    Capital Markets

  • 8/3/2019 Viewpoint Q4 11

    9/12

    Outside o Boston, ourth quarter transactions reect investor demand or well-located and well-leased properties with those in less

    avorable submarkets demanding increased yields. Among the ourth quarter trades were two sizable portolio transactions in

    Cambridge, including MetLies sale o Cambridge Place, a three-building of ce/lab complex, to BioMed Realty Trust or million

    or a .% cap rate. The ourth quarter also included the sale o the Campus at Marlborough, a ully-leased our-building portolio, at

    % cap rate, and the REO sale o Van De Graa drive in Burlington to user Oracle Corporation.

    Address/Property Name Buyer Seller Price Size (SF) $/SF

    Boston

    Exchange Place, 53 State Street UBS Brookeld Of ce Properties $610 million 1,194,000 $511

    One Exeter Plaza AEW Capital Management Ruben Companies $112 million 211,351 $530

    Cambridge

    Cambridge Place I-3, Cambridge (of ce/lab) BioMed Realty Trust MetLie $120 million 286,878 $418

    Campus at Marlborough (of ce) Hines Global REIT Eaton Vance Investment Managers $103 million 557,035 $185

    617 & 625 Concord Avenue; 20-26, 36 MoultonStreet; 77 Fawcett Street, Cambridge (of ce/ex)

    Goldman Sachs Cabot, Cabot, & Forbes $53.6 million 244,023 $219

    4 Van De Graa Drive, Burlington (of ce) Oracle Corporation Capmark Bank $16.5 million 93,000 $177

    20 Computer Drive, Haverhill (industrial) Paradigm Properties Suolk Advisors, LLC $15.5 million 203,818 $76

    RETAIL

    Boosted by a number o landmark transactions, ourth quarter retail sales were especially strong, comprising over two-thirds o

    total retail sales activity. The most notable o the ourth quarter transactions was the . million purchase by Jamestown

    Properties, a German und manager, o properties on or near Newbury Street totaling , square eet. The portolio was larg

    retail, but also included residential and of ce uses.

    Retail sales volume will start strong with Macquaries sale o Shoppers World in Framingham to a joint venture between

    Blackstone and DDR or million. Part o a -property portolio in which DDR owned a percentage o each center prior to sale,this sale is just one example o the numerous national portolio transactions that have become more common.

    Address/Property Name Buyer Seller Price Size (SF) $/S

    Boston

    Newbury Street Portolio Jamestown Urban Meritage/Taurus Investment Holdings $182.5 million 302,918 $602

    Faneuil Hall Marketplace Ashkenazy Acquisition Corp GGP, Inc. $140.0 million 201,656 $694

    350 Washington Street Invesco Real Estate Capital Partners $128.0 million 149,977 $853

    MULTIFAMILY

    The multiamily sector also nished the year strong. Throughout pricing or apartments was aggressive due to strong real esta

    undamentals and abundant nancing opportunities. The largest transaction o the quarter was JPIs sale o the ,-unit JeersonHills apartments in Framingham to Greystar Real Estate Partners at a .% cap rate. The Invesco sale o the Walden Park Apartmen

    in Cambridge to Equity Residential or . million is notable or its .% cap rate.

    Address/Property Name Buyer Seller Price # of Units $/Unit

    Jeerson Hills Apartments, Framingham Greystar Real Estate Partners JPI $128.0 million 1,020 $125,490

    Walden Park Apartments, Cambridge Equity Residential Invesco $64.9 million 232 $279,741

    200 Oak Point Drive, Oak Point, Middleborough Hometown America Saxon Real Estate Partners $55.0 million 870 $63,218

    MARKET VIEWPOINT | Q

    Colliers International | pCONTACT: Mary Sullivan Kelly | [email protected]

  • 8/3/2019 Viewpoint Q4 11

    10/12

    Annual Sales Volume by Type

    Seattle

    Phoe

    nix

    Riverside

    -Ontario

    SanFr

    ancis

    co

    Boston

    Detro

    it

    Atlan

    ta

    Housto

    n

    Washi

    ngto

    nDC

    Miam

    i

    Dalla

    s

    Phila

    delph

    ia

    Chica

    go

    LosAn

    geles

    New

    York

    % + Days Delinquent

    % Perorming Specially Serviced

    Source: Trepp, Colliers International

    DEBT

    is positioned to be a year with increased lender volume because o renance needs and an uptick in acquisitions. As banks

    continue to be a great source o to million dollar loans, lie companies are expected to increase their allocations to real estate

    and CMBS to re-emerge, both driving up competition or loans in .

    New England-based borrowers are very ortunate with the quality o our commercial banks and the act that most have a avorable

    view o real estate. For stabilized assets with proven sponsorship, banks have been waiving recourse requirements and providing

    %-% leverage with rates ranging rom high threes up to ve percent.

    In light o national statistics with respect to growing delinquencies and uncertainty regarding ballooning loan maturities, Boston is

    perorming substantially better than the rest o the country. The ollowing graph illustrates the CMBS loans currently delinquent or in

    special servicing in the largest of ce markets:

    The CMBS market was dealt a major setback in late July when Citigroup and Goldman Sachs were orced to cancel a . billion

    securitization. Only the strongest CMBS lenders that have the ability to utilize their balance sheet or that have built-in B-piece buyer

    will emerge rom this downturn. The already reduced pool o lenders in the CMBS market are quoting spreads to basis poi

    over the -year swap, which translates to all-in-rates between .% and .%. Even with higher rates than some other sources o

    permanent capital, CMBS shops are competitive when every last dollar counts or with assets in secondary or tertiary locations.

    Unlike CMBS, lie company delinquencies have remained extremely low, less than % during the downturn. Because o their prudent

    underwriting, lie companies have almost across the board increased their allocation or mortgages and increased exposure to the

    Northeast is a key goal or .

    MARKET VIEWPOINT | Q

    p. | Colliers International

    Capital Markets

  • 8/3/2019 Viewpoint Q4 11

    11/12

    TRENDS

    REITs raised billion in , the highest annual raise in the last years, and positioning REITS to be market makers in .

    The pipeline o new property oerings is expected to expand into , particularly or retail and industrial properties. Multiamily aCBD of ce will continue to experience the lowest cap rates, given core investor demand and the likelihood or income growth over th

    next ew years.

    For those loans that are maturing or underperorming, expect to see more debt restructuring and discounted payos in as

    lenders continue to clean up their balance sheets.

    Lie companies will continue to deliver certainty and be a preerred choice o capital or core and well located assets in .

    MARKET VIEWPOINT | Q

    Colliers International | pCONTACT: Mary Sullivan Kelly | [email protected]

  • 8/3/2019 Viewpoint Q4 11

    12/12

    Colliers International Federal StreetBoston, MA,

    The inormation contained herein has been obtained rom sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable eort has been made to

    ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed or any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their

    proessional advisors prior to acting on any o the material contained in this report. This publication is the copyrighted property o Colliers

    International and/or its licensor(s).

    C lli I t ti l All i ht d

    To be placed on our mailing list, please visit www.colliers.com/boston

    MARKETSQUARE FEET

    (SF) SUPPLY

    DIRECT SF

    AVAILABLE

    SUBLEASE SF

    AVAILABLEVACANCY*

    Q4 2011

    ABSORPTION

    YTD

    ABSORPTI

    BOSTON 60,561,709 8,497,416 1,078,625 15.8% 108,158 608,079

    Back Bay 11,981,716 603,151 139,041 6.2% 86,224 297,666

    Financial District 33,597,405 5,909,323 599,487 19.4% 16,303 38,640

    Charlestown 2,706,860 177,649 51,814 8.5% 42,343 76,736

    Crosstown 1,122,326 71,170 0 6.3% 5,202 16,546

    Fenway/Kenmore 1,826,057 138,173 111,000 13.6% 0 (45,761

    North Station 1,881,789 253,848 18,561 14.5% 18,096 72,898

    Seaport 6,261,539 1,097,207 126,379 19.5% (54,211) 178,366

    South Station 1,184,017 246,895 32,343 23.6% (5,799) (27,012

    CAMBRIDGE 19,813,110 2,275,183 284,877 12.9% 196,980 217,730

    Alewife Station/Route 2 2,756,411 365,674 15,000 13.8% 48,366 279,248

    East Cambridge 15,132,939 1,790,266 259,877 13.5% 149,000 (58,573

    Harvard Square/Mass Ave 1,923,760 119,243 10,000 6.7% (386) (2,945

    SUBURBS 128,528,885 23,963,004 3,086,314 21.0% 266,637 29,595

    Inner Suburbs 5,850,321 873,531 49,495 15.8% 12,704 (82,739

    Route 128 North 7,974,140 1,244,658 261,789 18.9% 3,797 157,816

    Route 128 Northwest 21,798,448 3,178,989 642,045 17.5% (255,363) 354,377

    Route 128 Mass Pike 28,318,820 4,587,813 516,920 18.0% 210,221 (56,173

    Route 128 South 15,007,596 2,850,427 271,932 20.8% 144,872 (39,711

    Route 495 North 25,138,162 5,348,760 559,628 23.5% 11,600 183,862

    Route 495 West 17,916,828 4,685,043 665,489 29.9% 132,247 (460,434

    Route 495 South 4,510,903 886,309 119,016 22.3% 7,684 15,460

    Worcester 2,013,667 307,474 0 15.3% (1,125) (42,863

    TOTAL 208,903,704 34,735,603 4,449,816 18.8% 571,775 855,404

    *Including sublease space

    CONTACT:Mary Sullivan KellySenior Vice President & Chie Research Of cer

    DIR + FAX +

    [email protected]

    Q STATISTICS | OFFICE/R&D

    Market Snapshot


Recommended