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Viral Marketing Strategies on Facebook

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Viral Marketing Strategies on Facebook Analysis, experimentations and case studies on initial seeding populations Ph.D. dissertation defended by Nasri Messarra, on Dec. 08, 2015 before the following jury: Anne Mione Professeur à l'Université de Montpellier Directeur de thèse Christine Balagué Maître de Conférences HDR, Telecom Ecole de Management, Paris Rapporteur Gilles Paché Professeur à l'Université d'Aix Marseille Rapporteur Frédéric Le Roy Professeur à l'Université de Montpellier Examinateur Gilles N'Goala Professeur à l'Université de Montpellier Examinateur Laurence Saglietto Maître de conférences HDR à l'Université de Nice Examinateur
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Viral Marketing Strategies on Facebook

Analysis, experimentations and case studies on initial seeding populations

Ph.D. dissertation defended by Nasri Messarra, on Dec. 08, 2015 before the following jury:

Anne Mione Professeur à l'Université de Montpellier

Directeur de thèse

Christine BalaguéMaître de Conférences HDR, Telecom Ecole de

Management, Paris

Rapporteur

Gilles PachéProfesseur à l'Université d'Aix Marseille

Rapporteur

Frédéric Le Roy Professeur à l'Université de Montpellier

Examinateur

Gilles N'GoalaProfesseur à l'Université de Montpellier

Examinateur

Laurence SagliettoMaître de conférences HDR à l'Université de Nice

Examinateur

2

Context

2

Contexte Littérature Problématique Méthode Résultats Discussion

• 1 400 000 000 users on Facebook (Social Bakers, 2015)• 936 000 000 daily active users (Social Bakers, 2015)

• Positive mobilisation: the “ice-bucket challenge”, 2 400 000 user generated videos on Facebook (Phing & Yazdanifard, 2014), $98 200 000 in donations against $2 700 000 usually (BBC News, 2014)

• Negative mobilisation: Pampers, Nestlé, Caribou, Bershka… (Fournier & Avery, 2011) – Procter & Gamble’s shares drop by 27% (Bloomberg, 2010)

• Brands have to consider the positive and the negative impact of virality on online social networks and identify the means to control marketing strategies in this new promising but dangerous environment.

Literature

3

Contexte Littérature Problématique Méthode Résultats Discussion

Graph theory (Euler, 1786; Harary, 1969) and its applications in sociology (Granovetter, 1973)

The value of a social network (Reed, 2001)

The diffusion of information (Hinz & al., 2011; Smith & al., 2014)

Virality (Hinz & al, 2001; Booth & Matic, 2001; Bampo & al., 2008)

Initial seeding populations (Hinz & al., 2011; Watts & Dodds, 2007; Liu-Thompkins, 2012)

Research Problem

4

Contexte Littérature Problématique Méthode Résultats Discussion

How to create initial seeding population to optimize viral marketing strategies on Facebook?

Viral MarketingStrategy

The Messenger

(Valente, 2010)

Message / Content

(Rowley, 2008)

Network Structure

(Bampo, 2008)

Initial seeding populations (Liu-Thompkins, 2012)

Behavior of the recipients

(Arndt, 1967)

Met

ho

d, E

xper

imen

tsan

d W

ork

in p

rogr

ess

5

Contexte Littérature Problématique Méthode Résultats DiscussionViral Marketing Strategies on FacebookInitial Seeding Populations

Op

tim

izin

g In

itia

l See

din

g Po

pula

tion

sSo

cial

Net

wo

rks

and

Mar

keti

ng

Usi

ng

Init

ial S

eed

ing

Popu

lati

ons

for

Dif

fusi

on

Synthesis: Facebook channels and marketing strategies

--- submitted to JIM ------- Experiment in progress ---

Spartacus Experiment: is a network of hubs a good seeding population?----- EURAS Proceedings, 2012 -----

--- Article to be written ----

Experience 3: Easily Influenced People to diffuse NWoM

---- INSNA, 2014 ---- ---- Dauphine, 2014 ----

---- JAR – Rejected third review ------- to be resubmitted to another

journal ----

Experience 4: Finding political bridging nodes on Facebook

-- Marketing Science Conf., 2015 ------ submitted to JEM ----

Experience 5: SWT and Personal Branding on Facebook

---- ICTO, 2016 -------- Best paper Award ------ Accepted for JEM ---

--- Recommended to MIS ---To be submitted

Experience 1: Can we recreate Facebook users social graph?

---- Article on fake Profiles as a

diffusion vector --

---- Article on ethics in research on

OSN (Chapter 2 of the thesis) --

Experiment 1: Rebuilding the hidden network of friends of Facebook users

6

Contexte Littérature Problématique Méthode Résultats Discussion

Pro

ble

mCan we rebuild the network structure of the hidden friends of a Facebook user?

Met

ho

d

4 real and 4 fake profiles using the “mutual friends” function

Res

ult

s

Between4% and 28% of the social graph of each user isrebuilt

The “Spartacus” experiment – Is a network of hubs a good seeding population?

7

Contexte Littérature Problématique Méthode Résultats Discussion

Pro

ble

mCan we createa network of hubs around a fake profile?

Will thisnetwork be a good seedingpopulation (Hinz & al.)?

Met

ho

d

Creation of a fake profile that sends requests to “somebodies” (Booth & Matic) only.

2 steps experiments (2 years and 4 years).

Res

ult

s

264 friends attracted after the critical mass of 200 friends.

A fake profile is not a good vector for information diffusion.

Experiment 3: Le determinant role of the initial seeding population in the diffusion of NWOM

8

Contexte Littérature Problématique Méthode Résultats Discussion

Pro

ble

mCan a population of « easilyinfluencedpeople » (Watts & Dodds) diffuse NWOM efficiently?

Met

ho

d

Attraction of 300 engaged consumers to a network of friends.

Diffusing negative posts to this newly created population

Res

ult

s

Virality increaseof 400%

Messages Négatifs Sur la page de l’entreprise

Sur les faux profils Différence

Fans engagés 11 37 +236%Engagement (likes, commentaires)

15 77 +413%

Reciprocation(communicationd’utilisateur àutilisateur)

0% 14.8% +14.8%

Experiment 4: Finding political bridging nodes on Facebook

9

Contexte Littérature Problématique Méthode Résultats Discussion

Pro

ble

mCan we find politicalbridging nodes on Facebook to use as an initial seedingpopulation to diffuse new ideas(Burt)?

Met

ho

d

A triangulation system between the networks of 3 politicians of different orientations

A network of more than 15,000 users with 300,000 connections between them

Res

ult

s

3,839 bridgingnodes foundbetween the twomain politicalgroups in Lebanon

10

Contexte Littérature Problématique Méthode Résultats Discussion

Synthesis: Rethinking marketing on Facebook

Pro

ble

mResearch and pratice are focused on viral marketing on Facebook without consideration for the channel used (pages, groups, Profiles) M

eth

od

s

We create pivot tables and consider several marketing techniques on different Facebook channels R

esu

lts

Marketing

method

Facebook

Profiles

Facebook

Groups

Facebook

Pages

Mass X

Niche X

Viral X

Relational X X

Viral Marketing Criteria Timelines (Personal) Groups Pages

Content1 Yes Yes Yes

Network Structure2 Yes Limited Limited

Behavior of the recipients3 Can be anticipated Can be anticipated Can be anticipated

Seeding Strategy4 Yes Limited to No Limited to Broad

Messenger5 Yes Yes Untrusted

Score 5/5 3/5 2/5

11

Contexte Littérature Problématique Méthode Résultats Discussion

A case of personal branding: Modifying the initial seeding population over time

Pro

ble

mCan we optimizethe seedingpopulation of a Facebook brand over time?

Met

ho

d

We modify the network structure and the initial seeding population with every new post by introducing weak ties to the network (Granovetter, Burt) and rejecting friend requests from strong links.

Res

ult

s

A significantincrease of engagements (likes, comments, shares) over twoyears.

Statuses are shared and republished in news papers.

Statusespublished in a book

N Maximum Sum Mean Std. Deviation

Statistic Statistic Statistic Statistic Statistic

Likes 103 5225 20.65 18.819

Comments 31 1160 4.58 5.143

Shares 32 323 1.28 3.606

Valid N (listwise) 253

Co

ntr

ibu

tio

ns

• Initial seeding populations on Facebook

• Negative WoM on Facebook

• Viral marketing

• The creation and use of fake profiles on Facebook

Theoretical

• Different methods to extract and use social graphs on Facebook

Methodological

• Viral marketing strategies on Facebook with optimization of the channel and initial seeding populations

• A personal branding strategy on Facebook

• Suggestion of new marketing strategies to use on Facebook on different channels

Managerial

12

Contexte Littérature Problématique Méthode Résultats Discussion

Limits

• Experiments on a Lebanese population: cultural differences?

• Some experiments limited to a few hundred people. The need to push the experiments further on larger populations, different situations, etc.

• The need to better understand the reactions of Facebook users in each experiment.

• The need to convert the experiments to mathematical models.

• Our experiments bring answers to some problems but open the door for many questions. The need to push forward…

13

Contexte Littérature Problématique Méthode Résultats Discussion


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