Date post: | 21-Feb-2018 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | john-israel-gatdula |
View: | 218 times |
Download: | 0 times |
of 46
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
1/46
Electric Power
Supply-Demand Outlook for 2012-2030
Sec. Carlos Jericho L. Petilla
Department of Energy
Visayas Power Summit
Waterfront Hotel
26 April 2013
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
2/46
2
LUZON
SUPPLY-DEMAND OUTLOOK2012-2030
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
3/46
Luzon Supply-Demand Outlook2012-2030
Critical Periods
Notes
a. Demand curve as plotted includes total of peak demand and required Reserve Margin (RM)
i.e. 4% regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement
b. 4.12% peak demand growth rate resulted from aggregated demand submitted by the utilities
to DOE
c. 5.28% peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.8 elasticity ratio of demand for
electric power with national economic growth applied to 6.6 percent GDP growth rate (GR)for 2012. 3
9000
11000
13000
15000
17000
19000
21000
23000
Existing Capacity Existing + Committed
Peak Demand @ 4.12 GR + RM Peak Demand @ 5.28 GR+ RM
At 4.12%Peak Demand Growth Rate
2016on existing capacity
2019on existing capacity with
committed capacities
At 5.28%Peak Demand Growth Rate
2015
on existing capacity2016on existing capacity with
committed capacities
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
4/46
Luzon Supply-Demand Outlook2012-2030
Critical Periods
Notesa. Demand curve as plotted includes total of peak demand and required Reserve Margin (RM)
i.e. 4% regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement
b. 4.12% peak demand growth rate resulted from aggregated demand submitted by the utilities
to DOE
c. 5.28% peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.8 elasticity ratio of demand for
electric power with national economic growth applied to 6.6 percent GDP growth rate (GR)
for 2012.4
Scenario: Existing Capacity less Oil-based Power Plants
At 4.12%Peak Demand Growth
Rate
2013on existing capacity
2014on existing capacity with
committed capacities
At 5.28%Peak Demand Growth Rate2013both on existing capacity
and with committed capacities
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
5/46
Luzon Supply-Demand Outlook 2012-2030with Indicative Projects for 2013-2014
Critical Periods
At 4.12%Peak Demand Growth Rate
2016on existing capacity
2019on existing capacity with
committed capacities
2023if with indicative capacities
At 5.28%Peak Demand Growth Rate
2015on existing capacity
2016on existing capacity with
committed capacities
2020if with indicative capacities
Notesa. Demand curve as plotted includes total of peak demand and required Reserve Margin (RM)
i.e. 4% regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement (RM).
b. 4.12% peak demand growth rate resulted from aggregated demand submitted by the
utilities to DOE
c. 5.28% peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.8 elasticity ratio of demand for
electric power with national economic growth applied to 6.6 percent GDP growth rate (GR)for 2012. 5
9000
11000
13000
15000
17000
19000
21000
23000
Existing Capacity Existing + Committed
With Indicative Peak Demand @ 4.12 GR + RM
Peak Demand @ 5.28 GR+ RM
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
6/46
Luzon Supply-Demand Outlook 2012-2030with Indicative Projects for 2013-2014
Critical Periods
At 4.12%Peak Demand Growth Rate
2013on existing capacity
2014on existing capacity with
committed capacities
2019if with indicative capacities
At 5.28%Peak Demand Growth Rate
2013 both for existing capacity
and with committed
capacities
2017if with indicative capacities
Notesa. Demand curve as plotted includes total of peak demand and required Reserve Margin (RM)
i.e. 4% regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement (RM).
b. 4.12% peak demand growth rate resulted from aggregated demand submitted by the
utilities to DOE
c. 5.28% peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.8 elasticity ratio of demand for
electric power with national economic growth applied to 6.6 percent GDP growth rate (GR)for 2012. 6
Scenario: Existing Capacity less Oil-based Power Plants
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
7/46
Luzon Supply-Demand Outlook Data
7
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Existing Capacity 10,744 10,744 10,744 10,744 10,744 10,744 10,744 10,744 10,744 10,744
Existing + Committed 10,749 11,587 11,612 11,763 11,763 11,763 11,763 11,763 11,763 11,763
With Indicative - 12,180 13,274 13,425 13,425 13,425 13,425 13,425 13,425 13,425
Peak Demand @ 4.12 GR + RM 9,582 9,900 10,212 10,542 10,880 11,244 11,620 12,010 12,415 12,906
GR Peak Demand - 3.84% 3.62% 3.70% 3.66% 3.79% 3.79% 3.78% 3.77% 4.42%
GR Peak Demand + RM - 3.32% 3.15% 3.23% 3.21% 3.34% 3.35% 3.36% 3.36% 3.96%
Peak Demand @ 5.28 GR+ RM 9,582 10,019 10,480 10,965 11,475 12,013 12,579 13,175 13,802 14,463GR Peak Demand - 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28%
GR Peak Demand + RM - 4.57% 4.60% 4.63% 4.66% 4.68% 4.71% 4.74% 4.76% 4.78%
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030Average
GR
Existing Capacity 10,744 10,744 10,744 10,744 10,744 10,744 10,744 10,744 10,744 -
Existing + Committed 11,763 11,763 11,763 11,763 11,763 11,763 11,763 11,763 11,763 -With Indicative 13,425 13,425 13,425 13,425 13,425 13,425 13,425 13,425 13,425 -
Peak Demand @ 4.12 GR + RM 13,419 13,955 14,514 15,099 15,709 16,346 17,011 17,705 18,430 -
GR Peak Demand 4.42% 4.42% 4.42% 4.42% 4.42% 4.42% 4.42% 4.42% 4.42% 4.12%
GR Peak Demand + RM 3.98% 3.99% 4.01% 4.02% 4.04% 4.05% 4.07% 4.08% 4.10% 3.70%
Peak Demand @ 5.28 GR+ RM 15,158 15,890 16,661 17,472 18,326 19,225 20,172 21,169 22,218 -
GR Peak Demand 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28%
GR Peak Demand + RM 4.81% 4.83% 4.85% 4.87% 4.89% 4.91% 4.92% 4.94% 4.96% 4.78%
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
8/46
Installed and Dependable Capacities
in Luzon
Fuel
Type
Installed Capacity
(MW) Difference
(MW)
Dependable Capacity
(MW) Difference
(MW)2012 2011 2012 2011
Coal 3,879 3,849 30 3,664 3,531 133
Oil Based 1,757 1,984 -227 1,633 1,586 48
Natural Gas 2,861 2,861 0 2,770 2,756 14
Geothermal 751 899 -148 587 500 87
Hydro 2,440 2,346 94 2,124 2,101 23
Wind 33 33 0 33 20 13
Biomass 17 9 8 13 5 8
TOTAL 11,739 11,981 -242 10,824 10,498 326
8
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
9/46
Committed Projects in Luzon for 2013869 MW between 2013-2015
Project Name Location ProponentFuel
Type
Capacity
(MW)M/Q/Year
GN Power (2x300
Mariveles Project)
Mariveles, Bataan GN Power Mariveles Coal
Plant Ltd., Co.
Coal 600.0 Jan. 2013
Green Future Biomass Isabela Green Future Innovations
Inc.
Biomass 13.0 Jan. 2013
CIP 2 Bunker Fired PP Bacnotan, La Union CIP II Power Corporation Oil 21.0 4Q 2013
Pililia Wind Pililia Rizal, Altenergy Wind One
Corporation
Wind 68.0 Dec. 2013
Payatas LFG Quezon City Pangea Green Energy Biomass 1.0 Dec. 2013
Total Committed
2013 703.0
9
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
10/46
Committed Projects in Luzon for 2014869 MW between 2013-2015
Project Name Location ProponentFuel
Type
Capacity
(MW)M/Q/Year
Maibarara Geothermal
Project
Sto. Tomas, Batangas Maibarara Geothermal
Inc.
Geo 20.0 Oct. 2014
Total Committed
2014 20.0
10
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
11/46
Committed Projects in Luzon for 2015869 MW between 2013-2015
Project Name Location ProponentFuel
Type
Capacity
(MW)M/Q/Year
Puting Bato Coal Calaca, Batangas South Luzon Thermal
Energy Corporation
Coal 135.0 Sept. 2015
SJCI Power Biomass San Jose, Nueva Ecija San Jose City I Power
Corporation
Biomass 11.0 Dec. 2015
Total Committed - 2015 146.0
11
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
12/46
Indicative Projects in Luzon for 20136,819.3 MW between 2013-2020
Project Name Location Proponent
Fuel
Type
Capacity
(MW) M/Q/Year
Aero Derivative
Combined Cycle Power
Plant
Calamba, Laguna Calamba Aero Power
Corporation
Oil 150.0 June 2013
Pasuquin East Wind
Energy Project - Phase I
Pasuquin, Ilocos Norte Energy Logics Philippines,
Inc.
Wind 48.0 June 2013
2x100 MW Gas Turbine
Power Project / 2x50 MW
Steam Turbine Power
Project
Brgy. Ibabang Polo,
Grande Island, Pagbilao,
Quezon
Energy World
International, Ltd.
LNG 300.0 Dec. 2013
Burgos Wind Power
Project
Nagsurot-Saoit, Burgos,
Ilocos Norte
EDC Burgos Wind Power
Corp.
Wind 86.0 Dec. 2013
Unisan Biogas Project
Phase I
Unisan, Quezon
Province
Unisan Biogen
Corporation
Biogas 5.6 Dec. 2013
Lucky PPH Biomass
Project
Isabela Lucky PPH International Biomass 3.6 Dec. 2013
Total Indicative - 2013 593.212
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
13/46
Indicative Projects in Luzon for 20146,819.3 MW between 2013-2020
Project Name Location Proponent FuelType
Capacity(MW)
M/Q/Year
SLPGC Coal-Fired Power
Plant (formerly Calaca
Expansion) - Phase I
Brgy. San Rafael, Calaca,
Batangas
South Luzon Power
Generation Corporation
(formerly SEM-Calaca
Power Corp.)
Coal 300.0 2014
Pasuquin East WindEnergy Project - Phase II
Pasuquin, Ilocos Norte Energy Logics Philippines,Inc.
Wind 72.0 Feb. 2014
Caparispisan and Balaoi
Wind Energy Project
Bgy. Caparispisan &
Balaoi, Pagudpud, Ilocos
Norte
Northern Luzon UPC Asia
Corp.
Wind 80.0 1Q 2014
Batangas Mid-Merit Plant
Project
Batangas FirstGen Corp. Natural
Gas
300.0 3Q 2014
2x300 MW Coal-Fired
Power Plant - Phase I
Sitio Naglatore, Cawag,
Subic
Redondo Peninsula
Energy, Inc.
Coal 300.0 4Q 2014
17.5 MW Nueva Ecija
Biomass Power Project
Brgy. Tambo-Tabuating,
San Leonardo, Nueva
Ecija
Green Power Nueva Ecija
Philippines, Inc.
Biomass 17.5 Dec. 2014
Total Indicative - 2014 1,069.513
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
14/46
Indicative Projects in Luzon for 20156,819.3 MW between 2013-2020
Project Name Location Proponent FuelType
Capacity(MW)
M/Q/Year
Mabitac Wind Farm
Project
Mabitac, Rizal Alternergy Sembrano
Wind Corporation
Wind 56.0 2015
2x300 MW Coal-Fired
Power Plant - Phase II
Sitio Naglatore, Cawag,
Subic
Redondo Peninsula
Energy, Inc.
Coal 300.0 2Q/2015
550 MW San Gabriel
Power Plant
San Gabriel, Batangas
City
First Gas Power
Corporation
Natural
Gas
550.0 3Q 2015
Tanawon Geothermal
Project
Bacman Geothermal
Field, Sorsogon
Energy Development
Corporation
Geo 40.0 Sept. 2015
Rangas Geothermal
Project
Bacman Geothermal
Field, Sorsogon
Energy Development
Corporation
Geo 40.0 Sept. 2015
2x300 MW Mariveles
Expansion Project
Mariveles, Bataan GN Power Mariveles Coal
Plant Ltd., Co.
Coal 600.0 4Q 2015
Puting Bato Coal-Fired
Power Plant - Phase II
Brgy. Puting Bato, West
Calaca, Batangas
South Luzon Thermal
Energy Corporation
(formerly TAOil)
Coal 135.0 4Q 2015
Unisan Biogas Project
Phase II
Unisan, Quezon Province Unisan Biogen Corporation Biogas 5.6 Dec. 2015
Total Indicative - 2015 1,726.614
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
15/46
Indicative Projects in Luzon for 20166,819.3 MW between 2013-2020
Project Name Location ProponentFuel
Type
Capacity
(MW)M/Q/Year
Cavinti Wind Farm Project Cavinti, Laguna Alternergy Cavinti Wind
Corporation
Wind 50.0 2016
2x20 MW FDC Camarines
CFB Coal Power Plant
Camarines Sur FDC Utilities, Inc. (FDCUI) Coal 40.0 1Q 2016
Quezon Power Expansion
Project
Mauban, Quezon Quezon Power Phils. Coal 500.0 2Q 2016
2x300 Masinloc Expansion
(Unit 3)
Zambales AES Masinloc Power
Partners Co., Inc.
Coal 300.0 3Q 2016
2x300 Masinloc Expansion
(Unit 4)
Zambales AES Masinloc Power
Partners Co., Inc.
Coal 300.0 3Q 2016
Total Indicative - 2016 1,190.0
15
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
16/46
Indicative Projects in Luzon for 20176,819.3 MW between 2013-2020
Project Name Location ProponentFuel
Type
Capacity
(MW)M/Q/Year
SLPGC Coal-Fired Power
Plant (formerly Calaca
Expansion) - Phase II
Brgy. San Rafael, Calaca,
Batangas
South Luzon Power
Generation Corporation
(formerly SEM-CalacaPower Corp.)
Coal 300.0 2017
Manito-Kayabon
Geothermal Project
Bacman Geothermal
Field, Sorsogon
Energy Development
Corporation
Geo 40.0 Mar. 2017
Total Indicative2017 340.0
16
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
17/46
Indicative Projects in Luzon for 20186,819.3 MW between 2013-2020
Project Name Location ProponentFuel
Type
Capacity
(MW)M/Q/Year
LNG-Fired Combined
Cycle Power Plant
Atimonan, Quezon MERALCO LNG 1,750.0 2018
Total Indicative2018 1,750.0
17
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
18/46
Indicative Projects in Luzon for 20206,819.3 MW between 2013-2020
Project Name Location ProponentFuel
Type
Capacity
(MW)M/Q/Year
Kanan Hydro Power
Project
Gen. Nakar, Quezon
Province
Kanan Hydro Electric
Power Corp.
Hydro 150.0 Dec. 2020
Total Indicative - 2020 150.0
18
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
19/46
19
VISAYAS
SUPPLY-DEMAND OUTLOOK2012-2030
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
20/46
Visayas Supply-Demand Outlook2012-2030
Critical Periods
At 4.45%Peak Demand Growth Rate
2014on existing capacity
2018on existing capacity with
committed capacities
At 5.28%Peak Demand Growth Rate2014on existing capacity
2016on existing capacity with
committed capacities
Notesa. Demand curve represents total of peak demand and required Reserve Margin (RM) i.e. 4%
regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement (RM).
b. 4.45% peak demand growth rate resulted from aggregated demand submitted by the
utilities to DOE.
c. 5.28% peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.8 elasticity ratio of demand for
electric power with national economic growth applied to 6.6 percent GDP growth rate (GR)
for 2012.
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Existing Capacity Existing +Committed Capacity
Peak Demand at 4.45 + RM Peak Demand @ 5.28 GR+ RM
20
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
21/46
Visayas Supply-Demand Outlook2012-2030
Critical Periods
Notesa. Demand curve represents total of peak demand and required Reserve Margin (RM) i.e. 4%
regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement (RM).
b. 4.45% peak demand growth rate resulted from aggregated demand submitted by the
utilities to DOE.
c. 5.28% peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.8 elasticity ratio of demand for
electric power with national economic growth applied to 6.6 percent GDP growth rate (GR)
for 2012.21
At 4.45% and 5.28% Peak Demand
Growth Rate
2013in all cases (on existing
capacity, on existing
capacity with committed
capacities, and on existing
with committed and
indicative capacities
Scenario: Existing Capacity less Oil-based Power Plants
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
22/46
Visayas Supply-Demand Outlook 2012-2030with Indicative Projects for 2013-2014
Critical PeriodsAt 4.45% Peak Demand Growth Rate
2014on existing capacity
2018on existing capacity with
committed capacities
2020if with indicative capacities
At 5.28% Peak Demand Growth Rate
2014on existing capacity
2016on existing capacity with
committed capacities
2019if with indicative capacities
Notesa. Demand curve represents total of peak demand and required Reserve Margin (RM) i.e. 4%
regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement (RM).
b. 4.45% peak demand growth rate resulted from aggregated demand submitted by the
utilities to DOE.
c. 5.28% peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.8 elasticity ratio of demand for
electric power with national economic growth applied to 6.6 percent GDP growth rate (GR)
for 2012.22
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Existing Capacity Existing +Committed Capacity
With Indicative Peak Demand at 4.45 + RM
Peak Demand @ 5.28 GR+ RM
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
23/46
Visayas Supply-Demand Outlook 2012-2030with Indicative Projects for 2013-2014
Critical Periods
At 4.45% and 5.28% Peak Demand
Growth Rate
2013in all cases (on existing
capacity, on existing capacity with
committed capacities, and on
existing with committed and
indicative capacities)
Notesa. Demand curve represents total of peak demand and required Reserve Margin (RM) i.e. 4%
regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement (RM).
b. 4.45% peak demand growth rate resulted from aggregated demand submitted by the
utilities to DOE.
c. 5.28% peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.8 elasticity ratio of demand for
electric power with national economic growth applied to 6.6 percent GDP growth rate (GR)
for 2012.23
Scenario: Existing Capacity less Oil-based Power Plants
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
24/46
Visayas Supply-Demand Outlook Data
24
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Existing Capacity 2,037 2,037 2,037 2,037 2,037 2,037 2,037 2,037 2,037 2,037
Existing + Committed 2,037 2,045 2,065 2,208 2,212 2,347 2,347 2,347 2,347 2,347
With Indicative 2,037 2,095 2,217 2,360 2,364 2,499 2,499 2,499 2,499 2,499
Peak Demand @ 4.45 GR + RM 1,831 1,909 1,992 2,070 2,160 2,255 2,342 2,433 2,526 2,624
GR Peak Demand - 4.78% 4.90% 4.36% 4.78% 4.87% 4.24% 4.23% 4.18% 4.22%
GR Peak Demand + RM - 4.26% 4.39% 3.93% 4.31% 4.41% 3.86% 3.87% 3.83% 3.88%
Peak Demand @ 5.28 GR+ RM 1,831 1,917 2,007 2,103 2,203 2,309 2,420 2,538 2,661 2,791GR Peak Demand - 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28%
GR Peak Demand + RM - 4.70% 4.73% 4.75% 4.78% 4.80% 4.82% 4.84% 4.86% 4.88%
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030Average
GR
Existing Capacity 2,037 2,037 2,037 2,037 2,037 2,037 2,037 2,037 2,037 -
Existing + Committed 2,347 2,347 2,347 2,347 2,347 2,347 2,347 2,347 2,347 -
With Indicative 2,499 2,499 2,499 2,499 2,499 2,499 2,499 2,499 2,499 -
Peak Demand @ 4.45 GR + RM 2,727 2,836 2,950 3,070 3,196 3,328 3,468 3,614 3,769 -
GR Peak Demand 4.25% 4.29% 4.33% 4.36% 4.39% 4.43% 4.46% 4.49% 4.52% 4.45%
GR Peak Demand + RM 3.93% 3.98% 4.02% 4.06% 4.11% 4.15% 4.19% 4.23% 4.27% 4.09%
Peak Demand @ 5.28 GR+ RM 2,928 3,072 3,223 3,383 3,551 3,728 3,914 4,110 4,317 -
GR Peak Demand 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28%
GR Peak Demand + RM 4.90% 4.92% 4.94% 4.95% 4.97% 4.98% 5.00% 5.01% 5.02% 4.88%
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
25/46
Installed and Dependable CapacitiesVisayas
Fuel
Type
Installed Capacity
(MW) Difference
(MW)
Dependable Capacity
(MW) Difference
(MW)2012 2011 2012 2011
Coal 806 786 20 777 501 275
Oil Based 615 615 0 476 464 12
Geothermal 923 964 -40 745 751 -6
Hydro 13 13 0 13 13 0
Biomass 44 29 15 26 15 11
TOTAL 2,402 2,407 -5 2,037 1,745 292
25
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
26/46
Committed Projects in Visayas for 2013
310 MW between 2013-2017
Project Name Location ProponentFuel
Type
Capacity
(MW)M/Q/Year
Villasiga HEP Sibalom, Antique Sunwest Water & Electric
Co., Inc.
Hydro 8.0 Dec. 2013
Total Committed2013 8.0
26
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
27/46
Committed Projects in Visayas for 2014
310 MW between 2013-2017
Project Name Location ProponentFuel
Type
Capacity
(MW)M/Q/Year
Nasulo Geothermal Nasuji, Valencia,
Negros Oriental
Energy Development
Corporation
Geo 20.0 Dec. 2014
Total Committed2014 20.0
27
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
28/46
Committed Projects in Visayas for 2015
310 MW between 2013-2017
Project Name Location ProponentFuel
Type
Capacity
(MW)M/Q/Year
PALM Concepcion Coal
Phase 1
Concepcion, Iloilo Palm Thermal
Consolidated Holdings
Corp.
Coal 135.0 3Q 2015
Cantakoy HEP Danao, Bohol Cantakoy Hydroelectric
Power Project
Hydro 8.0 4Q 2015
Total Committed2015 143.0
28
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
29/46
Committed Projects in Visayas for 2016
310 MW between 2013-2017
Project Name Location ProponentFuel
Type
Capacity
(MW)M/Q/Year
Asian Energy Biomass Cebu Asian Energy System Corp. Biomass 4.0 Dec. 2016
Total Committed2016 4.0
29
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
30/46
Committed Projects in Visayas for 2017
310 MW between 2013-2017
Project Name Location ProponentFuel
Type
Capacity
(MW)M/Q/Year
PALM Concepcion Coal
Phase 2
Concepcion, Iloilo Palm Thermal
Consolidated Holdings
Corp.
Coal 135.0 Sept. 2017
Total Committed2017 135.0
30
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
31/46
Indicative Projects in Visayas for 2013
433 MW between 2013-2019
Project Name Location ProponentFuel
Type
Capacity
(MW)M/Q/Year
Nabas Wind Power
Project
Bgy. Pawa, Nabas, Aklan Trans-Asia Oil and
Energy Development
Corporation
Wind 50.0 2013
Total Indicative2013 50.0
31
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
32/46
Indicative Projects in Visayas for 2014
433 MW between 2013-2019
Project Name Location ProponentFuel
Type
Capacity
(MW)M/Q/Year
54 MW San Lorenzo
Wind Power Project
San Lorenzo, Guimaras
Island
Trans-Asia Oil and
Energy Development
Corporation
Wind 54.0 Jan. 2014
San Carlos Bagasse-Fired
Power Generation
Project
San Carlos City, Negros
Occidental
San Carlos BioPower
Inc.
Biomass 18.0 June 2014
2x17.5 MW Green Power
Panay - Phase I
Bgy. Cabalabaguan,
Mina, Iloilo
Green Power Panay
Philippines, Inc.
Biomass 17.5 Dec. 2014
Asea One Aklan Biomass
Project
Banga, Aklan Asea One Power
Corporation
Biomass 12.0 Dec. 2014
Total Indicative - 2014 101.5
32
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
33/46
Indicative Projects in Visayas for 2015
433 MW between 2013-2019
Project Name Location ProponentFuel
Type
Capacity
(MW)M/Q/Year
PEDC Expansion Project
(1x82 MW Coal-Fired
Power Plant)
Brgy. Ingore, La Paz,
Iloilo
Panay Energy
Development
Corporation
Coal 82.0 2015
CEDC Expansion Project
(1x82 MW Coal-Fired
Power Plant)
Brgy. Daanlungsod,
Toledo City, Cebu
Cebu Energy
Development
Corporation (CEDC)
Coal 82.0 2015
1x20 MW FDC Danao CFB
Coal Power Plant
Danao City, Cebu FDC Utilities, Inc.
(FDCUI)
Coal 20.0 4Q 2015
2x17.5 MW Green Power
Panay - Phase II
Bgy. Cabalabaguan,
Mina, Iloilo
Green Power Panay
Philippines, Inc.
Biomass 17.5 Dec. 2015
Total Indicative2015 201.5
33
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
34/46
Indicative Projects in Visayas for 2017
433 MW between 2013-2019
Project Name Location ProponentFuel
Type
Capacity
(MW)M/Q/Year
Dauin Geothermal Project Dauin, Negros Oriental Energy Development
Corporation
Geo 40.0 2017
Total Indicative2017 40.0
34
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
35/46
Indicative Projects in Visayas for 2019
433 MW between 2013-2019
Project Name Location ProponentFuel
Type
Capacity
(MW)M/Q/Year
Southern Leyte
Geothermal Project
(formerly CabalianGeothermal Project)
Southern Leyte Energy Development
Corporation
Geo 40.0 2019
Total Indicative - 2019 40.0
35
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
36/46
36
LUZON-VISAYAS
SUPPLY-DEMAND OUTLOOK2012-2030
L Vi S l D d O tl k 2012 2030
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
37/46
Luzon-Visayas Supply-Demand Outlook 2012-2030
with Indicative Projects for 2013-2014
At 4.17%Peak Demand Growth Rate
2016on existing capacity
2019on existing capacity with
committed capacities
2022if with indicative capacities
At 5.28%Peak Demand Growth
Rate
2015on existing capacity
2017on existing capacity with
committed capacities
2020if with indicative capacities
Notesa. Demand curve represents total of peak demand and required Reserve Margin (RM) i.e. 4%
regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement (RM).
b. 4.17% peak demand growth rate resulted from aggregated demand of Luzon and Visayas
submitted to DOE by the utilities
c. 5.28% peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.8 elasticity ratio of demand for
electric power with national economic growth applied to 6.6 percent GDP growth rate (GR)
for 2012.
Actual transfer may be constrained
by Luzon-Visayas import-export lines
37
9000
1100013000
15000
17000
19000
21000
23000
2500027000
29000
Existing Existing + Committed Luz-Vis
With Indicative Peak Demand @ 4.17 GR + RM
Peak Demand @ 5.28 GR+ RM
Luzon-Visayas Supply-Demand Outlook 2012-2030
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
38/46
Luzon Visayas Supply Demand Outlook 2012 2030with Indicative Projects for 2013-2014
Critical Periods
At 4.17% Peak Demand Growth Rate
2013on both existing capacity
and committed apacities
2018if with indicative capacities
At 5.28%Peak Demand Growth Rate
2013on both existing capacity
and committed capacities
2017if with indicative capacities
Notesa. Demand curve represents total of peak demand and required Reserve Margin (RM) i.e. 4%
regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement (RM).
b. 4.17% peak demand growth rate resulted from aggregated demand of Luzon and Visayas
submitted to DOE by the utilities
c. 5.28% peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.8 elasticity ratio of demand for
electric power with national economic growth applied to 6.6 percent GDP growth rate (GR)
for 2012.
Actual transfer may be constrained
by Luzon-Visayas import-export lines
38
Scenario: Existing Capacity less Oil-based Power Plants
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
39/46
Luzon-Visayas Supply-Demand Outlook Data
39
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Existing Capacity 12,781 12,781 12,781 12,781 12,781 12,781 12,781 12,781 12,781 12,781
Existing + Committed 12,786 13,632 13,677 13,971 13,975 14,110 14,110 14,110 14,110 14,110
With Indicative 12,786 14,275 15,491 15,785 15,789 15,924 15,924 15,924 15,924 15,924
Peak Demand @ 4.17 GR + RM 11,412 11,808 12,204 12,612 13,040 13,499 13,963 14,443 14,941 15,530
GR Peak Demand - 3.99% 3.83% 3.81% 3.85% 3.98% 3.86% 3.85% 3.84% 4.38%
GR Peak Demand + RM - 3.47% 3.35% 3.35% 3.39% 3.52% 3.44% 3.44% 3.44% 3.95%
Peak Demand @ 5.28 GR+ RM 11,412 11,936 12,487 13,068 13,679 14,322 14,999 15,712 16,463 17,254GR Peak Demand - 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28%
GR Peak Demand + RM - 4.59% 4.62% 4.65% 4.68% 4.70% 4.73% 4.75% 4.78% 4.80%
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030Average
GR
Existing Capacity 12,781 12,781 12,781 12,781 12,781 12,781 12,781 12,781 12,781 -
Existing + Committed 14,110 14,110 14,110 14,110 14,110 14,110 14,110 14,110 14,110 -
With Indicative 15,924 15,924 15,924 15,924 15,924 15,924 15,924 15,924 15,924 -
Peak Demand @ 4.17 GR + RM 16,146 16,791 17,464 18,168 18,904 19,674 20,478 21,320 22,199 -
GR Peak Demand 4.39% 4.40% 4.40% 4.41% 4.41% 4.42% 4.43% 4.43% 4.44% 4.17%
GR Peak Demand + RM 3.97% 3.99% 4.01% 4.03% 4.05% 4.07% 4.09% 4.11% 4.12% 3.77%
Peak Demand @ 5.28 GR+ RM 18,086 18,962 19,884 20,855 21,877 22,953 24,087 25,279 26,535 -
GR Peak Demand 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28%
GR Peak Demand + RM 4.82% 4.84% 4.86% 4.88% 4.90% 4.92% 4.94% 4.95% 4.97% 4.80%
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
40/46
40
2013 Luzon and Visayas
Grid Monthly Operating Program
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
41/46
2013 Visayas Grid Monthly Operating Program
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
42/46
42
2013 Visayas Grid Monthly Operating ProgramJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Available Capacity 1783 1698 1868 1766 1811 1717 1729 1737 1726 1728 1793 1833
Coal/Thermal 691 614 747 616 697 635 656 593 614 606 593 635
Diesel 355 373 381 357 375 383 383 377 377 387 383 381Geothermal 710 682 719 719 720 623 664 741 709 709 741 741
Hydroelectric/Other RE 27 29 21 24 19 26 26 26 26 26 26 26
Import from Luzon 0 0 0 50 0 50 0 0 0 0 50 50
Demand Forecast 1462 1445 1522 1534 1591 1518 1512 1551 1526 1560 1594 1643
System Gross Reserve 321 253 346 232 220 199 217 186 200 168 199 190
Req'd. Regulating Reserve 58 58 61 61 64 61 60 62 61 62 64 66Req'd. Regulating
Contingency 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Req'd. Regulating
Dispatchable 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Reqd Dispatchable Reserve
Reqd Contingency Reserve
Reqd Regulating Reserve
Note: Actual Supply-Demand 1 Jan-23 Apr 2013MAHA U1 & U2 OF LEYTE GEO
PGPP U1 UNIT S/D
CTPP U2 S/D
KSPC U2 S/D CTPP U2 S/D
Luzon Grid Daily Operating Program
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
43/46
43
Luzon Grid Daily Operating ProgramMay 2013
Source: NGCP
Visayas Grid Daily Operating Program
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
44/46
44
Visayas Grid Daily Operating ProgramMay 2013
Source: NGCP
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
45/46
Challenges for Investments in Power Generation
45
Information asymmetry Uncertainties in the Demand Forecasts
Bureaucratic processes in securing national
and local clearances/permits/licenses
Difficulty in contracting with offtakers
Right-of-Way Problems
Climate Change
7/24/2019 Visayas Power Summit - April 26
46/46
Electric Power
Supply-Demand Outlook for 2012-2030
Sec. Carlos Jericho L. Petilla
Department of Energy
Visayas Power Summit
Waterfront Hotel
26 April 2013