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    Electric Power

    Supply-Demand Outlook for 2012-2030

    Sec. Carlos Jericho L. Petilla

    Department of Energy

    Visayas Power Summit

    Waterfront Hotel

    26 April 2013

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    2

    LUZON

    SUPPLY-DEMAND OUTLOOK2012-2030

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    Luzon Supply-Demand Outlook2012-2030

    Critical Periods

    Notes

    a. Demand curve as plotted includes total of peak demand and required Reserve Margin (RM)

    i.e. 4% regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement

    b. 4.12% peak demand growth rate resulted from aggregated demand submitted by the utilities

    to DOE

    c. 5.28% peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.8 elasticity ratio of demand for

    electric power with national economic growth applied to 6.6 percent GDP growth rate (GR)for 2012. 3

    9000

    11000

    13000

    15000

    17000

    19000

    21000

    23000

    Existing Capacity Existing + Committed

    Peak Demand @ 4.12 GR + RM Peak Demand @ 5.28 GR+ RM

    At 4.12%Peak Demand Growth Rate

    2016on existing capacity

    2019on existing capacity with

    committed capacities

    At 5.28%Peak Demand Growth Rate

    2015

    on existing capacity2016on existing capacity with

    committed capacities

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    Luzon Supply-Demand Outlook2012-2030

    Critical Periods

    Notesa. Demand curve as plotted includes total of peak demand and required Reserve Margin (RM)

    i.e. 4% regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement

    b. 4.12% peak demand growth rate resulted from aggregated demand submitted by the utilities

    to DOE

    c. 5.28% peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.8 elasticity ratio of demand for

    electric power with national economic growth applied to 6.6 percent GDP growth rate (GR)

    for 2012.4

    Scenario: Existing Capacity less Oil-based Power Plants

    At 4.12%Peak Demand Growth

    Rate

    2013on existing capacity

    2014on existing capacity with

    committed capacities

    At 5.28%Peak Demand Growth Rate2013both on existing capacity

    and with committed capacities

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    Luzon Supply-Demand Outlook 2012-2030with Indicative Projects for 2013-2014

    Critical Periods

    At 4.12%Peak Demand Growth Rate

    2016on existing capacity

    2019on existing capacity with

    committed capacities

    2023if with indicative capacities

    At 5.28%Peak Demand Growth Rate

    2015on existing capacity

    2016on existing capacity with

    committed capacities

    2020if with indicative capacities

    Notesa. Demand curve as plotted includes total of peak demand and required Reserve Margin (RM)

    i.e. 4% regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement (RM).

    b. 4.12% peak demand growth rate resulted from aggregated demand submitted by the

    utilities to DOE

    c. 5.28% peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.8 elasticity ratio of demand for

    electric power with national economic growth applied to 6.6 percent GDP growth rate (GR)for 2012. 5

    9000

    11000

    13000

    15000

    17000

    19000

    21000

    23000

    Existing Capacity Existing + Committed

    With Indicative Peak Demand @ 4.12 GR + RM

    Peak Demand @ 5.28 GR+ RM

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    Luzon Supply-Demand Outlook 2012-2030with Indicative Projects for 2013-2014

    Critical Periods

    At 4.12%Peak Demand Growth Rate

    2013on existing capacity

    2014on existing capacity with

    committed capacities

    2019if with indicative capacities

    At 5.28%Peak Demand Growth Rate

    2013 both for existing capacity

    and with committed

    capacities

    2017if with indicative capacities

    Notesa. Demand curve as plotted includes total of peak demand and required Reserve Margin (RM)

    i.e. 4% regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement (RM).

    b. 4.12% peak demand growth rate resulted from aggregated demand submitted by the

    utilities to DOE

    c. 5.28% peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.8 elasticity ratio of demand for

    electric power with national economic growth applied to 6.6 percent GDP growth rate (GR)for 2012. 6

    Scenario: Existing Capacity less Oil-based Power Plants

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    Luzon Supply-Demand Outlook Data

    7

    2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Existing Capacity 10,744 10,744 10,744 10,744 10,744 10,744 10,744 10,744 10,744 10,744

    Existing + Committed 10,749 11,587 11,612 11,763 11,763 11,763 11,763 11,763 11,763 11,763

    With Indicative - 12,180 13,274 13,425 13,425 13,425 13,425 13,425 13,425 13,425

    Peak Demand @ 4.12 GR + RM 9,582 9,900 10,212 10,542 10,880 11,244 11,620 12,010 12,415 12,906

    GR Peak Demand - 3.84% 3.62% 3.70% 3.66% 3.79% 3.79% 3.78% 3.77% 4.42%

    GR Peak Demand + RM - 3.32% 3.15% 3.23% 3.21% 3.34% 3.35% 3.36% 3.36% 3.96%

    Peak Demand @ 5.28 GR+ RM 9,582 10,019 10,480 10,965 11,475 12,013 12,579 13,175 13,802 14,463GR Peak Demand - 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28%

    GR Peak Demand + RM - 4.57% 4.60% 4.63% 4.66% 4.68% 4.71% 4.74% 4.76% 4.78%

    2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030Average

    GR

    Existing Capacity 10,744 10,744 10,744 10,744 10,744 10,744 10,744 10,744 10,744 -

    Existing + Committed 11,763 11,763 11,763 11,763 11,763 11,763 11,763 11,763 11,763 -With Indicative 13,425 13,425 13,425 13,425 13,425 13,425 13,425 13,425 13,425 -

    Peak Demand @ 4.12 GR + RM 13,419 13,955 14,514 15,099 15,709 16,346 17,011 17,705 18,430 -

    GR Peak Demand 4.42% 4.42% 4.42% 4.42% 4.42% 4.42% 4.42% 4.42% 4.42% 4.12%

    GR Peak Demand + RM 3.98% 3.99% 4.01% 4.02% 4.04% 4.05% 4.07% 4.08% 4.10% 3.70%

    Peak Demand @ 5.28 GR+ RM 15,158 15,890 16,661 17,472 18,326 19,225 20,172 21,169 22,218 -

    GR Peak Demand 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28%

    GR Peak Demand + RM 4.81% 4.83% 4.85% 4.87% 4.89% 4.91% 4.92% 4.94% 4.96% 4.78%

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    Installed and Dependable Capacities

    in Luzon

    Fuel

    Type

    Installed Capacity

    (MW) Difference

    (MW)

    Dependable Capacity

    (MW) Difference

    (MW)2012 2011 2012 2011

    Coal 3,879 3,849 30 3,664 3,531 133

    Oil Based 1,757 1,984 -227 1,633 1,586 48

    Natural Gas 2,861 2,861 0 2,770 2,756 14

    Geothermal 751 899 -148 587 500 87

    Hydro 2,440 2,346 94 2,124 2,101 23

    Wind 33 33 0 33 20 13

    Biomass 17 9 8 13 5 8

    TOTAL 11,739 11,981 -242 10,824 10,498 326

    8

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    Committed Projects in Luzon for 2013869 MW between 2013-2015

    Project Name Location ProponentFuel

    Type

    Capacity

    (MW)M/Q/Year

    GN Power (2x300

    Mariveles Project)

    Mariveles, Bataan GN Power Mariveles Coal

    Plant Ltd., Co.

    Coal 600.0 Jan. 2013

    Green Future Biomass Isabela Green Future Innovations

    Inc.

    Biomass 13.0 Jan. 2013

    CIP 2 Bunker Fired PP Bacnotan, La Union CIP II Power Corporation Oil 21.0 4Q 2013

    Pililia Wind Pililia Rizal, Altenergy Wind One

    Corporation

    Wind 68.0 Dec. 2013

    Payatas LFG Quezon City Pangea Green Energy Biomass 1.0 Dec. 2013

    Total Committed

    2013 703.0

    9

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    Committed Projects in Luzon for 2014869 MW between 2013-2015

    Project Name Location ProponentFuel

    Type

    Capacity

    (MW)M/Q/Year

    Maibarara Geothermal

    Project

    Sto. Tomas, Batangas Maibarara Geothermal

    Inc.

    Geo 20.0 Oct. 2014

    Total Committed

    2014 20.0

    10

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    Committed Projects in Luzon for 2015869 MW between 2013-2015

    Project Name Location ProponentFuel

    Type

    Capacity

    (MW)M/Q/Year

    Puting Bato Coal Calaca, Batangas South Luzon Thermal

    Energy Corporation

    Coal 135.0 Sept. 2015

    SJCI Power Biomass San Jose, Nueva Ecija San Jose City I Power

    Corporation

    Biomass 11.0 Dec. 2015

    Total Committed - 2015 146.0

    11

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    Indicative Projects in Luzon for 20136,819.3 MW between 2013-2020

    Project Name Location Proponent

    Fuel

    Type

    Capacity

    (MW) M/Q/Year

    Aero Derivative

    Combined Cycle Power

    Plant

    Calamba, Laguna Calamba Aero Power

    Corporation

    Oil 150.0 June 2013

    Pasuquin East Wind

    Energy Project - Phase I

    Pasuquin, Ilocos Norte Energy Logics Philippines,

    Inc.

    Wind 48.0 June 2013

    2x100 MW Gas Turbine

    Power Project / 2x50 MW

    Steam Turbine Power

    Project

    Brgy. Ibabang Polo,

    Grande Island, Pagbilao,

    Quezon

    Energy World

    International, Ltd.

    LNG 300.0 Dec. 2013

    Burgos Wind Power

    Project

    Nagsurot-Saoit, Burgos,

    Ilocos Norte

    EDC Burgos Wind Power

    Corp.

    Wind 86.0 Dec. 2013

    Unisan Biogas Project

    Phase I

    Unisan, Quezon

    Province

    Unisan Biogen

    Corporation

    Biogas 5.6 Dec. 2013

    Lucky PPH Biomass

    Project

    Isabela Lucky PPH International Biomass 3.6 Dec. 2013

    Total Indicative - 2013 593.212

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    Indicative Projects in Luzon for 20146,819.3 MW between 2013-2020

    Project Name Location Proponent FuelType

    Capacity(MW)

    M/Q/Year

    SLPGC Coal-Fired Power

    Plant (formerly Calaca

    Expansion) - Phase I

    Brgy. San Rafael, Calaca,

    Batangas

    South Luzon Power

    Generation Corporation

    (formerly SEM-Calaca

    Power Corp.)

    Coal 300.0 2014

    Pasuquin East WindEnergy Project - Phase II

    Pasuquin, Ilocos Norte Energy Logics Philippines,Inc.

    Wind 72.0 Feb. 2014

    Caparispisan and Balaoi

    Wind Energy Project

    Bgy. Caparispisan &

    Balaoi, Pagudpud, Ilocos

    Norte

    Northern Luzon UPC Asia

    Corp.

    Wind 80.0 1Q 2014

    Batangas Mid-Merit Plant

    Project

    Batangas FirstGen Corp. Natural

    Gas

    300.0 3Q 2014

    2x300 MW Coal-Fired

    Power Plant - Phase I

    Sitio Naglatore, Cawag,

    Subic

    Redondo Peninsula

    Energy, Inc.

    Coal 300.0 4Q 2014

    17.5 MW Nueva Ecija

    Biomass Power Project

    Brgy. Tambo-Tabuating,

    San Leonardo, Nueva

    Ecija

    Green Power Nueva Ecija

    Philippines, Inc.

    Biomass 17.5 Dec. 2014

    Total Indicative - 2014 1,069.513

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    Indicative Projects in Luzon for 20156,819.3 MW between 2013-2020

    Project Name Location Proponent FuelType

    Capacity(MW)

    M/Q/Year

    Mabitac Wind Farm

    Project

    Mabitac, Rizal Alternergy Sembrano

    Wind Corporation

    Wind 56.0 2015

    2x300 MW Coal-Fired

    Power Plant - Phase II

    Sitio Naglatore, Cawag,

    Subic

    Redondo Peninsula

    Energy, Inc.

    Coal 300.0 2Q/2015

    550 MW San Gabriel

    Power Plant

    San Gabriel, Batangas

    City

    First Gas Power

    Corporation

    Natural

    Gas

    550.0 3Q 2015

    Tanawon Geothermal

    Project

    Bacman Geothermal

    Field, Sorsogon

    Energy Development

    Corporation

    Geo 40.0 Sept. 2015

    Rangas Geothermal

    Project

    Bacman Geothermal

    Field, Sorsogon

    Energy Development

    Corporation

    Geo 40.0 Sept. 2015

    2x300 MW Mariveles

    Expansion Project

    Mariveles, Bataan GN Power Mariveles Coal

    Plant Ltd., Co.

    Coal 600.0 4Q 2015

    Puting Bato Coal-Fired

    Power Plant - Phase II

    Brgy. Puting Bato, West

    Calaca, Batangas

    South Luzon Thermal

    Energy Corporation

    (formerly TAOil)

    Coal 135.0 4Q 2015

    Unisan Biogas Project

    Phase II

    Unisan, Quezon Province Unisan Biogen Corporation Biogas 5.6 Dec. 2015

    Total Indicative - 2015 1,726.614

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    Indicative Projects in Luzon for 20166,819.3 MW between 2013-2020

    Project Name Location ProponentFuel

    Type

    Capacity

    (MW)M/Q/Year

    Cavinti Wind Farm Project Cavinti, Laguna Alternergy Cavinti Wind

    Corporation

    Wind 50.0 2016

    2x20 MW FDC Camarines

    CFB Coal Power Plant

    Camarines Sur FDC Utilities, Inc. (FDCUI) Coal 40.0 1Q 2016

    Quezon Power Expansion

    Project

    Mauban, Quezon Quezon Power Phils. Coal 500.0 2Q 2016

    2x300 Masinloc Expansion

    (Unit 3)

    Zambales AES Masinloc Power

    Partners Co., Inc.

    Coal 300.0 3Q 2016

    2x300 Masinloc Expansion

    (Unit 4)

    Zambales AES Masinloc Power

    Partners Co., Inc.

    Coal 300.0 3Q 2016

    Total Indicative - 2016 1,190.0

    15

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    Indicative Projects in Luzon for 20176,819.3 MW between 2013-2020

    Project Name Location ProponentFuel

    Type

    Capacity

    (MW)M/Q/Year

    SLPGC Coal-Fired Power

    Plant (formerly Calaca

    Expansion) - Phase II

    Brgy. San Rafael, Calaca,

    Batangas

    South Luzon Power

    Generation Corporation

    (formerly SEM-CalacaPower Corp.)

    Coal 300.0 2017

    Manito-Kayabon

    Geothermal Project

    Bacman Geothermal

    Field, Sorsogon

    Energy Development

    Corporation

    Geo 40.0 Mar. 2017

    Total Indicative2017 340.0

    16

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    Indicative Projects in Luzon for 20186,819.3 MW between 2013-2020

    Project Name Location ProponentFuel

    Type

    Capacity

    (MW)M/Q/Year

    LNG-Fired Combined

    Cycle Power Plant

    Atimonan, Quezon MERALCO LNG 1,750.0 2018

    Total Indicative2018 1,750.0

    17

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    Indicative Projects in Luzon for 20206,819.3 MW between 2013-2020

    Project Name Location ProponentFuel

    Type

    Capacity

    (MW)M/Q/Year

    Kanan Hydro Power

    Project

    Gen. Nakar, Quezon

    Province

    Kanan Hydro Electric

    Power Corp.

    Hydro 150.0 Dec. 2020

    Total Indicative - 2020 150.0

    18

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    19

    VISAYAS

    SUPPLY-DEMAND OUTLOOK2012-2030

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    Visayas Supply-Demand Outlook2012-2030

    Critical Periods

    At 4.45%Peak Demand Growth Rate

    2014on existing capacity

    2018on existing capacity with

    committed capacities

    At 5.28%Peak Demand Growth Rate2014on existing capacity

    2016on existing capacity with

    committed capacities

    Notesa. Demand curve represents total of peak demand and required Reserve Margin (RM) i.e. 4%

    regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement (RM).

    b. 4.45% peak demand growth rate resulted from aggregated demand submitted by the

    utilities to DOE.

    c. 5.28% peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.8 elasticity ratio of demand for

    electric power with national economic growth applied to 6.6 percent GDP growth rate (GR)

    for 2012.

    1500

    2000

    2500

    3000

    3500

    4000

    4500

    Existing Capacity Existing +Committed Capacity

    Peak Demand at 4.45 + RM Peak Demand @ 5.28 GR+ RM

    20

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    Visayas Supply-Demand Outlook2012-2030

    Critical Periods

    Notesa. Demand curve represents total of peak demand and required Reserve Margin (RM) i.e. 4%

    regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement (RM).

    b. 4.45% peak demand growth rate resulted from aggregated demand submitted by the

    utilities to DOE.

    c. 5.28% peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.8 elasticity ratio of demand for

    electric power with national economic growth applied to 6.6 percent GDP growth rate (GR)

    for 2012.21

    At 4.45% and 5.28% Peak Demand

    Growth Rate

    2013in all cases (on existing

    capacity, on existing

    capacity with committed

    capacities, and on existing

    with committed and

    indicative capacities

    Scenario: Existing Capacity less Oil-based Power Plants

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    Visayas Supply-Demand Outlook 2012-2030with Indicative Projects for 2013-2014

    Critical PeriodsAt 4.45% Peak Demand Growth Rate

    2014on existing capacity

    2018on existing capacity with

    committed capacities

    2020if with indicative capacities

    At 5.28% Peak Demand Growth Rate

    2014on existing capacity

    2016on existing capacity with

    committed capacities

    2019if with indicative capacities

    Notesa. Demand curve represents total of peak demand and required Reserve Margin (RM) i.e. 4%

    regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement (RM).

    b. 4.45% peak demand growth rate resulted from aggregated demand submitted by the

    utilities to DOE.

    c. 5.28% peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.8 elasticity ratio of demand for

    electric power with national economic growth applied to 6.6 percent GDP growth rate (GR)

    for 2012.22

    1500

    2000

    2500

    3000

    3500

    4000

    4500

    Existing Capacity Existing +Committed Capacity

    With Indicative Peak Demand at 4.45 + RM

    Peak Demand @ 5.28 GR+ RM

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    Visayas Supply-Demand Outlook 2012-2030with Indicative Projects for 2013-2014

    Critical Periods

    At 4.45% and 5.28% Peak Demand

    Growth Rate

    2013in all cases (on existing

    capacity, on existing capacity with

    committed capacities, and on

    existing with committed and

    indicative capacities)

    Notesa. Demand curve represents total of peak demand and required Reserve Margin (RM) i.e. 4%

    regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement (RM).

    b. 4.45% peak demand growth rate resulted from aggregated demand submitted by the

    utilities to DOE.

    c. 5.28% peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.8 elasticity ratio of demand for

    electric power with national economic growth applied to 6.6 percent GDP growth rate (GR)

    for 2012.23

    Scenario: Existing Capacity less Oil-based Power Plants

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    Visayas Supply-Demand Outlook Data

    24

    2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

    Existing Capacity 2,037 2,037 2,037 2,037 2,037 2,037 2,037 2,037 2,037 2,037

    Existing + Committed 2,037 2,045 2,065 2,208 2,212 2,347 2,347 2,347 2,347 2,347

    With Indicative 2,037 2,095 2,217 2,360 2,364 2,499 2,499 2,499 2,499 2,499

    Peak Demand @ 4.45 GR + RM 1,831 1,909 1,992 2,070 2,160 2,255 2,342 2,433 2,526 2,624

    GR Peak Demand - 4.78% 4.90% 4.36% 4.78% 4.87% 4.24% 4.23% 4.18% 4.22%

    GR Peak Demand + RM - 4.26% 4.39% 3.93% 4.31% 4.41% 3.86% 3.87% 3.83% 3.88%

    Peak Demand @ 5.28 GR+ RM 1,831 1,917 2,007 2,103 2,203 2,309 2,420 2,538 2,661 2,791GR Peak Demand - 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28%

    GR Peak Demand + RM - 4.70% 4.73% 4.75% 4.78% 4.80% 4.82% 4.84% 4.86% 4.88%

    2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030Average

    GR

    Existing Capacity 2,037 2,037 2,037 2,037 2,037 2,037 2,037 2,037 2,037 -

    Existing + Committed 2,347 2,347 2,347 2,347 2,347 2,347 2,347 2,347 2,347 -

    With Indicative 2,499 2,499 2,499 2,499 2,499 2,499 2,499 2,499 2,499 -

    Peak Demand @ 4.45 GR + RM 2,727 2,836 2,950 3,070 3,196 3,328 3,468 3,614 3,769 -

    GR Peak Demand 4.25% 4.29% 4.33% 4.36% 4.39% 4.43% 4.46% 4.49% 4.52% 4.45%

    GR Peak Demand + RM 3.93% 3.98% 4.02% 4.06% 4.11% 4.15% 4.19% 4.23% 4.27% 4.09%

    Peak Demand @ 5.28 GR+ RM 2,928 3,072 3,223 3,383 3,551 3,728 3,914 4,110 4,317 -

    GR Peak Demand 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28%

    GR Peak Demand + RM 4.90% 4.92% 4.94% 4.95% 4.97% 4.98% 5.00% 5.01% 5.02% 4.88%

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    Installed and Dependable CapacitiesVisayas

    Fuel

    Type

    Installed Capacity

    (MW) Difference

    (MW)

    Dependable Capacity

    (MW) Difference

    (MW)2012 2011 2012 2011

    Coal 806 786 20 777 501 275

    Oil Based 615 615 0 476 464 12

    Geothermal 923 964 -40 745 751 -6

    Hydro 13 13 0 13 13 0

    Biomass 44 29 15 26 15 11

    TOTAL 2,402 2,407 -5 2,037 1,745 292

    25

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    Committed Projects in Visayas for 2013

    310 MW between 2013-2017

    Project Name Location ProponentFuel

    Type

    Capacity

    (MW)M/Q/Year

    Villasiga HEP Sibalom, Antique Sunwest Water & Electric

    Co., Inc.

    Hydro 8.0 Dec. 2013

    Total Committed2013 8.0

    26

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    Committed Projects in Visayas for 2014

    310 MW between 2013-2017

    Project Name Location ProponentFuel

    Type

    Capacity

    (MW)M/Q/Year

    Nasulo Geothermal Nasuji, Valencia,

    Negros Oriental

    Energy Development

    Corporation

    Geo 20.0 Dec. 2014

    Total Committed2014 20.0

    27

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    Committed Projects in Visayas for 2015

    310 MW between 2013-2017

    Project Name Location ProponentFuel

    Type

    Capacity

    (MW)M/Q/Year

    PALM Concepcion Coal

    Phase 1

    Concepcion, Iloilo Palm Thermal

    Consolidated Holdings

    Corp.

    Coal 135.0 3Q 2015

    Cantakoy HEP Danao, Bohol Cantakoy Hydroelectric

    Power Project

    Hydro 8.0 4Q 2015

    Total Committed2015 143.0

    28

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    Committed Projects in Visayas for 2016

    310 MW between 2013-2017

    Project Name Location ProponentFuel

    Type

    Capacity

    (MW)M/Q/Year

    Asian Energy Biomass Cebu Asian Energy System Corp. Biomass 4.0 Dec. 2016

    Total Committed2016 4.0

    29

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    Committed Projects in Visayas for 2017

    310 MW between 2013-2017

    Project Name Location ProponentFuel

    Type

    Capacity

    (MW)M/Q/Year

    PALM Concepcion Coal

    Phase 2

    Concepcion, Iloilo Palm Thermal

    Consolidated Holdings

    Corp.

    Coal 135.0 Sept. 2017

    Total Committed2017 135.0

    30

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    Indicative Projects in Visayas for 2013

    433 MW between 2013-2019

    Project Name Location ProponentFuel

    Type

    Capacity

    (MW)M/Q/Year

    Nabas Wind Power

    Project

    Bgy. Pawa, Nabas, Aklan Trans-Asia Oil and

    Energy Development

    Corporation

    Wind 50.0 2013

    Total Indicative2013 50.0

    31

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    Indicative Projects in Visayas for 2014

    433 MW between 2013-2019

    Project Name Location ProponentFuel

    Type

    Capacity

    (MW)M/Q/Year

    54 MW San Lorenzo

    Wind Power Project

    San Lorenzo, Guimaras

    Island

    Trans-Asia Oil and

    Energy Development

    Corporation

    Wind 54.0 Jan. 2014

    San Carlos Bagasse-Fired

    Power Generation

    Project

    San Carlos City, Negros

    Occidental

    San Carlos BioPower

    Inc.

    Biomass 18.0 June 2014

    2x17.5 MW Green Power

    Panay - Phase I

    Bgy. Cabalabaguan,

    Mina, Iloilo

    Green Power Panay

    Philippines, Inc.

    Biomass 17.5 Dec. 2014

    Asea One Aklan Biomass

    Project

    Banga, Aklan Asea One Power

    Corporation

    Biomass 12.0 Dec. 2014

    Total Indicative - 2014 101.5

    32

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    Indicative Projects in Visayas for 2015

    433 MW between 2013-2019

    Project Name Location ProponentFuel

    Type

    Capacity

    (MW)M/Q/Year

    PEDC Expansion Project

    (1x82 MW Coal-Fired

    Power Plant)

    Brgy. Ingore, La Paz,

    Iloilo

    Panay Energy

    Development

    Corporation

    Coal 82.0 2015

    CEDC Expansion Project

    (1x82 MW Coal-Fired

    Power Plant)

    Brgy. Daanlungsod,

    Toledo City, Cebu

    Cebu Energy

    Development

    Corporation (CEDC)

    Coal 82.0 2015

    1x20 MW FDC Danao CFB

    Coal Power Plant

    Danao City, Cebu FDC Utilities, Inc.

    (FDCUI)

    Coal 20.0 4Q 2015

    2x17.5 MW Green Power

    Panay - Phase II

    Bgy. Cabalabaguan,

    Mina, Iloilo

    Green Power Panay

    Philippines, Inc.

    Biomass 17.5 Dec. 2015

    Total Indicative2015 201.5

    33

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    Indicative Projects in Visayas for 2017

    433 MW between 2013-2019

    Project Name Location ProponentFuel

    Type

    Capacity

    (MW)M/Q/Year

    Dauin Geothermal Project Dauin, Negros Oriental Energy Development

    Corporation

    Geo 40.0 2017

    Total Indicative2017 40.0

    34

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    Indicative Projects in Visayas for 2019

    433 MW between 2013-2019

    Project Name Location ProponentFuel

    Type

    Capacity

    (MW)M/Q/Year

    Southern Leyte

    Geothermal Project

    (formerly CabalianGeothermal Project)

    Southern Leyte Energy Development

    Corporation

    Geo 40.0 2019

    Total Indicative - 2019 40.0

    35

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    36

    LUZON-VISAYAS

    SUPPLY-DEMAND OUTLOOK2012-2030

    L Vi S l D d O tl k 2012 2030

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    Luzon-Visayas Supply-Demand Outlook 2012-2030

    with Indicative Projects for 2013-2014

    At 4.17%Peak Demand Growth Rate

    2016on existing capacity

    2019on existing capacity with

    committed capacities

    2022if with indicative capacities

    At 5.28%Peak Demand Growth

    Rate

    2015on existing capacity

    2017on existing capacity with

    committed capacities

    2020if with indicative capacities

    Notesa. Demand curve represents total of peak demand and required Reserve Margin (RM) i.e. 4%

    regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement (RM).

    b. 4.17% peak demand growth rate resulted from aggregated demand of Luzon and Visayas

    submitted to DOE by the utilities

    c. 5.28% peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.8 elasticity ratio of demand for

    electric power with national economic growth applied to 6.6 percent GDP growth rate (GR)

    for 2012.

    Actual transfer may be constrained

    by Luzon-Visayas import-export lines

    37

    9000

    1100013000

    15000

    17000

    19000

    21000

    23000

    2500027000

    29000

    Existing Existing + Committed Luz-Vis

    With Indicative Peak Demand @ 4.17 GR + RM

    Peak Demand @ 5.28 GR+ RM

    Luzon-Visayas Supply-Demand Outlook 2012-2030

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    Luzon Visayas Supply Demand Outlook 2012 2030with Indicative Projects for 2013-2014

    Critical Periods

    At 4.17% Peak Demand Growth Rate

    2013on both existing capacity

    and committed apacities

    2018if with indicative capacities

    At 5.28%Peak Demand Growth Rate

    2013on both existing capacity

    and committed capacities

    2017if with indicative capacities

    Notesa. Demand curve represents total of peak demand and required Reserve Margin (RM) i.e. 4%

    regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement (RM).

    b. 4.17% peak demand growth rate resulted from aggregated demand of Luzon and Visayas

    submitted to DOE by the utilities

    c. 5.28% peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.8 elasticity ratio of demand for

    electric power with national economic growth applied to 6.6 percent GDP growth rate (GR)

    for 2012.

    Actual transfer may be constrained

    by Luzon-Visayas import-export lines

    38

    Scenario: Existing Capacity less Oil-based Power Plants

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    Luzon-Visayas Supply-Demand Outlook Data

    39

    2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

    Existing Capacity 12,781 12,781 12,781 12,781 12,781 12,781 12,781 12,781 12,781 12,781

    Existing + Committed 12,786 13,632 13,677 13,971 13,975 14,110 14,110 14,110 14,110 14,110

    With Indicative 12,786 14,275 15,491 15,785 15,789 15,924 15,924 15,924 15,924 15,924

    Peak Demand @ 4.17 GR + RM 11,412 11,808 12,204 12,612 13,040 13,499 13,963 14,443 14,941 15,530

    GR Peak Demand - 3.99% 3.83% 3.81% 3.85% 3.98% 3.86% 3.85% 3.84% 4.38%

    GR Peak Demand + RM - 3.47% 3.35% 3.35% 3.39% 3.52% 3.44% 3.44% 3.44% 3.95%

    Peak Demand @ 5.28 GR+ RM 11,412 11,936 12,487 13,068 13,679 14,322 14,999 15,712 16,463 17,254GR Peak Demand - 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28%

    GR Peak Demand + RM - 4.59% 4.62% 4.65% 4.68% 4.70% 4.73% 4.75% 4.78% 4.80%

    2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030Average

    GR

    Existing Capacity 12,781 12,781 12,781 12,781 12,781 12,781 12,781 12,781 12,781 -

    Existing + Committed 14,110 14,110 14,110 14,110 14,110 14,110 14,110 14,110 14,110 -

    With Indicative 15,924 15,924 15,924 15,924 15,924 15,924 15,924 15,924 15,924 -

    Peak Demand @ 4.17 GR + RM 16,146 16,791 17,464 18,168 18,904 19,674 20,478 21,320 22,199 -

    GR Peak Demand 4.39% 4.40% 4.40% 4.41% 4.41% 4.42% 4.43% 4.43% 4.44% 4.17%

    GR Peak Demand + RM 3.97% 3.99% 4.01% 4.03% 4.05% 4.07% 4.09% 4.11% 4.12% 3.77%

    Peak Demand @ 5.28 GR+ RM 18,086 18,962 19,884 20,855 21,877 22,953 24,087 25,279 26,535 -

    GR Peak Demand 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28% 5.28%

    GR Peak Demand + RM 4.82% 4.84% 4.86% 4.88% 4.90% 4.92% 4.94% 4.95% 4.97% 4.80%

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    40

    2013 Luzon and Visayas

    Grid Monthly Operating Program

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    2013 Visayas Grid Monthly Operating Program

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    42

    2013 Visayas Grid Monthly Operating ProgramJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

    Available Capacity 1783 1698 1868 1766 1811 1717 1729 1737 1726 1728 1793 1833

    Coal/Thermal 691 614 747 616 697 635 656 593 614 606 593 635

    Diesel 355 373 381 357 375 383 383 377 377 387 383 381Geothermal 710 682 719 719 720 623 664 741 709 709 741 741

    Hydroelectric/Other RE 27 29 21 24 19 26 26 26 26 26 26 26

    Import from Luzon 0 0 0 50 0 50 0 0 0 0 50 50

    Demand Forecast 1462 1445 1522 1534 1591 1518 1512 1551 1526 1560 1594 1643

    System Gross Reserve 321 253 346 232 220 199 217 186 200 168 199 190

    Req'd. Regulating Reserve 58 58 61 61 64 61 60 62 61 62 64 66Req'd. Regulating

    Contingency 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Req'd. Regulating

    Dispatchable 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

    Reqd Dispatchable Reserve

    Reqd Contingency Reserve

    Reqd Regulating Reserve

    Note: Actual Supply-Demand 1 Jan-23 Apr 2013MAHA U1 & U2 OF LEYTE GEO

    PGPP U1 UNIT S/D

    CTPP U2 S/D

    KSPC U2 S/D CTPP U2 S/D

    Luzon Grid Daily Operating Program

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    43

    Luzon Grid Daily Operating ProgramMay 2013

    Source: NGCP

    Visayas Grid Daily Operating Program

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    44

    Visayas Grid Daily Operating ProgramMay 2013

    Source: NGCP

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    Challenges for Investments in Power Generation

    45

    Information asymmetry Uncertainties in the Demand Forecasts

    Bureaucratic processes in securing national

    and local clearances/permits/licenses

    Difficulty in contracting with offtakers

    Right-of-Way Problems

    Climate Change

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    Electric Power

    Supply-Demand Outlook for 2012-2030

    Sec. Carlos Jericho L. Petilla

    Department of Energy

    Visayas Power Summit

    Waterfront Hotel

    26 April 2013


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