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Kim, Seang-Tae President
National Information Society Agency
Vision and Plans for Coming smart Society
-2-
• Innovation & e-Government, • National Competitiveness & IT Policy • Foresight, Digital Convergence policy
Seang-Tae KIM [email protected]
Specialty
• President, Inaugurated on May 19, 2008 and appointed 11th President of NIA • Dean, Graduate School of Governance, Sungkyunkwan University • President, Global e-Policy & e-Government Institute • Member of Joint Evaluation Committee for Local Government, Ministry of Government Administration and Home Affairs • Advisor to Presidential transition committee • Member of Evaluation Committee, Civil Service Commission • Chairmen of Committee of World e-Government Award and challenge • Policy Advisor to Committee on Science, Technology, Information and Telecommunication, National Assembly • President, National Future Policy Institute, National Future Policy Forum • President of International Research Cooperation Facilitation Committee, Korea Research Foundation • president of Future Politics and Governance Committee, World Future Society Forum • Advisory board member of I-ways, Journal of E-Government\ Policy and Regulation • Member of Committee of U-city under Prime Minister’s Office • Member of National Informatization Strategy Committee • President of Association of National ICT agencies • Co-chair of Future Network 2020 Forum • Commissioner of ITU-UNESCO Global Broadband Commission
Megatrend of Future Society and Paradigm Shift I
Smart Revolution and IT Potential II
Preparing for Future III
3
CONTENTS
Megatrend of Future Society and Paradigm Shift I
4
Social Paradigm Shift
Technology development
Co-evolution of technology and society
Change in society
• Patriarchy • Communities • Traditional so
ciety
• Capitalism • Fordism (mass p
roduction) • Vertical bureauc
racy
• Post-Fordism (small quantity batch production)
• Network organization
Information Technology
Agricultural Technology
Agricultural Society
Industrial Society
Information Society
Smart Society
? Agricultural Revolution Industrial
Revolution Information Revolution
Smart Revolution
Smart Technology
Primitive Society
5
Industrial Technology
Analysis of Global Megatrend
15 Megatrends of Future society
Based on 51 different foresight research sources produced by worldwide governments, agencies and experts (forecast of 2020 on average)
25 resources analyzed by Korean government and public/private research institutions (Presidential Council for Future and Vision, KISTEP, KISDI, SERI, LGERI, etc.)
Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Committee on Japan’s Innovation Strategy, Nomura Research Institute, etc.)
EU governments including UK, Germany and Finland, multinational companies including Shell, Siemens, etc.
US National Intelligence Council (NIC), RAND Corporation, MIT, Gartner, etc.
International organizations such as UN, World Future Society, and International Energy Agency (IEA)
Australian 2020 Summit
6
4 Keywords of Future
• Change in population structure • Polarization • Network society
• Virtual intelligence space • Convergence of technologies • Robots
• Economy serving citizens’ well-being/ emotion/welfare • Knowledge-based economy • Emergence of global talents
• Climate change and environmental pollution • Energy crisis • Increased side-effects of technology development
• Globalization • Increased threats to safety • South-North unification
S
T
E
E
P
Human-orientated
Ageing Population
Risk Society
Technology Development
Keywords 15 Megatrends of Future Society
Society
Technology
Economy
Environment
Politics
7
8
Keyword 1: Human-oriented Society
“Dream Society”
Rolph Jensen (Dream Company CIO)
Daniel Pink (Futurist)
“Pro-sumer economy”
“High concept, High touch” Society where imagination and
emotions are important
Individual pro-sumers who are producers and consumers change the economic system innovatively and create ex
plosive wealth
Moving to the ‘Conceptual Age’ where creativity, emotions and intu
ition are important ※ High concept capability to create beauty and high touch capability to empathize with o
thers are required
Alvin Toffler (Futurist)
※ Elements of future talents: creativity, teamwork, motivation, stimulation,
high spirits
Lee O-Young Professor
“Age of vita capitalism” Coming of the ‘Age of vita capitalism’ where digilog system combining digital and analog systems is the key
concept
Human-oriented society with emphasis on cre
ativity
9
Keyword 1: Human-oriented Society
• Decreased tax revenue and increased spending on social security
Increased budget deficits
Keyword 2: Ageing society
Ageing
*’Ageing society’ if share of the elderly in total population is 7% or larger; ‘Aged society’ if 14% or larger; and ‘Post-aged society’ if 20% or larger
Younger Generation • Increased burden (supporting senior
citizens, national pension, etc.) • Increased burden on social security
Increased generational conflicts Finance Industry
Change in generational structure
Change in household consumption pattern
Reorganized industrial structure Macroeconomics
Savings rate↓ Labor force↓
Investment↓ Household income↓
Decreased economic growth rate
Ageing Korea: Population of 65 and older will reach 38.2% by 2050
※ Population of 65 and older was only 3.8% in 1980; but it is expected to reach 38.2% by 2050 with 1.4 economically active person aged 15~64 having to support 1 senior citizen (2010 Social Indicators of Korea, Statistics Korea)
* Source: LGERI
※ Japan’s ‘Lost Decade’ in the 1990s was mainly caused by negative economic outlook from ageing and active consumption by citizens
Keyword 2: Ageing Society
Source: Statistics Korea (2009)
Number of economically active population (15~64) is forecasted to decrease from 2016. Age group of those in 30~40s, making up the major part of labor force, already started to decrease in number since 2006.
Source: Statistics Korea (2010)
An international credit assessment agency, S&P forecasts that the increased spending on the ageing society will increase the share of net government debt in GDP from 18.0% in 2010 to 48.0% in 2040, and even further to 137.2% in 2050. (S&P, ‘Global Ageing 2011’)
Source: Munhwa Daily (2011) 11
Warning! (Rapid budget increase
on ageing)
S&P says Korea might face the same fiscal trouble by 2050 as Greece is now in.
[Population share by age group]
65 or older
15~64
0~14
80 or older Korea’s net government debt forecast (in % in GDP)
2016 (36.19 mil)
Economically active (age 15~64)
2006 (16.75 mil)
Age 30~40s
Source: S&P
(x 10,000 persons)
Keyword 3: High-risk Society Uncertainties that Korea might face
Along with efforts to overcome the current risks, a strategy to forecast the
next 10 years or 100 years from now and change the risks to opportunities is
important
(Adapted from Urlich Beck)
Modern society is a risk society where uncertainties and risks caused by modernization influence the global environment as a whole
(Adapted from Nassim Nicholas Taleb )
Prepare for the black swan, the enormous impact of the highly improbable
§ Low birth rate and entrance into post-aged society
§ Climate change and large-scale disasters
§ Increased social conflicts and cost due to polarization, multi-culturalism, etc.
§ Foreign exchange market crisis and trade war
§ Increased price of raw materials and energy
§ Lack of jobs and unbalanced manpower supply and demand
§ Expansion of new diseases and epidemics
§ Unification and geographical uncertainties (Adapted from ‘UN State of the Future’ – 2018 Korea)
12
Source: SERI, KIET, KIEP, News Articles, A. T. Kearney Analysis
Korea is geographically located in a high-risk area where there is always possible economic risk increase due to the US-China relationship and North Korea’s nuclear threat
Increased volatility in financial markets
Stronger efforts by North Korea
to build military tension using nucle
ar weapons
Geographically higher risk in
Korea due to intensified hegemonic competition between
US and China Agitated foreign investors
Lower international credit
rating
Rising exchange rate
Falling stock price
s
Worse conditions for foreign loans and rapid cost incr
eases
Shrinking consumption from inflation
Real economy stagnation
More difficulties for the domestic industry to achieve long-term export contracts despite rising exchange rates because of foreign importers feeling more insecure
about the Korean market
Reduced market capitalization and more difficulties in raising capital
finance
Reduced FDI and lack of investment
Impediment to economic
growth
13
Keyword 3: High-risk Society
(* Source: National Institute of Meteorological Research 2010)
< Climate change in Korea with forecast>
(* Source: Bank of Korea, Hyundai Research Institute, MK Business News 2009.09)
(* Source: Hyundai Research Institute, MK Business News 2011.03)
(* 출처 : 매일경제, 2009.06) (* Source: National Police Agenc
y 2010)
< No. of brutal crimes >
Keyword 3: High-risk Society < No. of persons
with officially designated infectious diseases>
(* Source: Ministry of Health and Welfare, MK Business News,
2009.06)
< Growth rate of foreigners residing in OECD countries>
Average increase rate for 2000~2008
< Real and potential growth rate of Korea, %>
Potential
Real
Arrows represent average potential growth rate by each stage
< Nominal and real price of oil (in USD/barrel)>
Nominal price Real price
2nd Oil-shock
3rd Oil-shock
4th Oil-shock?
Germ
any N
etherlands Sw
eden Sw
itzerland Austria D
enmark
Luxembourg
Japan Finland N
orway
Hungary
UK
Slovakia Portugal Czech G
reece Italy Spain Korea
(* Source: OECD, UN, MK Business News 2010.12)
Keyword 4 : High-technology
Calculating Database Online Ubiquitous
ICT development
Intelligence
15
4 Keywords and Future Society
Ageing Population
Technology development
High-risk society
Human orientated
• Manpower decrease • Tax revenue decrease • Budget deficit increase
• Increased economic, social, environmental and political risks
• Rapid increase in cost for risk management and recovery
• Increased impact of uncertainties
• Emphasis on humanism, vita capital
• Future talents: must be creative
• Sustained smart revolution • Network improvement (mobile, social and cloud networks) • Reduced restrictions of time and place (virtual space, augmented reality) • Improvement and development toward human-like technologies
Risk Society : Cost and budget increases
People Power Society : Creating new values by adding knowledge and capacity of individuals
Paradigm Shift in Government Operation in Future society
Traditional Government-led State Management
Open government operation based o
n people power
• Increases citizen rights and roles based on human-oriented creativity • Achieves a low-cost and high-quality country led by creative citizens
After the worldwide financial crisis, each country is now facing a ‘budget deficit’ caused by massive government spending in the past
Korea is also bound to experience a greater deficit from the need for providing quality services for citizens in the ageing and risk society
Society of People Power
The next age of government : David cameron
Future Government: Power of People
Shift to a new government operation paradigm by providing rights to people and achieving an open government that understands demand and behavior of people
Patriarchy Communities
Traditional society
Capitalism
Fordism (mass production) Vertical bureaucracy
Post-Fordism (small quantity batch pro
duction) Network organizatio
n
Agricultural Society Industrial Society Information
Society Smart Society
(Post-Information Society)
?
20
Feudal Society Industrial Society Smart Society
Smart Revolution and IT Potential II
21
Arpanet test by US Dept. of Defense UCLA-Stanford Data Exchange (1969.10) First e-mail (Tomlinson) (1972)
WWW (1990)
First Webserver (1990) (Tim Berners-Lee)
Mosaic (1993)
(1982)
(2004) (2005) (2007)
(2010) (2009)
Netscape (1994)
(Forrester Research Internet Population Forecast(2009.7)) Worldwide Internet users 22 billion by 2013
Rapid ICT Development
22
n Rapid expansion of mobile life regardless of social class, generation and job n “A day starts and ends with smart phone” n Has become a social trend (new term ‘mobile-blind’)
General Users Politicians Businessmen
Lives, works, communicates and entertains with smart phone
Publicizes policies and communicates with voters
Adopts mobile office system
• Remote working • Interconnection to intra-system
• All-time response to customers
• Faster decision making
President Obama is a smart phone lover
[Case of IBM] View videos
Read books
Socialize
Listen to music
Play games Monitor exe
rcise
Check traffic
Find roads
Search restaurants
Shop
l Used smart phone to publicize his policies and collect opinions during the 2008 election
l Has been using a specially manufactured smart phone since inauguration
l 25,000 IBM workers are using smart phones for work
l The number is expected to reach more than 100,000 by 2012
Mobile revolution through smart devices: “Internet on a chair”à “Internet on the move”
Rapid diffusion of smart phones, tablet PCs and Smart TVs
Smart Revolution: Smart Device
Source : Brian Solism
Source: Social web and future trend (Jeong Ji-hoon, Head of IT Convergence Lab, Myongji Hospital
Active two-way communication using di
verse media
Traditional media evolves to social media after going through ICT and smart device development
Used as main channel for providing public services, delivering emergency alerts and in elections
UK encouraged citizens to vote through SNS in Prime Minister Election
San Francisco Customer Service Center ‘SF311’ through which citizens can file SNS applications in cases of emergency, fire or road damage
California Online Innovation Forum
Twitter of British Monarchy
24
Smart Revolution: Media Evolution
Traditional media
Internet media
Beginning of revolution
Social web
IT Evolution Rapid change of technology features to become online, intelligent an
d converged
Change in Buying Patterns
Extension of buying trend segmented into individualization, customiz
ation, etc.
Platform Expansion Expansion from single platform, one-way communication to integrated platform
, two-way communication
Business Innovation Business value focus shifted from technology and quantity expansion to emotion and quality improveme
nt
• Facilitation of Internet and mobile services
• Introduction of convergence businesses
Diverse business channels
New business concepts
Improved business profit models
Value-oriented businesses
• Facilitation of smart shopping, one-person business, cloud sourcing, etc.
• Boom in Internet and mobile ads
• Coming of the cross-media age
• Active customer-oriented marketing
• Expansion of businesses contributing to society
25
Smart Revolution: Business Innovation
Enjoys any customized service he/she wants regardless of time and place
Individual
26
Smart Revolution: Customized Services
Content & Service Integrated Plat
form
Sports facilities information
Leisure information
One-stop civil service
Job information
Cultural life information
Traffic information
Tour information 27
Policy participation
Smart Revolution: New Life Style
Smart Revolution: Future Roles of IT
IT Potential
Overcome time and space limits
Intelligence
Two-way
Network
Agility, Convergence
Create/Expand Growth Engines
Foster creative talents
Achieve smart welfare society Create new values
Manage open government
28
ICT is the main source of energy that leads the megatrend such as the economic society, creates values, and changes the social system right from the foundation
It is also the key means to actively responding to future uncertainties and risks
Introduction Growth Maturity Another leap
Dawn of Smart Revolution
Informatization 1.0 Informatization 2.0
Industrial Society Paradigm
NOW
Informatization 3.0
Information Society Paradigm
Smart Society Paradigm
New Paradigm Needed
29
Smart Revolution: Another ICT Leap
Service Infrastructure Social Infrastructure
Network Service/System Prediction Governance Law
Smart Life
Smart Biz Smart Gov
Framework of Smart Society
Preparing for Future III
31
Future Values
Opinion leaders in Korea selected “happiness’, ‘sustainability’, ‘justice and fairness’ and ‘creativity and imagination’ as new values of the future
Happiness
Sustainability
Justice & Fairness
Creativity & Imagination
Future values
An in-depth interview on ‘Future Korea’ and ‘The Roles of ICT in the Future’ was carried out with 10 opinion leaders (
NIA, 2010. 9~11)
32
Ageing Population
Technology development
Risk society
Human- oriented
Sustainable Development
Growing Together Citizen Happiness
Creative Powerhouse
Future Values and New Strategies
IT
• Smart government • Smart work • u-health, u-welfare
• Smart talent • Smart citizen • Smart learning
• Knowledge platform • Smart Biz • Green IT
• Sharing, contribution • Supporting SMEs (standard framework) • One-person business
Strategy 1
Strategy 3 Strategy 4
IT-based strategies are needed to achieve such future values – ‘happiness’, ‘sustainability’, ‘justice & fairness’, and ‘creativity & imagination’
Strategy 2
33
Smart Government
Smart Work
u-health, u-welfare
Smart sharing
Standard Framework
1-person Business
Knowledge Platform
Smart Biz
Green IT Smart Talent
Smart Citizen
Smart Learning
Ageing Population
Risk Society
Human oriented
Technology Development
New Strategic Framework for Future Development
New
Values
Open
Innovation
IT-based open platform
IT-based open platform
1. National Strategy of Platform for Creative Innovation
Integration Connection
Openness Sharing
Participation Collaboration
Creation Innovation
Open platform applied to the entire society
Facilitation of ‘open innovation’ and ‘collaborative creation’
2. Platform Government for Advanced Administration
Open Innovation
Open Platform
Government/Public Sector Innovation
Agricultural Society
Industrial Society
Information Society
Smart Society
Mobilize and distribute resources
Plan and create market
Mediate and provide services
“Create values”
< Change in Government Roles >
Need for expansion of an open platform strategy in the entire administration
Platform – main source of competitiveness in the sm
art age
Open innovation Collaborative crea
tion
• Create new services by actively using open government information • Innovate as global platform service industries by providing creative platform
• Create group intelligence synergies by providing and sharing new ideas based on active participation • Communicate with government and build a framework by actively using government platform service
Government • Transform into a platform government by expanding use of public information and government services • Establish a highly valued platform through government engagement
Industries Citizens
What is a platform strategy?
Value-oriented ecosystem strategy that integrates diverse ideas and knowledge and produces new services by providing people the opportunities to challenge and create
Platform itself influences as group power is accumulated through the platform
3. Open Knowledge Ecosystem for New Values
Based on open contribution and sharing platform, participating organizations can practice beneficiary-oriented social contribution and sharing service by sharing information with others and facilitating collaboration
IT experts
38
4. Open Contribution: Sharing Platform
Sponsor Smart Angels Move
ment Council Relevant Organi
zations
IT businesses
IT organizations/institutions
Students
Inquiry/application of volunteer service
information
Facilitated management
backup
Provision of Statistical
information
Integration of volunteer service
information
Provision of volunteer service
management system
Provision of statistical
information
Volunteer organizations
Press/Media
Educational organizations
Central/local government
Volunteer participant information
Service user information
Volunteer service program
information
Sharing platform
Service Mentoring Ability-sharing
Rights-sharing
Teaching
Contribution and sharing platform
Key Projects
39
5. Fostering Creative Future Talents: S.M.A.R.T
A smart talent
prepares for Tomorrow
pursues Relationships
knows how to Share
is a Multiplayer
takes Actions
40
Facilitated Internet and mobile services, introduction of convergence businesses
Diversify business channels
Smart shopping, one-person business, and
facilitated cloud sourcing
Introduce new business concepts
Rapid development of Internet mobile ads, coming
of the age of cross-media
Improve business profit models
Customer-oriented marketing, expansion of businesses contributing to society
Expand value-oriented businesses
Smart Device Market Drive
n Real Time Target Marke
t Attention Get
ter
Contribute to economic growth by actively utilizing smart IT business strategy • Actively respond to changing business trends • Provide diverse products and services to customers
Business Role Government Role Establish foundation for businesses by supporting facilitation and preparing for adverse effects • Support with business facilitating policies and prepare legal
means for improvement • Actively apply smart IT business strategies to government se
rvices
Improve national competitiveness through smart businesses
6. Creating Smart Businesses
Platform based Open Innovation
Closing
Government 3.0 Smart Government
Open innovation and collaborative creation
Open knowledge ecosystem based on smart infrastructure
Smart government based on individualization, intellige
nce and platforms
Creative and Human-oriented Smart Society - Improving from an IT powerhouse to a smart country guiding the world
41
Informatization 3.0 IT-based creative
powerhouse
Open Innovation New Values
People Power
Low-cost, high-quality country
Creative citizens leading
42 26/30
Thank you!