Global equity markets ended August in positive territory on the back of the downgrading of risk to the global economy. Chinese policy makers have moved to push back against a potential disorderly depreciation of the yuan, Mexico and the US have made progress on trade negotiations, and speculation mounted that the Trump administration would continue to de-escalate global trade skirmishes.
In the US, the main equity market continued its record-setting run in August to reach twin landmarks: an all-time high and the longest Bull Run in history. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) signaled a gradual pace of interest-rate rises amid signs of economic expansion, which, along with the revived US-Mexico trade deal, and double-digit corporate profit growth, boosted equity market returns.
UK equity markets fell during August, caused mainly by continued trade tensions and speculation of their impact on sectors such as mining. Sterling ended the month weaker against the US dollar, despite a notable rally into month end, which was driven by dollar weakness and improved Brexit headlines. Comments from the Bank of England on the “uncomfortably high” prospect of a ‘no deal’ saw sterling fall to a 13-month low against the US dollar, before strengthening on supportive comments from the EU’s Chief Negotiator.
European equity markets also retrenched in August due to concerns over the Italian budget combined with contagion fears over Turkish Lira weakness. Financials and telecoms bore the brunt of the sell-off, while technology proved the only sector to hold on to positive territory over the month. In country terms, Switzerland posted modest gains and France was only marginally negative, while Italy bore witness to the most pronounced weakness.
Weakness in emerging equity markets during August was broad based with all the regions registering losses. While the prospect of a deepening trade spat pushed Chinese equity markets into negative territory, Latin America, not Asia, was the worst performing region, with losses in Brazil accentuated by political uncertainties and currency weakness. The latter’s performance was boosted by equity gains in Korea, India, Indonesia and the Philippines. The EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) region was dragged down by Turkey, where heavy losses in its equity markets reflected the depreciation of the lira. Equity performance in emerging Europe was more upbeat with small gains being posted in Hungary and Poland, although Russia lost ground despite higher energy prices.
The S&P Emerging BMI declined by 3.78% while the S&P Developed BMI gained 1.19%.
Market Update
GCC Markets
Oil prices have recovered quite handsomely this year, which in the least provides floor to GCC economic outlook for this and next year. We expect, aggregate demand and capital investments to gradually improve next year across the region, which will be credit growth positive. This year, the windfall in oil receipts is mostly directed to repairing fiscal position rather than public spending to simulate demand. This balance will hopefully change going into 2019, if oil prices remain stable. A headwind of expat exodus, stagnant wages, rising inflation (mostly on VAT and cut in subsidies) and absence of incremental investments has resulted into GCC economies, most notably KSA operating at an output gap of atleast 3%. This will most likely improve next year with pent up demand across the board. Many GCC markets, particularly Oman and Dubai are trading at multi-year low valuation multiples, any positive change in investor sentiment and rising estimates for 2019/20 revenue and earnings growth could set these market for strong performance in 2019. Althogh Fund holdings in Oman and Dubai have caused our investors in performance, our stock selection in both countries represents deep value, high cashflow yields and ability to growth medium term earnings at steady and attractive rate. Exiting these positions just because of short term pain will not help long term performance which remains our main objective.
Globally, August was a tough month, with Emerging Market currencies under attack due to rising dollar, trade wars between US and China and rising crude oil prices. Most large EM economies, such as India, rely heavily on crude imports to meet their domestic energy needs. Higher energy import bill with rising USD can run havoc into their current account and hence sharp sell-off in EM currencies, stocks and bonds. GCC market in August had a rub-off effect from sell-off elsewhere, even though GCC current account has positive correlation to rising crude prices and strong dollar. We believe, after an early rally in KSA banking and petrochem sector this year, there is sizeable investor base ready to take profits which is opening some opportunities to deploy capital with eyes on economic recovery next year.
Vision Funds
Abu Dhabi, Oman & Qatar were the leading performers in the GCC markets for the month in the GCC markets. Saudi Arabia led the decline followed by Dubai, Bahrain and Kuwait. The Vision Emerging GCC Fund declined by 2.06% while the Vision Real Economy GCC Fund declined by 1.86%.
The Sharia focused Vision Al Khair GCC Fund declined by 0.55% for the month. Vision Focused Fund lost 2.62% for the month with its concentrated portfolio strategy.
The Vision Emerging Oman Fund gained 0.93% for the month.
Outlook
The MSCI announcement was a key news event which had a strong influence in the markets in the first half of the year. The second quarter results in the region have reflected a positive growth despite the challenges faced in individual countries in the GCC region. The positive oil price will provide a flexibility to government agencies in terms of their ongoing fiscal consolidation plans and managing their current accounts balances. This in turn will provide impetus to both the private and government sectors to go ahead with their targeting both additional revenues and expense optimization going forward.
Aug-18 YTD 2017 3 Year 5 YearSince
Inception
Ann.
Return
May, 2005 Vision Emerging GCC Fund * 14.31 37.14 -2.06% 3.62% -3.25% -2.13% 15.36% 125.89% 6.42%
August, 2007 Vision Emerging Oman Fund * 1.97 5.10 0.93% -5.92% -4.50% -7.77% -9.12% 17.51% 1.50%
April, 2010 Vision Real Economy GCC Fund * 8.66 22.48 -1.86% 5.40% -4.07% 1.33% 17.25% 77.31% 7.30%
May, 2013 Vision Al Khair GCC Fund * 8.81 22.86 -0.55% 3.57% -5.41% -6.87% 1.58% 5.62% 1.09%
January, 2017 Vision Focused Fund 2.29 5.94 -2.62% -0.92% -10.71% NA NA -11.48% NA
May, 2005 Vision Emerging GCC Fund * 15.95% 0.19
August, 2007 Vision Emerging Oman Fund * 13.79% -0.12
April, 2010 Vision Real Economy GCC Fund * 10.97% 0.50 NA NA NA NA NA 55 45
May, 2013 Vision Al Khair GCC Fund * 10.85% -0.16 28
1.08%
Sharpe
Ratio
(0.46)
77%0.99
Active
Return
Tracking
Error
Year of
Inception
4.13%
35
Mutual Fund
1.01
Returns Matrix
Losing
Months
Risk Matrix
AUM
(OMR mn)
AUM
(USD mn)
1.10 81%
(* Adjusted for dividends, assuming dividends are reinvested)
