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Vistra Analyst Day - Generation€¦ · Vistra Energy Analyst Day Presentation 2018 2,300 8,017...

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Generation Jim Burke Chief Operating Officer
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Page 1: Vistra Analyst Day - Generation€¦ · Vistra Energy Analyst Day Presentation 2018 2,300 8,017 4,042 3,455 0 17,814 2,300 4,500 7,838 3,539 180 18,356 Nuclear Coal CCGT Gas CT/ST

Generation

Jim BurkeChief Operating Officer

Page 2: Vistra Analyst Day - Generation€¦ · Vistra Energy Analyst Day Presentation 2018 2,300 8,017 4,042 3,455 0 17,814 2,300 4,500 7,838 3,539 180 18,356 Nuclear Coal CCGT Gas CT/ST

Vistra Energy Analyst Day Presentat ion 2018

VISTRA GENERATION OVERVIEW

2

Strong safety and

performance

focus with cost

and capital

discipline

Luminant and Dynegy

fleets organizationally

integrated and

operating as

one team

Expecting to deliver

$225mm incremental

run rate from OPI by end

of 2019; deeper

“in-the-money” asset position

We have repositioned the company, and are focused on integration

and delivering immediate and sustainable value creation

Safe, reliable,

low-cost generation

Running as

‘One Fleet’Delivering OPI value

Page 3: Vistra Analyst Day - Generation€¦ · Vistra Energy Analyst Day Presentation 2018 2,300 8,017 4,042 3,455 0 17,814 2,300 4,500 7,838 3,539 180 18,356 Nuclear Coal CCGT Gas CT/ST

Vistra Energy Analyst Day Presentat ion 2018

FLEET OVERVIEW

OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE INITIATIVE (OPI)

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Page 4: Vistra Analyst Day - Generation€¦ · Vistra Energy Analyst Day Presentation 2018 2,300 8,017 4,042 3,455 0 17,814 2,300 4,500 7,838 3,539 180 18,356 Nuclear Coal CCGT Gas CT/ST

Vistra Energy Analyst Day Presentat ion 2018

Coal

Natural Gas (CCGT)

Natural Gas & Oil (Peakers)

Nuclear

Solar

FLEET OVERVIEW

• ~15% of Generation

Adjusted EBITDA

• 4,730 MW

• Efficient CCGT fleet in a

gas constrained region

• Capacity pricing remains

significant

• ~33% of Generation

Adjusted EBITDA

• 10,821 MW

• Efficient CCGT fleet with

coal diversification

• PJM market provides strong

capacity revenues

CAISO

ERCOT

ISO-NE

PJM

NYISO

MISO

ISO states

1 2019E Adjusted EBITDA.

Vistra’s gas-predominant portfolio is the leading fleet in the desirable competitive power

markets, with a low-cost structure and significant earnings diversification

• ~47% of Generation adjusted EBITDA

• ~47% of Generation Adjusted EBITDA

• 18,356 MW

• Diversified fuel mix

• Best-in-class operations

ERCOT GENERATION (~$1.2 billion EBITDA)1

NE/NYISO (~$400mm EBITDA)1

PJM (~$800mm EBITDA)1

4

Page 5: Vistra Analyst Day - Generation€¦ · Vistra Energy Analyst Day Presentation 2018 2,300 8,017 4,042 3,455 0 17,814 2,300 4,500 7,838 3,539 180 18,356 Nuclear Coal CCGT Gas CT/ST

Vistra Energy Analyst Day Presentat ion 2018

2,300

8,017

4,042 3,455

0

17,814

2,3004,500

7,838

3,539

180

18,356

Nuclear Coal CCGT Gas CT/ST Solar Total

GENERATION FLEET – ERCOT

Solar

Natural Gas (Peakers)

Coal Natural Gas (CCGT)

Nuclear

Comanche Peak (2,300 MW):

Low-cost nuclear, young site

Oak Grove (1,600 MW):

Low-cost lignite, commercial

availability of 96%

Forney (1,912 MW):

Commercial availability of 97%

Midlothian (1,596 MW):

Recently upgraded

Martin Lake (2,250 MW):

Commercial availability of 97%

• 7 assets (Odessa, Midlothian, Forney, Lamar,

Martin Lake, Oak Grove, and Comanche Peak)

make up ~80% of projected ERCOT

Generation EBITDA

- CCGT commercial availability of 96%

- Coal commercial availability of 96%

- Comanche Peak runs at sub $25/MWh all-

in cost, with target of sub $23/MWh

• Basis of our OPI efforts across all fuel types,

with best practices shared across the fleet

April 2018December 2017

The ERCOT fleet has rotated primarily to gas, with remaining coal and nuclear advantaged

ERCOT FLEET SUMMARY

Fuel Diversification

Capacity, MW

5

Odessa (1,054 MW):

70%+ capacity factor

Lamar (1,076 MW):

Commercial availability of 98%

Page 6: Vistra Analyst Day - Generation€¦ · Vistra Energy Analyst Day Presentation 2018 2,300 8,017 4,042 3,455 0 17,814 2,300 4,500 7,838 3,539 180 18,356 Nuclear Coal CCGT Gas CT/ST

Vistra Energy Analyst Day Presentat ion 2018

96

46

Retail Generation

2

12

2

1

Retail Generation

ERCOT POSITIONING

The ERCOT portfolio is well-positioned to meet Retail demand

and take advantage of tight market conditions

Annual Net Energy Position

TWh – Projected 2019

Peak Hour Net Energy Position – P99 Weather1

GW

1 P99 weather represents extreme summer temperatures in DFW (108 degrees Fahrenheit in August). Generation position does not reflect any third-party hedges.

Load(includes

swing)

Peakers

Steamers

Coal / CCGT

Nuclear

43

142

11

18

6

Page 7: Vistra Analyst Day - Generation€¦ · Vistra Energy Analyst Day Presentation 2018 2,300 8,017 4,042 3,455 0 17,814 2,300 4,500 7,838 3,539 180 18,356 Nuclear Coal CCGT Gas CT/ST

Vistra Energy Analyst Day Presentat ion 2018

45%

55%

68%

32%

GENERATION FLEET – PJM

Coal

Natural Gas & Oil (Peakers)

Natural Gas (CCGT)

Capacity

paymentsGas

Coal

Kendall (1,288 MW):

Upgraded 7FA, strong

capacity revenue

Fayette (726 MW):

Upgraded 7FA with

80%+ capacity factor • Top 5 sites (Hanging Rock, Kendall, Fayette, Liberty, and

Washington) represent ~60% of projected PJM EBITDA

- CCGT commercial availability of 97%

- OPI opportunities for the gas fleet

• 1/3 of our PJM assets cleared above rest of RTO pricing,

yielding an average capacity price of ~$156/MW-day

• Miami Fort, Kincaid, Zimmer “in the money”; ~20% of

projected PJM EBITDA

– Coal commercial availability of 90%

– OPI opportunities at the coal fleet

PJM Fleet Summary

The PJM fleet is a predominant gas fleet, with a diversified revenue mix

and high commercial availability

Fuel Mix

% of Capacity

Revenue Mix

%

165

10077

140

18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22

Capacity Price

$/MW-day (PJM Rest of RTO)

Energy

margin

Hanging Rock (1,430 MW):

Upgraded 7FA with 75%+

capacity factor

7

Washington (711 MW):

Upgraded 7FA with

70%+ capacity factor

Liberty (607 MW):

Upgraded 7FA with

70%+ capacity factor

Page 8: Vistra Analyst Day - Generation€¦ · Vistra Energy Analyst Day Presentation 2018 2,300 8,017 4,042 3,455 0 17,814 2,300 4,500 7,838 3,539 180 18,356 Nuclear Coal CCGT Gas CT/ST

Vistra Energy Analyst Day Presentat ion 2018

35%

65%

GENERATION FLEET – NE/NY

Masspower

Bellingham NEA

8 CCGT sites – CT, MA, ME, and NY

• Commercial availability of 96%

• Two sites: Milford and Lake Road represent ~45% of

Adjusted EBITDA of the region

- Higher capacity payments, firm gas transport

- Higher capacity factors (“in-the-money”)

• Two sites: Bellingham and Blackstone represent ~30% of

Adjusted EBITDA

High-quality assets requiring low capital

• Key sites in the fleet have the latest upgrades installed,

improving unit performance

- Output, heat rate, durations between outages

- Improved cycling, with low unplanned outages

Positioned well in a tightening market:

• Expected retirement of ~30-35% of ISO-NE generating

capacity1

• Challenges acquiring permits for new generation,

transmission, and pipelines, coupled with uncertain

renewables build out

Lake Road (827 MW):

Recently upgraded,

strong capacity revenue

Bellingham (566 MW):

Recently upgraded,

good capacity revenue

Milford (600 MW):

Recently upgraded,

strong capacity revenue

Energy

Margin

Capacity

paymentsGas

1 Source: ISO-NE.

Independence (1,212 MW):

High energy margin, lower

capacity revenue

Blackstone (544 MW):

Recently upgraded,

good capacity revenue

Casco Bay (543MW):

Low energy margin,

good capacity revenue

NE/NYISO Fleet Summary

NE/NY assets generate high capacity payments and cash flow

100%

Fuel Mix

% of Capacity

Revenue Mix

%

8

Page 9: Vistra Analyst Day - Generation€¦ · Vistra Energy Analyst Day Presentation 2018 2,300 8,017 4,042 3,455 0 17,814 2,300 4,500 7,838 3,539 180 18,356 Nuclear Coal CCGT Gas CT/ST

Vistra Energy Analyst Day Presentat ion 2018

FLEET OVERVIEW

OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE INITIATIVE (OPI)

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Page 10: Vistra Analyst Day - Generation€¦ · Vistra Energy Analyst Day Presentation 2018 2,300 8,017 4,042 3,455 0 17,814 2,300 4,500 7,838 3,539 180 18,356 Nuclear Coal CCGT Gas CT/ST

Vistra Energy Analyst Day Presentat ion 2018

Min/Max/Ramp

Improved Generation

Outage Reduction

Heat Rate

O&M Procurement

Comanche Peak

Forney/Odessa/Lamar

Martin Lake

2018 2019 2020

OPI PROGRESS

Running OPI throughout Luminant and

legacy Dynegy plants

• OPI completed or underway across the

combined fleet

– Coal sites engaged site by site

– CCGT sites engaged lever by lever: current

focus on planned outage, with additional

levers1 following over the coming months

• Joppa: Optimizing load across units improves

heat rate by ~3% (~$900k); repurposing

unused dozers from elsewhere in the fleet

drives ~$600k annual savings

• Kendall: Improved heat rate through daily

performance management, better visibility into

key drivers for control room operators

($1.2mm annual savings)

• Procurement: Fleetwide sourcing for

scaffolding yielding 20%+ savings.

Consolidation of suppliers, scope definition, use

of alternatives (e.g. drones)

Projected OPI Value

Realizing OPI Potential ($mm)

$50

$225

$16051%

Legacy DYN - Coal

Legacy DYN - CCGT

Procurement

Luminant

1 Examples: spend control tower, heat rate.

OPI Progress

OPI is in full swing and already delivering value

$225mm

100%Percentage run

rate achieved by

year end

10

Page 11: Vistra Analyst Day - Generation€¦ · Vistra Energy Analyst Day Presentation 2018 2,300 8,017 4,042 3,455 0 17,814 2,300 4,500 7,838 3,539 180 18,356 Nuclear Coal CCGT Gas CT/ST

Vistra Energy Analyst Day Presentat ion 2018

Context

and

Action

OPI DEEP DIVE #1

Impact

293

66

468

109

2nd workshop

opportunity

Current hours

1st workshop

opportunity

Potential hours

• An ISO-NE plant has a Fall 2018 hot gas path and

generator major inspection outage scheduled for

~19 days

• Group conducted two brown paper exercises (i.e.,

structured process to challenge scope and duration)

to optimize the outage schedule

- The first was at the CCGT OPI kickoff, with nearly

40 CCGT leaders – plant GMs, ops & maintenance

managers, and plant engineers – from across the fleet

- The second, at the subject plant, was attended by

20 personnel from the region and contractors

• Parallel processing activities

- Disassemble generator at both ends at the

same time

- Install connective piping in parallel with

installing turbine enclosure

• Streamlining the critical path

- Conduct employment screening and

verification pre-outage

• Leveraging new technologies

- More effective cleaning techniques (ice

blasting or dry steam) for combustion turbine

rotor and cases

CCGT team employed “brown paper process” to shorten planned outage duration by 37%

Brown paper exercise in action, May 2018

11

Page 12: Vistra Analyst Day - Generation€¦ · Vistra Energy Analyst Day Presentation 2018 2,300 8,017 4,042 3,455 0 17,814 2,300 4,500 7,838 3,539 180 18,356 Nuclear Coal CCGT Gas CT/ST

Vistra Energy Analyst Day Presentat ion 2018

Context

• The POC provides centralized 24/7

real-time operations support

• Using IOT remote monitoring,

advanced modeling, and diagnostics,

the POC identifies and forecasts

emergent issues impacting power

production

• Emergent equipment issues are

addressed proactively by

communicating directly to plant control

room operators

Luminant’s Power Optimization Center partners with the plants for reliability/efficiency gains

OPI DEEP DIVE #2

12

Application

• POC will enable OPI efforts across the fleet

• Will be monitoring more than 400K sensors

throughout the fleet – temperature, pressure, acoustics,

and vibration data

– ~5,000 to 6,000 sensors per CCGT block or coal unit

– Approx. 50% of sensors throughout balance of plant

equipment (HRSG, condenser, cooling tower, etc.)

• Identify opportunities and work directly with the sites on

emerging issues

• More efficient spend management as well as optimizing

plant output

Gas Turbine

(3X CT)

Compressor

Generator

GeneratorElectrical

output to grid

Cooling Tower

Condenser

Steam

Turbine

Heat recovery

steam generator

Exhaust

gases

Feedwater in

Steam out

Air in Natural gas in

Heat Rate

2,550

200

550

225

225

45

100

700

800

Data stream health 550

Auxiliaries 150

Cross-cutting sensors

~6,000

Number of

sensors

Page 13: Vistra Analyst Day - Generation€¦ · Vistra Energy Analyst Day Presentation 2018 2,300 8,017 4,042 3,455 0 17,814 2,300 4,500 7,838 3,539 180 18,356 Nuclear Coal CCGT Gas CT/ST

Vistra Energy Analyst Day Presentat ion 2018

FLEET OVERVIEW

OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE INITIATIVE (OPI)

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Page 14: Vistra Analyst Day - Generation€¦ · Vistra Energy Analyst Day Presentation 2018 2,300 8,017 4,042 3,455 0 17,814 2,300 4,500 7,838 3,539 180 18,356 Nuclear Coal CCGT Gas CT/ST

Vistra Energy Analyst Day Presentat ion 2018

Safe, reliable, and low-cost generation

• Strong safety performance

• Cost and capital discipline

Running as “One Fleet”

Delivering OPI value

• Expecting to deliver $225mm of incremental run rate by end of 2019

• Deeper “in-the-money” asset position

KEY TAKEAWAYS

14

Page 15: Vistra Analyst Day - Generation€¦ · Vistra Energy Analyst Day Presentation 2018 2,300 8,017 4,042 3,455 0 17,814 2,300 4,500 7,838 3,539 180 18,356 Nuclear Coal CCGT Gas CT/ST

END SLIDE


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