Visualizing the2017 BC Election

Frank Hangler @hangler

Plot + Scatter @plotandscatter

Data for human consumption

http://plotandscatter.com/projects/canada-election-explorer/

Polling fails?

Canadian Federal ElectionOctober 2015

Data: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015

Data: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015

B.C. Provincial ElectionMay 2013

Data: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_general_election,_2013#Opinion_polls

Data: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_general_election,_2013#Opinion_polls

U.S. Presidential ElectionNovember 2016

Data: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016

Data: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016

“The only poll that counts is the one on

election day.”

Challenges when predicting with polls

1. Polling misses

2. Electoral system effects

Visualizing the2017 BC Elections

Visualization project goals

1. Show new BC electoral boundaries

2. Let users “predict” election results by entering poll numbers (simple swing-based model)

3. Visualize the electoral effects of polling randomness (margins of error)

2013

2017

Vote transposition data: https://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/2016/08/bcs-2013-elxn-on-new-boundaries-bcpoli.html

Swing-based model

*Most recent poll data: http://www.insightswest.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/ReportCardBCNov2016_Tables.pdf

2013 Results Polling* Difference

Liberals 46% 39% -7

NDP 42% 40% -2

2013 results 2017 projection*

Liberal NDP Winner Liberal NDP Winner

Riding A 43% 42% Liberal 43 - 7 = 36% 42 - 2 = 40% NDP

Riding B 37% 45% NDP 37 - 7 = 30% 45 - 2 = 43% NDP

http://rocknpoll.graphics

FiveThirtyEight 2016 Election Forecast

FiveThirtyEight 2016 Election Forecast

Polling MOE ± [3.5]------+-- [ 40 ] NDP-----+--- [ 39 ] Liberals-+------- [ 21 ] Other

[SIMULATE ELECTION]

British Columbia

Thank you!

Frank Hangler @hangler

Plot + Scatter @plotandscatter