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Vladimir Matveenko
Economic Growth and International Trade:
Role of Intermediate Goods
XIII Annual International Conference “Leontief Readings”,
St. Petersburg, 15 February 2014
Interpedendence
Leontief. Input-output production structure: intermediate goods are used to produce other intermediate goods.
Von Neumann – Gale model
Makarov and Rubinov (1973)
Rubinov, Borisov, Desnitskaya and Matveenko (1990)
Makarov, Levin and Rubinov (1995)
Interpedendence (continuation)
• Countries with relatively cheap labor (China, India, Eastern Europe) integrate into the World economy
• global production sharing• offshoring• fragmentation of production• global supply chains• comparative advantage at the component level• intrafirm trade
Interpedendence (continuation)
• Input-output ideology
Jones. Misallocation, economic growth, and input-output economics. NBER WP, 2011.
• Network economics
Acemoglu et al. The network origins of aggregate fluctuations. Econometrica, 2012.
“This paper argues that in the presence of intersector input-output linkages…”
• Network games with substitutability/submodularity or complementarity/supermodularuty
Interpedendence (continuation)
• Models of misallocation
Jones. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2011.
Banerjee and Moll, 2010
Fernald and Neiman, 2011
Epifani and Gancia, 2011
Restuccia and Rogerson 2012
• Intermediate goods in international trade
Yi. Can vertical specialization explain the growth of world trade? J. of Political Economy, 2003.
Eaton and Kortum. Technology, geography, and trade. Econometrica, 2002.
Alvarez and Lucas. General equilibrium analysis of the Eaton-Kortum model of international trade. J. of Monetary Economics, 2007.
Waugh. International trade and income differences. American Economic Review, 2007.
Ventura. Growth and interdependence. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1997
• Countries: j = 1,…,J• Endowments: Labor, Initial capital• Production of intermediate goods i=1,2
1 unit of labor produces units of product 1
1 unit of capital produces 1 unit of product 2 • Production of final good (GDP)
• Utility and budget constraint:
jA
,)(1
21bb
jbj xx 1b
0
)( )(ln dttce jtn
jjjjjj wkrnkkc
Ventura. Growth and interdependence. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1997
(continuation)
• “Conditional” factor price equalization corresponding to Trefler. International factor prices: Leontief was right! Journal of Political Economy, 1993
• If the average for the world per capita outputs of the intermediate products are A (product 1) and k (product 2) then
1pAw jj 2pr j
bAkpp 121 )/(/
Ventura. Growth and interdependence. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1997
(continuation)
• World economy equilibrium dynamics
• Natural question: What is the dependence between degree of complementarity and the growth rate?
Ventura: Sustainable development for high
1b
11
)( bb
bbb kkA
с
с
cnkkAk bbb /1)(
Recent interest to important economic measures•Total factor productivity. •Elasticity of factor substitution – labor and capital. Pitchford, J.D., “Growth and the Elasticity of Substitution,” Economic Record 36 (1960), 491-503.•Direction of technological progress and relation to institutions. •Role of intermediate goods in formation of aggregate economic measures•Dependence of the aggregate TFP on the TFPs of sectors•Misallocation•Relation of the aggregate elasticity of substitution and the elasticities of substitution in sectors•Dependence of the growth rate of the economy on the TFPs and elasticiries of substitution in sectors and the structure of production in sectors
In complex economic systems•High interrelation of agents and complex interactions across them•Special role of externalities •Complementarity of activities•Intermediate products (among them ideas)
Complementarity of intermediate goods in production (possible model: Leontief function or a system of
Leontief functions).
Complementarity of ideas (different types of
knowledge)
•Complementarity Weak links Misallocation
3-sector model of general equilibrium with intermediate goods
Miyagiwa K. and Papageorgiou C. 2007. Endogenous aggregate elasticity of substitution.
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control Xue J. and Yip C.K. 2013. Aggregate elasticity of
substitution and economic growth: A synthesis. Journal of Macroeconomics.
• Intermediate goods i=1,2 are produced by use of
capital and human capital
The intermediate goods are used too produce the final good:
2,1),,( iLKFAс iiii
),( 21 ccRY
3-sector model of general equilibrium with intermediate goods
(continuation)
• Distribution of capital and labor between sectors
• Consider the case when the aggregation function has the form
LLLKKK 2121 ,
/1
2211 tt XXBY
)1,0()0,(,0 B 01 02
3-sector model of general equilibrium with intermediate goods
(continuation)
• Two known specifications of the CES function
1)
2)• Question: How does the final product depend on
the elasticity of factor substitution? • Unexpected result: the absence of robustness on
functional form
121 1,0,0 2121
/1
2211 tt XXBY
4-sector model of general equilibrium with intermediate goods
We develop the approach of Jones, 2011. Intermediate goods and weak links in the theory of economic
development. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
• Basic goods i=1,2 are produced by use of capital,
human capital and intermediate goods
The basic goods are used in production of the final good and the aggregate of intermediate goods:
2,1),,,( iXHKFAQ iiiii
iii zcQ
),( 21 ccRY ),( 21 zzSX
Y.Martemyanov, V.Matveenko. 2014:
• Natural question: What is the dependence between degree of complementarity and the growth rate?
• In all three models we come to the absence of robustness to functional form.
0,0,0,)]([)1(
1
1
ijij
pn
j
pjijiji AptxAtx
Model of development with positive externalities
Matveenko. Journal of Policy Modeling 1995
• N economic agents
For martix any trajectory leads to a
cyclic growth
Для матрицы any trajectory leads to a stationary
state
x a x t i nti
ii ti
1 01 1( ) ( ) , , , ...; , ..., ;x a x tti
ij tj
1 01( ) ( ) , , , ...,
min,
01.11
101.1A
01.11
01.11A
tt Axx 1
)()(1 min j
tijj
it xax
Conclusion
• In the interdependent world a special role is played by the elasticity of substitution of intermediate goods and other parameters of the production function
• They depend on policies and institutions• A change in parameters easily leads to a change
in measures of development – in such way the last crisis can be explained
• Under big complementarities, a complex dynamics dominates
• A challenge for such models is accounting for differences in institutions, technologies and tastes