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Volta Storylines and Scenarios: A mouthpiece for interventions
that enhance livelihoods
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F. Kizito, J. Barron, L. Davelaar, S. Douxchamps, O. Cofie, K. Minong , VBDC PLs
VBDC Science WorkshopJuly 2012
Study background
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background methods project status next steps
Methodology: oStudy is being conducted at multiple scales across the Volta BasinoRelevant system drivers have been identifiedoRisk, vulnerability and adaptive framework developed
Project Objective: To isolate storylines based on past and present research coupled with farmers narratives, to identify common threads and interventions that could provide various contexts for exploring AWMi for improved livelihoods of various communities
Project Outcome: oCompelling consistent threads of storylines and scenariosoStorylines and scenarios yield innovative ideas which can be transformed into realistic and viable interventions that enhance livelihoods across multiple scales
Study backgroundStudy background
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background
Study Sites
Bougouriba (V4)
Study area covers 6 watersheds within the Volta Basin with some watersheds sharing the border between with Ghana and Burkina Faso. The chosen watersheds currently have on-going work within the VBDC.(Note: Boura and Binaba are not to scale)
Boura (V3)
Binaba (V3)
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background
Justification Drivers on the Basin are predicted to increase the frequency and severity of
extreme events such as droughts and flooding which in turn have various social and environmental consequences
Interventions that focus on integrated water resources management serve as viable and promising adaptation mechanisms that reduce future risk and vulnerability
This calls for an assessment framework to characterize the risks associated with the Volta Basin in order to evaluate viable options or interventions for reducing vulnerability.
Evaluate on-going projects
with associated uncertainties
Evaluate on-going projects
with associated uncertainties
Evaluate viable interventions for reducing
vulnerabilities
Evaluate viable interventions for reducing
vulnerabilities
Characterize key risks and
vulnerabilities
Characterize key risks and
vulnerabilities
Robust adaptive
management
Robust adaptive
management
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background
Conceptual FrameworkPreliminaryStorylines
Scenarios
External Internal
Markets
Policies
Institutions
Information
Technology
Resources
Basin Drivers Determinants
Global Drivers
Regional Drivers
Political, Economic, Environmental, Demographic, Technological
Community Drivers
HouseholdLevel Drivers
V2
V3
V4
V2
V3
V4
V5
V1 Worst case
Bearable
Present case(Status Quo)
Best case
Risks, Vulnerability& Adaptation levels
Very high
High
Low
Moderate
Viable interventions and modified storylines
V2
V3V4
V5
V1
VBDC Research Outcome
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The process is not linear; highly depends on the drivers which yield preliminary storylines. These are assessed against a set of scenarios and evaluated for risk and vulnerability to yield viable storylines and pertinent interventions
background
Methodology
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Wat
ersh
eds
Spatial Data
Non Spatial Data
Land Use/ Land CoverHydrology
Climatic dataSoils
Drought risk indexErosion risk index
Flood exposure index
Gender DimensionsDisease prevalenceEducation/ literacy
Human Dev’t indicators
Protected AreasTransportation/Roads
PopulationMarket AccessPoverty index
Biophysical Socio-econom
ic
Hydrologically corrected DEM
Arc SWAT Model
AspectDrainage
Watersheds
Database at Watershed Level
Weightage and Ranking of each indicator, sub-indicator and proxy indicator
Combined Sensitivity indexCombined Adaptive Capability IndexCombined Risk/Exposure Index
Vulnerability Assessment and MappingBased on weightage accorded to Sensitivity, Exposure and Adaptive Capability
Slope
Storylines and scenarios with potential viable interventions
XLRM Framework & Tradeoff analysis
-Far
mer
s’ n
arra
tives
-On-
goin
g re
sear
ch-S
econ
dary
dat
a-V
olta
Bas
in S
tart
er K
it-C
PWF
Phas
e I r
esul
ts
methods
The XLRM Framework
Framework structures analysis around key uncertainties, adaptation options, performance metrics, and analytical relationships
X: eXogenous factors (uncertain)/ Scenarios L: Levers These are factors that are outside our control and form a basis for “Scenarios”
These serve as management strategies or response packages/options for example they show:
- Current conditions - Adaptation Options
R: Relationships M: Performance Metrics These are relationships or models that estimate outcomes or performance metrics (M) for strategies or interventions (L) under specific scenarios (X)
These are natural resources related outcomes of interest e.g. evaluation criteria, supply reliability, market access or environmental integrity
The XLRM framework will aid in vulnerability assessment8
methods
Tradeoff quadrant
Lose-LoseWin-Lose
Win-LoseWin-Win
VBD
C Im
pact
Uncertainty
High
Low
HighLow
Conducted during vulnerability assessment
methods
Vulnerability Assessment Indicators
Sensitivity Analysis: the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli
Exposure/Risk Analysis: the nature and degree to which a system is exposed to significant climatic variations
Adaptive Capacity Analysis: the ability of a system to adjust to climate change
Vulnerability = f (sensitivity, exposure, adaptive capacity)
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methods
Watershed Sensitivity Assessment Indicators
Parameters Direct indicators Proxy indicators
Biophysical
Land Use and Land Cover (LULC)
Protected area coverageSoils Topography (slope, aspect)
Drainage densityDominant climate
Human Population
.
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methods
Parameters Direct indicators Proxy indicators
Temperature and rainfall
Mean seasonal temperature trend
Mean seasonal rainfall trend
Flood
Death
InjuredProperty lossOccurrencePositive annual rainfall trend
Drought/flood risk index
Daily precipitation Population pressure on forest landFood surplus and deficiency
Human ecologyReproductive rate Human poverty indexLife expectancy Accessibility
Physical ecology Land cover densitySurface soil erosionLandscape degradation
Watershed Risk/Exposure Assessment Indicators
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methods
Parameters Direct indicators Proxy indicators
Socioeconomic
Human development index Human poverty indexGender development indexHuman empowerment index
Infrastructure*Road length Cell phoneElectricity presence
Technology
Irrigated land area Existence of soil and water conservation interventions e.g. terraced areas
Watershed Adaptive Capability Assessment Indicators
*Some of the socio-economic indicators take into account infrastructure presence
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methods
Example of XLRM Framework ApplicabilityEmerging Storylines
ScenariosBasin Drivers Determinants Risks, Vulnerability& Adaptation levels
Viable interventions & Modified storylines
Low soil fertility in landscapes Impacting V2, V3 and V4communities
X L
MoFA has fertilizer Subsidy and ImprovedSeed variety arrangements
Degraded soil and water resourcesLow crop yieldsInsufficient livestock feed LR, M
Communities notTaking part inInitiatives orSimplyopt for traditional Low technology methods
Less risk and vulnerability with higher adaptive capacity and resilience
Increased risk and vulnerability with low adaptive capacity
-Promising outcomes: improve soil fertility, higher crop yields and sufficient livestock feed-Strategies that enhance livelihoods copied or embraced neighboring communities
Communities embark onSoil-water conservationTechnologies, receive subsidies and improved seed and embark on interventions
L, R, M
M M
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methods
Project Update and Status
The VSS will continue enhancing VBDC project integration by framing research to current project needs within the scope of the project
Last month, a field trip was conducted to capture farmers narratives in the Northern region in the V2 sites
The next sites to be visited include: V3 and V4 sites in Burkina Faso in July
Current work products: Functional Project Blog for information sharing Past and present literature sources on Volta Basin Research (posted on blog) Field photos, farmers videos with narratives/stories Continued research framing to current needs
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project status
Emerging community dynamics
Identified common drivers and determinants among the four communities
o Demographic impacto Role of technologyo Impact of climate and crop varietieso Indigenous knowledge: e.g. use of inorganic Vs organic manures
Identified differences in communities in terms of resources, market access, cultural norms, coping mechanisms and adaptation strategies
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project status
Conclusion
Narratives from upcoming visit will complement on-going assessment
Study will endeavor to incorporate essential elements of the XLRM framework in order to ensure a holistic approach
Vulnerability assessment maps are being developed to complement emerging storylines and scenarios for each watershed dependent on data availability
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project status
Identified gaps
Emphasis should be placed on linkages between vulnerability and resilience assessment an aspect critical for achieving the VBDC
An integrated perspective that combines a top down and bottom up approach should be sought to incorporate farmers narratives with other policy and biophysical inputs
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next steps
Next steps
Complete field visits for V3 and V4 sites
Continue conducting vulnerability assessment as a proxy for resilience evaluation in the basin
Relate resilience to emerging storylines an aspect that would help VBDC project integration by framing research to current project needs
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next steps
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Conceptual FrameworkGlobal drivers
Determinants
STORYLINES SCENARIOS
Priorities / viable interventions
Robust adaptive management / VBDC outcomes
• Farmers narrative• Past research• Literature• VBDC research
• XLRM• Trade-off analysis• vulnerability maps
Vulnerability/ Resilience
assessment
evaluation
background