Date post: | 19-Jan-2016 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | stella-wells |
View: | 256 times |
Download: | 0 times |
Voting, Campaigns, and Elections
Elections and Democracy
Prospective (or Responsible Party) Voting Model
Electoral Competition Voting Model
Retrospective (or Reward and Punishment) Voting Model
Imperfect Electoral Democracy
Prospective (or Responsible Party) Voting Model
Theory Parties must be cohesive and unified Parties must take different policy
stands Voters must perceive these policy
stands Winning party must do what it said
Potential Problems Intense, heated conflict Gridlock Priorities
Voting in the United States
Expansion of the Franchise
Low Voting Turnout
White male suffrage Property, taxpaying, and
religion barriers Dropped by 1829
At the polls10.
Expansion of the Franchise
Blacks, women, and young people Fifteenth Amendment (1870) Voting Rights Act (1965) Nineteenth Amendment (1920)
Direct partisan elections Presidential electors elected Seventeenth Amendment (1913)
Low Voting Turnout
Barriers to voting Registration “Motor Voter” law (1996) Picture ID requirements
Low Voting Turnout
Too much complexity
Decline in competitive elections
Weak voter mobilization by local parties
Other possibilities
FIGURE 10.2: Rise and fall of turnout in presidential elections, 1789-2012
Why is voter turnout lower in America than in most other democratic countries?
a. Registration can be a hassle
b. Many elections are not
competitive
c. Elections are held on a
weekday
d. All of the above
Who Votes?
Income and Education
Race and Ethnicity
Age
Gender
Does It Matter Who Votes?
Income and Education
Higher income = more likely to vote
More years of education = greater likelihood of voting Chief indicator
Why the correlation?
Race and Ethnicity
Nearly equal numbers of blacks and whites vote Gaps due to income, education
Latino voting increasing Low income, language barriers Fewer eligible voters registered
FIGURE 10.3: Congressional election turnout by social group, 2012 elections
Age
Older = more likely to vote Turnout highest for over 65 age group Lowest for under 25 age group
Why low turnout for youth? Less rooted in communities Less in habit of voting Less clear on stakes of election Less familiar with procedures
Mobilizing the youth vote
Gender
Gender gap disappeared by 1980s Women vote at higher rates than men
Progress in gender equality responsible Education, income
10.4
© 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
Does It Matter Who Votes?
Do policy preferences of non-voters differ? Misleading studies showed they do not
Demographics differ Poor are non-voters
Which hypothetical citizen is most likely to vote?
a. A white man with a high school
diploma
b. A black woman with a graduate
degree
c. A white man with a college
degree
d. A Latino woman with a GED
© 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
Gaining the Nomination
Who has a chance? Sitting president presumptive nominee Rich, older white men Governors and Congressmen, VPs Mainstream
Getting started Exploratory committee 2-3 years out Fund-raising and public financing
Gathering votes
Gaining the Nomination
Presidential primaries and caucuses Open or closed primaries Early wins establish momentum Front-loading primaries
Public face of party conventions
General Election Campaign
Getting the campaign up and running Campaign begins earlier today Focus on battleground states Attack ads Micro-targeting
Informing voters Issues Past performance Personal characteristics
10.5
Obama on the campaign trail
FIGURE 10.4: Growth in spending in presidential elections
Money in General Elections
Hard money Individuals Candidates Political Action Committees (PACs) Political parties
TABLE10.1: Hard money contribution limits 2013-2014
Money in General Elections
Public funding
Other money 527s 501s
Getting “Swift Boated”
Money in General Elections
Other money Super PACs-Play an increasingly
significant role.
Does money talk? Money grants access Money grants influence Money-givers have different interests
How Voters Decide
Social characteristics Major determinant of voter choice
Party loyalties Shortcut
Candidates Image over substance
Issues Retrospective voting
Presidential vote in 2012, by social group
Electoral College
Winner-take-all in most states Except Maine and Nebraska
Features of Electoral College Magnifies popular support of winners May let less popular candidate win Discourages third parties
TABLE 10.2: Election results, 1980-2012
© 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
Discussion Questions
Do elections ensure popular control of government? Why or why not? How does who votes and who doesn’t vote influence the type of government policies we get?